Halloween Weekend Weather
Good Friday everyone and welcome to the much anticipated Halloween weekend. The weather is going to change quite a bit from where we are today to where we end things on Sunday. All of this will be courtesy of a strong cold front making it's way across the region. Could this front spell doom and gloom for trick or treaters on Saturday? Let's get into it.
Today is going to be a very windy and warm day across the state. Highs will be warming toward the low and perhaps mid 70s across the central and eastern parts of the state. The farther east, the warmer as clouds won't be as thick. Regardless of the exact temp where you live... it is going to be a warm Friday!
The front will move in later tonight and bring with it a band of showers and thunderstorms. You will be able to track the rains right here...
Halloween Saturday has been a day of much forecasting angst of late as the models have all struggled mightily with how fast this front blows through. The progressive models are going to win the battle as the front swings through very early Saturday with high temps coming at 12:01am Saturday. From that point... temps will be falling through most of the day. The rains look to end from west to east during the afternoon and evening hours for most areas. This should give many areas some decent trick or treat weather. The NAM model is in the camp that a low may form along the front to our south and east Saturday night keeping the rain in most areas of eastern Kentucky into early Sunday. Take a look...
Saturday Evening
Sunday Morning
That has a shot at happening... and is something to watch for. The GFS has come around to the progressive frontal passage instead of blowing up some big low over us and taking it toward the lakes like it had been showing. The new run has the second low but forms it farther east
Again... we will have to watch to see if this low can fire up close enough to give us a cold rain Saturday night into Sunday. Stay tuned!
How about the temps for Halloween? I mentioned the highs would come just after the clock strikes 12 and that will indeed be the case. Temps will fall toward the upper 40s and low 50s for much of the daylight hours for Halloween and then drop into the mid 40s for trick or treaters and for those heading out to Commonwealth Stadium for the Cats game. Here is what the GFS is showing for temps at that time...
Beyond that...
- November starts off with a seasonal chilly with highs upper 40s to low 50s for Sunday. Again... keep an eye on the possible 2nd low. If it is near us... temps will be colder because of showers and clouds.
- A second system will dive in Monday night and early Tuesday with little in the way of weather. Highs Monday will be in the low to mid 50s and fall to the upper 40s to low 50s Tuesday when a passing shower would be possible.
- The middle and end of next week will see seasonal temps in the 50s for highs and lows near 30. Watch for a second push of colder air coming in by the end of next week into the following weekend. The GFS is starting to "warm up" to this idea...
Friday November 6th
It is funny to watch this model go from coast to coast warmth for all of next week to now giving us temps that never get above the 50s for highs.
As I have said... el nino winters are rough on the poor old GFS. The other models will have their fair share as well and the last run of the European model proved that. See... I can bash all the models! 
I am strongly looking over the month of November right now and MIGHT be picking up on an early start to winter near turkey day. I will have the November outlook on late this weekend so be looking for that. I will pick a date for the winter forecast to come out as well and I am shooting for mid November.
Winter has already started for much of the country. I found some amazing video from near Denver and it might have you up dancing some as you check out the snowy scenes...
Today is going to be a very windy and warm day across the state. Highs will be warming toward the low and perhaps mid 70s across the central and eastern parts of the state. The farther east, the warmer as clouds won't be as thick. Regardless of the exact temp where you live... it is going to be a warm Friday!
The front will move in later tonight and bring with it a band of showers and thunderstorms. You will be able to track the rains right here...
Halloween Saturday has been a day of much forecasting angst of late as the models have all struggled mightily with how fast this front blows through. The progressive models are going to win the battle as the front swings through very early Saturday with high temps coming at 12:01am Saturday. From that point... temps will be falling through most of the day. The rains look to end from west to east during the afternoon and evening hours for most areas. This should give many areas some decent trick or treat weather. The NAM model is in the camp that a low may form along the front to our south and east Saturday night keeping the rain in most areas of eastern Kentucky into early Sunday. Take a look...
