Folklore Winter Forecast and Wet Look Ahead
Good Wednesday everybody! Boy... we have a ton of weather to go through over the next several days and we have talked about all that for several days now. Our weather for this Wednesday is going to be nothing short of awesome so enjoy it before we get into a stormy pattern. More on that in a bit.
It's the time of year many people start looking ahead to fall and winter and wondering what kind of winter is in store for us. I have posted several loooong range models in recent weeks that suggest it's going to be a cold one. The farmers almanac is going for "numbing cold" for much of the country as well. Now we can add one of the finest folklore forecasters in the world to that "cold" list... and her is from right here in Kentucky. Dick Frymire has been making winter forecasts for more than 30 years. He bases his forecasts on various "barnyard" methods and has been featured nationally on many occasions.
Here is an article I came across from a weather board that I thought you may enjoy... especially the headline and second page...
It's a lot of fun to follow along with Mr. Frymire's forecasts. I have been doing it since I was a kid and it is something I really look forward to each year. I know... I need a life!
Now... about the weather around here. Our Wednesday is wonderful before our weather turns ugly with the chance for a lot of rain around here.
Highs today will be in the mid to upper 70s with mainly sunny skies for most after some morning fog. Southeastern Ky will likely have more in the way of clouds and even the risk for a stray shower or storm.
Thursday will feature a return of tropical air to the state on a southwesterly wind. Highs will warm into the lower 80s with scattered showers and storms going up during the afternoon.
Showers and storms will become widespread Thursday night and Friday and this will likely continue into Saturday. Several waves of storms will be likely meaning the threat for very heavy rains will be with us. With a tropical air mass in place combining with a stalled out front near the Ohio River... excessive rainfall will be a possibility as well. I also will be watching for the threat for some strong thunderstorms during this time.
The front is likely to attempt to lift to the north at some point late Saturday into Sunday. This may give us a very warm and humid period with only some scattered storms. How much of a period is up in the air and we won't be able to nail it down for a few more days.
After Sunday... it's all about what happens to the remnants of Hurricane Ike. Before I get into that... you can track Ike right here...
Ike is likely to be a major hurricane when it hits Texas Friday night. A deep trough will be digging into the plains over the weekend and can easily pick up Ike and swing it toward our region by Monday. It could also miss it and leave it behind for a few days.
The European Model has been saying for several runs now that the trough catches Ike and lifts the storm into the OV. Here are some maps from the European to show what I am talking about. I did a little art work on them for you to better understand...
EURO Monday Morning
The European model has had some friends showing similar outcomes. If the above maps verify... we would be looking at a lot of wind and rain come Sunday night and Monday. We will continue to watch it.
The GFS continues to waffle on what to do with Ike after it comes ashore. Anyone using one run of the GFS to base a forecast on in this pattern is nothing short of lazy. The blog will be on GFS Forecaster Watch over the next few days!!!
Lost in all the shuffle is a shot of chilly air moving in late Monday into the middle of next week!
Lots of information in the post... I hope you found something you liked. Take care my friends and we will chat again later Today or Tonight.
It's the time of year many people start looking ahead to fall and winter and wondering what kind of winter is in store for us. I have posted several loooong range models in recent weeks that suggest it's going to be a cold one. The farmers almanac is going for "numbing cold" for much of the country as well. Now we can add one of the finest folklore forecasters in the world to that "cold" list... and her is from right here in Kentucky. Dick Frymire has been making winter forecasts for more than 30 years. He bases his forecasts on various "barnyard" methods and has been featured nationally on many occasions.
Here is an article I came across from a weather board that I thought you may enjoy... especially the headline and second page...
It's a lot of fun to follow along with Mr. Frymire's forecasts. I have been doing it since I was a kid and it is something I really look forward to each year. I know... I need a life!
Now... about the weather around here. Our Wednesday is wonderful before our weather turns ugly with the chance for a lot of rain around here.
Highs today will be in the mid to upper 70s with mainly sunny skies for most after some morning fog. Southeastern Ky will likely have more in the way of clouds and even the risk for a stray shower or storm.
Thursday will feature a return of tropical air to the state on a southwesterly wind. Highs will warm into the lower 80s with scattered showers and storms going up during the afternoon.
Showers and storms will become widespread Thursday night and Friday and this will likely continue into Saturday. Several waves of storms will be likely meaning the threat for very heavy rains will be with us. With a tropical air mass in place combining with a stalled out front near the Ohio River... excessive rainfall will be a possibility as well. I also will be watching for the threat for some strong thunderstorms during this time.
The front is likely to attempt to lift to the north at some point late Saturday into Sunday. This may give us a very warm and humid period with only some scattered storms. How much of a period is up in the air and we won't be able to nail it down for a few more days.
After Sunday... it's all about what happens to the remnants of Hurricane Ike. Before I get into that... you can track Ike right here...
![[Image of 5-day forecast of predicted track, and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]](http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0908W5_sm2+gif/211731W_sm.gif)
Ike is likely to be a major hurricane when it hits Texas Friday night. A deep trough will be digging into the plains over the weekend and can easily pick up Ike and swing it toward our region by Monday. It could also miss it and leave it behind for a few days.
