Author Archives: Chris Bailey

Time posted: 1:41 am

Late Summer Pattern Hangs On

Good Wednesday to one and all. Summertime air continues to take up residence across our part of the world, and this will likely carry us into early next week. Once we get to that point, our colder than normal setup looks to return as we say goodbye to September and hello to October.

There just isn’t  much change to the overall pattern through the rest of the week. Daytime highs are generally from 80-85, but any day featuring more clouds and scattered storms will keep temps in the upper 70s.

Speaking of scattered storms, we have some to track today…


Rubber stamp today’s forecast and play it right on through the coming weekend. Bigger changes move in after that and I will get to those in a moment.

Let’s talk tropics now and give you the latest on Jose and Maria…

Hurricane Infrared GOES East

Jose continues to weaken as it loops off the northeastern coast…

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The loop from Jose will likely draw Maria on a more northward turn, which could spare the east coast. Here’s the track from the NHC…

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The pattern flips back to cooler than normal by the middle and end of next week.

Take a look at the 5 day temperature departures from the CFS model over the next 30 days…

 A little world of caution for this time of year… This crazy hurricane season will have a lot to say about these cool shots ahead.

Have a great day and take care.

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Time posted: 1:40 am

Scattered Storms On The Increase

Good Tuesday to one and all. We have scattered showers and storms increasing across the region today, as our warmer than normal pattern rolls on. This same setup is likely to carry us through the upcoming weekend, before cooler changes sweep back into town next week.

Today’s stormy action will be more widespread than what we had on Monday, and some locally heavy downpours are a good bet…


I have no changes to my overall through process through the upcoming weekend. Each day can feature scattered showers and storms with highs running in the 80-85 degree range for many. Humidity levels will be up, giving us a semi-muggy feel here in the second half of September.

The tropics continue to feature Jose and Maria. Jose is moving into cooler waters off the northeast, weakening this system. Maria is a powerful hurricane moving across the Caribbean…

Hurricane Infrared GOES East

Jose will likely bring tropical storm force conditions to areas of the northeast over the next few days. This storm should slow down and do a little loop…

cone graphic

That loop is likely to play a big role in where Maria goes. From a meteorological perspective, it’s going to be fascinating to watch these two systems interact with one another.

Here’s the latest National Hurricane Center track for Maria…

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The latest model runs are keeping Maria just off the east coast. The GFS has a deepening trough developing, helping to push this system to the east. Here’s the extended GFS run through the first few days of October…

That’s a much cooler pattern settling in…

The GFS Ensembles show this chilly shot as we end the month…

More winter talk later this week. Make it a great day and take care.

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Time posted: 1:14 am

Tracking Storms and The Tropics

Good Monday, folks, We are kicking off a warmer than normal week across the Commonwealth of Kentucky. Humidity levels will also be on the increase, giving us a semi-muggy feel at times. With the humidity coming up, scattered showers and storms will be cranking up from time to time.

As all this is going on, we have two tropical threats along the east coast of the United States.

Today’s showers and storms will be more prominent across central and western parts of the state. Some heavy downpours will be possible…


Tuesday should give us more of the same, as scattered showers and storms rumble through here…

High temps with areas getting storms may stay in the 70s, while those outside of storms see 80-85.

Rubber stamp the above forecast and play it through the rest of the week and into the upcoming weekend.

Jose and Maria continue to spin and both will likely threaten different parts of the east coast. Jose is first in line, while Maria churns across the Caribbean…

Hurricane Infrared GOES East

Jose will likely have a big impact from the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England. Tropical storm force winds are possible…

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Jose may then try to do a loop and head back toward the coast as a much weaker system. What happens with that loop may be a primary driver to where Maria winds up going. This major hurricane is going to work through some of the same Caribbean islands recently devastated by Hurricane Irma…

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There are a lot of variables in play with Jose and Maria, so it’s going to be interesting to see how everything plays out over the next week.

Just beyond the next week, the pattern likely flips chilly across the eastern half of the country. The European Ensembles from WeatherBell show a rather dramatic shift to cold as we end September…

I’ve been saying this is a year for an early season frost threat, and the above maps could signal such a threat into early October. Of course, what happens in the tropics can have a big impact on the overall pattern.

Make it a great day and take care.

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Time posted: 1:40 am

Scattered Storms To Join The Mix

Good Sunday, folks. Warmer air continues to take control of our pattern, but a scattering of showers and storms will try to temper the temperatures in the coming days. As all this happens, the tropics continue to run in supercharged mode.

Highs today range from 80-85 in many areas. Skies stay partly sunny, with just a tiny shot at a stray shower or storm going up.

A better chance for scattered storms goes up as we head into late Monday and Tuesday. These scattered storms will then be with us each day through next weekend. The GFS shows this well on the rainfall forecast for the week ahead…

 

Hurricane Jose continues to pull northward off the east coast…

Hurricane Infrared GOES East

The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center continues to keep the center offshore…

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The storm is big enough to provide the northeastern states with wind and rain. The tropics remain active with 2 more storms developing in the Atlantic…

 

The front running storm is poised to work into the Caribbean this week and may threaten the southeastern US next weekend or early the following week. Here’s the 5 day track from the NHC…

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Looking down the road through October, we are likely to see some pretty decent early season cold shots around here. The extended run of the European Model suggests flakes will fly in the Appalachian Mountains before October ends…

That would indicate a healthy early season snowpack becoming established in Canada, with a lot of snows out west in the Rockies. The snow pack in Canada backs up my thoughts on a possible earlier than normal start to winter around here.

Have a great Sunday and take care.

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Time posted: 2:14 am

The Last Stand Of A Wimpy Summer

Good Saturday, everyone. It’s the final weekend of what has been a very wimpy summer, but mother nature is giving us one final surge of real warmth. These surges have been in short supply over the past several months, but this one will carry us through the next week or so.

With the surge in temps, comes an increase in storm chances, especially next week. That’s when Jose will threaten the northeast, with additional tropical systems likely developing.

Temps out there today are generally upper 70s to low 80s in most areas. With a few clouds billowing up, I can’t totally dismiss isolated showers or storms popping…

Our weather for the week ahead will feature highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s. There is a better chance for scattered storms going up, starting Monday.

Hurricane Jose continues to churn northeast of the Bahamas…

Hurricane Infrared GOES East

This storm continues to turn toward the north, with the potential for a more northwest movement early next week. Here’s the latest NHC track…

cone graphic

The new GFS continues to threaten the northeast…

The Canadian continues to show a direct hit…

The tropical hits don’t stop with Jose. We have a few more areas being watched well out in the Atlantic…

The Canadian Model has one of these storms threatening the southeast in a little more than a week from now…

The GFS shows a very similar scenario, then follows it up with another threat several days later…

We will see how all this tropical action impacts the overall pattern, but it looks like the last week of September turns cool again, with an outside chance at an early season frost as we get ready to flip the calendar.

Have a great Saturday and take care.

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