Wicked Winter Unfolding
Good Monday everyone and welcome to what is the start of a wicked period of winter shaping up for us and much of the country. People often talk about or wonder what it would have been like to have lived through those legendary late 70s winters. The pattern over the next month is straight out of that time frame. Whether or not the actual weather lives up to those years is still up to old man winter.
Let us start things out by talking about the weather in the precious present...
Many areas picked up some light snow Sunday evening and a few snow showers or flurries will still be possible out there today. Winds will still be gusty as temps struggle to get to 30 in most areas. A second system swings through this evening into the overnight and this will likely produce another band of light snow and snow showers. This can put down another small accumulation... especially in the north and east. Tuesday will see skies become partly sunny as temps stay in the 20s. Keep in mind that the winds over the next few days will make it feel even colder than what the thermometer reads!
That brings us toward the close of 2009 and the start of the new year. It is during this time that the weather will really crank up again across the eastern half of the country. This will likely come with a couple of storms with the first coming through late Wednesday into early Thursday. This will likely bring a swath of light rain and snow in here. It is looking more and more likely that some kind of second system shooting in quickly behind the first and this one will strengthen up the east coast. How all this plays out is still VERY much up for debate. Here is how the GFS sees it...
New Year's Eve
New Year's Early Morning
New Year's Morning
The arctic air would then pour in here with snow showers and squalls rocking us into the weekend and those can bring some decent snows in here.
Here is what the GFS is spitting out in terms of snow by Friday Morning...
Again... the wraparound snows would set in later that day into the weekend.
Just for fun... here is what the Canadian Model is showing for later Thursday into Friday Morning...
Speaking of the weekend... it is going to be COLD! Highs may struggle to get out of the teens for a day or two and we may see our first single digit temps.
Beyond the weekend... the pattern is LOADED with arctic cold and storm threats. Take the Canadian model for instance for next week...
As you can see... this is one heck of a winter pattern around here that can easily take care of all your winter fantasies!
I will have another update later today so check back. Until then... take care.
Let us start things out by talking about the weather in the precious present...
Many areas picked up some light snow Sunday evening and a few snow showers or flurries will still be possible out there today. Winds will still be gusty as temps struggle to get to 30 in most areas. A second system swings through this evening into the overnight and this will likely produce another band of light snow and snow showers. This can put down another small accumulation... especially in the north and east. Tuesday will see skies become partly sunny as temps stay in the 20s. Keep in mind that the winds over the next few days will make it feel even colder than what the thermometer reads!
That brings us toward the close of 2009 and the start of the new year. It is during this time that the weather will really crank up again across the eastern half of the country. This will likely come with a couple of storms with the first coming through late Wednesday into early Thursday. This will likely bring a swath of light rain and snow in here. It is looking more and more likely that some kind of second system shooting in quickly behind the first and this one will strengthen up the east coast. How all this plays out is still VERY much up for debate. Here is how the GFS sees it...
New Year's Eve
New Year's Early Morning
New Year's Morning
The arctic air would then pour in here with snow showers and squalls rocking us into the weekend and those can bring some decent snows in here.
Here is what the GFS is spitting out in terms of snow by Friday Morning...
Again... the wraparound snows would set in later that day into the weekend.
Just for fun... here is what the Canadian Model is showing for later Thursday into Friday Morning...
Speaking of the weekend... it is going to be COLD! Highs may struggle to get out of the teens for a day or two and we may see our first single digit temps.
Beyond the weekend... the pattern is LOADED with arctic cold and storm threats. Take the Canadian model for instance for next week...
As you can see... this is one heck of a winter pattern around here that can easily take care of all your winter fantasies!
I will have another update later today so check back. Until then... take care. 
Thanks Chris!
Let's hope this winter gives us at LEAST 20 inches of snow
That said Chris, I'm addicted to your blog. I check it several times a day. I appreciate all your hard work and dedication.
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Let's hope we come decent stuff, because thus far, we've gotten less snow than Houston or Dallas, and that's saying something!
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I've had about 9 inches so far how much has Houston or Dallas had?
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You are among the lucky. At my house in South Jessamine I've had less than 2". The Houston area has had anywhere from 2-5", and Dallas got 3" on Christmas Eve. They are also expecting more snow in the Dallas area with Winter Storm Watches out to the west of them...
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I live in Pike County where we have had around 12 inches of snow, usually a winter dream, however, most of my neighbors and myself have been without electricity for most of Christmas and I myself am ready for some warm and tranquil weather. Don't get me wrong, I love snow, I just don't like being without electricity.
