Author Archives: Chris Bailey

Tracking Halloween Week Changes

Good Saturday, folks. Our weekend of weather continues to look like the winner of the month of October. Mild temps and gusty winds will dominate the pattern for the next few days. That all changes next week as blasts of chilly air take aim at our region. There’s even the potential for an out and out very cold shot by Halloween weekend. Maybe some winter weather?

Oh yea… I will also have some longer range goodies for ya.

Let’s start with where we are now. Highs today should range from the upper 60s to low 70s with a mix of sun and clouds. Winds will be very gusty as a weak cold front works in. Can that front touch off a shower? The chances are very, very small, but it’s worth a mention.

Current temperatures

Sunday looks like another fantastic fall day as temps come down just a bit for some areas.

The final work week of October starts warm with temps surging well into the 70s for Monday. That warm air is ahead of a strong cold front that arrives Tuesday with a line of showers and thunderstorms…

EuroGusty winds, showers and colder air will then carry us into Wednesday. Highs will come way down and be in the 50s. Those 50s should be around into Thursday.

That’s when we focus our attention on the next system rolling in for Halloween weekend. The models have been all over the place with how to handle this possible cold shot and that’s to be expected.The European Model has gone all in on a stronger storm system…

EuroThat would produce wintry weather around here if it verifies. That’s a very interesting solution that could be… yea. Anyway, it matches the European Ensembles from a few days ago.

The GFS continues to advertise the cold and a touch of winter…

GFSYes, that particular run shows some Halloween snowflakes being possible, but nothing like the European…

GFS 4 Check out the temperatures for trick or treat time…


Saturday Morning lows are forecast to be deep into the 20s.

GFS 3That’s a heck of a way to say goodbye to October and hello to November. We still have a ways to go, but it’s certainly something for us to keep a very close eye on.

The seasonal CFS model continues to advertise colder than normal air coming from mid November into early December…


The corresponding snow numbers for each of those 10 day periods…


CFS 3It will be interesting to see if that model can remain consistent in the coming days as they usually bounce around a lot.

Have a great day and take care.


Friday Evening Update

Good evening, gang. I wanted to drop by for a brief update on the potential cold shot coming our way in about a week. Of course, that’s Halloween, so the forecast carries a little more weight than normal.

The models continue to advertise a big dip in the jet stream, but vary from run to run on how strong of a system we will be dealing with. The GFS is back on board for a healthy blast of cold…


GFS 2  GFS TEMPS 1A full update comes your way tonight. See ya then.

Take care.


A Great Weekend Ahead

Good Friday and welcome to the weekend. We have a pretty nice weather weekend kicking off here in the bluegrass state. Temps will take a walk on the mild side with mainly dry conditions. Enjoy it, because several systems look to bring some big changes as we head into Halloween week.

There is a very weak system pushing across our region today. This is spitting out some clouds and there is a small threat for a few sprinkles or a light shower.

Current temperatures

Temps should warm toward 70 if not a little higher on Saturday. Winds will become gusty from the southwest and could reach 25mph at times. Those winds area ahead of a weak cold front that sweeps in later in the day. While it looks dry, I wouldn’t be totally surprised to see a stray shower on radar.

Sunday looks equally as nice with slightly cooler air in the central and east. Enjoy this weekend!

Changes show up by Tuesday as a strong cold front pushes in from the northwest. That will bring gusty showers and storms that hang around into early Wednesday…

Euro 2

Temps will come tumbling down with readings in 50s for highs by the middle of the week. What happens after this continues to be the weather question of the moment. The GFS has been advertising a taste of winter weather across the eastern half of the country for Halloween weekend. Other models, like the European Ensembles, joined the mix…


What does the GFS do once it gets friends to play with? It takes its ball and goes home. The overnight run of the model totally abandoned the cold weather idea. The European Model held serve with it…


That’s still a week away and we have a lot of time to figure out this plays out. The models are not getting the normal amount of data ingested into them, so some wild swings are likely until that problem is resolved.

I will have another update later this evening, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.


Halloween Weekend Update

Good Thursday evening. Halloween weekend continues to get more and more of my attention. The GFS has been advertising the potential for a taste of winter that weekend and now other models are swinging that direction.

Here’s the latest from the GFS…


That would suggest the POTENTIAL for the first flakes of the season and would also unleash some very cold air. Check out the low temps in the days that follow…


The GFS Ensembles are now on board with a deep trough digging into our region during the same time…GFS 4

The European Model had been 100% opposite of the GFS and was showing a very warm Halloween weekend. That is no longer the case…

EuroAs I said… this is looking a little interesting from around a week away. The overall pattern appears to be favorable for the jet stream to take a big dip around this time. Will it be to the extent on the models above? We shall see. 8 days is a long time in the world of weather!

