Almost Time To Rock The Winter
Good Tuesday folks and thanks for dropping by this little thing we call "the blog". Our light snow event worked out like a charm last night for a lot of the area. This caused a lot of accidents in parts of the state as it appears many were caught off guard. Be careful where you get your forecasts. 
I kid because I care... sort of. haha
The weather today will be cold but with increasing amounts of sunshine. Highs will warm into the upper 20s to low 30s with a breeze making it feel colder than that.
The forecast after today becomes a little muddled as the atmosphere goes into supercharged mode. This happens as our pattern heads into something that may rival some of the all time coldest January's on record for much of the country. Throw in an active southern branch of the jet stream and the possibilities become endless. The pattern kicks off with a system moving in during the day Wednesday. This will likely mean rain and some snow overspreading the region from the southwest as the day wears on. This will be mainly light stuff and is no big deal with temps above freezing. This will continue into the last day of 2009 on Thursday. This system to our southeast will receive a little "kick" from another piece of energy rotating into it from the backside. This will strengthen this low and wrap colder air into our region meaning a change to snow at some point New Year's Eve or the first few hours of 2010. When this change occurs and just how strong our low can get will be a determining factor in how much snow we can get from the actual low itself. Here is what the GFS shows...
Thursday Evening
Thursday Night
New Year's Morning
It will be interesting to see what the models do with this mess along the coast. Are they too disorganized with the low on the coast? The trend of the fall and winter has been for stronger storms so we will see. Much colder air moves in for the first day of 2010 as arctic air swings southward into the area. This kicks in the northwesterly flow bringing snow squalls in here and these will be on and off into Monday of next week (at least). The snow ratios on these will be pumped up meaning it won't take much moisture to put down snow as the "fluff" factor comes into play.
Here is what the GFS "thinks" is going to happen in terms of snowfall through Friday Night...
The temps will be another big story for the weekend as the coldest air of the season moves in. Temps will go into the deep freeze and they may stay there for a long time! Here is what the GFS shows...
That makes me cold just looking at it. The cold is really trying to lock in for the month of January and this has the "classic" look to it so get ready to shiver for a while.
Combine that with our active southern branch and many more big storms are going to form. When and where is impossible to nail down... but we can get the overall pattern right. Anyway... the European model is trying to get things cranking again by Monday of next week...
That is some wicked cold around here that is trying to meet up with an east coast storm. You can doubt any model solution all you want because I don't blame you. But you cannot deny the overall pattern is as good as it has been in a long, long time and eventually something is going to fall into place. This is the winter for everything to work out for some wicked winter weather around here!
Updates as needed so check back. Take care.
I kid because I care... sort of. hahaThe weather today will be cold but with increasing amounts of sunshine. Highs will warm into the upper 20s to low 30s with a breeze making it feel colder than that.
The forecast after today becomes a little muddled as the atmosphere goes into supercharged mode. This happens as our pattern heads into something that may rival some of the all time coldest January's on record for much of the country. Throw in an active southern branch of the jet stream and the possibilities become endless. The pattern kicks off with a system moving in during the day Wednesday. This will likely mean rain and some snow overspreading the region from the southwest as the day wears on. This will be mainly light stuff and is no big deal with temps above freezing. This will continue into the last day of 2009 on Thursday. This system to our southeast will receive a little "kick" from another piece of energy rotating into it from the backside. This will strengthen this low and wrap colder air into our region meaning a change to snow at some point New Year's Eve or the first few hours of 2010. When this change occurs and just how strong our low can get will be a determining factor in how much snow we can get from the actual low itself. Here is what the GFS shows...
Thursday Evening
Thursday Night
New Year's Morning
It will be interesting to see what the models do with this mess along the coast. Are they too disorganized with the low on the coast? The trend of the fall and winter has been for stronger storms so we will see. Much colder air moves in for the first day of 2010 as arctic air swings southward into the area. This kicks in the northwesterly flow bringing snow squalls in here and these will be on and off into Monday of next week (at least). The snow ratios on these will be pumped up meaning it won't take much moisture to put down snow as the "fluff" factor comes into play.
Here is what the GFS "thinks" is going to happen in terms of snowfall through Friday Night...
The temps will be another big story for the weekend as the coldest air of the season moves in. Temps will go into the deep freeze and they may stay there for a long time! Here is what the GFS shows...
That makes me cold just looking at it. The cold is really trying to lock in for the month of January and this has the "classic" look to it so get ready to shiver for a while.
