Snow and Ice Likely Tonight & Tuesday
Good Monday everyone. We have a whole lot of wintry weather to talk about as we have a very busy weather week that is just beginning. Our first item up for bids is a system that will roll in here later tonight into Tuesday and this is likely to be a high impact system that brings snow and some ice to the region. Then we watch more widespread snows and arctic air surge in here Tuesday night and Wednesday.
The system moving in tonight has prompted Winter Weather Advisories to be issued for of Kentucky. This begs the question... should the blog be in Winter Storm Threat mode? I am toying with it as I write this. Regardless of modes... the morning commute Tuesday is going to be nasty across the entire region. I have a map showing the wide variety of weather I am expecting...
I want to stress something here and that the bust potential with this is the opposite of our last storm as cold air is already in place and the models all coming in colder with each run. This could mean much more snow and ice than the map shows into early Tuesday bringing us to the cusp of winter storm material. Several inches of snow will be very possible for the areas that stay all snow. I am also concerned about the freezing rain threat... especially considering we have a frozen ground. The best threat for a switch to all rain will be the farther south you live and that all rain line will try to creep north by early afternoon Tuesday.
The NAM is showing the 850 0 celcius line and the 540 thickness lines staying to our south through the enitre event. This strongly suggests mainly frozen precip...
NAM Tuesday Morning
Tuesday Afternoon
Tuesday Evening
The GFS Ensembles are also having a tough time scouring out the low level co air that is alread in place...
That is one nice arctic shot blowing in here later Tuesday into Tuesday night. Temps may drop by as much as 15 degrees in just a few hours when the front moves through where you live. Winds will gust up and may reach as high as 30-3mph leading to dangerously cold wind chills. Snow showers and squalls will become widespread from Tuesday night through Wednesday night and this can lay down some decent snow totals. This snow will be aided by a strong northwesterly wind flow and a high liquid to snow ratio because of the cold air in place. Some blowing and drifting of whatever snow falls is likely on Wednesday.
I have made a map of what I expect during this time in terms of a general snowfall...
I am not putting numbers out just yet... but I refer to a light snowfall as 1"-3".
Again... that would NOT include the totals from tonight and Tuesday and is only for Tuesday night through Wednesday.
A few words about other weather items on my mind...
- Yet another Blizzard is likely from the DC area to New York and Boston by mid week. Amazing!!
- This pattern may bring snows into Florida late this week!
- We have to watch the southern system on Friday... that looks to stay to our south right now. But a weak system may dive in later Friday or Saturday from the northwest with some light snows.
- The pattern next week continues to be primed for snowstorms across the eastern half of the country. The retrograding look to things suggest ground zero next week may be farther west than where it sets up this week and could put this region in the middle of the game.
- If we don't hit freezing Tuesday... we may not do it for a week... at least! This is a COLD pattern for most of the country as February goes right to the place the blog forecast it to go to weeks ago.
Speaking of the snows across the DC area... check out this cool time lapse snowfall video...
I will have several updates out today so please check back. If you have travel plans later tonight into Tuesday and Wednesday... you really need to stay on top of this as this will be a high impact event. You can also look for some quick updates through Twitter so sign up to follow me @KentuckyWeather. My twitter feed is also in the top right hand corner of this blog.
Take care.
The system moving in tonight has prompted Winter Weather Advisories to be issued for of Kentucky. This begs the question... should the blog be in Winter Storm Threat mode? I am toying with it as I write this. Regardless of modes... the morning commute Tuesday is going to be nasty across the entire region. I have a map showing the wide variety of weather I am expecting...
I want to stress something here and that the bust potential with this is the opposite of our last storm as cold air is already in place and the models all coming in colder with each run. This could mean much more snow and ice than the map shows into early Tuesday bringing us to the cusp of winter storm material. Several inches of snow will be very possible for the areas that stay all snow. I am also concerned about the freezing rain threat... especially considering we have a frozen ground. The best threat for a switch to all rain will be the farther south you live and that all rain line will try to creep north by early afternoon Tuesday.