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My nephew and his wife live just outside of Dallas and they got 6 inches on Christmas Eve!!
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Winter Fantasy--I guess if you live in WV__EAST OF HERE OR WEST OF HERE< BUT NOT IN CENTRAL KY
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Thanks Chris for the update.. here is the other GFS snow total map. WOW GFS says Lexington may get 5".
GFS
http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif
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6z GFS has heavy wet snow for eastern Ky again for Friday Morning. I hope I'm reading it wrong, most of the folks has just got their power turned back on.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_ten_096m.gif
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Please, Please no more wet snow! Some people are STILL without power from the storm a week and a half ago!
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I agree.
If any KY power employees visit the blog, I want to thank them for all the extra time they had to put in over the holidays.
Many of them gave up their family time on a holiday to help restore power.
Yes, I know they get paid for it, folks. Still, I appreciate what they did.
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I looked at 850mb and 2M surface charts from the latest GFS and NAM models. Both models are showing a good amount of precip. here Thursday...but both models are also showing surface temps. above freezing. By Friday when the sub-freezing air moves in...most precip. is gone. It's the usual song and dance..and KY gets very little to no snowfall on the ground.
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Yep, same old, same old. It is especially disgusting when you look at a snow depth chart for the nation and see that there is snow on the ground practically everywhere in the nation but here! Well, its not like we're not used to it, we just need to resign ourselves to the fact that this is the way things are now, and if we want snow, we need to go elsewhere to find it!
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surface temps were above freezing the last snow i got only got at or below freezing at night and not by much
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very similar to what the euro has had for days in terms of model output around here. it certainly is better than the gfs which had only trace amounts of precip on it's 12z run yesturday. this storm doesn't become a bigtime storm till reaches new england. for lexington area and northern ky this a borderline deal for the south it's mainly rain. The trend has been warmer on the models today due to the secondary energy coming in faster and further north.
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With the NAM taking the freezing line at 2M all the way up into the Indianapolis and Columbus area...I think it's hardly going to be a "borderline" event for Lexington. All rain according to modeling.
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gfs has the rain/snow line just south of lex through 09z wed night while the nam is along the ohio river slight trends either way could cause this to change. the 540 and 850 mb temps critcal values line set-up from a owensboro to richmond to pikeville line. Another slight warm shift and I'll agree but for now lexington metro is more of a rain/snow mix in my view wed night.
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Of course the moisture will be gone when the temps drop....getting tired of that broken record. The dome lives on.
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I always thought that your local forecast on TWC came from the local NWS office...but apparently I was wrong...
this is my LOCAL from NWS IN JKL...
Wednesday Night: Snow likely, mainly after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Thursday: A 50 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 38.
Thursday Night: A 50 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 21.
New Year's Day: A 50 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 29.
and TWC is showing RAIN and 45* on Thursday for my area, now HOW CONFUSING IS THAT TO FOLKS WHO DONT DIG AROUND TO FIND OUT WHATS GOING ON!!!
I mean whats 30's and snow vs. rain and 40's... as for me I'll take the 30's and snow...
we had a dusting of wind blown snow this morning and cold temps. are still in the 20's brrrrr....
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TWC does not get their forecast from the NWS anymore. They stopped doing that several years ago. There has been a push for private companies like TWC, AccuTrash, etc. to do "their own thing" and get away from the NWS totally. Problem is, the NWS truly puts out the most accurate forecast you can get because they are local, whereas the private companies are trying to forecast for the entire nation/world.
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maybe between the 3 NWS maybe more accurate but thats not saying much
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Speaking of which, not disputing anything, but I would love to see some data on accuracy of weather services instead of just personal views all the time. Anyone with some info.?
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I did an unbiased experiment in which I noted the forecast from all 3 major TV networks in LEX plus the NWS forecast on Monday...and at the end of the week I checked to see which turned out the most accurate. After 6 weeks of testing, the NWS blew the TV stations out of the water. WKYT was the best TV forecast, however.
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What was your methodology? Were you simply looking at temperatures, or at precip chances as well? If you were looking at precip chances, how did you determine accuracy? I.E. If the forecast says "20% chance of snow", how does that verify if it snows, or when it doesn't?
Thanks!
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It was very rudimentary. On Monday I pulled up the 5 day forecast from each source and wrote down their forecast high, low, and precip for each day of the upcoming week. On Friday I compared actual to see who was off the farthest. For precip. I simply noted whether the precip. and type occured or not...it would be very labor intensive to actually measure how much of the forecast area received the precip...plus the forecast area is different for each source. So I had to use LEX as a base point. NWS destroyed the TV stations (as expected)...WKYT was second followed closely by WLEX. WTVQ...well let's just say my 2 year old could do equally as well.