Combine that with our active southern branch and many more big storms are going to form. When and where is impossible to nail down... but we can get the overall pattern right.
Anyway... the European model is trying to get things cranking again by Monday of next week...That is some wicked cold around here that is trying to meet up with an east coast storm. You can doubt any model solution all you want because I don't blame you. But you cannot deny the overall pattern is as good as it has been in a long, long time and eventually something is going to fall into place. This is the winter for everything to work out for some wicked winter weather around here!
Updates as needed so check back. Take care.
Here's hoping your right. Just hope we get at least one good storm before next week. However, I'm not holding my breath. Football cats laid an egg Sunday night so its' all about BB now. Hartford next then the dirty birds get shot down come this weekend. GO CATS!
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Translation....really cold air means...dry air. No precip. As per usual central KY. Then when it's 38 degrees, we will have 4 inches of rain...the tape is marked.
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KRinRichmond
That leads to the question I've been asking! If super cold arctic air = dry air, then how do they get blizzards and all that qpf in those blizzards out west and the moisture doesn't get supressed? Yet we get cold blasts in our area and it's dry?
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It's called the SnowDome, a central Kentucky meterological phenomenon.
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MikM.....Look what you started! LOL!
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I think it's just typical for this area of the country. You know, I think those of us who were kids in the 70's, like me, got a really false idea of what typical winter is like around here, so it affects how we look at it now. I think the winters of 76-77 and 77-78 were real "twice in a century" kind of events, meaning it's a good bet that if I live the rest of my life in the Ohio Valley, I won't see such a winter again, and big-time (10-20 inch) snow events are really rare around Central KY. The mountain areas in the south & east are naturally going to get more snow events. The Central KY snowdome is a natural reality.
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Fact is we have gotten a big snow at least every three years. We have gotten zip for eleven and soon to be twelve years now.
Our big events are ice events now- welcome to the dome
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Fact is you're wrong. Just a couple of weeks ago a lot of places in KY got huge snow. Speak for yo self.
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Ahhh, you are so cute when you are like that
I refer to central KY- dome central, so I guess I am (of sorts) speaking for myself=
so there!
You come form one of them there elite snow areas? Snowsnob!
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Yup Bubba, central KY IS THE DOME. If you like cold rain and just cold/no snow this is the place to be. I've had nothing but a dusting so far in my neck of the woods.
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He may not be a genius but he is pretty smart and what we had was an abnormality
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Bubba is Bubba.. Bubba won't change til he sees about 6"+ of snow in his backyard. BUT..Southeastern Ky had a snowdome til this year? Central will come down soon as well.. The MIGHTY SNOWDOME has weakened alot! Reminds me of the song.. "THE BISMARK" Awesome movie too!
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Uncanny how every system bombs out when it gets withing 72 hours. Notice how rain and ice forecasts are correct, but snow for central KY is wrong?
Bernie could be right though. We must come to terms that if it does not get knocked down this winter, we officially become the Seattle of the east
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If we don't get the BIG ONE for central KY.. I will second that motion Bubba for the NEW Seattle of the east.. Pike County was always good at getting the BIG ones.. I move to OKC and they get the BIG one this year.. now I moved to central Ky, so CENTRAL can get one, just for Bubba, Tommy, MarkLex, Vinny, among others!! It will follow me!! lol
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at this point to get Chris's forecast you guys will have to get the big one
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I'm from South Eastern KY and we used to get good snows. Have lived in the snowdome of Madison County for 17 years and have seen very few --especially in the last 10 years....here's hoping the snow show will follow you Bernie!!
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Our luck it will be half an inch or more of ice and then 8" of snow
Another ice event would shut this area down for a few weeks.
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I think the best thing for us is to have big-snow closure. If CB admits there is some from of meteorological dome over this area based on results, we can all rest in peace
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I hope you're right, CB! The last 11 winters aren't giving me much confidence. I will however disagree with the post above: before 1998, we got big snows on average every couple of years, since then - nothing!
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I am spending the week in S. Florida in the Naples area to get in some r&r with family and maybe get some warm weather in to tide me over 'til spring - yeah right! This morning the temperature is 41 with a 20 mph wind! Can't seem to catch a weather break!
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Good thing I stopped in Georgetown last week to pick up my lottery ticket. Does anybody know where I can go cash it?
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This is what J.B. had to say this morning...a few lines from his blog..
The second wave will develop a band of 3-6 inch snows from southeastern Ohio and eastern Kentucky up through West Virginia into Pennsylvania, and this will enhance northeast
AND THIS ALSO, HERE COMES THE DREADED SUPRESSED JET!!!