The NAM is showing the 850 0 celcius line and the 540 thickness lines staying to our south through the enitre event. This strongly suggests mainly frozen precip...
NAM Tuesday Morning
Tuesday Afternoon
Tuesday Evening
The GFS Ensembles are also having a tough time scouring out the low level co air that is alread in place...
That is one nice arctic shot blowing in here later Tuesday into Tuesday night. Temps may drop by as much as 15 degrees in just a few hours when the front moves through where you live. Winds will gust up and may reach as high as 30-3mph leading to dangerously cold wind chills. Snow showers and squalls will become widespread from Tuesday night through Wednesday night and this can lay down some decent snow totals. This snow will be aided by a strong northwesterly wind flow and a high liquid to snow ratio because of the cold air in place. Some blowing and drifting of whatever snow falls is likely on Wednesday.
I have made a map of what I expect during this time in terms of a general snowfall...
I am not putting numbers out just yet... but I refer to a light snowfall as 1"-3".
Again... that would NOT include the totals from tonight and Tuesday and is only for Tuesday night through Wednesday.A few words about other weather items on my mind...
- Yet another Blizzard is likely from the DC area to New York and Boston by mid week. Amazing!!
- This pattern may bring snows into Florida late this week!
- We have to watch the southern system on Friday... that looks to stay to our south right now. But a weak system may dive in later Friday or Saturday from the northwest with some light snows.
- The pattern next week continues to be primed for snowstorms across the eastern half of the country. The retrograding look to things suggest ground zero next week may be farther west than where it sets up this week and could put this region in the middle of the game.
- If we don't hit freezing Tuesday... we may not do it for a week... at least! This is a COLD pattern for most of the country as February goes right to the place the blog forecast it to go to weeks ago.
Speaking of the snows across the DC area... check out this cool time lapse snowfall video...
I will have several updates out today so please check back. If you have travel plans later tonight into Tuesday and Wednesday... you really need to stay on top of this as this will be a high impact event. You can also look for some quick updates through Twitter so sign up to follow me @KentuckyWeather. My twitter feed is also in the top right hand corner of this blog.
Take care.
Thanks Chris
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Not liking the freezing rain/ice potential, but SO excited to be in the "A Good Snowfall" range.
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Just watched the time lapse video from DC that you shared... WOW! That is no less than amazing!
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Looking at the NAM and GFS, neither bring the freezing line into KY.
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You must remember that the blue line isnt the surface freezing line, that line does not matter much when it comes to p-type, especially when you are close to it.
--------------------
East Kentucky WX
www.ekywx.com
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can you explain this a little more? I thought it had a great deal to do with precip type. I.E. if its warm air there, you're not going to get snow. correct?
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Basically when looking at the NAM and GFS, you are looking at 850 temps which is the temperature of the upper atmosphere. Naturally, you still want it to be below freezing to produce snow. If you are above freezing at 850, then you will get liquid precip instead of frozen. Now, if surface temps are below freezing while 850 temps are above freezing, you will more than likely get freezing rain. But even if 850 temps are below freezing, there are more layers in the atmosphere to check and make sure you are below freezing. All layers must be below freezing in order to get all snow (other than surface temps, where it can snow at 36 degrees). From what I have seen from the models, not all layers are below freezing so you are still going to have mixing issues.
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Thanks, that was how I understood it. So it didn't make sense to me that this layer didn't matter much when it comes to precip type.
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We know the drill. Snow outlooks for us even a day out are dubious, but freezing rain is usually dead-on accurate.
Who wants to bet on this one
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Amazing how the temperature responds to mouisture in KY.
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Bubba, may I please ask you once again for your thoughts specific to Lexington with this coming "event"? Thank you so much! Have a good one!
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All I can say is.....Yuck,Yuck and Yuck!! Hate ICE and I hate a cold rain!Don't get me wrong I love snow as much as anyone else here but, I don't like all the soggy, mushy mess all this rain is bringing us.
I'm so ready for warm summer nights on the lake fishing and BBQs.
I'm dreaming of a warm summer day....
