Winter Storm Alert
Good afternoon everyone. We are now in full blow Winter Storm Alert mode for a system that will come at us in two pieces over the next few days. The first one comes at us overnight into the first part of Tuesday with snow and a mix of snow and freezing rain developing from south to north. This will make for a VERY messy Tuesday morning commute across the entire region.
Winter Storm Watches and Warnings and advisories are out for much of the state...
Northeastern Kentucky will be included in something before all is said and done as the NWS in Charleston jumps on board.
We have been talking about this system for several days now and the model runs continue to come in colder and colder the closer we get. This is a testament to the low level cold air that is already in place. Deep moisture will be riding northward into the region quickly this evening and overnight leading to widespread snow developing. This will switch to a period of Freezing Rain and possibly rain across parts of eastern and southeastern Kentucky for a few hours Tuesday as temps make a run toward freezing or just above for a few hours. That won't last long as an arctic front blasts through here with a dramatic temp drop by late in the day.
Here is my first call for snowfall from the first part of this system...
My confidence level is not very high right now with the snow totals as I am worried about being too conservative across the east and south. I have lower totals in these areas anticipating a little greater ice potential and then rain the farther south you go.
The second half of the storm cranks up Tuesday night through Wednesday night with several inches of snow likely across the entire area. This will be a dry snow that will blow and drift as winds reach 30-35mph. Many areas will see 6 or more inches of snow over the next 48 hours.
Wind chill readings will be very low from late Tuesday into Wednesday as well, so keep that in mind.
I will have more updates later this afternoon so be sure to check back. Until then... take care.
Winter Storm Watches and Warnings and advisories are out for much of the state...
Northeastern Kentucky will be included in something before all is said and done as the NWS in Charleston jumps on board.
We have been talking about this system for several days now and the model runs continue to come in colder and colder the closer we get. This is a testament to the low level cold air that is already in place. Deep moisture will be riding northward into the region quickly this evening and overnight leading to widespread snow developing. This will switch to a period of Freezing Rain and possibly rain across parts of eastern and southeastern Kentucky for a few hours Tuesday as temps make a run toward freezing or just above for a few hours. That won't last long as an arctic front blasts through here with a dramatic temp drop by late in the day.
Here is my first call for snowfall from the first part of this system...
My confidence level is not very high right now with the snow totals as I am worried about being too conservative across the east and south. I have lower totals in these areas anticipating a little greater ice potential and then rain the farther south you go.
The second half of the storm cranks up Tuesday night through Wednesday night with several inches of snow likely across the entire area. This will be a dry snow that will blow and drift as winds reach 30-35mph. Many areas will see 6 or more inches of snow over the next 48 hours.
Wind chill readings will be very low from late Tuesday into Wednesday as well, so keep that in mind.
I will have more updates later this afternoon so be sure to check back. Until then... take care.
Awesome! I would love to get 6+ inches. The kids are going to love it! Let's hope the snow pans out and the freezing rain doesn't.
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Thanks Chris--some of my friends in Laurel Co. were saying what they thought was going to happen but i would not believe anything until I heard it straight from you!! Thanks for your update!!
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Bring it on!!!
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So Letcher Co nothing.
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I've been hoping for big snows all year and now my daughter gets a job and I have to worry about her on the road, now looks like we may get it. Guess I hope we do just hope it is not ice and not late at night
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Boyle County- 37* cloudy
http://stormtracker.yolasite.com/
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Just great....snow days with actual snow and my son just had surgery and won't be able to enjoy a bit of it!! Go Figure!!
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Why does Channel have a Weather Strom Warning for us when we are getting less then a inch.
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Who is Channel and who is us?
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I think we're definitely in for some freezing rain in southeast KY, instead of plain ole rain...I just hope it doesn't last for hours before turning to snow.
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Blasted moderation!
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Wow. Just look at the curve of the warning border around Madison and some other counties and then it actually bend south going eastward.
Hmmm seems shaped like something with a curved shape...
Sorry, but laughter is usually the best medicine for me.
