Wet and Windy Wednesday
Good Wednesday to one and all. Today is shaping up to be a good old fashioned washout as a windy and wet low pressure center works through the region from the south. This is the beginning of a very active pattern that continues to see our step down into a wintry pattern for the month of December.
The rains today will be increasing this morning from south to north and will be heavy at times. You can track this impressive rain shield right here...
Amounts of a half to one inch will be possible in a lot of areas. Temps today will generally be in the chilly 40s but will rise toward the 50s in the south and east late in the day. Winds will gust up right on into tonight and Thursday.
Temps will come way down later tonight as we fall into the 30s by daybreak when leftover rain showers will mix with or change to snow showers and flurries. Temps for Thursday should hold steady throughout much of the day. Winds on Thursday will make it feel colder than the actual temp shows.
Friday will see a mix of sun and clouds with highs in the 30s again. There could still be a leftover flurry or two.
The weekend will start off with another system developing across the deep south and working toward the Atlantic coast. The models have been slowly trending west with the threat of snow for Saturday as both runs of the GFS are now on board with snow working into parts of the state. Take a look...
GFS Saturday Afternoon
GFS Snowfall Map
The NAM only goes out to Saturday morning but it appears to be agreeing with the GFS. Here is the simulated radar from the model for early Saturday...
Let's see how this thing trends over the next few days as we still have some time to watch it.
Another big storm will likely roll our way at some point early to mid next week. We will tackle that in the coming days. The bigger picture for the month continues to point toward a very cold and wintry December as a whole for the country. The medium range forecast models will have all kinds of trouble dealing with such HUGE atmospheric changes in the coming days. Take a look at the various forecast indicies...
All four of the major indices I look at are screaming COLD and are doing so very loudly!! The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is off the charts negative and I don't know that I have seen it forecast that low. If you have been reading the blog... you know that the AO has been driving our pattern since the spring. Everytime it went negative... we got cold and in some cases this summer and early fall... record breaking cold. Now... throw in a -NAO... -EPO and a +PNA and you have the makings for something extreme happening across the country this month.
I will update the short term a little later today. Have a great Wednesday and stay dry! Take care.
The rains today will be increasing this morning from south to north and will be heavy at times. You can track this impressive rain shield right here...
Amounts of a half to one inch will be possible in a lot of areas. Temps today will generally be in the chilly 40s but will rise toward the 50s in the south and east late in the day. Winds will gust up right on into tonight and Thursday.
Temps will come way down later tonight as we fall into the 30s by daybreak when leftover rain showers will mix with or change to snow showers and flurries. Temps for Thursday should hold steady throughout much of the day. Winds on Thursday will make it feel colder than the actual temp shows.
Friday will see a mix of sun and clouds with highs in the 30s again. There could still be a leftover flurry or two.
The weekend will start off with another system developing across the deep south and working toward the Atlantic coast. The models have been slowly trending west with the threat of snow for Saturday as both runs of the GFS are now on board with snow working into parts of the state. Take a look...
GFS Saturday Afternoon
GFS Snowfall Map
The NAM only goes out to Saturday morning but it appears to be agreeing with the GFS. Here is the simulated radar from the model for early Saturday...
Let's see how this thing trends over the next few days as we still have some time to watch it.
Another big storm will likely roll our way at some point early to mid next week. We will tackle that in the coming days. The bigger picture for the month continues to point toward a very cold and wintry December as a whole for the country. The medium range forecast models will have all kinds of trouble dealing with such HUGE atmospheric changes in the coming days. Take a look at the various forecast indicies...
All four of the major indices I look at are screaming COLD and are doing so very loudly!! The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is off the charts negative and I don't know that I have seen it forecast that low. If you have been reading the blog... you know that the AO has been driving our pattern since the spring. Everytime it went negative... we got cold and in some cases this summer and early fall... record breaking cold. Now... throw in a -NAO... -EPO and a +PNA and you have the makings for something extreme happening across the country this month.
I will update the short term a little later today. Have a great Wednesday and stay dry! Take care.