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ok please its time NFL that we move on from TA TA GATE and bring back up to date entertaiment instead of 30 years past their prime rock stars..
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I didn't know what to make of that costume Roger was wearing. Still would much rather see them than some of the rap crap they could put. Bring ZZ Top back.
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Yeah my sister and I were having a good laugh. We could just picture some households with young kids going "who is this group"? answer "The Who" kid - the group on t.v. - who are they? answer "The Who" and on and on.... Kinda like that baseball thing - who's on first base. Lol
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I agree, Coffeelady. I think The Who is far better than some of the stuff being played today.
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AWWW...comeon Rolo.....The WHO is much better than a lot of what we have seen in years past. I hope I can still go that strong when I hit their age! I enjoyed them! (Of course, I was a teenager when they were in their heyday!)
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That was the best halftime I have ever seen or at least since Tom Petty.
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I would have to say that the WHO would be a PERFECT group to be here in Central Kentucky if and when we get a VERY nice dumping of SNOW!!!!!
While the SNOW is coming down ... The Who could play " Who Are You " meaning the snow that is coming down.
What a bash that would be !!
ö¿ô
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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1127 AM EST MON FEB 8 2010
...ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA AND
NORTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING
EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND A STRONGER SYSTEM DIVING
SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA WILL BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF WINTER
PRECIPITATION TO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. AS THE TWO SYSTEMS COLLIDE...SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO KENTUCKY...RAIN
MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH THE SNOW AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
..WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS
EVENING TO 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ TUESDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM
CST/ THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ TUESDAY. THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
* TIMING: SNOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER 7 PM EST...6PM CST...AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY...BASICALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WESTERN
KENTUCKY AND BLUEGRASS PARKWAYS. THIS INCLUDES THE LOUISVILLE
AND LEXINGTON METRO AREAS.
* MAIN IMPACT: SNOW WILL COVER ROADWAYS TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW THE FREEZING MARK. SNOW WILL PRODUCE
SLICK AND HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE
TUESDAY.
* SNOWFALL AMOUNTS: SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA.
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Winter Storm Warning now
Here is a current Winter Storm Warning for Paris (Paris, KY) until 1:00pm, Tue Feb 9 2010, from your local National Weather Service office.
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Why rolo didn't you like seeing that continuous "wardrobe malfunction" when he was strumming the guitar?
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Thank you, Mr. Bailey, for your blog. You were pretty much spot-on for my area (Perry Co., Ky.) during the last snowstorm.
It's great to be able to read a detailed forecast and the reasoning behind it. Keep up the good work.
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How's this for a slap in the face:
Today: Snow, possibly mixed with sleet before noon, then rain and snow, possibly mixed with sleet. High near 35. East southeast wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow and sleet accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible.
Where is this forecast? Memphis, TN! And we have to contend with rain - amazing
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Man that is just what i was thinking!! That is a messed up track 6-10 inches in memphis,and rain here
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I just saw that as well...WHAT IN THE WORLD!!...MEMPHIS TN. 6-10" !! and were once again in the WEATHER OMELET of rain/ice/mess!!!...GOOD GRIEF!!..
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KY should have the slogan:
"Gateway to the Big Snow". St Louis has an arch and we have a dome
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I just dont think that much warm air gets this far north though.. Just my opinion, i guess we will have to wait and see
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Warm air would be our friend in this case. Ironic.
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The problem for us is the low skirts south of Memphis giving them snow while a low forms and rides into KY giving us the warm air.
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The surface freezing line does go north of us tomorrow...otherwise this storm would be a total mess for traffic. As it is, I still think we are looking at big problems for Tuesday morning.
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Hey wxman- help me with something. I know how to read the freezing line on the maps that have the red/blue lines- they make it pretty obvious. But when I look at some maps, they dont delineate these lines like that. In those cases, what marks the freezing line?
THANKS!
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If you are looking at an 850mb chart, find the "540 line". That 540 thickness value usually sets up over the area where the change to rain/snow will occur. If you can find the 2M chart it'll show actual surface temps. so then you can just look for the "0" line.
