Author Archives: Chris Bailey

A Busy First Week Of August

Good Saturday everyone and welcome to August. The month is off and running on a very nice weather note across the bluegrass state. It’s looking more and more like the nice part of the weather program may not be sticking around very long. The stormy setup we’ve had much of the summer is trying to force its way back into the bluegrass state.

Today will feature temps down a few degrees from what we had on Friday. The low humidity levels remain, but there is also a small threat for a popup storm or two.

Readings bounce back to typical early August numbers later Sunday into early next week. This is ahead of a couple of cold fronts on the way next week. These will bring scattered storms early in the week, but the greatest concentration comes during the second half of the week…

GFS

That’s a very unsummer looking system working across the Ohio Valley. Showers and storms are forecast by the GFS and European Models to become fairly widespread during that time. That’s being pushed by a significant dip in the jet stream that allows much cooler air to dive in here…

GFS 2

With a northwesterly wind flow, another system or two will try to dive in here a few days later…

GFS 3

That setup is obviously can skew numbers cooler than normal for a while, but can also cause some additional rounds of heavy rains. The GFS rain forecast shows some high totals…

GFS 4

Make it a great day and take care.

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Tracking Changes For Early August

Good Friday, everyone. The last day of July is off and running and it’s looking to be a far cry from how we’ve spent most of the month. This has been a top 5 wettest July on record for many cities, but the month is wrapping up on a picture perfect note. If you think this is nice, there’s a chance we do it a little better in about a week.

Let’s start with where we are and roll ahead. The day may start with several areas sneaking into the upper 50s! Highs will be back in the low and middle 80s for much of the state with low humidity levels. Skies stay sunny.

Saturday’s temps will be just a bit warmer than today in the west and about the same central and east. There is the smallest chance for isolated showers and storms.

A better chance for isolated showers and storms will move in for Sunday and Monday as temperatures rebound. Humidity levels will also inch up, but nothing like what we just had a few days ago.

Cold fronts then get set to dive in here from the northwest. This will cause an increase in showers and storms from Tuesday through Thursday. The bigger news may be the cooler air pushing the storms through here. The temperature departures from normal on the GFS…

GFS TEMPS 1

The timing and depth of the cool is in question. I think there is a good chance all that gets pushed back a few days because of a stalled out boundary.

If you know anything about the GFS, you will know just how bad this upgraded model has been with temps this summer. It’s a constant heat wave outside of 48 hours and has routinely been showing 100 degree temps around here. To say it’s failed would be an understatement, so to actually see the model sensing the cooler air is impressive in itself.

From the “for fun and games” category, the GFS low temps for next Saturday morning…

GFS TEMPS 2Check out the high mountains just to our east. That is highly unlikely, but it’s an indication of the season just around the corner.

Make it a great day and take care.

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A Better Brand Of Air Blowing In

Good Thursday, everyone. We have some much better air pushing back into the bluegrass state as we get ready to close out July. This is all part of a pattern that should skew cooler than normal into the first half of August. The big question is… Will that pattern turn back into a stormy one?

Our day will start on the muggy side with the front slowly dropping south across the state. Isolated showers and storms will be possible early on. Humidity levels will decrease from north to south as the day wears on with highs mainly in the low and middle 80s for many. Higher numbers may be noted in the south and far west just ahead of the front.

Friday looks absolutely great with highs in the low and middle 80s with mostly sunny skies and comfortable humidity levels. Not a bad way to say goodbye to such an ugly month.

Our northwesterly wind flow over the weekend will mean a couple of weak disturbances may dive in with isolated showers and storms. The best chance looks to be on Sunday. You can see how this flow gets established into early next week…

Euro

Climatology tells us this is the hottest part of the year, so that’s a pretty good look to see around these parts. Lots of daily highs for next week will be in the low and middle 80s.

Can the pattern turn back into a stormy one? Unfortunately, yes. Notice the little dips in the jet stream showing up toward the end of next week…

Euro 2That could put our region in the line of fire for clusters of storms working in from the west. Again, that’s a good look for temperatures!

Let’s track today’s better conditions moving in…

Make it a great day and take care.

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Tracking A Strong Cold Front

Good Wednesday to one and all. We have a cold front moving into the region today and this front will produce some additional rounds of thunderstorms. This front will also usher in a much better brand of air as we close out July and say a hearty hello to August.

Steam and storms will be the main players out there today. Temps will be around 90 degrees, but humidity levels will make it feel quite a bit hotter than that. The storms that crank could be strong and put down a ton of rain. Local flash flooding is a definite possibility, again. Your tracking tools in a bit.