Thanks Chris (I mean Mr Weekend lol)It looks good for some snow in eastern Ky I hope so. I need to be cheered up and snow would do it yaaaaaaaaaa.
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Get your camera out Crystal!
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Thanks Chris for the update!
MarkLex.. I responded to this about the same time as Chris updated.. I'm not the expert, but hopefully it helps to explain somewhat.
MarkLex wrote:
Tyson. Mitch. Wxman. MJ. Any expert
Please explain the track that would bring central KY best snows. I hear, EAST of the apps, eastern KY gets snow (does central get it as well with that track) West of the apps (we get rain)...What determines the best track for central KY to get snow?
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1. Wednesday, December 02, 2009 3:13 AM Bernie wrote:
I'm sure I may have it wrong or someone can better explain it then I can. Its not all about the tracking as it is for the northern Polar Jet to hookup with the Southern Tropical Jet. The Polar Jet brings the colder air and the southern tropical Jet will bring the moisture, we need a weak open surface low to hook up and deepens as the cold air pushes in as the moisture pushes in at the same time. A zonal flow or a deep troph usually isn't a good setup for us to get snow. A zonal flow most often is over ran by warmer air of the southern tropical jet. Kentucky has been the battleground for COLD & WARMER temps in the last 10+ years with our famous COLD RAINS due mostly to zonal flow patterns. As the COLD leaves, we get the moisture or vise versa. A deep eastern troph, usually a sign of artic air with no moisture to work with or we get stuck with the left overs from the great lakes clippers. Usually that means we get ALL COLD & DRY. A very dense artic troph will push the southern tropical jet out to sea.
Tracking plays a part when we are in a certain pattern, most often the west side of a track has the snow, since thats where the cold air is located, hence, the east side is where the warm is placed.
I feel that when we do get a snowstorm, it won't be on the models, it will be one of them dusting surprises that the models won't see until its already in the works! I love watching the models, but I don't put too much trust in any of them, they are really good for thunderstorms, but they ain't that good for snowstorms, hard to predict in the exact location where the COLD and MOISTURE will get together, but they will let us know when a low or storm is going to be near us.
Hope that helps some.
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Yeah the best track depends totally on where the cold air is set up. If you don't have cold air and frozen ground already in place, then the "best" track would be a more easterly track of the Apps.
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The best track for us to get snow is a low that tracks out of texas and travels east northeast across the south...that is if we have cold air in place already....the reason being is we get the moisture long before the actual low passes, so its not a matter of west or east of the apps because if the cold is there already and a storm tracks east northeast and then turns up the coast we get our best snows before the low passes south of kentucky. When lows come out of the gulf and head north they bring warm air with them so thats when its more important for them to go right up the apps or just a lil on either side depending on how much cold air is in place but the best track is out of texas with cold air in place and travel east northeast across southern ark, mid northern miss, mid northern bama, northern georgia etc because it throws that gulf moisture up over the cold air in place without bringing the warm air up with it
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Looking at those teleconnections gets the snow lover in me all excited. Let's see what mother nature has in store for us the next couple of weeks.
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I could use some cheering up too. Bring on the snow!
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Anybody in eastern KY have thunder this morning? Or is it just HEAVY rain?
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no thunder here just some heavy rain at my house earlier
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Same here in Hazard. Heavy rain earlier but no thunder.
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OK I was just wondering because the radar returns were fairly impressive on that stuff.
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Its thundering here now if your interested
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I was only half right last night. That phenomenon is actually called a 22 degree halo. Tangent arcs. You don't see that too terribly often here. It was a really pretty one.
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I have posted that thiw winter should see better snow chances that the past eleven winters, but the key word is "chance".
The far east of the state has a shot of some snow, but most of us will just see a trace, or a few bursts that quickly go away.
Greatest snow for December was in 88 I believe (or was it 89?). Not seeing that for central KY for this year, but the month is still young
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I give up typing on a phone. Jeesh.
Point is the warm air will probably get the most "face" time with the moisture for us. It will be about gone when the cold air sets. This sounds VERY familiar, since this is what has happened- more than not, for a long time around here.
