Author Archives: Chris Bailey
Good Thursday afternoon, gang. This is an update to let you know I have no changes to the thoughts put out in my last post. A one-two punch of winter is on the way to the bluegrass state with freezing rain, sleet, snow and heavy rain. Location, location, location is what it’s all about. When is it not?
I won’t rehash the thoughts already out there. I think the GFS has a pretty good handle on the setup at this point and is the way to go. The Saturday night and Sunday time period continues to be my biggest concern for widespread significant freezing rain, sleet and snow. That’s not saying tomorrow’s stuff won’t be widespread, just that the following system may have a more serious impact.
I’ll get you an update when Winter Storm Warnings are issued later this afternoon. I leave you with some tracking toys…
I-75 @ Winchester Road
I-75 @ Iron Works Pike
I-75 @ Clays Ferry Bridge South
Between Lexington and Richmond
US 60 @ US 127
US 127 @ Frankfort
I-75 at MP 36
I-71/I-75 at Buttermilk Pike
I-64 @ 3rd St. Exit
Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway
I-65 @ 234
Near Bowling Green
I-24 MP 4 @ US 60
I-24 MP 7 @ US 62
Good Thursday, everyone. I continue to track two major winter weather events for the bluegrass state over the next few days. This means we have a double barrel Winter Storm ALERT. The first runs tonight through Friday Night and the second from Saturday night into Sunday.
To say this is a complex and extreme setup would be an understatement. We have every precipitation type to deal with and it could be a lot of each one. Let’s get after it…
Our arctic cold front swings across the state today and will set up a massive temperature gradient and fall. At some point today, we could see a 40 degree difference from west to east. The good folks at Kentucky Mesonet give us the temp tracking goods…
Most areas will be well into the 60s early today. By evening, many readings will be in the 30s. Western Kentucky may go below freezing by the middle of the evening and that will get the mix of sleet, snow and freezing rain started there. The rest of us will deal with heavy rain and a clap of thunder is possible early.
That line will then work eastward overnight into Friday and that is going to make for some tough, tough forecasting of precipitation types. Here’s how I see it…
The area I have highlighted for the heaviest precipitation will likely get hammered and serious issues may result. Heavy snow, sleet and freezing rain will be common in these areas. Accumulations will vary because of the precipitation types, but the potential for some areas to reach 4″ of whatever falls is more than possible.
Areas just to the east of that into central and northeastern sections will see rain to start with a changeover to sleet, freezing rain and some snow as the day wears on. The timing of the change in any one location will dictate accumulations, but I do expect some to occur. Heavy rain in the southeast will change to a light mix before ending Friday night.
Travel will deteriorate from west to east as the change takes place and as temps go below freezing. We may see teens settling in Friday night and Saturday morning. Single digits will be possible for areas in the west and north.
Arctic cold temps will be noted on Saturday with highs in the 20s. That sets the stage for the next big push of moisture to return Saturday night and Sunday. This has the look of a significant event of ice and some snow. Sunday morning looks nasty for just about the entire state…
The models continue to point toward a temperature rise above freezing from south to north. Arctic air over a snow or ice pack does not get pushed around easily and may hang around longer than the models think. That would be bad news wherever that happens!
The flood threat continues into southern and eastern parts of the state through the weekend into early next week. Rivers may be the biggest concern before all is said and done.
Monday will see another weak wave working through the region with light snow breaking out later in the day as temps take a dive. Single digits will be possible by Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. Highs those days may not get out of the teens for some areas.
Always one to look ahead… I see one or two more big ticket winter items before Christmas. This is a pattern locked and loaded.
Updates will come later in the day and I will be firing off quick updates via twitter. Have a great day and take care.
Good evening, gang. Things remain on course for a major storm system to throw rounds of nasty winter weather and heavy rain our way. We have to take this one at a time and the first one will begin to impact western Kentucky tomorrow afternoon and evening.
Winter Storm Warnings and Watches are out for western and central Kentucky, and a Flood Watch is out for the east…
Those are for the first wave of precipitation and run from late Thursday through Saturday morning. The next round will take aim at the region Saturday night into Sunday and that one has ice written all over it.
A new round of winter storm warnings and watches will likely come for Saturday night into Sunday/Monday. Those may encompass a lot more areas.
Have a great evening and take care.
A WINTER STORM WATCH is now in effect Friday through Saturday morning for most of central and western Kentucky. This includes the Lexington and Louisville areas. I expect northern Kentucky to be added to this watch at some point this afternoon…
Good Wednesday afternoon. It’s becoming obvious we are dealing with a series of systems that will deliver a major winter blow to the bluegrass state from Friday through the upcoming weekend. This will likely result in significant snow, ice and rain for much of the state.
