Author Archives: Chris Bailey

Time posted: 1:55 am

Stormy Times On The Way

Good Monday to one and all. Heat and humidity continue out there today, but the thunderstorm threat is about to take control of our pattern once again. Rounds of storms are on the way and may cause local high water issues as the weak wears on.

In addition to the stormy setup, I’m also looking long range toward fall and winter. Woot!

Scattered showers and storms will be floating around today into Tuesday, with rounds of storms waiting to kick into high gear starting Wednesday. That’s a setup that should last through the rest of the week and into the coming weekend.

A front moves in and slows down right on top of the bluegrass state. That will combine with abundant moisture, some of it streaming from the western Gulf of Mexico, to create an environment conducive for rounds of storms to roll across our pat of the world…

This setup can give us a few strong storms, but it’s the heavy rain threat that is most concerning. Once again, we find ourselves in a pattern that can produce, at least, local flash flooding issues. The rain numbers from the GFS are impressive through the weekend…

This pattern may persist into the following week. Watch how the numbers jump even more if we add in week two…

As mentioned earlier, a few storms will flare up today and some of those may be strong and put down very heavy rains…

Many of the seasonal models are just now getting into the winter months, and I’ve been showing a few. The common theme of the various seasonal models is for a weak to moderate El Nino to develop well off the coast of South America. The farther west of South America, the better the chance for a cold winter in our region. Those same models are also showing a warm pool of water in the Gulf of Alaska. This was there back in the winters of 13/14 and 14/15, and was something we said would lead to some healthy winters around here, and both delivered the goods.

The latest JAMSTEC Seasonal Model shows our warm pool and El Nino developing for fall. Here’s the September-November average…

Watch the cold signal blossom across the country for the same time period…

Winter just now gets into the range of the JAMSTEC and it’s showing a contination of the GOA warm pool and the El Nino. Here’s the December-February average…

Watch how the model cranks the colder than normal temps from the southern plains through the eastern half of the country…

Regardless of what any seasonal model shows for actual temps and precipitation, we take them with a grain of salt. That goes without saying. That said, the takeaway from the models is the GOA warm pool and the El Nino placement. If those develop, our odds for an exciting winter increase.

Make it a great Monday and take care.

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Time posted: 2:03 am

Stormy Setup Returns For The Week Ahead

Good Sunday and Happy Father’s Day. Mother Nature is giving dads the gift of heat and humidity today. The toasty temps will continue into Monday, but rounds of showers and thunderstorms will target the state for much of the week ahead. It’s another stormy setup taking shape.

Temps today are in the upper 80s and low 90s for much of central and eastern Kentucky, with low and middle 90s in the west. Throw in the humidity and heat index values will be several degrees hotter. The west will be near 100 or a little better.

Isolated showers and storms may go up…

Monday will be another very toasty day with the potential for more in the way of scattered showers and storms cranking. That action will continue to increase Tuesday and Wednesday as a cold front drops in from the northwest. That will be able to tap some tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. This is the area I’ve been highlighting for potential development and here is our system trying to get organized…

That system moves toward Texas and Louisiana, with the moisture potentially being drawn northward up the Mississippi River Valley and then into the stalling front in our region. That stalled front may have a few waves of low pressure rolling across the region…

The European Model is showing something similar, as is the test version of the GFS…

There’s even the chance for an upper level low to close off somewhere near our region. Regardless, unsettled weather looks to continue through next weekend into the following week.

There will be no shortage of storms this summer!

Have a great day and Happy Father’s Day. Take care.

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Time posted: 1:41 am

Weekend Steam Then More Storms

Good Saturday, everyone. Heat and humidity continue to push into the state today and this will continue through Father’s Day. Once we get past the weekend, rounds of showers and storms look to kick back into high gear, with cooler air settling back in later next week.

Temps are taking center stage today with 90-95 in the west and upper 80s to around 90 in central and eastern Kentucky. Heat index numbers will be up a few degrees in the east, but will be way up in the west.