Our harsh reality is that we need Tennessee to become the fence again. KY will see some good snows, but it always has. Just not the central and SE parts.
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The least snowfall for Lexington area was in 1988-1989, in which 2.2" fell for the entire winter.
The most snowfall for Lexington area was in 1916-1917, in which 53" fell for the entire winter.
The most snowfall for Lexington area for December was in 1917, in which 19.4" fell for the month.
The next snowfall for Lexington area for December was in 1935, in which 17.7" fell for the month.
Since this winter has been referred to the 1970s. In 1977-1978 winter, there was a total of 42.1" fell for that year most of it coming in January.
January 1977 - 18.5"
January 1978 - 21.9"
Two most snowfalls in one day was recorded on
January 17, 1994 - 10"
February 4, 1998 - 11"
The last we have seen a 6"+ snowstorm.
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Here is the reference to my above post.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/?n=lexsnowextremes
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Thanks for the link Bernie. You missed the two single day storms before the two you listed-
13.4" January 26, 1943
11.2" January 13, 1917
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I remember Lexington and Richmond got SLAMMED with snow in December 89 and snowed on into February off and on.
I remember walking to an advanced econ class at EKU to take a mid term test- in a snow storm and being ticked off, since I expected class to be cancelled.
That was early December.
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Heavy rain and 34 degrees here in Northern Morgan County-welcome to winter in Kentucky.....
WXman-no thunder with it.
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Thanks Chris! Looking forward to another winter of snow hoping/watching with you and the gang!
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Anybody checked to see if the 6z runs of the GFS have shifted to the west any further?
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Position of features was almost identical from the 0z to 6z however the 6z had a stronger surface low. Wouldn't be much snowfall if that were to verify but could maybe pick up a dusting if we were lucky.
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Ok...thanks Shane. Looks like this one is going to go east of me here in Lawrenceburg. Sad day once again.
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My in-laws in Fort Worth woke up to two inches of snow on the ground. None of the local forecasters called for any of the snow to stick. Surprise!
My mom-in-law said, "Oh, you must be buried in snow if we have this much."
On a different topic, it's time for my usual speech about looking around to make sure animals are being properly cared for as the cold air arrives. I'm all over some neighbors who stick a tiny dog outside all day. No doghouse or shelter anywhere. That ain't gonna fly with me at all. Let's all take care of our furry friends.
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I wonder what these animals did back in Daniel Boone's day when the people didn't even have adequate shelter, much less the animals? I guess there were no dogs and cats back then.
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lol
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I take it you don't care much for animals.
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Well, they weren't domesticated- i.e. confined to a yard without shelter. They were free to their instincts- which would be to find a natural shelter for them to ride out the storm.
Domesticated animals are dependent on their owners to care for them, including the provision of proper shelter.
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Very well said, JavaJoe.
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Fact is I have a dog. She's a Lab that was rescued from the outdoors in sub-freezing weather 5 years ago. I have taken care of her ever since and she lives indoors now when the temp. goes below 32.
Another fact...there are some who care about animals as much as, if not more than, humans. And that's the sad state of affairs in this country.
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WXman.. I would have to agree with you on this. I will take the 5th and not comment, I'm sure I could really offend alot of people on here about this subject.
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Yes you would.
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You would offend me for sure, because once you domesticate and animal, they are no longer able to defend themselves in the wild...
I am an animal lover and I will not apologize for that...
Anyone touch my Max, and God help ya', that's all I can say...
But I still love ya' Bernie...!!! lol
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I knew I liked you for some reason, Vinster.
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My wonderful friend Vinny.. but since this was getting a little twisted in my thinking and I was pointed out.. I guess I better explain my offensive remarks.