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BTW, I agree with CB and think the warning map is too far north. Needs to go south at least by one county across the state. Problem is the ice factor, so the more south being in the warning area might not be a good thing.
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The KY river stops the progress of snow from the north don't it. I guess the Darth helmet is made from the KY river
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That is not good, since suggests low altitude bias in the models. The last river hugger we saw like that was an ice storm. Perhaps just a coincidence?
If CB thought ice would be a major issue, he probably would have already mentioned it.
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CB,
Are you sure about the snow totals? This is the same system/s that will be putting more hurt on the NE. The last system we were glanced due to rain. If this is mainly snow, seems your map is infact conservative. Unless ice is more of an issue.....
THIS system could surprise some people. Not sure how yet, but just sayin'.
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You must have missed this part of his post:
"My confidence level is not very high right now with the snow totals as I am worried about being too conservative across the east and south. I have lower totals in these areas anticipating a little greater ice potential and then rain the farther south you go."
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Nope, that is why I said I agreed that the warning map was too far north. My point is his map COULD be conservative for almost everyone and not just south and east.
Stress "could" be.
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Gotcha. I think I hear a hint of that too- he does say that many area could see 6" or more. If any of us get more than 6, it would be more than he has posted, so... Yeah, it seems like he is going a little conservative over all.
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I know if the "Who-Dat" fans won the super bowl this year, then maybe the "Who-Dey" fans can win one next year....and maybe all fans of snow/cold can win in the next 48 hours
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Rock on!
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MESO DISCUSSION: Snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour moving into west Tn. this afternoon.
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What are thinking Boyle will get?
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http://stormtracker.yolasite.com/
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Suuuuuuure wish the husband had bought some fake logs to light in the fire place tomorrow -- I'm quite sure I'm gonna be snowed in! =) Thanks Snow Miser!
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Where are you at, Julie?
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Channel 6 WYMT/Hazard.
Have a Weather Strom warning on the top of screen since 11am.
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Their viewing area probally also covers counties that are under the winter storm warning. Even though Letcher Co. isn't included in the warning they have no way to select who viewing their station sees the warning icon and who doesnt.
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WYMT covers all of Southeast Ky. Pike County is under a warning so they put in on there. Doesn't mean your county necessarily.
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There is a Winter Storm Warning in effect, but it does not include Hazard. That box at the top of the screen doesn't mean it it for you, just for someone in that channel's viewing area. (like pikeville, etc)
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Chris, it sounds like you are saying that the post-frontal snows could add up to as much as 6 inches in places. Is that right or am I reading you wrong? I think I'm just reading you wrong because there is no way we're going to see a half foot from the post-frontal stuff. BTW, I think your chart looks good right now.
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you're reading it wrong- he said "Many areas will see 6 or more inches of snow over the next 48 hours."
The "over the next 48 hours" part suggests he is talking cumulative totals.
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I thought CB was talking about the 1st half - or post-frontal as WXman put it. Mainly b/c that map that CB put down was just for tonight and Tuesday. ??
I just hope we get some snow! I'm in Lexington and it is funny that 2 wknds ago, the lower 1/3 of the state got snow; this past wknd the upper 1/3 of the state got snow; so now...could it really be the middle 1/3's shot! I hope so! We really haven't had a great snow around here in a long time, and I remember the 77-78 snows. That is my comparison when I say "a great" snow. There have been a few speckled in, but history has definitely not repeated itself with regard to snowstorms in Central KY.
Love the blog...and everybody's opinions.
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He said: "The second half of the storm cranks up Tuesday night through Wednesday night with several inches of snow likely across the entire area."
But the map shows 1-2" in southeastern KY. So it sounded like he was predicting 1-2" tomorrow, and then big snows on the post-frontal side if everyone is to end up with "several inches".
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Bubba is confused. Heavy snow flowing from Tennessee, so how on earth is this stuff not hitting us this time, as it flows up? Not much dry air to cause an issue and warm air should not be as much a factor either. Surely it is not turning off as it progresses north- NE and then starting again once the southern counties are skipped.
Somebody explain to Bubba, since the warning map does not compute, based on actual weather heading "this way".