The European Model has been saying for several runs now that the trough catches Ike and lifts the storm into the OV. Here are some maps from the European to show what I am talking about. I did a little art work on them for you to better understand...
EURO Monday Morning
The European model has had some friends showing similar outcomes. If the above maps verify... we would be looking at a lot of wind and rain come Sunday night and Monday. We will continue to watch it.
The GFS continues to waffle on what to do with Ike after it comes ashore. Anyone using one run of the GFS to base a forecast on in this pattern is nothing short of lazy. The blog will be on GFS Forecaster Watch over the next few days!!!
Lost in all the shuffle is a shot of chilly air moving in late Monday into the middle of next week!
Lots of information in the post... I hope you found something you liked. Take care my friends and we will chat again later Today or Tonight.
Chris
Will look forward to the unsettled weather. The weather has been so unbelievable boring this summer. Earlier this year, it was great!
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Thanks for the fork lore article. I find the old wives tales and forcasting interesting. I agree with MarkLex, we have had boring weather this summer. The heat and humidity wasn't as hot as last year, but with no air at work what's a few degrees. We've had little rain so no news there. So maybe by winter we'll have more to talk about, hopefully!!!
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GM All. Gas prices here went from 3.49 to 3.75 while I was in line for gas. Luckily they let me have it for 3.49
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Thanks Chris for the update...looks like my ten-year high school reunion will be wet.
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Morning gang, I am definetly ready for Frost,, My experience with the Hornets yesterday is nothing I want to experience anytime soon again !!! I say FREEZE THEM SUCKERS OUT !!.............
Marklex.. I'm with you on the boring weather, I think we have another severe weather season in the fall as well, but I'm well ready to see snow fly instead of tree limbs and Hail stones by then..lol..
William... 10 yr. reunion.. you makin me feel old, I'll be having a 20 yr. reunion in 2010...
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I hope we have a snowy winter also! Nothing more beautiful than waking up to snow covered ground.
And I'll be attending my 30 YEAR reunion next July...... So I feel really old.
Have a great day everyone, even if it is boring weather-wise......
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Pam you are only as old as you feel lol!!! That makes me 100 lol!!!!! I love the cool weather today i have seen a little drizzle mostly just cloudy.Does anyone know why the hurricane is moving so slow????????
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Here is a great link about hurricane Ike and evacuations please read!!!!!
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26637482/
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Crystal..Did you have a fun birthday party?
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Figures that I have tickets to the Ryder Cup on Wednesday and Ike may be sitting right on top of us by then.
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Apparently the latest GDFL model run on Ike has shifted the landfall north to Houston/Galveston. The NHC will probably bring the cone north at 5:00. Not a good scenario.
Loved the first taste of fall last night and this morning!
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feederband -- uh oh, my mom lives just west of Houston. She's as stubborn as a mule and won't evacuate no matter how big Ike gets. Is this latest track just one model or a consensus? Time for me to start nagging Mom!
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Chris, thanks for posting Frymire's winter forecast. I grew up near Houston and there was a farmer who claimed his cow could predict the weather better than the local meteorologists. KPRC TV's weatherman, Doug Johnson, took the challenge and they had a contest over a few weeks. The cow won. The farmer became so famous that he went on the "Tonight Show" with Johnny Carson.
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That's hilarious!!!!!!!! I remember when Cindy Prezler was shown up by a wooly worm!! LOL She had fun with it, though.
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Thanks Chris..... it will sure be nice to get some rain this week, but what will be the kickoff forecast at Commonwealth saturday evening?
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Ike
Last Visible of the Day
http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satellite/displaySat.php?region=GULF&isingle=mult_big&itype=vis
Infrared
http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satellite/displaySat.php?region=GULF&isingle=mult_big&itype=ir
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rb.html
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. IKE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY
THURSDAY.
IKE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 947 MB...27.96 INCHES.
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KP, she needs to go for this one. The GFDL has this thing going just south of Galveston. Models Bring it in just south of Galveston as a borderline 4-5. Aside from what a catastrophe that would be for Galveston, the west side of Houston will get the eye. Even 80 miles inland it will probably have winds of over 110 mph. Tell her to go west. Unless things change, which is possible, this is virtually her worst case scenario. Serious.
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Yes, I know!!!!
She was sent something from ImpactWeather.com which showed she will be in winds over 80 mph for an extended period of time, with gusts up to 110 mph. That was as of yesterday and I'm not sure what Ike has done lately -- probably gotten bigger and stronger. I am telling her to throw the animals in the car and head west.
Thanks, feederband!
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time will tell with ike i just hope people takes things seriously down there.
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Argh, I'm pulling my racecar to Topeka KS on Monday, I hope it's not windy
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Chris I have been trying to contact you about our experience with Gustav up close and personal. It wasn't too bad where we were but we did get some weather from it. I will try to contact you or you can contact us.
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