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Well, I am concerned about the "I" word for us here in southern KY. Even if it turns to rain, if we get ice first, and then strong winds, we could be in trouble.
Overall, it looks like we are in for a messy, cold week, at least on my end of the state.
Thanks, Chris, and I know you will be updating often. We'll be here!
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Locally mets in Louisville calling for 3to6 inches there not expecting a changeover now so the mets now are going with all snow. We shall see!!!
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uhh lets see, LADY GA GA,RIHANNA, Kenny Chesney, BEYONCE,BLACK RYE PEAS just to name a few that would be GREAT for SUPER BOWL.
even CARRIE UNDERWOOD,
Lady GA GA is the best thing going right now outside of country musac.
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yeah, her song BAD ROMANCE should be the theme song for southern ky's winter storms...LOL>..
Ole Henry at accu. says WHAT A WILD WINTER, back to back blizzards for new england states and next weekend a snowstorm in the south that could SHUT DOWN ATLANTA...and it will probably be TOO FAR SOUTH ...
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The cool thing about a Atlanta snowstorm or a southern snowstorm they never have to fight with dry air its always a thick heavy wet snow that accumulates incredibly fast. Being that said it also melts incredibly fast usually within 24hrs. lol
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Tim, perfect choice of song for Ky's winters...LOL!
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Roloooooo: As far as your critique about The Who, I could say the same thing about our weather
Still, The Who rocks! Sure they are 50%, since Moon and Entwistle passed away, but still- Townsend can play that THANG! He invented the powercord and if anyone doubts, listen to Live at Leeds from 1967. Even Hendrix was inspired by Pete
Bad Rolo- BAD!
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Rolo: As far as your critique about The Who, I could say the same thing about our weather
Still, The Who rocks! Sure they are 50%, since Moon and Entwistle passed away, but still- Townsend can play that THANG! He invented the powercord and if anyone doubts, listen to Live at Leeds from 1967. Even Hendrix was inspired by Pete
Bad Rolo- BAD!
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I like you rolo, you're a funny guy but I couldn't disagree with you more especially as it concerns ms ga ga
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I think tonight will be a bust for most. I think most areas will see rain with a little bit of snow that doesn't lay on the roads.
Tuesday night into Wednesday could be a nice little snow across the north and north eastern parts of the state though. I just don't see S and SE KY getting much in the way of accumulating snow.
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I think Memphis TN. is getting what parts of KY. got back during the "dusting of 98'".. I dont remember seeing any advisories over their area last night, but i might be mistaking. Imaging going to bed with no BIG SIGNAL of a snowstorm, and wake up and BAM!! warnings with 6-10" possible and its snowing hard outside..that would be like CHRISTMAS MORNING!!...LOL..LOL..LOL..LOL
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Heard from a nephew that lives in the DC area. With the snow already on the ground and the big snow this weekend he said it was up to his belly-button, ha. And he's NOT a small guy. Got a picture of one of his kids (6 years old), can just see the head sticking out above the snow, ha.
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Where IS everyone today? No one is storm chatting? I need input! LOL
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I agree...no one chatting and watch this be the "BIG ONE"!
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TWC has got Louisville getting 4to7 inches of snow.
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I'm in Ashland accuweather alarm has us at 6.2 thru Wednesday.....waiting to see what Chris has to say....hoping the ice passes us and we get all snow or rain
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whats all this mean for Knox/Bell County?
I for one am so ready for Spring.I wish I could move to a warmer climate
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mainly nothing, now watch out for slick travel late tonite, but temps will move up by morning and be a rain, might see a inch or 2 tops tomm nite.
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Accuweather has Lexington getting 5 inches.
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wilmington nws is crazy. i'd like to see the what model is showing a rainstorm for us? the issue a winter storm watch for 1'' of snow???? the gfs is the warmest of the models and the 32 line stops just south of here and the nam says all snow for alot of the state, combine to two and i just dont see rainstorm. like for this last system they issued a warning and called for up to 4 inches, well clearly way more than that was possible and fell, its like they know big snow is coming but they dont want it so they wishcast.