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Thats what I was saying.. I think the "BULK" will be in TN Valley as the Warnings suggested.. I maybe wrong, but it looks to be more suppressed to the south then originally thinking of both NWS.
On the other hand.. if this scoots to the N/NE we maybe prime for some to be surprised?
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bubba you gonna get snow, me and rolo are the ones gonna get the OMELET..lol..
Ole Rolo, and I are gonna be watching them shovel snow to the north, and then next week we'll be crying cause they'll be shoveling it to the south...LOL..LOL.
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Hey now, Tim...we've had our chance to shovel snow this yr. In my case, TWICE! So, if central KY folks get the good snow this time, I am more than happy for 'em! We gotta play fair and share with them too....
Not so happy with the idea of freezing rain, but that's mostly because I already have a hard enough time NOT tripping over my own shadow as it is. Freezing rain just increases my odds of being clumsy. HAHAHA!
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Dont ask me. But maybe it is temp profiles. It is 28 in lexington for example, and 36 in Somerset. ??
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actually- just remembered this isn't one system- it is two systems coming together. one is coming out of the southwest, the other dropping from Canada. It does look like Tennessee is going to get the brunt of the SW system.
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Southern States Reports- As much as 4.5 inches of snow reported in extreme northern Alabama. In Northern Mississippi as much as 6 inches reported.
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So if that is true.. you can drop this south about 100-200 miles?
http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL_84HR.gif
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Wouldn't that be a nice little surprise, Bernie?! 100 mile drop ought to do it!
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The source of the Mississippi report was a NWS employee. Location is Desoto County, Mississippi. Time of report was 11:15 am today. This is a bordering county with Tn.
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Sorry.. I meant to say.. SINCE that is true, then the NAM snowtotal map would be much further to the S/SE then what it shows? No snow forecasted in Alabama (according to the 12z NAM snowtotal map).
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That sounds REALLY intersting Bernie!
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Look at all that snow over central and northern Arkansas headed into Western Tennessee! I don't think it was supposed to snow that far south!
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Can't see maps..what's the call for LEX?
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My firewall really hates these maps... If someone could please tell me what the map says for Pike and Floyd, I'd be very appreciative.
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As of CB's last up-date, Pikeville is in the 1"-3"" range....
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Has anyone else seen the WSW posted for 41501 (Pikeville)?
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... WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY.
* RAIN AND SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING... POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ALL RAIN BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING... CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW APPEARS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME... WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ABOVE 2500 FEET.
* 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW APPEARS POSSIBLE FROM EARLY TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY... WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ABOVE 2500 FEET. LITTLE TO NO ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
* HEAVY SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT... ESPECIALLY WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO. STRONG WINDS AND RAPIDLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO.
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I got that in my email,so we do in Pikeville go under a winter storm warning tonight thru weds
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Okay, I am in Harlan County. Chris has us at an inch or less while TWC has us in a WWA saying a possible 1-3 tonight and possible 1-3 tomorrow night. What should I expect in Harlan Co.? I would just like to be prepared. Thanks and God bless!!!
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So why am I under a WWA in Harlan Co. for an inch or less? Just curious. Should I expect more?
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an advisory is what they use when winter weather will present a hazard, but does not meet warning criteria
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Temperature is 37* here in Knox Co. I just don't know about any frozen precip. down here until the artic front tomorrow...these systems really cause major HAVIC with WAA in the cumberland valley area of south east ky..
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Berea is around 35 (34.9) at the moment with overcast.
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Given how high the winds will be on the back end, what about a blowing snow advisory?
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I am so confused with all this. I'm just north of Hazard. Should I expect slick roads tomorrow morning?
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Areas ssw of us where snow is accumulating have surface temperatures of low to mid thirties.
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Temp. upper 20s....dewpoint temp. mid 20s... when this stuff gets to the LEX/FFT area it's on like Donkey Kong.
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LOL....I hope that means I'll need to get windshield wipers on my glasses!
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We were just upgraded to a winter storm warning in Johnson Co. The NWS is comming around a little more to what Chris is saying. It is 32ยบ here and getting colder by the hour!!!! Its going to be a good snow it looks like. I do wonder if we will get a two footer this winter?