Saturday Evening
Sunday Morning
That has a shot at happening... and is something to watch for. The GFS has come around to the progressive frontal passage instead of blowing up some big low over us and taking it toward the lakes like it had been showing. The new run has the second low but forms it farther east
Again... we will have to watch to see if this low can fire up close enough to give us a cold rain Saturday night into Sunday. Stay tuned!
How about the temps for Halloween? I mentioned the highs would come just after the clock strikes 12 and that will indeed be the case. Temps will fall toward the upper 40s and low 50s for much of the daylight hours for Halloween and then drop into the mid 40s for trick or treaters and for those heading out to Commonwealth Stadium for the Cats game. Here is what the GFS is showing for temps at that time...
Beyond that...
- November starts off with a seasonal chilly with highs upper 40s to low 50s for Sunday. Again... keep an eye on the possible 2nd low. If it is near us... temps will be colder because of showers and clouds.
- A second system will dive in Monday night and early Tuesday with little in the way of weather. Highs Monday will be in the low to mid 50s and fall to the upper 40s to low 50s Tuesday when a passing shower would be possible.
- The middle and end of next week will see seasonal temps in the 50s for highs and lows near 30. Watch for a second push of colder air coming in by the end of next week into the following weekend. The GFS is starting to "warm up" to this idea...
Friday November 6th
It is funny to watch this model go from coast to coast warmth for all of next week to now giving us temps that never get above the 50s for highs.
As I have said... el nino winters are rough on the poor old GFS. The other models will have their fair share as well and the last run of the European model proved that. See... I can bash all the models! I am strongly looking over the month of November right now and MIGHT be picking up on an early start to winter near turkey day.
I will have the November outlook on late this weekend so be looking for that. I will pick a date for the winter forecast to come out as well and I am shooting for mid November.Winter has already started for much of the country. I found some amazing video from near Denver and it might have you up dancing some as you check out the snowy scenes...
I will have another update later this afternoon so check back. Take care.
So has anybody found out yet why LMK is issuing the zone forecast product for each individual county now? I HATE that. I think the Charleston office has been doing that forever...now Louisville is! Arg!
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no wxman but yes that is annoying i hope it doesnt last long.
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Latest temperature reading at CVG (Covington) is 72. That's the first time over 70 this month up here. Not sure if that is some kind of record or not, however...
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76° right now in Bardstown-winds up to 26mph...pretty nice out there!
Still looking for our first snowfall somewhere between the 14th-20th of Nov... I'm getting antsy.
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Looks like many areas will hit 80 today! Record highs for October? The WRF model shows us crashing into the upper 40s by morning!
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WX are you the one who think you know it all.
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A half dozen people give their opinions on this blog, and yet for some reason you criticize me? Any explanation?
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Thats an uncalled for post IMO. I never seen where he thinks he knows it all, esp. the post in question????? He posts good info I think.
I appreciate all the info he posts along with all the other weather guys that post- Mitch, MJ, Shane.
Keep posting the useful WX info Wxman!
Thanks CB for always being on top of things and keeping us updated everyday, even multiple times a day!
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Geez guys do we all need some snow? Yes I think we do....WXman needs a brake unless Chris the man puts a squeeze on him.
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Can you all please keep the constant trashing other people to yourselves, this is not directed at any one person, but over the past week or so, it has gotten quite ridiculous. It is very childish and not needed, this is an open weather blog to discuss your opinion on weather, not your opinion on someone elses' opinion. I'm off my soapbox, thank you.
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Agreed.
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If your welcome to your opinion of other people we are welcome to ours i certainly didn't know you were the blog police around here Adam
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Andy that's great
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You guys can have your 36 inches of snow. Extreme warmth like today is what I live for...although I realize there usually is a price to pay for it.
78 at CVG as of 2pm. The record is 83 set back in 1927. That seems safe as of now.
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Yep...80 degrees at my house. Winds howling hard.
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I have no opinion of any weather we have this yr it could snow knee deep to a Giraffe or it could be 120 degrees and no rain for a month i like reading people's ideas but i'm just not concerned with what its doing or going to do this yr that way there is no shock or let down
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Wow! Chris, that video from Denver makes me want to see it snow! Isn't THAT much snow early even for them?