The storm sitting there and energy diving southeast toward the lower Mississippi Valley means there is a setup in the Deep South and Southeast, perhaps all the way to Florida, for snow next week.
Like I said yesterday, here or Pensicola!!! looks like FLorida may get some snow next week, while we freeze to death in COLD DRY AIR!!!..
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Tim, how do you access JB's forecast? I can't find it...do you have to pay for it or something? If so, I'll depend on you to show his view, lol.
Mr. Bailey is #1 in the forecasting; CB's is the closest to what actually happens, but it's interesting to see what some of the others think.
Of course, KY is usually never mentioned in other forecasts, just circled and referred to as Appalachia.
I think we will get snow next week, not just cold dry air. In years prior to this one, the cold air was hardly ever in place before the front, but it's different this year.
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Morning! Sunshine this morning but it is deceiving. Cold outside!
Rain for new years...who'd a thunk it?
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As cold as it has been for the last few days, how is it it will be too warm for snow? Where is the warm air coming from to push the cold out?
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Thanks Chris for the update.. You gonna have some busy weeks ahead of you my friend.
I'm seeing a NE blocking pattern with artic air? Anyone else?
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CB, for some reason I can't see the gfs where it shows what its predicting for Thursday through New Year's...
I haven't had any problems before...anyone else having problems seeing it?
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As the first low moves in, it will have just enough WARM temps in the upper atmosphere to give us a 35-45 degree rain, maybe some icing. GFS is still giving us .30-.50 of qpf on the backside, its putting down 2-4" of snow in the bluegrass region and 3-6" for the Va border counties. Pretty similiar to the storm we had a few weeks ago.
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The storm will have just enough WARM air in the upper atmosphere to give us a 35-45 degree RAIN.
ONE THING after this storm, the 12z says BRRRRRRRR!! We will WELCOME the NORTH POLE!
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Yep!
Moisture gets out of town when 32 or below, unless warm air aloft comes into play and we get ice and then a little snow
I have to go to Minnesota for business at the end of January. That is a different kind of cold. I will see all the winter I care to see for those two days. So cold....
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I tried to formulate the 32=dry-33=wet into a mathmatical equation(highly unscientific of course and was also meant as a joke) and Arron C took it to heart. Couldn't figure out the math.
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Call it the "pressure and convection displacement" theory
As cold air moves in, the moisture begins to moves out. Call it the Bubba theory
Heck, even when the big events hit, warm air gets in on the action and gives us ice. Warm air aloft is still warm air you know. Hence the moisture hangs around longer.
We need a physics teacher to quantify this into a formula. I took two physics courses in college, but the only numbers I recall is how much I got when selling the books back
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NWS was making a big deal about the thursday system being a blizzard type system and some people got mad the other day. Well, it's close to thursday and this system looks typical, cold rain and a possible wrap around snow.
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Meant to say wasn't. I need to learn how to proof read.
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From the NWS in JKL...FORECAST DISCUSSION...
EXPECT PRECIPITATION THAT MOVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO
THE NORTHEAST TO START AS RAIN INITIALLY. CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOULD
TAKE PLACE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS SOME COLDER
AIR FINALLY MAKES ITS WAY BACK INTO THE REGION. THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.
GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN 2 INCHES EXPECTED...THOUGH
LOCATIONS UP IN THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE A LITTLE BIT MORE ON THE 2-4
RANGE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE SNOW BEGINS TO FINALLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY
EARLY FRIDAY.
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lots of cold i just want a huge snowstorm. in this pattern atlanta and charlotte may be digging out because the northern jet is going to be flexing its muscles big time.
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Boyle County- 34* Sunny.....A frost/dust of snow last night in BOyle and Mercer counties. About equal to a heavy frost.
http://stormtracker.yolasite.com/michaels-kentucky-snowcast.php
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The models, all of them, seem to predict snow 7 days away only to change it to rain within a couple of days of the event. As predictable as this is why can't the models be adjusted to account for this? If I had a dollar for everytime a blizzard is predicted 7 days out only to become a cold rain I'd have as much money as that lucky smuck in Georgetown.
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hey mike, they are supposed to be having a big news conference there today at 2:00. so maybe we will find out who the lucky smuck is.
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I wanna be a smuck too!
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For 168mil they can call me whatever they want.
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SNOWING IN TEXAS AGAIN!!!!!!!!!!
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I'm ready for some BIG BLUE domination! IF we can't beat the rest of the country in SNOW, we can beat'em at BB!!