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This storm just a feel to it that its going to be a "big one" and no one is going to expect it.
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yea i agree! things are in play for that, i think both models underdo qfp with a low over southern and southeast ky. 4-7 inches is a good call by tuesday evening with another 1-3 tuesady night of fluffy snow.
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If you take 12Z NAM and assume we stay at or below freezing all day tomorrow, we are looking at 6-10" of snow. So obviously this entire thing is banking on how far north the 0 line at 2M goes. I think LMK's north-central KY counties will get the most snow...maybe 6" or so.
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What does all this mean for Pike County. Somebody dumb it down for me.
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Cold rain, that's what... we may get a little bit tomorrow night. Oh well... the dome is in great shape, though!
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Just watching TWC they now have Paducah KY on there map getting 6-10 inches and Louisville 4-6 inches this is rather bothering me if this does pan out. There has not been a awful lot of hype on this storm but yet these totals that are being advertised are drawing a totally different picture. If some parts of KY do get these amounts this will be a disruptive snow for some especially with a wicked artic front coming into play blowing and drifting of snow will likely become a factor of some sort especially in southwestern and north central and central KY. Flash freeze is another issue that will have to be dealt with. If these mets are right on what is going to happen, funny thing about it is all mets in Louisville are agreeing with one another, that rarely happens.
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I hate see all of these opportunities for big snows not panning out for central ky. We're in the middle of February and running out of winter. On the bright side at least we have had opportunities.
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ok nws nam and gfs keep cincinnati below freezing through the event so where you get rainstorm is beyond me. could it be something other than snow, SURE!! but at 30 or so degrees there aint going to be plain rain. goodness nws is crazy.they wont even follow their own models.
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I don't know why anyone puts any faith in anything that any "weather guesser" says. this past weekend is a prime example. It was forcast for 2-4 inches the night of the "storm" and we never seen even a flurry. In a two day period this blog went from talking about 14 inch snows to no snow. It is a joke. anyone can walk outside and do as good a job of predicting the weather as any so called "meteorologist"
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Chris is laying low this morning.
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Probably laying an ambush for somebody.
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I was thinking the same thing.
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Check out this video from accuweather:
http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-demand.asp?video=58063217001&title=Blizzard%20Again%20for%20the%20East
They're stuck on the potential for an east coast blizzard (again), but it looks like it could get KY with a decent snowfall... not sure, what do you guys think?
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And this one, too:
http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-demand.asp?video=19668940001&title=Little%20Rock%20and%20Memphis%20Getting%20Hit%20Hard%20by%20Snow&ctr=2
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12z models show all snow for lexington metro now as another colder shift occured thought the gfs is close to mixing w/ rain right at the rush hour.areas along 1-64 which looked to changeover look all snow now as well.
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Does it seem like its heading into the TN Valley?
Watches/Warnings
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/wwa/wwa.gif
Radar
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?enlarge=true&animate=true
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You know what I think is funny about that map? Check the 2 or 3 counties in NC that already have the advisory. Lol, that's south of us and its definitely north of us. The dome lives on, lol. Na, really, I don't see how it could miss us that much, but the power of the dome IS great...
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This storm is getting its act together in a quick like fashion. Someone in the I-64 corridor is going to get dumped on with 6+ inches. That's dumped on for KY standards. lol
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Ok, I live in Eastern Ky. Going to the UK game tomorrow night, what kind of travel problems would I expect to run into?
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The 12z NAM looks exceptionally well for parts of KY north of I-64 and as well as it's been running lately, it's hard to bet against it. As far as southern KY goes, hang in there all hope is not lost yet.
http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_48HR.gif
http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_84HR.gif
Just hope this system keeps digging in more cold air.
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Last thing I expected when I woke up was to see the storm colder than yesterday. Even Jay Cardosi is talking about a good size snow on his blog. Kiss of death?
The Lou NWS just issued an update at 11:05 saying they would be issuing WSW to the northern area where 4-6 inches is expected.