I have a question.. How can a murderer ONLY get 4 years and an animal abuser gets a heavily fined & crucified and more jail time? Especially when its somebody you love? (happened)
In today's society as WXman pointed out, there is more value put on an animal then a human, thats what I was referring to. I love animals, especially horses, they are a joy to have.. and I know there is a right or wrong way to treat an animal, when the law protects animals MORE then humans is where I have a problem is what I'm saying.. Then you have people and kids mauled by animals, then they say the parents or owners are not reliable when their kid is attacked, I feel that the owners should be responsibly accounted for, just as someone mistreats an animal, there is no difference and just as a murderer should be FRIED (no excuse for someone to kill someone, other then SELF DEFENSE)!
But I still love ya Vinny!
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You can't blame the animals because our system is wack...lol
I know one thing, You'll never see... oh, never-mind... I'll stop right there...lol
GO ANIMALS....LOL
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I care about both.
Children and animals have NO choice in this world, and animals have no voice...I even help adults who really need it.
I have to disagree about the sad state of affairs of this country...or in this world.
A lot of it stems from the love of money and lack of true compassion. We are our own worst enemy.
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I care about both.
Children and animals have NO choice in
this world, and animals have no voice...
I even help adults who really need it.
I have to disagree about the sad state of affairs of this country...or in this world.
A lot of it stems from the love of money and lack of true compassion.
We are our own worst enemy.
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I care about both.
Children and animals have NO choice in
this world, and animals have no voice...
I even help adults who really need it.
I have to disagree about the sad state
of affairs of this country...or in this
world.
A lot of it stems from the love of
money and lack of true compassion.
We are our own worst enemy.
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I care about both.
Children and animals have NO choice in
this world, and animals have no voice...
I even help adults who really need it.
I have to disagree about the sad state of affairs of this country...or in this world.
A lot of it stems from the love of money and lack of true compassion.
We are our own worst enemy.
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I agree with ya, we are our own worst enemy when it comes to making WACKY laws as Vinny stated above. It's only going to get worse too!!
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just looking at what alot of mets are saying over the coming weeks i would not be shocked to see some bitter cold take hold over much of the east but my concern is will this take the southern jet out of play or even worse will the i20 and i40 corridors being getting snow storms and will we be in the mid 10s with sun
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Looks like we'll be getting more rain today than we did during the entire month of November!
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after heavy rain last night and early this morning, overcast with gusty winds have took over in southern ky...temps. last night started in the low 30's, went up to 47* by 6 am. and currently were are at a balmy 56* here in knox co.
...............
What about that snow in Texas..those folks have managed to get snow 2 yrs. in a row before we have here in ky...lets hope ours is on the way Saturday...it sure looks more and more likely that here in eastern ky especially that we will at least see some snow in the air friday night into saturday...
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NO GOD MAD ANIMALS TO SURVIVE!! so its fine iff u treat ur dog as good as ur kids but dont act like a dog or cat that is left outside is being mistreted!!! the fact is a cat loves the cold and snow, as they prey on rabbits etc.
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mad/made its all good as when u need the usual westward trend u get the EASTWARD trend, isnt it amazing how when we are are position for a westwardly trend to help it never happens,but when it wwill kill us it does.lol
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So it's becoming clear now that December is going to feature no significant snowfalls for Kentucky. The pattern unfolding will prevent it. Is anyone surprised?
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Dude its the 2nd day of december and things are already "clear" to you for the rest of the month? WOW
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You got it. Just like November was clear to me a week before Halloween. And bingo... top 10 for dry weather and top 10 for warm weather.
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I agree that next week will probably be a miss for central KY (not much snow on ground), but who knows beyond that?
Recent years trends suggest December will be wimpy for snow, but parameters are in place for a change- I hope it pans out
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Of course, I'm being facetious. But the point is, you can learn to sniff these patterns out pretty good. The GFS ALWAYS shows brutal cold and snowstorms in the extended range. It's the "perpetual day 15 snowstorm" phenomenon. You have to learn to go with what you know and not with what you see on the PC screen sometimes.
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And even IF the GFS is correct...using the "new" GFS our coldest weather gets down to around -6°C which works out to 21°F. And our only shot at laying snow down comes around the 15th. Not harsh by any means for December...and that's IF the model's projection even pans out, which is normally doesn't. So the month looks to be very average, and very boring overall. :o\
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I agree with you. The only thing would be if a storm develops that models didn't pick up on..i.e Saturdays snow system. This wasn't picked up until a few days ago..so I guess we could hope for that to happen..but looking at long range GFS it does look boring at this time.