GOOO BIG BLUE!!
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I can always come to the blog for a good pick-me-up when I am down, and not in the best mood! You guys really cheer me up, and make a bad day better!
Wish I could say the same for the forecast. I could deal with the cold a LOT better, if we could just get the good snow to go with it.
Bubba, and Bernie, Central KY is not the only place where the snow dome lives.....it is alive and well in Somerset, too! I keep trying to find the edge of it, so I can put some dynamite in there and blow it, but, so far....no luck.
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Yep- part of the dome area and the last event we had should confirm this.
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I consider Somerset south central so you fall under the power of the dome. You guys have had as litlle or less than we have. Hang in there, somethings gotta give and I'm hoping and praying this year will be it.
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18z NAM has trended colder quite a bit farther south with about the same amount of precip.
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I noticed that too.. GFS says RAIN.. NAM says snow.. go figure
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Confusion within the models. That's a good thing.
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They are salting the roads again...
IN OKLAHOMA!!!
I see all kinds of things wrong about this...
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My daughter called from Texas, another winter weather advisory. Their snow totals now over 6 inches since Dec, and so far less than an 1 in Georgetown The snow dome lives .(At least we sold a powerball ticket ).
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Where at in Texas Bruce, all my family is there. Northern Part mostly
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North of San Antonio...
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18z GFS is also trending colder, but not as much as the NAM. Can the colder trends continue? Looking forward to the next update from CB.
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There are two possibilities for us in central Kentucky to see snow of any real substance on the ground for any appreciable period of time:
1. Travel to see it.
or
2. Look at pictures/video of it.
Until the dome has fallen (which it hasn't yet), this is all we can expect from winter around CKY. Hopefully things can and will get back to the way they were pre- 1998 or '96(depending on how you look at it. Until I see it, I am going to continue to hold this line of thinking. 11 consecutive winters cannot be ignored...
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What's happened to Rolo. Probably upset the lucky smuck in G'town took his lottery money. Just kidding folks.
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How do you know it wasn't Rolo who won? Only thing i heard is who ever it was contacted a lawfirm and everything would be done through them
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If it was Rolo I just want him to know that I always thought of him like a brother, best friend, etc.
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Hmmm
Lexington.......1950 to 1998 17 of those seasons had 20 plus inches of snow. 10 of those seasons had 15 plus inches of snow. The average annual snow for Lex up until 1998 was 16.9 inches. So yeah, there was at least a big snow every couple of years on average. Something has changed because it really has never been this long, at least since the snowfall records have been kept. Perhaps central KY has been through this before, we just don't know about it.
Looking at Asheville
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This snow accumulation map couldn't be more accurate when it comes to showing the dome.
http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif
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Wow Seth! That map shows the snow dome more perfectly than it could even be drawn! Wierd!!!
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Looks about right...sigh
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LOL...hey chelle...They are doing live shots on TWC from Dallas where YES AGAIN moderate snow is falling...
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YEah I know don't wanna hear it Tim lol
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anyone ever heard of BLUE MOON?? well here's the story...
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/29dec_bluemoon.htm?list158244
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I wouldn't say the 18Z NAM trended colder at all. In fact, if anything it has trended warmer. The freezing line at the surface (because remember...that's where we live) is all the way up into the Great Lakes! There is NO WAY we are putting accumulation down on Thursday.
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we will remember
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And I remember someone saying December wasn't going to be cold.
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And I remember checking last night only to find that we are a measly 0.5 degrees below average. For all intents and purposes, that's normal.
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no its not if its below normal its below normal just like we gave you last Jan or Feb i forget when it was a measly 1 degree above normal it was still normal
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Think I'll move to Texas......
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Southern Texas has seen more snow the last few years than South Central Kentucky has...just not fair
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Or central...
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It's like watching a pot of water boil.
Ever since Chris started blogging as we started staring constantly at models, it never snows good anymore
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I just don't get tore up about the lack of snow like I used to. After ten years of conditioning, I've accepted that something has changed in regards to climate. I understand that the global warming debate isn't welcome on the blog, but I feel it's a key contributor to the lack of any substantial snow the last decade. I enjoy spring weather and tracking severe weather that rolls through Kentucky every season. Despite what every long range model shows, this Winter will be no different than the last ten or so. The winters of the late 1970's will never be repeated, at least not during our lifetimes.