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Chris has us in 1-3 inches. In the Winter Storm Warning from the NWS they have us in 3-7 inch range through Thursday night which was issued around lunch time. Usually the NWS is conservative IMO, they beat CB to the punch this time though. I think CB will be a little conservative since all METs missed the last one, I've followed this blog for over a year and no one can touch CB's accurate and consistent forecast. I want to see him up those snow totals though...! Is this the one that sneaks up on us and gives us a foot?
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Looks like I'm in the 1 inch or less area again. Congrats to those of you that are going to get some snow.
Must be nice.......
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look to me like it my be track futher S and SE as well, this would bring us in hillbilly heaven back into play. hmmmmmm
this just my untrained eye, but by look over radar/sat loop and other observations that what I see.
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Can I be the first to mention the southern storm later this week? How likely is it that it stays that far south? Could be one to watch for a sudden shift north. Just thinking, especially for those missing out tonight.
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I think we get 4-8
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how's about clay county now??? hoping for a thumpin', would settle for 2-3 inches...any thoughts welcomed..:-p
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Will be interesting to see there is chance in the next model run or two if it looks like temps will not rise as much as expected in the atmosphere tomorrow and if the snow totals will increase for us? There is a question here although I did not do a good job asking it? Are the snow estimates conservative?
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Anyone out there right now getting any snow...? Radar showing snow over parts of central ky...is it hittin the ground....?
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I'm hopin' & wishin' for another big snow but I would take 3-4 inches.
Just hope it don't have any freezin' rain in that...
Hope everyone stays safe.
Thanks CB for all the updates & hard work you put into this blog.
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Don't forget about the snow eating Northeast wind blowing in East Ky we've got going on. That can cut into precip totals...
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All I can say is you better be right! After this weekend, I have my doubts about this particular storm. I need some snow days!!! We haven't had that many here in Rowan County and it's time for a little break. Throw some of that snow our way
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I agree my daughter goes to RCSHS. She needs a snow day esp after her first day of work.
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major temp bust today
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New 18Z nam just came out it is alot drier not good.
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Not sure what you are looking at!? Looks about the same.
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18z NAM keeps almost everyone all snow for the duration of the event except for extreme southern and SE KY. Total QPF thru Wednesday night appears to be in the .5 range. Given Tuesday night and Wednesday will be so cold, ratios may reach 12-15:1 so things appear to be looking better for a decent snowfall.
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New NAM keeps almost everyone all snow for the duration of the event except for extreme southern and SE KY. Total QPF thru Wednesday night appears to be in the half an inch range. Looking better.
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New NAM keeps almost everyone all snow for the duration of the event except for extreme southern and SE KY. Looking better all the time.
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So why does the post above say alot drier? I live in HArlan County which is extreme SE KY lol, figures, but I would love to understand why this storm lays snow in freakin alabama and Tennessee and Arkansas, and here in KY, we always get the shaft... Keep in mind we are at a more northerly latitude. and after it surpasses KY, it lays snow to areas East of us. It just bewilders me at how stupid KY winters can be.
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So was the NAM good for snow totals or bad because Chris D said the 18z nam was drier?
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NAM was a tad drier than the 12z run, but not by much unless you live in NE KY. That's where the biggest difference is. Eastern and Central KY pretty much stayed the same as far as QPF goes.
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In my opinion, the 12z and 18z were about as consistent for Eastern & Central KY as I've seen two model runs be this winter. Hope THAT trend continues... LOL!
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Can someone post a link to the new NAM?
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Here is a comparison:
12z:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_p60_066l.gif
18z:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_p60_060l.gif
As you can see, not much of a difference other than NE KY and SW KY
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So the NAM showing .5-.75 of liquid for most of KY. Does that mean if we got a snow ratio of 10 to 1 we could possibly get up to 7.5 inches?
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If we get 10:1 ratios then yes, your math is correct. However, Tuesday night and Wednesday could see ratios higher than that due to cold temperatures.
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Your math is correct. However, Tuesday night and Wednesday could see ratios higher than that due to cold temperatures.