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You are right. And the reason that may happen is because of what Mitch talks about below...the southern branch storms aren't handled well by the models because of a lack of data across the oceans and mexico. So the storms end up on the gulf coast before the models even really pick them up.
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thats where my gut feeling is for now, short lived cool weather then back to milder rainydays such as this one. the hope to keep is jan, feb, march, because hopefully this mild start we are getting will balance out in later winter.
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no model right now is realibale past day 5 now, take this sat system for example where was this 5 days ago. the models are having major problems with energy moving into the west, digging the troughs way to much causing false warming signals for the east. The Sunday- Monday forecast a few days the gfs had a surge of warm air all the way northeast into the plains and Ohio Valley now look at it below normal temps in place, the storm that was forecasted to be a major lakes cutter on Wednesday tracking from el-paso to the twin cities is slowly shifting south on the modeling and in fact goes south of us on today's 12z euro.
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Not surprised, but disappointed as I bought into the idea that this Winter would be the one. What's even more frustrating, the cold pattern looks to be delayed again. This will be the Winter where cold and snow will always be two weeks away.
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that sounds like a typical winter lol
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I'm very interested to see the 18z models most models have trended just slightly east but nothing major.
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mad man henry is saying he thinks someone in s.e. texas could get 6" of snow outta the next system !!! just nuts..then from Knoxville tn. up to maryland could get a solid 3"...I hope that includes s.e. ky..since im only about 80 miles from knoxville...
.............
and if not...OH WELL..it is,,what it is..we wait for the next one...lol..
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Looks like the Nam is close to the GFS for saturday at this point. Its gonna be a close call for SE KY. Might be one of those situations were the radar is showing a snowstorm but the air is too dry.
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shhhhh...michael, be nice and I'll put the fan on so you can have some over in somerset...lol...
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LOL....LOL....LOL... THIS IS THE FORECAST FOR NEW ORLEANS !!!!...
...............................
Friday Night...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy. Chance of showers through the night. Chance of snow in the late evening.
WE GOTTA MOVE !!!...lol..lol..lol..lol
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Got friends in Southwest Texas. They've had all kinds of snow the last few days. Its way too UNFAIR. Its like there is a hole around the state of Kentucky for any snow..this is crazy. Its always something that knocks us out of a snow chance!
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well im not down yet as looking like euro has westward trend to it, so us e/se ky peeps not dead yet. 12z that is.
looking stronger as well.
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oh this was me aka ROLO by the way got to quick on the draw.lol
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not suprised there's always a western trend with the track. I thought the 12z euro didn't come out for another hour?
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pushing 60* down here in the tropics of south east ky...58* to be exact. and that was expected since the storm center is moving overhead...
knox co.
Barbourville
58*, windy, with spotty showers,sprinkles..
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EAST,WEST,EAST,WEST...MODEL RUNS ARE USELESS SOMETIMES...lol..12z takes an eastern jog...
...........................
One went east
one went west
all of them
keep us distressed !!!!
LOL..LOL...
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Tim, the sun just popped out here for the first time today....and we have 55 degrees. We have ahda lot of rain, and Chris DID say that we could expect temps to rise into the 50s in some areas as the low passed overhead, so I am not surprised....but that 42 and rain sure felt mighty cold this morning! That was a cold rain! And it looks like round two might be ramping up to hit later this evening!
Guys, keep hubby in your paryers, as well as my brother. Hubby got a very nasty cut on his right pinky finger MOnday, after getting it caught while trying to unload a day cover for a landfill....if he had not bee wearing gloves, he probably would have lost the end of it. (He is a pianist, and a good one). And my brother, sho had heart surgery in February, is having to have a defribrillator installed on Friday. I would appreciate any and all prayers. Thanks!