Have a good one and take care.



A Few Changes To The Weekend Forecast

Good Thursday, everyone. Much better weather is rolling into the bluegrass state as the stubborn clouds and chilly air works to our east. This will set the stage for milder weather to move in for the upcoming weekend, but I have made a few changes to the forecast.

Let’s start with today’s weather.

Many area will likely wake up to some frost on the pumpkins with temps in the low and middle 30s. Skies will become partly sunny during the afternoon with temps nearing 60 in the east and upper 60s out west.

A very weak system blows in tonight and Friday and may have just enough juice to spit out isolated showers or a few sprinkles. This doesn’t look like a big deal with temps mainly in the 60s with a mix of sun and clouds.

Saturday looks mild with temps heading toward the upper 60s to lower 70s for many. Remember a few days ago when I said some models were trying to knock the temps down by Sunday? Well, that appears to be the case as we get closer to the weekend as another weak front crosses the state. Check out the forecast highs from the European Model…


That’s a pretty good drop in readings across central and eastern Kentucky, especially. The question then becomes… can we squeeze out a shower when that front passes? Something to keep a close eye on in the coming days.

Next week will start warm with 70s for Monday. That’s when we watch a stronger cold front plow our way by later Tuesday and Wednesday with a line of showers and thunderstorms. Chillier air pours in behind that front for the middle of the week.

The GFS continues to want to spit out some wintry weather around here on Halloween…


GFS 2It should be noted the models are not getting the normal amount of satellite data, so some pretty wild swings will likely show up. Moral of the story… take the above maps with a grain of salt. :)

I’ve been talking a lot about November lately, and how the models are trying to show a cold and active pattern setting up. The CFS continues to trend in that direction. Check out a 10 day stretch from November 6th-16th…


That’s some impressive cold showing up on that model. The same model continues to be bullish on some snow for much of the country during the same time…

CFS 2Make it a great day and watch for another evening update. Tis’ that time of the year. ;)

Take care.


Trick Or Treat From The GFS?

Good Wednesday evening, gang. Our old friend the GFS is trying to hand out a few tricks for Halloween with it’s latest run. Check this out…


Yes, that particular model run would throw some snow our way Halloween night…

GFSIs that going to happen? The odds are very, very, very, very low of us getting snow on Halloween. I think that run is more of a trick than a treat to snow lovers. :)

Enjoy your evening and take care.


Looking Toward Early November

Good Wednesday to one and all. Windy and chilly weather continues to rule the weather roost across central and eastern Kentucky. It has another day or so left in the tank before milder temps push in here for the weekend into early next week. That’s when our pattern begins to take on a much more active look as we get set to usher in November.

I’m even looking farther down the road toward winter with one of the newest seasonal model forecasts.

Temps today will range from the low and mid 50s across much of central and eastern parts of the state. The west is best with temps much milder.

Thursday starts cold with the potential for 30s and frost into much of the region. Again, clouds and winds will have to “chill out” for frost to form. Most areas already picked up their first frost a few weeks ago.

A weak system dives in from the northwest Thursday night into Friday. That will throw some clouds in here and I can’t rule out a scattered shower or two going up. Winds will be gusty as temps come up a few degrees with most areas seeing 60s for highs.

The weekend looks awesome to get out and check out the fall colors. Gusty winds will still be an issue, but these will be milder winds blowing. We may see a healthy temperature gradient setting up from east to west. Mid and upper 60s in the far east with near 80 in the far west?

A big cold front is on the way by Tuesday of next week…


That should spawn a line of gusty showers and thunderstorms as it races through here. That may take our temps from above normal to a bit below normal by the middle of next week…


From there, we will likely see some back and forth with the temperatures. That’s typical for this time of year as we slowly transition toward winter. Several models continue to hint at a potential winter looking system sometime in the first week of November…


That’s from the GFS and several runs of late have been going wild with cold air pouring into the country in early November. Check out these numbers from its last run…


The GFS Ensembles show a very potent storm system from two weeks out…

GFS 5 We shall see how that one plays out.

The new JAMSTEC model is out with the outlook for winter. Here are two important factors it’s picking up on…

Japan Model

It still shows the warm pool of water off the west coast into the Gulf of Alaska. It also shows a weak El Nino becoming central based. Those two are pretty good to see together if you’re a fan of winter weather around here. Sure enough, the actual December-February looks like this…Japan Model 2A colder than normal winter with above normal precipitation could get interesting. That’s assuming the model is correct. ;)

Have a great day and take care.


