Winter Storm Watch North and West
Good Super Sunday Evening everyone. If you are a fan of winter weather... the week ahead is sure to be super in a lot of ways as we have snow and cold that will be the main players.
Parts of the state are now under a Winter Storm Watch for Monday night into Tuesday. This is for parts of northern Kentucky and southwest along to Ohio River toward Paducah. Here is a look...
The models today continue to come in with a colder setup for Monday night and Tuesday for most areas. They are still trying to bring in some slightly warmer surface temps to parts of the state... even with the colder setup aloft. The latest NAM matches up withe the European model with the colder solution aloft...
Tuesday Morning
Tuesday Afternoon
That certainly suggests good period of snow and ice later Monday night into the first part of Tuesday for many areas. You can see the European Model for Tuesday Morning looked very similar with the 0c 850 line being south into Tennessee...
We will fine tune that Monday night and Tuesday forecast with the overnight update. You will notice by Wednesday morning that wind and widespread snows should engulf the area. That setup is enough to produce some decent snows around here into Wednesday night. You can see this a little better on the GFS Ensembles...
There is a STOUT upper level system swinging through here during this time as you can see with the thermal min passing through on those charts.
A few of the models are TRYING to bring something across the south late week into early in the weekend that would be trying to hook up with a system diving in from the northwest. Here is the Canadian Model...
I will have a full update later tonight. Time to watch the Super Bowl.
Take care.
Parts of the state are now under a Winter Storm Watch for Monday night into Tuesday. This is for parts of northern Kentucky and southwest along to Ohio River toward Paducah. Here is a look...
The models today continue to come in with a colder setup for Monday night and Tuesday for most areas. They are still trying to bring in some slightly warmer surface temps to parts of the state... even with the colder setup aloft. The latest NAM matches up withe the European model with the colder solution aloft...
Tuesday Morning
Tuesday Afternoon
That certainly suggests good period of snow and ice later Monday night into the first part of Tuesday for many areas. You can see the European Model for Tuesday Morning looked very similar with the 0c 850 line being south into Tennessee...
We will fine tune that Monday night and Tuesday forecast with the overnight update. You will notice by Wednesday morning that wind and widespread snows should engulf the area. That setup is enough to produce some decent snows around here into Wednesday night. You can see this a little better on the GFS Ensembles...
There is a STOUT upper level system swinging through here during this time as you can see with the thermal min passing through on those charts.
A few of the models are TRYING to bring something across the south late week into early in the weekend that would be trying to hook up with a system diving in from the northwest. Here is the Canadian Model...
I will have a full update later tonight. Time to watch the Super Bowl.
Take care.
So, how much snow if any will Madison County see from this storm? I just hope we get a decent snow event this time. Thanks Chris you are the BEST!!
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Thanks for the update, Chris! Enjoy the game!
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Thanks Chris! I'm ready for another one of out snow watches!
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Here is my forecast for South LEX area from NWS Louisville:
Monday: Partly sunny, with a high near 34. East wind between 3 and 8 mph.
Monday Night: Snow, mainly after 1am. Low around 30. East wind between 8 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of around 1 inch.
Tuesday: Rain and snow, becoming all rain after 1pm. High near 39. East wind around 10 mph becoming west. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of less than 1 inch possible.
Tuesday Night: Snow showers likely, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. West wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of around 1 inch.
Wednesday: A 40 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy and breezy, with a high near 29.
Wednesday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 29.
39 DEGREES ON TUES??????? WE are not meant for a big snow, thats for sure. It sure is tough living in CKY if you are a snowlover. Whoever built the dome sure did a good job... Bring on SPRING!
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What really sucks is that as is often the case, two counties away is going to get clobbered while we get rain. And then there are the ridiculous prediction maps that show the snow literally detouring around us. I say ridiculous because anyone who didn't know about the dome would look at that and go huh? But sad but true, we will once again be getting the shaft. Looks a lot like the Dec. 2004 storm (maybe not as strong), but very similar in the snowfall cutoff following the river almost perfectly...
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how does clay county look for the upcoming week as far as snow totals? any thoughts are welcomed and appreciated...
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I love how it was cold and cloudy enough today to keep around our dusting. However last weekend when we had 5"-7" on the ground that melted super fast.
Jake
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Okay, I have a stupid question...exactly where does Rowan County/Morehead fit into the geographical "regions" of Ky..I always considered the area to be NE, but when these storms come through, and they say will impact the North (covington etc.) and the East (who knows?) we are in neither..one even says NE portion of the state....Thanks..and yeah, I love snow..but if this is, I agree and say bring on SPRING as well.!
