Author Archives: Chris Bailey

Time posted: 3:14 pm

A Big Update On Big Changes

Good Friday afternoon, folks. I had a little free time on my hands this afternoon, so I wanted to put together a big post on the big changes coming next week. This is a period of change that’s been advertised for the past few weeks here on the blog. It’s a change featuring a lot of rain, wind, cold temps and an outside chance at a flake.

The first round of showers and storms arrive in western Kentucky late Saturday night into Sunday as a cold front works in. As this happens, low pressure develops along the boundary to our south, and rolls northward right on top of the state Monday into Monday night. The end result will be heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, gusty winds and a big drop in temps…

Many areas can pick up an inch or two of rain, with locally higher amounts possible. The GFS rainfall forecast…

Winds become northwesterly and are VERY gusty Tuesday into Wednesday as cold air dives in from the northwest…

Notice the showers that accompany that northwesterly wind. The GFS does try to throw a flake into that Tuesday night into Wednesday morning…

I think the chance for a flake in that setup is pretty small, but the high mountains to our east should see some. Temps may not get out of the 40s on Wednesday. Lows by Thursday morning drop toward the freezing mark or a touch below.

Gusty southwesterly winds will warm us up quickly by Friday, but this is ahead of another potent system rolling in on Saturday…

Gusty winds, heavy rains and an even bigger temp crash are possible in that setup. The GFS shows temps dropping through the 30s on Saturday with something else showing up for a few…

Take that with a grain of salt from a week away, but it does match what ALL the ensembles have been showing… early season flake potential for the Ohio Valley and Appalachian Mountains. Those same ensembles continue to show this potential from next week into the first few days of November…

Back to the shot of cold next weekend… A hard freeze is likely by Saturday or Sunday. GFS Sunday morning temps…

The results from the recurving Typhoon out in the western Pacific is likely now showing up on the operational models for the next few weeks. Earlier this week, I talked about the similarities to the current setup and the one that gave us all the cold back in November of 2014. Combine that with the signal from some of my analog years, it gives us a decent understanding of the possibilities ahead.

For fun, the GFS goes coo coo for coco puffs with the cold diving into the country in early November…

Man… you guys got a mega-update in the middle of a gorgeous Friday afternoon. That either means I’m excited where the pattern is going or that I’m bored. Maybe both? 🙂

Regardless, I hope you enjoy me stepping it up a few notches with the posts this week.

I’ll see you late tonight for a fresh post. Have a great rest of your day and take care.

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Time posted: 2:57 am

All Eyes On Next Week

Good Friday, folks. Our nice weather pattern rolls on for a few more days, then some big time changes blow into the bluegrass state. It all starts with a potent storm system early next week, with cold shots coming in behind that. The potential is there for several shots of cold to show up for the last week or October into early November.

The weather today and Saturday continues to look amazing. Highs will be in the 70s with a mix of sun and clouds.

Those clouds will increase from west to east late Saturday into Sunday. A few showers and storms will impact far western Kentucky as early as Saturday night . Much of the Sunday shower and storm action hangs around western Kentucky, and can produce heavy rains…

Low pressure then  develops to our southwest and rolls near us on Monday. Gusty winds, showers and storms, heavy rainfall and a big temperature crash will be noted from this system. The GFS, as expected, continues to correct itself as we get closer…

The European Model brings the system right over us on Monday…

That storm system can drop a couple inches of rain across our part of the world. Wind gusts may also reach 30mph at times, especially as the low goes by and cold air surges in from the northwest. That same northwesterly flow will then produce rain showers, with a plume of moisture coming off Lake Michigan. That scenario may also spit out some snowflakes in the higher elevations of the Appalachian Mountain chain.

That system pulls away on Thursday as winds gust up ahead of the next front dropping in here by Friday and Saturday. The European Model is trying to make this into another good rain and wind maker ahead of more cold air pouring in…

The Canadian Model isn’t as wet, but has the cold…

The same model shows some very cold temps one week from tonight…

That may be a bit too cold, but you get the idea.

The GFS Ensembles, similar to what the European Ensembles are doing, continue to show the flakes potential across the Ohio Valley at some point over the next few weeks…

I will update things later today. Have a fantastic Friday and take care.

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Time posted: 6:50 pm

Thursday Evening Thoughts

Good evening, folks. My time is short, but I wanted to make sure and stop by for a quick update on the very active and colder pattern ahead.

Overall, nothing has really changed in my whole thought process.  We get a potent system to develop and more our way later Sunday into Monday. This will likely bring showers and thunderstorms, heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and a blast of cold air.