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Good point.
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12z run of gfs says rain, for thursday, and snow for friday...
friday's snow..
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_090m.gif
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I noticed to that the big storm around the 7th and 8th has been supressed all the way into the gulf of mexico..
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Pensicola
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Good Morning,Isn't there a saying about cardinals being around that so would be coming?
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oops that was suppose to be the word SNOW. I heard if cardinals was hanging around that snow was coming?
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I've always seemed to see a lot of Cards in my backyard & we'd get snow (such as it's been here in Nelson Co..lol)the next day. Trees were full of 'em yesterday & we got some flurries last evening. Also watch for little Snowbirds, as well!
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I don't mean to sound dumb but what do the snowbirds look like?
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They're little bitty fat birds (about the size of a sparrow or so..), grayish-white belly with black "caps" on their head, and I belive, black wings??! I didn't know what they were, either until my aunt told me. I thought they were chickadees...?!
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I do believe you are referring to chickadees. They've shown up in my backyard lately, along with cardinals, titmouse and jays.
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Ok thank you sooo much!! I have seen them too.
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hmmm... this is ((( KINDA ))) interesting from the NWS discussion..
WITH LATE ONSET
OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...MORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THAN
WEDNESDAY....DO EXPECT THAT COLD AIR WILL HAVE BUILT IN ENOUGH TO
RESULT IN AN ALL SNOW PRECIPITATION TYPE EVENT FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.
HOW MUCH SNOW IS WHAT IS STILL WELL UP IN THE AIR...AND THOUGH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PRE-CHRISTMAS EVENT IT IS STILL
PROGGED TO BE FURTHER EAST AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SO TOTALS ON THE
LOWER SIDE OF THINGS ARE STILL EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HAVE BUMPED UP
TOTALS A LITTLE BIT IN THE MOUNTAINS FROM INHERITED FORECAST...BUT
LEFT MOST LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS AT 2 INCHES OR BELOW AT THIS
TIME. SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND THOUGH IS THAT SOME GFS AND CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST AND MORE
MOIST SOLUTION FOR THE AREA. THIS COULD MEAN MORE SNOW THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...SO THE TRACK AND SPEED WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR SURE.
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It does look pretty similiar to the same storm that hit eastern Ky before, only exception this one showing more qpf totals.
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The only difference I can see at this time, is the temps might be a tad warmer. more RAIN then SNOW. We can hope that its a slower system for the cold air to get here faster.
BRAND new HPC says "NADA" for central and 1-3" for extreme eastern KY.. which I'm sure that the NWS and Chris may see something I'm not! lol
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Boyle County- 32* A frost of snow last night. Less than an inch for the season.
http://stormtracker.yolasite.com/michaels-kentucky-snowcast.php
Chris is the exception but most private forcast are terrible. I would not want to imagine being without the NWS. If anything we need more NWS offices. If there was one in Lexington our central Ky. forcast would be much more accurate.
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Guys, gals and Rolo,
If the good lord up above wants it to snow, then it will. You can forecast and do whatever you want but it will snow because the good guy up above wants it to. not because of a sudden change of this or that. Geez.
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Ummm...I think we all know that, BillyTG, however, that's what the blog is for. We all "speculate" about the weather.
Speaking of the good Lord, I sincerely believe that He gave us the knowledge to try and interpret the data about weather.
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http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lmk&storyid=45242&source=0
interesting photos
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I saw a bunch of these on the way to Shakertown earlier this month, but I didn't take any pictures.
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Well, here is MY forecast for the next few days.....it will be cloudy, unless the sun pops through, and then it will be partly or mostly sunny.
Temps will be cold, unless they warm up more than expected, and then it will be warmer.
We can expect precipitation in the form of rain or snow, or even some sleet, or freezing rain, unless the temps warm enough making it an all rain event.
There will be a near 100% chance of darkness during the overnight periods, unless it is clear and the moon is out...
There. I think that abour covers it!
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LOL!! That made me chuckle!
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Umm..you forgot about the .5% chance of an EF-3 Tornado during the Severe Outbreak that follows the rising temps and the flooding rains....?!
Good call, Coffee....
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Are you sere you don't work for the NWS Coffeelady? That reads like their forecasts.
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Nope....I have nothing to do with the NWS, except to read their forecasts online, like the rest of you....