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Winter Storm Warning now out for the Lexington Metro area and points West.
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Gosh, it was so painful for them to issue that for us. NAM is all over this storm. Going to be a MESS tomorrow!
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lol, wxman, i know what you mean!!!
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Jackson NWS also talking about issuing warnings for some of their northern counties. Didn't mention which ones, but I'm assuming it will be for the counties under the current WWA. They will also be expanding the WWA further south.
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Jackson NWS talking about issuing a Winter Storm Warning for some of their counties as well. Models are really starting to come in colder and completely eliminate rain from the forecast.
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Just hoping for either all snow or all rain do not want any ice.
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So is this going to be an all rain event in Pike Co. because it looks like we have no shot at getting in on the snow.
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Well, this could be the one we've been waiting for this year. It won't be massive, but it could put in shape to have snow on the ground the rest of the winter.
If Chris is right about the retrograding pattern, we could have a snow on snow event in the next week.
Keep fingers crossed the system doesn't get to powerful and suck too much warm air.
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Boyle County- Increasingly cloudy, 37*
http://stormtracker.yolasite.com/
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ALERT MODE BABY!!!!!!!!!
SOME METS SAYING 8+ UP HERE!!!!!!
BRING IT BABY!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Posted this in wrong section
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1127 AM EST MON FEB 8 2010
...ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA AND
NORTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING
EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND A STRONGER SYSTEM DIVING
SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA WILL BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF WINTER
PRECIPITATION TO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. AS THE TWO SYSTEMS COLLIDE...SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO KENTUCKY...RAIN
MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH THE SNOW AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
..WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS
EVENING TO 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ TUESDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM
CST/ THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ TUESDAY. THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
* TIMING: SNOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER 7 PM EST...6PM CST...AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY...BASICALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WESTERN
KENTUCKY AND BLUEGRASS PARKWAYS. THIS INCLUDES THE LOUISVILLE
AND LEXINGTON METRO AREAS.
* MAIN IMPACT: SNOW WILL COVER ROADWAYS TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW THE FREEZING MARK. SNOW WILL PRODUCE
SLICK AND HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE
TUESDAY.
* SNOWFALL AMOUNTS: SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA.
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18 at my house, forecast high of 28 doesnt look likely.
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what are y'alls thoughts for SE KY???? thanks in advance.....
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nothing, nadda zilch, maybe some snow tomm nite into wed, but we are a miss as of hig noon today..
its 33 here in my part of guncxhester on highway 80..
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well bring on spring, that my motto..
hope u 1 -64 north peeps get all u can though, be safe.
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There's the chatter I was looking for. I finally made it in a WSW -- whoo hoo!
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Haven't had a chance to look at the 12z runs. How different is the GFS and NAM?
If this upgraded forecast is based on the NAM, here is to hoping it performs better with this system than it did with the Friday night system.
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gotta love moderation.
All I said was I hope the NAM does better this time around.
How different are the NAM/GFS 12z runs?
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12z NAM:
http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=JKL
12z GFS:
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=JKL
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I don't think the moderation is anything deliberate based on your comments. Just seems it's a random glich. Somedays every time I try to post I get the moderation message, other days they go straight through without a problem.
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yea i get moderated all time, its not bout what u say as Jeff pointed out.
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Thanks Shane. I can't pull those up right now.
Jeff/Rolo- Yeah, I know. I'm thinking it has some key words or something.
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well all i know is, we down yere was lucky as crap to get the snow we did get 2 weeks ago i guess.
warm air still going make for unhappy people in the WARNINGH AREA IMO.
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Rolo, you said yesterday SE KY was going to get a big one. Changing already?
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no I said it ook good for tuesday nite into wed to see several,several inxhes of snow on backside with artic air.
never said nothing or post the words BIG ONE. sorry Betty I feel ur pain,but dont put words in my mouth.
I still say might see a inch or so after artic fronts moves in, but nothing to worry bout.
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crossing my fingers for no school tomorrow!
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oh and BIG ONE TO ME IS 12 PLUS INCHES not 3-6, so that clear that up too.