Nor’easter Impacting Our Weather

Good Tuesday, folks. A big Nor’easter is just begging to develop and this will have a decent impact on our weather in the coming days. Windy and chilly weather will be common for most of the week before temps begin to warm some by the weekend.

Check out the strong north and northeasterly wind flow coming around this storm…


That means chilly temps and the potential for a few showers today into Wednesday. Those winds will make it feel even colder than what your thermometer says.

Lows from Wednesday through Friday will likely drop into the 30s.

Improving conditions are likely by Friday into the weekend as our skies clear up. The temperatures during this period will be warmer and we could hit 70 this weekend. The GFS continues to point in that direction with above normal temps…


The European Model continues to show a colder solution for Sunday…

Euro It then turns milder for Monday as we await the arrive of another cold front by later Tuesday and Wednesday. You can still see the model showing something tropical near Cuba. That’s a whole other mess that will have to sort itself out in the coming days.

Have a great day and take care.


Below Normal Temps This Week

Good Monday, weather weenies. October is rolling right along and the colder than normal temps are doing the same. This is another week with average temps coming in below where we should be for this time of year. Much of that will be courtesy of a big east coast storm system.

Let’s get into it.

A system dives in from the northwest today and will bring an increase in clouds and the possibility of a few showers. Highs will range from the upper 50s north to mid 60s in the far west and south.

Current temperatures

Showers will increase a bit tonight into Tuesday as the storm passes to our east. That’s when this bad boy develops into a nor’easter…


That means gusty winds and chilly temps for our region into the middle of the week. We could also see a shower or two popping during this time. Overall, that’s a very blustery looking weather map.

The system SLOWLY pulls away by the end of the week. This is when we see the models disagreeing on where this pattern takes us. I suspect a lot of that is because of how the develop and handle a tropical system down in the Gulf of Mexico. Maybe the storm I said to watch for in September is fashionably late to the party? :)

The GFS shows that system zooming eastward across Florida and into the Atlantic and replacing with a ridge of high pressure that warms us into the 70s. It then follows that up with a decent cold front early next week…

GFS 2The European Model looks very different and slows that tropical system down across Florida, allowing for a trough to dive in from the northwest this weekend…


That could make for an interesting weather map if the European verifies.

I will say this… I do favor a decent mild spell at some point over the next couple of weeks. The pattern argues for it, but it was arguing for it this week, too. The models have been hinting at a mild start to November, but they are changing their tune as we get closer. A few runs of the GFS have even hinted at the first flakes flying during that time.

The CFS has shifted from a warmer than normal November to one that is colder than normal…


There’s a little bit of 2002 to this fall pattern and that led us into a sizeable severe weather outbreak in early November with a harsh winter that followed.

Have a great day and take care.


Temps Stay On The Chilly Side

Good Sunday, everyone. The weekend is wrapping up with another chilly day on tap for the commonwealth. This chill looks to become the norm as we roll into the full week ahead of us. Could this be a sign of things to come for the winter? One signal is strongly suggesting that to be the case.

More on that in a bit. Let’s talk about the short term forecast to start things out.

Our day is starting off with patchy frost for those areas that wake up with clear skies. Regardless of clouds or not to start, things turn partly sunny as the day wears on. Highs today will only be in the 50s.

Our next system rolls in later Monday into Tuesday. That will throw some showers back into parts of the bluegrass state. This system then cranks up into a nor’easter by the middle of the week…


Most of the rainy impact from that storm will likely stay to our east, but the wind and chilly temps will make their presence felt. Temps continue to average well below normal…

Euro 3

If that storm can manage to throw clouds or showers our way on those days… high temps could struggle to get to 50 degrees.

As you know, I have been keeping close eye on the amount of snow cover building up across the Northern Hemisphere. Many studies show an expansive October snow cover(especially across Eurasia)  leads to increased blocking during the winter months. That’s exactly what you want for cold air to dominate the pattern around here and across much of the eastern part of the country.

Snow cover is off to the races across the northern hemisphere, especially in Eurasia…

Snow Cover

I’ve been looking back through the years to find years that had as much snow cover through this same point and there aren’t many. It would appear this year is running very close with those infamous years from the late 1970s. Those produced some of the harshest winters ever around here.

Snow cover is just one thing to take into consideration, but it’s a pretty big one to look at. As always, we shall see how the rest of fall rolls in that department before getting too excited.

Have a great day and take care.