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You are correct.
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KY winters SUCK!
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The NWS in Charleston has issued a Winter Storm Warning.
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO
7 PM EST WEDNESDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. SNOW...
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEN CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
SNOW SHOULD THEN TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOME
OF THE SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN ON TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA.
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO
8 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
350 PM EST MON FEB 8 2010
KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>007-009>011-
017>020-029>032-090500-
/O.NEW.KRLX.WS.W.0007.100209T1000Z-100211T0000Z/
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-
WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-GILMER-LEWIS-
HARRISON-TAYLOR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLATWOODS...GREENUP...GRAYSON...
OLIVE HILL...ASHLAND...LOUISA...NEW LEXINGTON...CROOKSVILLE...
SOMERSET...MCCONNELSVILLE...STOCKPORT...ATHENS...MARIETTA...
BELPRE...JACKSON...WELLSTON...OAK HILL...MCARTHUR...HAMDEN...
POMEROY...GALLIPOLIS...IRONTON...SOUTH POINT...KENOVA...CEREDO...
WAYNE...HUNTINGTON...POINT PLEASANT...NEW HAVEN...PARKERSBURG...
VIENNA...ST. MARYS...BELMONT...PADEN CITY...SISTERSVILLE...
MIDDLEBOURNE...ELIZABETH...GRANTSVILLE...HARRISVILLE...
PENNSBORO...WEST UNION...GLENVILLE...WESTON...CLARKSBURG...
BRIDGEPORT...GRAFTON
350 PM EST MON FEB 8 2010
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO
7 PM EST WEDNESDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. SNOW...
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEN CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
SNOW SHOULD THEN TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOME
OF THE SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN ON TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA.
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO
8 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.
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Drats. Richmond and my Bernie's Berea ain't in any of this warning...... not much to say, at this curreny point in time, except "drats".
Keep an eyey out on the CB postometer. It increases, so usually does the threat. Drats.
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It is oddly quiet on here for this upcoming event! It's 31 here in Richmond and it looks like a whole lot of stuff on the radar heading this way! My forcasted high was 40, did not make that today! I hope I wake up in a winter wonderland tomorrow!
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Gun shy from the previous event.
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I live in the London area , my mother has a dr's appt in lexington tomorrow what does it look like in that area should we go down tonight or wait?
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Why isn't Northern Kentucky in the Winter Storm Warning?
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Because Northern Kentucky has been ceded to Alaska!!
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Can you see Northern KY from your house?
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We are!!!
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It's 35 here in London and according to the nws it was suppose to be 38 around 4 pm so temps lower than than they forcasted .... If any one knows does the NAM keep London in the all snow?? Or not
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Hey, has anyone noticed that the NWS office in Wilmington, Ohio must be asleep?? There is quite an odd hole in the Winter Storm Warning area. Scioto county is not even under a watch or an advisory!! Weird.
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Jim C said Eastren KY between 3-6 though thrusday.
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If JC says snow, I'm thinking rain... I don't even think he can read the models, I think he just looks outside and takes a guess. Q95 in Pburg on the way home said less than an inch of accumulation... Best thing to do is rely on CB and the NWS.
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Trying to keep hopes up, but.... the NWS just cut back on snow totals for Lexington.
Still within the range on Chris' map though.
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It's still 4-6 inches isn't it?
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From their discussion (for the record, I'd still be happy as a clam with 4", it'd be the most we've gotten all year)
FOR NOW WE WILL CONTINUE WITH OUR WINTER STORM WARNING AND ADVISORY THAT WAS ISSUED EARLIER TODAY RUNNING IT THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. WE HAVE CUT BACK ON SNOW TOTALS IN SOME AREAS WITH AROUND 4 INCHES EXPECTED IN THE LOUISVILLE AND LEXINGTON AREAS AND 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY WHERE THE WARMEST AIR IS EXPECTED.
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Never mind!! They just filled it in. Still don't know how you go from hazardous weather outlook to winter storm warning within three minutes time though! lol!!!