Looks like from the radar that we are going to get a good dousing again later tonight. By the way, our temp here was at 78 when I went to lunch at about 1:30. Cloudier now, but still at 75. Winds are picking up some, too, as you said they would.
I hope the bulk of it gets out of here before the game tomorrow night and for the little 'goblins' as the flu does not need any help getting going this year! This is one reason I am hoping for some cold and a few GOOD snows this winter....to help kill out some of the germs that linger.
Think we will see anything severe outof this system later tonight and overnight?
If we do, I am sure you will keep us updated. Thanks, Chris!
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Wxman, I value your opinion on the weather, just as I value Andy's and Mitch's, and many others. I enjoy reading all the speculation, and joining in on the "will it or won't it's" that are here, especially in the winter time.
This blog is a place for me to see what is going on in the weather statewide firsthand...from people who are living it. And I just enjoy it all very much! Just wanted to tell everyone that....
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Wow, its warm out there - feels like summer! Warmest its been in 5 weeks!
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81° for a hi here in Bardstown today, but, golly, those winds..just had a gust of 42mph, so all the twisted,mangled and barely-hangin' limbs from the ice storm in that ginormous Maple tree of ours out front are now in the yard or in the street!(Thank God, the wind is blowing away from the HOUSE!?) And I've collected quite a lot of nice Halloween deco's from the neighbors' homes, as well...don't have a clue as to whom half of them belong to!!!??:/
And, I agreed w/ Adam the other day on a post, and I agree w/ him now. This is a community blog where all kinds of thoughts & opinions are raised, and most are welcomed by the majority of us, as well as Chris,who, in my opinion, is the 'Wx Blog KING" around this whole state.I've loved this blog since I stumbled upon it a few yrs ago, and I still love it, and I love all the ppl who post, even if I sometimes don't agree w/ their thoughts/opinions/meanderings, etc. If you want to besmirch me for that opinion, go ahead, but I for one will not lower myself to do the same to any one of you. God knows, the world is bad enough now w/o US having to argue over something as simple as the weather.
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Retraction: I apologize to Adam...I did NOT reply to a post that he made. It was made by "Jonathan"...(Jonathon...Adam...whomever...lol! You guys will have to overlook me @ times..my hubby is recovering from major surgery, I had what could have been a very serious accident on I-65 coming home the night of his surgery on Sept. 30, I have a sinus infection, and I just found out there's another "little fart" on the way (March 20)..and I just celebrated my 47th...go figger...LMAO!!!
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No apology needed, it happens. Also "little fart"...... Ouch. Good luck with that
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LOL..yep, it happens, even when you aren't "gettin' old"...
Thanx for the well-wishes on the newest addition, Adam! I didn't even get started until I was 43 & 18 yrs of marriage(I was "spayed"-lol- in '90..lol..personal/Paternal med. reasons), so our 3 yr old, Harper, will not be an "only" like I was. Thank God! We hope for a boy this time, but will take whatever God has planned. It's always nice to be surprised!
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So, what are the chances of Kentucky getting a snow storm like Denver just had? Anybody? I would love to have a couple of feet of snow. Love your blog Chris and I read every day. Thanks to anyone who answers my question.
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Well, I am thinking that we probably will not get THAT MUCH (at least in one good dumping...), but I do think the potential is THERE for us to start having some good snows mid Nov., evolving into some good ol' 70's-like snowstorms by late Dec./Jan...
BTW-I'm not a Meteorologist, I don't study it, I am just a little peon amongst those greater and more knowledgable than myself...but sometimes I'm pretty damned GOOD @ it....
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Hope I don't get into trouble for this "plug", but for those of you that don't read John Belski's blog, here's a site you might LIKE!!!
"markstenday.com"
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Chris is great for letting us all air our opinions on here, even when we don't agree with him. He really allows freedom of speech for the most part around here, and a lot of guys wouldn't.
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So TRUE, Wxman...and btw...?- I LIKE your observations, predictions,etc etc, just as much as I do MJ's, Shane's, Chris', WHOMEVER'S!!!
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