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CB, not sure I would generalize as "super" for KY. Perhaps North KY
Most of us are quite mortal as far as our weather this week. Too warm to snow and then cold air arrives when the cold rain is done. Perhaps we need two blogs... one for North KY and one for the rest of us. That way they can gloat and we can be glum and now inter-blog irony
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Haha, thanks Bubba! yeah, I always told people NE, but now the NWS stations have me completely confused
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Come on Bubba......No Bubba Love Tonight?
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Here's what I don't understand. For the last four days or so, the GFS ensembles have been consistently colder than the operational model and have showed more snow for most parts of the state. Still, the NWS offices seem not too concerned with it and go with the warmer operational GFS and NAM.
Are they seemingly sidelining the ensembles because they feel climotology is on their side? In other words, we usually get rain, so lets go with that.
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I believe that is the rationale that the NWS office in Nashville uses until it is staring them in the face or until they walk outside and see that it is snowing
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I made my first call for snowfall, it will change but I am confident with this right now
its on www.ekywx.com in the blog
also talk about some other things
(open in new tab don;t leave this
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This is my FIRST call so just remember it will change lol
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Wake me when THE WHO are finished lol J/K
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I thought the Who was great! Pete can still sling that axe.
Now, my beloved Saints need to run some screens to Reggie Bush and things will come around. GEAUX SAINTS!!
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I think they did a great job. I hope to be kicking that good at 65 Y/O
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The Who ROCKS!!
Listen to Live at Leeds 1967. They rocked before Led Zeppelin did. The Townsend invented the powercord
Who's Next and Live at Leeds ar classics!
Compared to our weather around here, we would not make it past the first stage of Idol
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Hi, I am new to the blog but I do believe in the mysterious "snow dome" and I was trying to find a reason why there is a "snow dome" over parts of ky and I found this info. Wow! Look at these snow totals, now that is some "Old School Snow".
Glen Conner
State Climatologist Emeritus for Kentucky
Kentucky isn't a state that comes to mind when snowfall is mentioned. However, when moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is lifted by cold air from the north, spectacular (for Kentucky) snowfall amounts can occur. Benham, in Harlan County, holds three monthy records, the annual record, and the winter record snowfall for the Commonwealth. During 1960, they observed 30 inches during February and 46.5 inches during March. Those amounts help produce the record annual snowfall of 96.7 inches. Those amounts contributed to the record most snowfall for a winter. Benham had 107.2 inches during the winter of 1959-1960 produced by a total of forty snowfall days.
Some college students of the time referred to the March 1993 snowfall as the "Spring Break Snow." This short duration but spectacular blizzard over eastern and southeastern counties occurred on 13 and 14 March. Several locations in Kentucky broke the old greatest daily snowfall record on 18 inches. The new record holder is Hazard where 25.0 inches of snowfall was observed for 14 March 1993, eclipsing Bowling Green's old record (also a March snowfall) by seven inches!
On 2 April 1987, snow began falling over southeastern Kentucky. By the next day, power lines broke under the weight of the snow. A second snow event followed on 4-5 April. Snow covered the southeastern area to a depth of one to three feet. The greatest snowfall was in Letcher and Pike Counties. Carr Fork Lake recorded 27.5 inches for the month, Ivel had 27 inches, and Freeburn topped the list with 29 inches.
Kentucky Record Most Monthly Snowfall
Record Low Location Year Data Source
Month and Day Indicated
January 46.0" La Grange 1978 Climatological Data, Kentucky
February 30.0" Benham 1960 Climatological Data, Kentucky
March 46.5" Benham 1960 Climatological Data, Kentucky
April 29.0" Freeburn 1987 Climatological Data, Kentucky
May 5.0" Springfield 1894 Monthly Weather Review
June 0"
July 0"
August 0"
September 0"
October 7.5" Sergent 1923 Climatological Data, Kentucky
November 21.5" Benham 1950 Climatological Data, Kentucky
December 28.3" Cherokee Park 1917 Climatological Data, Kentucky
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Chris, I got all the maps but the WSW one. I know we are not in it, but I am concerned that we are in for an icing event. I am looking forward to your overnight update to see what your thoughts are.
Looks like some chances for snow are with us through the week, and possibly the weekend. Guess its going to be another wait, watch and, see event.
By the way, we never did see any sunshine today. Had clouds and very light snow for much of the day. Temp never did get to freezing.
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Ah....moderation...... ~SIGH~ but the WHO was spectacular! Pete still has the moves, and Daultry can still scream!
GO COLTS!!!!
Chris, looking forward to your overnight update. I am concerned about the word "ice" that I saw....
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I don't see how the NWS in louisville can put out temps so high when the freezing line is so far south.
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http://www.kentucky.com/latest_news/story/1129093.html
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HELL YEAH. GEAUX SAINTS. I'M OUT.