That front pushes to our south and east late Thursday. The early part of the day can still crank a shower or storm with the cooler and drier air sinking in as the day wears on. There should still be a nice temp/humidity gradient from north to south early on.

Friday looks pretty darn good with low and middle 80s for many with much lower humidity levels.

The first weekend of August will feature a mix of sun and clouds with pretty nice temperatures. I can’t rule out a stray shower or storm going up in this northwesterly flow. The readings will inch up a bit as we await the arrival of the next cold front early next week. That means an increase in showers and thunderstorms as the front slowly pushes in.

The air coming in behind that for the middle and end of next week…

GFS TEMPS 1Let’s track today’s increase in storms…

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

Have a great day and take care.

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Storms Lead To Better Weather

Good Tuesday, folks. More in the way of scattered showers and storms are on the way for the next couple of days. This action is ahead of the first in a series of cold fronts that will bring much better weather into our part of the world. The air behind these fronts will grow cooler with each shot all the way through the middle of August.

Highs today will make a run toward 90 for areas who miss out on any scattered shower or storm action. The storms that are out there could put down some very heavy rains that could cause some local high water issues. Some strong boomers will also be possible.

A cold front dives in from the northwest late Wednesday with showers and storms becoming a bit more widespread. Watch how the storms progress through here from Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday…

NAM

That’s some MUCH better air coming in behind that front on Thursday. Check out the highs on Thursday…

NAM 2

Similar temps will be noted on Friday with fairly low humidity levels.

Additional cooler than normal shots are lining up for the first half of August. Temps will spike just a bit, as usual, ahead of each front that moves through, but the overall theme is cooler. Look at the dips showing up on the GFS Ensembles…

GFS 2

Even the GFS is FINALLY starting to see this. Check out the departures by early next week…

GFS

I guess this means the GFS weather reporters will be changing forecasts for next week? 😉

Here are today’s regularly scheduled tracking toys…

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

Have a great day and take care.

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Scattered storms start the week

Good Monday, everyone. The month of July is quickly running out of days and we will soon turn our attention to the start of another school year and football. As it sounds now, August continues to show up on a pretty cool note across much of the country.

Between now and then, we have some steam and scattered storms to contend with.

Those scattered storms will be noted out there today and some of them could be a little strong and put down locally heavy amounts of rain. Temps today should be held down some compared to our Sunday, but the increase in humidity will make it feel steamy.

Tuesday and Wednesday will feature a scattered storm or two with additional steamy temps. Highs should hit the 90-95 range in the west with near 90 degree highs for the rest of the area. Again, humidity levels will toast that up some.

A cold front arrives late Wednesday into early Thursday with a better shot at some showers and storms. That front is being pushed by a decent dip in the jet stream. That dip then gets more pronounced this weekend into early next week…

Euro 2

That knocks temps down on a strong northwesterly wind flow. You can see how the air coming in early next week is much cooler than normal…

Euro 3

That’s the beginning of what should be a very cool first half of August for much of the country. Watch the progression in 5 day increments…

CFS  CFS 2

CFS 3If you’re a fan of typical summer temps… Enjoy the next couple of days. 😉

I leave you with your tracking toys of the day…

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

Have a great day and take care.

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Big Changes Ahead

Good Sunday, everyone. The final weekend of July is wrapping up with some typical summer temperatures across our part of the world. All of that is about to change as our weather pattern takes on more of a late September look and feel as we end the month and work into early August.

Highs today will be back into the mid and upper 80s for much of central and eastern Kentucky with a 90 in the west. A storm or two will develop as our flow aloft continues to come from the northwest. Throw in a weak disturbance moving in for Monday, and you get a better chance for some storm clusters…

NAM

Temps on Monday will likely be, at least, a little cooler than today.

Isolated storms will again be possible on Tuesday as temps try to get to 90 degrees in some areas. The same can be said for Wednesday, but showers and storms will increase by the afternoon and evening. That’s in response to a strong cold front dropping in from the northwest. That ushers in a much better brand of air for the end of the week into the weekend…

Euro

Notice the areas of low pressure trying to develop from the Gulf up the east coast. The models are trying to figure out if those are just regular lows or something tropical.

All of this is being fueled by a deep trough digging into the eastern half of the country…

Euro 2

I’m looking at that and wondering if we can get something to cut off across our region. That’s something to watch as we go forward.

I’ve been talking about how strong El Ninos (and we certainly have one) can produce some pretty hefty late summer and fall cool shots. The models continue to point toward the first half of August as featuring below normal readings. Here’s the CFS for the first few days of the month…

CFS

The following 10 days…

CFS 2

That’s cool… literally and figuratively.