Can we fire up a popcorn storm? That’s a possibility…

Watch Ohio to see if we can get a storm or two to crank tonight and early Sunday. That could actually drop into the northeast.

Father’s Day looks hot with highs generally upper 80s and low 90s central and east, with low and mid 90s west…

Heat Index values will be much hotter.

Monday is another steamy day, but storms will try to go up during the afternoon and evening hours…

A cold front drops in from the north as tropical moisture works out of the western Gulf of Mexico. The end result will be an increase in showers and storms around here…

That front slows down with rounds of storms continuing Wednesday and Thursday…

The Canadian has much more of a wave of low pressure working across the state from late Wednesday through Friday, bringing an increase in our rains. It also follows that up with another system by the weekend…

The GFS just keeps throwing system after system at us through early the following week…

Have a great Saturday and take care.

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Time posted: 1:49 am

Weekend Sizzle Shows Up

Good Friday, everyone. We have heat and humidity heading into the bluegrass state for the weekend, but another stormy look is trying to set up as we head into much of next week. Until that arrives, we are going to sweat out some toasty temps.

It’s going to be interesting to see if a cluster or two of thunderstorms develop and roll across parts of the region today and Saturday. That typically happens on the leading edge of heat and humidity from the plains states. One of those may impact areas of western Kentucky today…

If those thunderstorm clusters do develop, they could throw some clouds across the rest of the region. Those could impact temps.

Highs today will reach the middle 80s for areas of central and eastern Kentucky, but the western half of the state hits 90 or a little better. Again, storm action could play a factor in those numbers.

Highs this weekend reach the upper 80s and low 90s for central and eastern Kentucky, with the numbers a few degrees hotter in the west. Factor in the humidity and it will feel hotter than that. It’s interesting to watch the temps from the computer models continue to be too hot compared to reality. That’s been a common trend in recent years and is again this year.

One of the reasons may be because of just how wet our ground is. Rainfall has been abundant this year, with the entire state WELL above normal…

Some areas are a more than 10″ above normal. A wet ground and lush vegetation, helps to keep temps from reaching the max potential.

Speaking of storms, a storm or two will be possible on Sunday, with an increase of showers and storms early next week as a front nears from the north. That front is showing signs of checking up and hanging around through the rest of the week into next weekend. That would bring back the all too familiar pattern of storms…

That same model run is putting down some  decent rains next week…

Have a fantastic Friday and take care.

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Time posted: 2:01 am

A Little Sizzle On The Way

Good Thursday, folks. We are finally slowing down our stormy pattern and now it’s time to put a little sizzle into your back porch thermometer. A very typical summertime brand of heat rolls into town into the weekend, but storms and cooler temps are already targeting the region next week.

Speaking of storms, a few isolated showers and storms will be noted early this morning. One or two of those storms may hang around far southern Kentucky into the afternoon…

Humidity levels are way down today as temps stay in the low 80s east, with upper 80s to around 90 in the far west. Overall, this is a pretty pleasant day. Temps by Friday morning drop into the upper 50s and low 60s, with a rebound into the normal mid and upper 80s for most. A few low 90s may show up in the western half of the state. The air across central and eastern Kentucky is still pretty comfy.

Temp from Saturday through Monday will be the hottest, so far. Highs across the western half of the state will generally hit 90-95 with upper 80s and low 90s for central and eastern Kentucky. Throw in the humidity levels and it will feel hotter than that.

By Sunday, showers and thunderstorms will start to show back up ahead of something tropical trying to show up in the western Gulf of Mexico…

The threat for showers and storms will quickly increase into the first half of next week. That’s when a cold front drops in from the northwest and tries to take some of that moisture riding up the Mississippi Valley…

Temps will come way down as a deepening trough digs into the eastern half of the country. Watch how quickly the heat ridge gets smacked down…

Make it a great day and take care.

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