Here’s how it all plays out on the European Model from Sunday night through Wednesday…

The GFS continues to come west with the track of the low, and each run will likely come a littler farther west over the next day or so…

Check out the cold air surging in behind this storm for Tuesday and Wednesday…

Highs in the 40s are a real possibility by Wednesday.

Another shot of cold then takes aim at the region by Friday into Saturday…

The European Ensembles show another one following that up by Monday and lasting into Halloween…

These cold shots should bring a hard freeze to the region, possibly on multiple days. Can we get some rare early season flake action?

The European Ensembles continue to give us a chance before October finishes…

I’ll throw out another award winning update later tonight. 🙂

Enjoy your evening and take care.

5 Comments

Time posted: 2:58 am

Wild Weather Possible Next Week

Good Thursday, everyone. As we continue to roll through a gorgeous stretch of fall weather, it’s all eyes on the pattern developing for the final week of October. It’s a setup likely to bring much colder air into the eastern half of the country.

Let’s begin with today and roll forward. Highs will top out around 70 in the east with low and mid 70s in the west. Skies stay sunny.

Friday and Saturday look AWESOME with highs in the 70-75 degree range for many of us. A few clouds will be noted as we head into Saturday as a southwesterly flow begins to really kick in. That flow is ahead of a storm system rolling in here for Sunday and Monday.

Showers and thunderstorms increase from west to east on Sunday and this action continues into Monday. Low pressure likely rolls right on top of the region, bringing heavy rainfall.

The European Model has this wrapping up into one heck of a storm and riding right on top of us, producing some big winds to go along with the heavy rain and crashing temps. The new run of the Euro cuts this storm off right on top of us…

The GFS is slowly coming around to this idea, but is likely too far east with the low…

That’s typical of the model in a cold weather season setup.

Regardless, this is a potent storm system set to impact our region into the first half of next week. Gusty winds, heavy rain and a HUGE temp crash are all on the table.

Another push of cold air comes our way by Friday into next weekend. Check out both of our cold air surges for next week…

That weekend shot have even colder temps and has a chance to produce some flakes into the Ohio Valley and Appalachian Mountains. A hard freeze is likely during this time.

I’ve talked a lot recently about what’s going on in the western Pacific, Lan is developing into a Super Typhoon and may threaten Japan as it curves to the northeast…

A recurving typhoon in that region is usually a signal for a deep trough across the eastern part of the country. This system reminds me of a weaker version of Super Typhoon Nuri from late October and early November of 2014…

That went on to form a monster of a storm as it rolled into Alaska…

That scenario of a recurving typhoon is widely considered as the driving force behind record cold that engulfed much of the country in November of 2014. We had numerous record lows here along with a top 10 coldest November on record. A few systems even put down accumulating snows.

Now… Check out where the remnants of Lan go by the middle of next week…

Very interesting!

While I am NOT saying our current setup will produce the extreme conditions we had back in a similar setup 3 years ago, but it’s pretty amazing to look at the similarities.

I will update things later today. Have a good one and take care.

15 Comments

Time posted: 7:22 pm

Wednesday Evening Action Packed Update

Good evening, folks. I wanted to drop by for a very quick update on where the pattern is going as we head toward the final days of October.

It’s a much colder look taking shape across the eastern half of the country, but can it produce anything other than just cold? As we continue to search for the answer, let’s take a look at where things currently stand.

The European Model seems to have a very good handle on how next week plays out. It’s the best model suited to handle all the atmospheric chaos ongoing across the globe, and we have a lot of it.

Rain arrives from west to east on Sunday as a cold front gets into town. That front then slows down, allowing a big storm system to develop along it and roll across Kentucky. That brings heavy rain and helps unlock the first shot of cold air…

If it works out like that, very heavy rain totals would be possible on Monday. You can also see the wraparound cold showers on a strong northwesterly wind flow. Highs in the 40s will be possible by Wednesday. It may also produce a few flakes across the Appalachian Mountains.

As that system departs, a colder blast of air dives in by next Friday and Saturday…

Can that get some flakes flying across areas of the Ohio Valley? It’s too early to tell, but the air is frigid for late October.

Check out both cold shots from the European…

The European Ensembles (51 different members) are in strong agreement with the operational run…

The European Model shows significant blocking going up across Canada into Greenland, allowing for a DEEP eastern US trough to develop…

As we mentioned earlier this week, a typhoon in the western Pacific is forecast to recurve in the coming days…

Lan will become a Super Typhoon as it heads toward Japan then curves northeast. That kinda track usually signifies a deep buckle in the jet stream across the eastern half of the United States.

There’s also a weaker system nearby that looks to recurve…

Some interesting parallels to November of 2014 showing up with the above look. I will talk about that later tonight.

Make it a good evening and take care.

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