Thursday Afternoon Update
Good Thursday afternoon everyone and thanks for dropping by the blog. We have a lot of weather that will be coming down the road over the next few weeks as the overall pattern gets ready to take a nose dive into winter. I have been looking at some updated seasonal models for the next few months and the pattern they show makes me smile! 
Actually... the pattern before this month is over may make a few of you smile, too. 
Let's get started with where we are now. It's a blustery and chilly day with upper 40s and low 50s. Friday will see some milder air beginning to move into the state. Highs will be well into the 50s after a cold start.
The weekend weather looks flat out awesome! Highs will generally range in the 60s for Saturday and Sunday and this should carry us into Monday as well.
After that... things begin to quickly change as a trough swings through the region Tuesday. This happens as Ida moves into the Gulf of Mexico and likely becomes a Hurricane. Here is the latest on Ida...![[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]](http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT11/refresh/AL1109W5_NL_sm2+gif/144412W5_NL_sm.gif)
What happens to this storm once in the gulf? That will be something to watch for as it will have, at least, an indirect impact on our weather around here for Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. The GFS and European model suggest we get some indirect moisture from the gulf to stream northward to interact with a front moving through here Tuesday. You can see this on the GFS...
The Canadian says to heck with the indirect stuff and brings what is left of Ida through here Tuesday...
Again... that is something to watch for. Regardless... our string of Indian Summer will last a whopping 3 days as the models go down to defeat once again. They pretty much had the entire week warm and that ain't happening. They tried the same thing for this week... how did that turn out? Listen folks... our weather has been biased cold all year long and that ain't changing anytime soon! As a matter of fact... it has a chance to go toward the extreme this winter!!!
How is the mid month cold shot looking today? Hmmm... you be the judge...
GFS November 15th
If that gfs map can actually verify, that'd be great! I am going to soak up the 60s when i get off work because it sounds like they may be heading off for a while!!!
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So let's see..4 day warm spell, followed by 2 day cold spell, followed by 3 or 4 day warm spell, followed by 3 day cold spell. Looks typical. Of course the models have a 1-2 record so far with these big cold snaps. Looks like a UK football record from the early 2000s. 23 degrees on the evening of the 15th?? Ain't happening.
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But that GFS map Chris posted, on the other hand, would work out to about 36 degrees that evening. That's more realistic. Heck, we are seeing temps. lower than that already.
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who said 23 degrees on the 15th ? are you hitting the bottle again ?
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Shane, Mitch...where you guys at? There is a storm in the Gulf and you guys haven't posted all day.
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Taking care of business and working over time.
In all seriousness I have been watching Ida, and looking it's possible impact on our weather next week. My 5 days of Indian Summer on my 7 day forecast has been trimmed back to 4. I personally think the Canadian is going to agressive on it's impact on us next week, but I think even if it is indirectly feeing moisture into the cold front, we could see some heavy cold November Rain *Que Guns and Roses*.
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I do see some mositure coming north from this early next week.
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Thanks for the updates, Chris! Sounds like the remainder of the year is going to be as unusual as the past 10 months! Looking forward to seeing what you think is going to happen!
We had 30 degrees and a BIG frost this morning, and our temp has rebounded nicely to a current 56 under sunny skies! The weekend looks absolutely wonderful! Looking forward to getting the rest of the out door stuff done before the cold returns!
Glad you are feeling better!
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Does any one know when we can expect our first snow of the year. I know it is hard to call this far out, but I need something to look forward to. Thanks
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I don't know WHY...and I have no Meteorological experience whatsoever, but if it's worth anything at all..I am expecting a complete turn-around in the mild Wx somewhere around the latter part of the week of the 20th...snowfall (of some sort..?-snow showers or enough to measure somewhere around the 22nd.-23rd. seems to be sticking in my mind for some time now...?
I wouldn't bet my life on it, nor would I completely dis it, either, snowlover!
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