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You know, I could take the soundtrack from Platoon and use it as a musical backdrop on this blog, starting at the five day point for snow outlooks in KY
Our "incoming" would be rain, mix and trailing snow showers
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I'm glad you didn't pick the soundtrack from the "Tilly and the Wall" (children's icestorm song) lol
Give me Platoon anytime!
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Hey gang, VERY COLD here in Jessamine county....been spitting snow all day. Little one made it through surgery just fine, had a few little bumps in recovery, but all is good, less than 4 hours after surgery, she was eating fried chicken, and taters and gravy! Thanks for all the prayers and well wishes! Think snow!
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So glad to hear it!!! Coming from a healthcare point of view...keep her hydrated and I would watch the crunchy foods for a few days...you don't want to put any unnecessary stress on the incisions.
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Coffeelady..
Here is another version of the NWS forecast.. no offense MJ or NWS, but gotta admit sometimes its comical!
8am - 10am. 10% Sunshine from about sunrise to sunrise, if the clouds don't come from the west.
10am - 1pm. 40% Clouds coming from the west may block the sun out for 20 minutes by this time.
2pm - 5pm. Expect some mix, don't know if its going to be cold enough to snow. but heck with it, expect 50% chance of showers.
5pm - 10pm. 50% chance that you will see a moon tonight.
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You know what? When you can do a better job forecasting than the NWS, then you can post things like this. Til then, keep your silly little comments to yourself. Huh?
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It was a joke... Just like NWS is...
Calm down...
Plus, She doesn't get paid to provide the "real" weather... geez...
...
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NWS is not a joke. Their forecast are just like other meteorologist. Wake up bloggers.
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well so much for the snow on wed. night thru. thursday night down here along the border...NWS is on board with a rain event now for wednesday night thru thursday night with snow showers after that.. I guess we'll see how it all works out.
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Yeah Tim..JKL is pretty much putting us in the rain with snow showers on tail end...blah blah blah...same old story I guess
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I have a feeling it will rain here on the border Tim. Doesn't seem to be as much excitement about the snow possibilities this time. Oh well, I hate to be pessimistic, but maybe we will keep looking for next week's storm.
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Staring at 4 inches of snow out the window right now, but I am 50 miles south of Cleveland visiting family. The dog doesn't know how to act, and the road crews are no better here than in Lexington. Heading back on Tuesday instead of Wednesday as forecasts here are showing freezing rain in the Lexington area starting midday Wednesday. It's in the teens here with near 0 wind chills and visability too.
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Same old song and dance or story. Five days out big snowstorm that changes to rain as we get closer. I am getting more cynical the more times we continue to MISS, but I still love the blog.
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secondary low does have some promise to it thursday night and friday. the models usually don't pick up on these things untill about 60 hr out like the system at the start of the month.
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This upcoming system seems similar to the New Years 2008 system that consisted of many snowshowers and squalls.
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Ice, ice, baby- du-du-du-d-duu-du!
We will have more chance for an ice event rather than a big snow event. Bank on it.
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Colder than whiz and dry, followed by a brief wet warm up, then colder than whiz and dry again.....sux!!!! I hate winter a little more each year. Bring on SPRING!!!!
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It's snowing in Lexington.
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Renee, must have look out same time I did (my post just below yours).
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Light snow falling on SE side of Lex. Fine powder snow. Blowing around on the street.
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At these temps it is covering the roads pretty fast in places. Wow. The parking lot is sleepy.
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Sleepy?
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Haha! LMAO. That's funny.
I meant to say slippery.
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I thought you was drinking some spiked eggnog for a minute! lol
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My fingers outrun my brain sometimes.
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Pass Wxmans eggnog
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Bernie, I liked your forecast! Shoot, what is it if you can't have a little fun? Today sure was cold, though, and I am glad that I am in for the night. (At least as far as I know!)
Chris, waiting for your thoughts on the mid to end week stuff....just to keep us honest...
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Sleeting outside here on Lakeville in Magoffin County.
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You got to imagine the "SCRATCHING YOUR HEAD SYNDROME" that ALL the forecasters are doing about this storm! I think the temps are pretty close to having a ICE SMACKDOWN! Let's hope it's either rain or snow!!! 3-5" of ice would be devastating!!
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Yep. I was not joking. Need to keep an eye out this week and the rest of winter. I am serious that we have more of a chance for big ice rather than snow events.