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will be no snow, maybe and i sday maybe a dusting farrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr eastern counties but that doubtful as I type.
on to the future and it looks bad for snow lovers for the forseable future.
on to more exciting stuff, man olE TIGER proves ever man has temptation and that money cant buy u luv, but can buy alot more though.lol
luv the voice mail he left on chicks phone., the GRWAT TIGER WOODS in paniac mode.lol
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You always like to see the demise of someone huh ROLO? Just a couple of days ago, you were guaranteeing a big snow for Saturday.
I for one have to agree with WXman, he has been hitting it close to 80 to 90 percent the past two years.
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I think its nice that WXman has a groupie
Go Billy Goat Go
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I figured since you salivate at anything rolo writes, I should back up a fella that actually has knowledge of the situation.
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and spread lies about him to right cause thats what thats what you did in your previous comment
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Andy Rose give it up we don't have a chance on here defending anybody.....
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18z NAM takes a slight east shift.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_pcp_066m.gif
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Tried to post...too long... it got moderated...l.here is the short version...please keep my husband and my brother in your prayers, Hubby nearly cut his finger off Monday, and has stitches, and a very nasty bruise all the way down his finger (pinky, at that)
He plays the piano at church.
Brother is having a defribillator installed on Friday to help his heart work better. Any and all prayers would be appreciated.
Tim...55 degrees here with a little sunshine actually peeking thorugh...
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thinking of you coffee lady.
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My prayers are with you and your family, Coffeelady. Hope all is okay.
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61* sunny degrees !! now here in my area, an amazing clearing line moving up from the southwest...looks like its been drawn in the sky with a pen.. I guess if the storm center is moving over...its kinda like being in the quote,quote...EYE of the storm...lol..quite nice out there at the moment..lol...
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18z GFS trying to pull a little moisture back our way
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_pcp_066m.gif
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kinda looks like a line of storms! is trying to form in east central Tn. moving east north east, could be something to watch for along the bordering counties of southern ky. after all it did clear off shortly and temps. hit the low 60's down here today...
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i dun think there was any sun at work today seen some very small breaks in the clouds but no sun though
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had about 20-25 miniutes of sun here today in Manchester, it got up to 60 here at my plantation.
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Is it safe to assume that Kentucky will not be getting an accumulating snow tomorrow? Tim, I saw the same line you did. I would rather it clear up if it's not going to snow. Even if we don't get snow, it's still winter no matter how you slice it or dice it.
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Moderated.
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I love my dog Better then 95% of the people I've met in my life...
He treats me better...
Looks like we could see some back end Snow Showers in the morning... It will be pretty, but with no substance...
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This is interesting
Nov 1976 has less than one inch of rain for the entire month
Nov 2009 had less than one inch of rain for the entire month
Those super late 70s winters didn't get started until around very late dec, early Jan.
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Let's hope that is correct..!!
"most" of the experts are all over a harsh winter... We shall see...
GO ANIMALS..!
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Five times I have been put in mediation trying to respond to WXman's state of the world post.
If all of them post, I apologize.
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I wanted to respond, but didn't not want to get banned right before winter...lol
On a side note, I get moderation if my comment is lengthy...lol
But like Andrew said, people don't want to read the long comments anyways...!
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Maybe it's a sign.
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Pourin' the rain here...Just started too. I expect the cold will be here soon....Thanks CB for all the updates...
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well it wouldnt take much of a jog at all by tomm nite to put us in a nice spot here in se/e ky,
I tell ya it so close I can smellllll it.
I like our first snowfall to be a suprise!!suprise!!suprise!!!
look like the system is stronger with the last runs than previous too. so who knows but its still interesting.
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winter weather is like CRACK, the HIGH is so good and the Lows are sooooooo bad,
actually going by that comment, I have been CLEAN the last decade with just a couple of relapses.lol
but those premature hits the models give us sometimes are GREAT NATURAL highs though...
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very heavy rain,strong winds,and a clap of thunder, here in Barbourville.
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ky. mesonet current temp. for knox co. is 64* lets see how fast she falls and where she lands...LOL..
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The wind is strong in eastern ky right now.
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