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I agree Russ...South Central KY (or atleast Somerset,London) hasn't seen any snow to amount to nothing the last 11 years and like you..I just don't see anything that will change that. Atleast the severe weather is good down here...LOL
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Seems like too many of us are jumping on the "winter is over" bandwagon a tad bit early. Winter is FAR from over, and who really knows what the weather may bring our way before it's all said and done. If, by some chance, we don't see much in the way of snow, we'll survive. It's not the end of the world, by any means. I, personally, am going to hold out hope that surprises are still yet to come this winter...and if I'm wrong, I'll be the first person to admit it (when Spring rolls around lol).
In other words, let's just go with the flow and let winter do it's thing before we throw in the towel!!
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So CB
Has all of our negativity gotten you down yet? LOL
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Just think...as mad as you all are in Central KY about not getting any snow in forever..think about how we feel in South Central KY? Take what little snow you'll had in the last 10yrs and divide that in half...and thats what we've had down here..LOL...How soon til spring?
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Exactly.. 2 months 20 days!
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I am always an optimist! It WILL snow....somewhere!
Sorry, just had to inject a littel humor here!
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We certainly need a little more humor around here. You'd think we were nearing the end of winter with no snow to show for it the way some folks are acting... And you are right, it will snow....somewhere.
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Winter is over in southern KY Chasity..nothing to see here..move along..LOL
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here is some ancient footage, of some of the 1977 artic spell and blizzard
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fL7eXnIqUV4&feature=related
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this is some pretty awesome video, of houses,cars buses completely covered by snow...
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what to do with 102" of snow!!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iVrslP4JHIA&feature=related
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thanks Tim for reminding me of how little snow Somerset has seen in like 10 yrs...LOL... way to put salt in the wound... How cool would that be? man if only we could get 3" of snow here..i wouldn't know what to do!
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this is cool to 200" of snow in Quebec Canada...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aOR3e8W9byA&NR=1
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Tim, why do you torture yourself? (and us)
but, didn't you get some snow from that last storm? or was it just east of you?
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Coffeelady, I always appreciate your posts, I live in Science Hill and the lack of snow the past decade has been ridiculous.....however, you always seem upbeat and happy in your view on things and i find that refreshing. Keep it up, I'm losing faith...lol
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I am like most everyone else on the board. I live just north of Somerset and if all we are going to get is "leftover" snow showers, then I am ready for Spring. COLD RAIN all the time is boring and Freezing rain is DANGEROUS, but snow is just ABSENT. I want to be a believer Chris, but down here where I live there is little to get excited about right now. No major shift in the trends that we have been able to see at least to this point. I want to believe we will see 1 good snow here, but I just don't see it. Give us reason to believe Chris!
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I'm wondering how much snow Lexington had this decade 2000 to 2009....90 inches MAX I'd guestimate!
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If Lexington has had 90" then Somerset has had 45"....you can bet on that....we've had half of what Central KY has had the last 10yrs
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did anyone else notice the BIG BIG ring around the moon tonight....it looked awesome never have seen anything like that before!!! Not sure what it's called but it was sooo perfect and huge
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I'm starting agree with Bubba G. as far as South Central Ky is concerned...winter is over for any major snow folks..nothing to see here folks..move along...LOL... I love it!
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Is anyone still awake? Is the radar playing tricks on me or does the moisture look like it's heading our way? I thought it was suppose to be clear tonight and tomorrow.
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I'm still up, Patty. Looks like the moisture is a mix...pink means ice, doesn't it?
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I'm still awake and it does look like we got somethig on the way. It looked like a part of Lincoln County was getting snow, so I looked outside and it wasn't here. Big disappointment...lol.
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Am I the only one that still has faith that we are going to get a good snow in central KY? It isn't even January yet people. You guys jump on and off the bandwagon even more than Bungles fans. Have a little confidence in the man who has created this wonderful blog...he says it is going to be a January to remember and I'm going to believe that until Feb 1. Now come April and the dome is still holding strong then I'm moving someplace it snows like Colorado or maybe Scandinavia. Until then...I BELIEVE!!!
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Yes, CB has been consistent in his updates and says there will be plenty of chances for snow this winter.
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Got plenty of faith in CB...I think we have a higher chance of busting the snowdome this year than in some years past, but I'm going to have to see it to believe it. I think it's the jet stream's fault, and jet stream patterns move in cycles and help create the overall weather patterns we see. Like the dust bowl years of the 30's in the midwest being due to the jet stream sinking south and taking the storms with it. Eventually, it corrected itself. It will do the same here. This year? Who knows. But it will happen.
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radar looks semi impressive right now
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