Any doubts that central KY is the fence and transition zone for snow events will not doubt after this winter. It has taken five years, but folks are coming around now. Actual results are a powerful thing:
1. Clipper are out "big" snows now
2. Old school systems will be more likely to be ice events than snow (we have had two big ice events and zero big snow events for those gulf fed systems)
3. The cold air could result in frozen surface air temps and then get smacked with ice and then a snow on top (like last year).
Look at our results and things become kind of depressing. Big snow events fall all around us, but not on us. We have had two good snow events and both were clippers in the last few years.
This winter as far as snow will be more bark than bite. Cold air is another story. Shame the cold air and moisture does not get along around here- unless a lot of ice and THEN some snow.
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There's light snow falling here at East Point, and it is sticking to the road. The temp is 28 degrees.
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it would be nice if nws jkl would issue a sps or short term forecast. we've had a few flurries in versailles and the driveway is covered in spots, so very little is needed to create slick spots. decent batch of light to moderate snow spreading into east ky.
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woohoo snow flurries!!!!!!!!!!!!! again
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My son is in Fort Drum in NY...
He said it had snowed about 4" inches in the last hour...
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Fort+Drum&state=NY&site=BUF&textField1=44.0534&textField2=-75.7738&e=0
Wouldn't it be nice....
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Our area has GOT to be one of the WORST areas in the states for predicting winter weather! If you look at the past weather advisories/warnings put into place in other parts of the US, it pretty much happens; here, we do know the chances of rain are better, but snow/mix/ice storm is so hard to predict and there is always so much uncertainty. Extreme west Texas has winter storm warning and I'm confident, as they are, it WILL snow.
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I've got to agree. Although I'd go so far ass to say it is the worst. Even if we're given a 100% chance of snow, it still seems we've got a 50/50 shot of it either not being snow, or missing us entirely! There really is nothing like it anywhere else in the world that I can think of - a place where by all indications, one should expect decent snowfalls, yet it never seems to happen anymore - uncanny!
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getting light snow/flurries here in knox co. at the moment...any snow flying at all makes me
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Some thoughts tonight:
Why can't Favre play for the Bears?
The triple-low setup on the GFS looks very wacky to me. Unlikely to play out that way. Temps. look to stay WELL above freezing here until at least Friday morning with that storm.
Avg. temp. here so far is 35.7. LEX normal should be 36.3 I think. So we are just barely below average...and with the possible 40s on Wednesday/Thursday...we should finish the month right at average. A very normal month overall.
One warm month (November), one normal month (December)...will January finally get this party kicked off?? GFS seems to think so...but time will tell.
When Windows 7 tells you that "this process may take several hours"...they aren't joking.
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we're over 1 below norm at lex now and the next two days should add to it.
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Been nice if you guys would have mentioned that things would have been slick tonight , roads are coated and accidents>>>
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Not where I live CB...
Just cold... If I get snow, I'll let ya' know, quick-fast & in a hurry..!!!
...
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Where you at Vinny? thought you were in Lex. I'm on Se side of Lex. and we have a good coating and it's coming down good right now.
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NW Lex...
There's something falling from the sky, but I wouldn't call it snow... lol
I do see snow blowing around but roads are fine...
...
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getting light snow flurries in floyd county now! Thanks for the warning Chris!! Unexpected until I saw your message on Twitter.
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Snowing in Pikeville temp 26 degrees.
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Jackson finally issued a special weather statement...
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0z NAM went colder for New Years storm..
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I saw that also, Bernie. Nice if it keeps trending colder and can also trend wetter, but the two never seem to go together for central Ky.
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0z GFS is also just a tad colder.
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To bad we couldn't go with NAM TEMPS and GFS MOISTURE! lol
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0z shows another low forming in NC at the heart of the storm.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_078m.gif
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I know Chris said this storm won't phase, but seems like thats what the GFS is suggesting? But I guess thats why I'm not your friendly weather dude!
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Just got off of 421 from the interstate into the Masterson Station area of Lexington and the roads were slick as... Well you know... I do a ton of winter driving in the Great Lakes area and the mountains of West Virginia but WOW!!!! The melt had turned to a thin sheet of ice... Saw several accidents... Drive safe tonight!
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Lets just say the 00z canadian has a lot of fun for us.
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A very fine ''dusting'' of snow here in East Bernstadt. Not nearly like what we saw last night, but hey, I'll take it.
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well those flurries didn't even amount to as much as we had yesterday in Knox County which isn't saying alot but at least yesterday you could see there was enough flurries to change the color of the ground slightly
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A dusty snowfall for Mercer and Boyle Monday evening. Drive home a bit ago found no slick spots but I am sure there are some out there. Black ice.
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