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I've got to take a shot at the Louisville NWS. They have been dragged kicking and screaming on this forecast. Since Friday, they have been relying on their view a warm tongue of air will sweep in change everything to rain from Louisville south.
Even as the modeling grew colder, they hestated until this morning when they finally caved and went with a WSW. That was after they went with a WWA.
As best I can tell, each model has an all snow event from 40 miles south of Louisville to the north. Then all of the sudden their trusty GFS showed their desired warm air tongue making it to Louisville and they bit.
The GFS is the only model I can find that warms the air to 33 in Louisville and brings in rain. The Euro, NAM, NOGAPS, and UKMet don't. Still, one out of five was good enough for them.
They may well be right, but they seem to be ignoring the majority of them computer models.
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I agree- and they keep changing the forecast. Now they are backing off snow totals for louisville and lexington. lol
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As tommy alluded to earlier, ILN is still pretty bullish that rain will come as far north as the Ohio River during the day tomorrow....
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JKL NWS
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/jkl/?n=sigwx_winter
LMK
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lmk&storyid=47983&source=0
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Glad the advisories and warnings are actually reasonable for this storm!
Looking at the latest models, I believe this won't disappoint anyone, and it won't sneak up and surprise anyone..
I just updated my snowfall map on the east Kentucky weather blog. I am pretty confident with my numbers and with Chris'
--------------------
East Kentucky Weather
www.ekywx.com
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If that warm air comes up into central KY, I really do wonder how we ever got medium snows in this area....Temps are not as warm today as forecast, perhaps the same tomorrow.
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Well, if anything, this is the first time in forever I remember looking out my office window and seeing piles of snow in the parking lot from >1 week ago and more snow coming. Piles on piles is cool
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What can I expect for Harlan Co.? Any answers greatly appreciated. Thanks and God Bless!!!
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Bubba..I think we fall under some ICE
http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_NAM212_SFC_ACCUM-FZRN_84HR.gif
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bro bernie watch your mouth I dont want Ice! i would rather have nothing at all...
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Yep, as usual, a tight rope, fence, whatever.
Once again, a system with conflict by local mets and NWS. NWS suggests war air will move up to the KY / OH birder, which would mean we are spared the ice. Others are calling for snow and the cutoff for ice being southern Richmond & Berea. Such fine lines suggest another "will not know til we get it" systems
Be nice to be in the sweet spot for once after many years, but perhaps we should just accept that it is what it is. Not what we want, but that's it.
I can say this though. If the current system hugs the river and the cold air hangs around, we will get mainly ice and then some snow. River huggers mean low altitude bias, since the river temp acts like a wall.
Thank heavens I am not a met and CB is. The hope is a miss or snow- little to no ice, thank you
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This looks like mostly snow for Lexington and West to Louisville
http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getptype.cgi?region=us&model=nam&run=18&fhr=99&field=ptype
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Sure looks like just as much green stuff as blue stuff during the modle progression of the result through time.
If green stuff is also ice rain, we do not want that map including Lex.
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bro bernie watch your mouth I don't want ice!! would rather have nothing at all
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By the sounds of the DISCUSSION out of NWS in JKL..looks like a great big mess...especially here in the southeast...ice,rain,mix,snow,..
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TG just gave us in Southern Ky. the kiss of death for snow totals only 1-2" thru Wed.
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At least better than ice.
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KYTC Statewide Road Condition Status as of 2/8/2010 5:07:03 PM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DISTRICT: 1
Contact:
Temp: 34
Weather: Flurries
Counties Out:
Standby:
BALLARD
HICKMAN
FULTON
FULTON
GRAVES
CALLOWAY
LIVINGSTON
TRIGG
CRITTENDEN
MARSHALL
MCCRACKEN
LYON
CARLISLE
Comments: District Office Open
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my map
http://i221.photobucket.com/albums/dd227/coloradofella/TOMMYCALL.jpg
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nws seems to agree
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day1_psnow_gt_04.gif
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I'm personally still not convinced about snow totals in southern KY... this has potential freezing rain event written all over it to me. I think we see some snowgoing into Wednesday but the question is what happens Tuesday and when.
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