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i was wondering is central ky suppost to get any ice or snow monday night and tuesday
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I can now see why Louisville NWS is going with the warm scenario. They must be basing their forecast off the SREF which essentially brings rain to the entire state and the counties of Indiana that border the Ohio. I see another FAIL with this storm.
Given what we have seen lately, I wonder how this state ever had some of the snowy winters about which we read.
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You are right, it leaves one to wonder how the state could get hit like some of those snows and not for 12 years.
Jake
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Congratulations to The New Orleans Saints:
2009 Superbowl Champs..!!!
What a great year for the Saints and all their fans...
...
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HEEELLLLLLL. YEAAEEHHH. GEAUX SAINTS!!!!!!!!!!
LEB BON TEMPS!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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More proof of the snow dome.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=jkl
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as Homer Simpson would say:
D'OOOOOOOOOOOOHHHHHME!
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ridiculous, why i fled lexington
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There is no denying this winter is not one for Kentucky when looking at that map. It's inexplicable how the low can track that far south, the moisture be relatively abundant, and yet the snow totally bypasses the entire state.
At this rate, I would rather it be in the 60's so I can play golf. The best winter pattern in many years is going to be wasted.
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Sure was a fun game to watch. Congrats to the SAINTS!
Storm wise, I sure think this is like the hundreds of other storms weve seen, a BUST for snow.
Anyone see anything coming in the long range?
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Ky has 20+ counties in a WSW, obviously it is not going to be a bust for all.
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I amend my comment...a bust for CENTRAL and South Central KY...sorry..Northern Ky does get some good stuff I think
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i am under another winter storm watch here. from what i can tell from local forums and mets, by tuesdday midday we excpect 3-6 inches with .15 to .25 qfp tuesday night and temps near the mid 10s we could see another 4 or 5 inches out of that, still have about 5'' on the ground so we could end up with some 6-8 inch totals easily here.
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No it will bust for the entire area. The whole state is supposed to get to near 40 on Tuesday and that includes the northern sections. That means the snow that accumulates on Monday night will melt with the rain on Tuesday, and then on the back side the models are showing less moisture. Meaning when the storm ends NKY will have 1-2 on the ground, and SKY and CKY will have up to an inch.
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I have seen this story before, the whole state will bust. That is what the models are now showing. It is going to be to warm on Tuesday even for northern KY.
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I'm starting to notice an effective algorithm for firguring out the weather on this blog. CB is bullish on snow, most of the regular bloggers counter by saying said storm will be a total bust, and then we actually get something in between.
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Boyle County- 25* Light flurries all day but not enough for a dusting here.
What will I get this week?http://stormtracker.yolasite.com/
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00z models trended colder.
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About 13.5 inches of snow so far this winter in Frankfort, not bad could have been better. 2 to 4 in. possible for this next go around. If this work out, 17 inch or so for the winter with a good month to go in the snow season. I'll take it. Much better than winters of late. Stay positive folks it only takes one good one to make us
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I see a lot of people getting upset about people in Lexington saying it is a bust. I believe the reason is because Chris was orginally in Lex and Central KY and we tend to forget about the blog now being not only a KY weather blog, but even some people from TN, WV, IN and OH blog.
Jake
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thats just stupid!
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LIVE streaming cam of this storm now in Wichita, Kansas http://www.360wichita.com/wichitacam/
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I've noticed that the meteorologist in the kentucky area are not making any snow predictions like they did this past weekend and had egg on their faces, guess no one wants to look foolish this time around with their snow predictions....lol
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Hey ROBBIE
Saw your comment above about past winters vs recent winters. I've been asking/wondering this ALL along. Given the constant warm air advection we always see, I guess all those snows in the past in KY were just FREAK storms. Perhaps it wasn't as common here as we thought. Just big freak storms that were recorded in history. I've lived here for 14 years and have seen ONE 20 inch blizzard.....two major ice storms, and LOTS of clippers and of course LOTS of rain.
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The truth is major storm systems that produce 12+ inches are rare. What everyone is upset about is the medium snows we used to get. Back in the 80’s and 90’s there were plenty of snows that reached 6+ and 3-5 was a common occurrence that happened on a regular bases.
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Hmmm.....I wonder what kept the WAA from intruding on those medium snows back then?
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NAM is showing
Lex 1-3
Cin 3-4
GFS is showing
Lex 2-3
Cin 5-6
Are these totals too high because of the rain/mix?
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I just watched Todd on WKYT and he said the morning commute might be very rough due to perhaps six inches of snow in the Lexington area. (which includes me in Bourbon County) Then he said the commute home won't be bad because the rain will have fallen on the snow. So we might get six inches of snow and then - POOF - the rain will wash it away? Geez...what a waste of good snow.
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