Does that mean summer is over? No, but we really haven’t had much of one for the third straight year. In honing in on some of the fall analog years, don’t be surprised if we don’t pop a little hot stretch post Labor Day. 😉

For the past few months, I’ve told you how fascinated by the current strong El Nino that’s developing. The whole setup has no true analog and that will make for some fun forecasting times as we head closer to winter.

I leave you with your Sunday tracking toys…

 

 

Have a great day and take care.

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Tracking A Busy Late July Pattern

Good Saturday, everyone. We have a typical summertime weekend ongoing across the bluegrass state. Very warm temps and a small chance of isolated storms will highlight the weather. All of that starts to change as we head into next week as storms increase, temps decrease and the tropics try to come to life.

Highs today will generally run in the mid and upper 80s across central and eastern Kentucky with a 90 in the west. There is a small threat for a popcorn shower or thunderstorm going up. Sunday will see similar temps with a better shot for a shower or storm cranking.

Those chances should increase a bit as we head into Sunday night and Monday as a system dives in from the northwest. Here’s the NAM simulated radar…

NAMThe Canadian Model has some pretty good storm clusters…

CanadianWe need to keep a close eye on that setup as we do have the potential for some strong boomers that can put down very heavy rains.

Scattered storms will be around into Tuesday and Wednesday as temps climb to around 90 degrees. A cold front is forecast to dive in here toward the end of the week. It’s during this time we see several computer models indicating a potential tropical system developing off the southeast coast. The European is one of them…

Euro

That’s interesting to see and will be fun to watch how the trough and potential tropical system interact with one another.

The development of a deepening trough continues to show up into the first week of August. That would mean some cooler than normal temps around here and across much of the country.

The GFS Ensembles are also indicating lowering heights across the Gulf of Mexico…

GFSThat could lead to some tropical mischief in the Gulf.

Make it a great Saturday and take care.

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Typical Summer Weather Ahead

Good Friday to one and all. We haven’t had a lot of normal summer weather this year across the bluegrass state, but that looks to change in the days ahead. Temps will steam up as we tracking typical afternoon and evening pop up storms. In true fashion for the summer we are having, ‘normal’ isn’t going to last very long.

Highs today will generally run in the middle 80s in the central and east to upper 80s in the west. Skies will be partly sunny with a small threat for a popup storm.

Saturday’s forecast looks similar as temps rise a few degrees.

Sunday into early next week will find daytime highs ranging from the upper 80s to low 90s across the state. A couple of systems dive in here from the northwest with some rounds of showers and storms trying to fire up. We will have to watch and see if that setup can give us some decent storm clusters.

This normal version of summer heat should get wiped out pretty quickly later next week into the first few days of August. A deep trough looks likely to dig into much of the eastern half of the country…

Euro

That’s an idea strongly supported by the various computer models I look at. The GFS Ensembles even try to spin something up down in the Gulf as the trough develops…

GFS TEMPS 1

That model shows another trough digging in several days later…

GFS TEMPS 2

European Ensembles also like the cool start to August…

Euro 2

All of that matches up well with what the CFS has been advertising for a while. It continues to do so…

CFSYour scaled down version of the tracking tools…

Have a great day and take care.

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A Glancing Shot Of Showers and Storms

Good Thursday, everyone. We have a quick hitting band of showers and storms impacting parts of the state today. This comes as a disturbance works across the Tennessee Valley. Beyond that, we head into a typical summer weekend before the pattern turns stormy and cooler, again.

The greatest threat for rain today continues to be across the southern half of the state. Some of the action will make it north of Interstate 64, but shouldn’t be as heavy as what areas south of that see. Highs will generally range from the upper 60s to low 70s.

Temps from Friday into the weekend will be back into the middle and upper 80s. The west will be a few degrees warmer than that. Again, typical summertime in Kentucky. Isolated showers and storms will also be possible.

A better chance of storms comes our way from late Sunday into early next week. This happens as the pattern begins to shift around a little bit. A pronounced trough is likely to dig into the eastern part of the country as the week wears on…

Euro 2That allows for cooler air to return and that setup could even lead to something tropical trying to spin up off the east coast.

The GFS Ensembles are really going bonkers with the trough as we flip from July to August…

GFS 2Years that feature a strong el nino tend to feature some pretty good cool shots in late Summer and Fall. The CFS for August keeps showing the same look…

CFS

The first week of September shows  even cooler air gathering in the plains…

CFS 2I leave you with your Thursday tracking tools…

 

 

Have a great day and take care.

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