I say the border counties down to G TOWN are best bet for all snow.
ole LEGEND will update in a bit, got to go to town for a bit.
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ROLO...Some of the biggest snowstorms in U.S. in many a yr. and we are gonna miss out on it down here...
I mean an historic blizzard that will be remembered for many a generation blasted the D.C. area and not to mention they are gonna get HIT again, and then NEXT week a storm along the south that could shut the deep south down...and here we set in the middle of everything...getting our normal .."OMELET" type of ky. weather...blah...
I dont blame the NWS in JKL for NOT putting any advisories out in s.e. ky...if this storms turns out like the last one..the only advisory we'll need is yet another FLOOD advisory...how sad..YES, we've had snow, BUT YES I wanna be a part of the big blizzards too...LOL...LOL...
BTW...Memphis has 5-6" on the ground...
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I may organize a snowball fight at work tomorrow - last one was a bust because the snow was too dry. GREAT way to relieve tension...
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Winter storm warning now pushed a little further east:
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-POWELL-MENIFEE-ELLIOTT-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-MARTIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...SANDY HOOK...
WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...
PRESTONSBURG...INEZ
1227 PM EST MON FEB 8 2010
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
EST WEDNESDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7
PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
* SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING...THEN MIX WITH SOME
RAIN AND POSSIBLY SLEET ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL
CHANGE BACK OVER TO SNOW TUESDAY EVENING AS A POWERFUL ARCTIC FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY.
* TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED BY LATE
TUESDAY MORNING. AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES APPEARS LIKELY FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 3 TO 7 INCHES AS SOME
MELTING COULD OCCUR ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE TO NO ICE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
* SNOW WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY AND WET THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
MORNING...MAKING TRAVEL HAZARDOUS AND POSSIBLY DOWNING A FEW TREES
AND POWER LINES. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG WINDS AND RAPIDLY
DROPPING TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW
ZERO. ALSO...BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO
NEAR ZERO.
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Meanwhile, Mason County one county to the NW has nothing, nada...which is the opposite of last week.
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Ok, I am confused. I am in Harlan County, and it seems as if some oare saying this storm is going to be like the last one for us - which was mainly rain. So why is it that the 12z NAM and the 12z GFS that Shane posted has us anywhere between 4-8 in? This has me a little puzzled. Is it just too close to call? Any answers would be greatly appreciated! Thanks and God Bless!!!
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Location- location - location. You can tell that the amount of missed opportunities is hurting posting here now. Most of the events are trending north, so a lot of people just say "heck with it". Even the doubeters must admit it is uncanny how big events tend to either go south or north.
Anyways, if ice is outlooked, watch-out! Ice is just as easy as forecasting rain.... because it is rain!
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Channel 6 have Winter Strom Warning.
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Maybe FRANKFORT will get some snow.....i sure hope so...looks good so far...
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Looks like Frankfort is going to very well with this storm Angie!
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Frankfort 4 to 6 inch range with locally higher amounts. Like I said Louisville Frankfort and Lexington look like a bullseye with this storm. I think Louisville just because they border right on the Ohio river and southern Indiana have a real nice shot of a 8 inch snow
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YAY I need a now day .... took off today due to being sick and one more day home would be great!!
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I meant snow day on my last post. The advil cold and sinus talking....lol.
I stayed home today and could use one more day to rest. I say bring on the SNOW day !
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I'm going with 3-5" for Central KY, 5-7" for Louisville and the I-71 corridor, and less in southern KY.
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WWA issued for southern ans SE KY !
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Wonder why Louisville hasn't updated their forecast discussion- they just keep copying and pasting...
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TIRED OF ALWAYS BEING IN MODERATION!
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NOAA boys in Louisville are going with 7 inches with this snow in Jefferson Co, I-64 corridor what a mess they are in the sweet spot this will be a real nice snow for Louisville Lexington and points north no rain will be mixing in with this. Snow should develop region wide around 8 and 10pm. Enjoy north central ky and I-64 corridor this is your storm.
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NEW POST
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