The models continue to trend colder, quicker on Friday and that sets the stage for significant amounts of snow, sleet and freezing rain for parts of central, northern and western Kentucky. The change from rain to this nasty stuff will take place from west to east Friday morning into the afternoon.
With confidence increasing for significant winter weather weather… I have put out a Winter Storm Threat and Alert for Friday into Friday night. Here’s the area of concern…
I will fine tune that as we get closer, but the risk for significant snow and ice certainly warrants this upgrade. Areas farther north and west in the Alert will see the highest amounts of ice and snow because you will switch over earlier in the day compared to those farther east.
Saturday night into Sunday morning has the potential to produce SIGNIFICANT ice for much of the state…
That is a potentially dangerous setup and one that we will have to keep a very close eye on in the coming days. The flood threat continues to be high across southern and eastern Kentucky, so we have a multi threat system to watch.
I will have updates as needed. Take care.
Good Wednesday, friends. All eyes continue to be on a prolonged, high impact event starting Thursday and lasting into early next week. Snow, Ice and flooding rains will all be possible across Kentucky and surrounding areas.
We will go into Winter Storm Threat mode later today as I get a better handle on exactly what parts of the state to include in this. Winter Storm Watches are already out for western Kentucky and more will likely follow before the day is finished. Throw in some Flood Watches and you have the makings of a busy weather map to come.
The action gets started with rain breaking out on Thursday as our arctic front rolls into the region from the west. This will have a mega temp gradient from one side of this to the other. The cold will continue to push eastward into Thursday night and Friday and this means a change to snow, sleet and freezing rain for many. Here’s a first look at how that transition plays out…
Timing and location will play a huge roll in what kind of precipitation you see during the above time frame. With temps dropping into the 20s from west to east during the day and evening… travel is likely to be impacted.
Arctic temps move in Friday night and Saturday as we find ourselves in between waves. Some models take temps as low as the high single digits and low teens in the north and west to start the day. Highs will generally run in the 20s. This arctic air in place is a bad, bad thing for Saturday night into early Sunday. That’s when moisture arrives from the next system and that is likely to be in the form of freezing rain and sleet for many. It is this time period that I am very worried about several areas getting in on a decent ice event. Let’s hope sleet wins out instead of freezing rain. Here’s the breakdown…
I continue to be very concerned with the potential for stream and river flooding across southern and eastern Kentucky through Monday. These areas may pick up better than 5″ of rain and that could be enough to force some rivers into flood. The Ohio River Forecast Center is highlighting this risk…
Please keep a close eye on the high water potential in the coming days.
Many of the models continue to develop some kind of 4th wave of low pressure late Monday into early Tuesday. The European Model continues to be the most impressed with this potential and really likes it as a snow maker for the eastern half of the state.
As you can see, we have a lot on the table over the next several days. We have multiple precipitation types that will impact the state, so don’t get focused on just one.
I will update things later today. Make it a good one and take care.
Good Tuesday evening, gang. A WINTER STORM WATCH has already been issued for western Kentucky for Thursday night into Friday. Here’s a look…
That is likely to be the first of many issued for Kentucky through the next several days. Snow and ice will impact this region first Thursday night and Friday morning. The WPC has this region outlooked for a high risk for ice during this time…
The snow and ice line will continue to collapse eastward during the day on Friday. The GFS continues to come around to a colder, faster solution during that time period. The European Model has been showing that cold air from the start and it looks like the GFS is running home to it.
Many of you are talking about the snowfall totals coming in from the European Model. Here’s what’s getting all the attention…
I suspect there may be an algorithm problem because I simply can’t see those types of totals with such a messy setup. That said… the GFS isn’t getting too far away from that…
The following GFS maps are just plain nasty…
Look… this is going to get super messy over an extended period of time. We will fine tune as we get closer.
Good Tuesday, folks. The GFS continues to see the arctic cold air that’s in play and is slowly coming around to the colder solution put forth by the European Model. Get us within 36-48 hours and I suspect most models will be able to gauge the impact of the cold much better.
Watch the GFS progression of the snow and icy mix across the state on Friday…
That’s not exactly the best resolution in the world, but it gives you an idea of what I’m talking about. The model now takes most areas into the upper 20s by evening and has teens around Saturday morning with highs in the upper 20s and low 30s.
After a break in the action on Saturday… the icy mix and snow returns late evening and takes us into Sunday. It’s at that point we will need to see how the models play the low level arctic air. I assure you… they will change as they get closer to that next wave.
Taken with a grain of salt, the GFS snowfall map through Sunday…
The flooding threat continues to be high across southern and eastern Kentucky this weekend and is one folks should take seriously. We are likely to get into a situation where Winter Storm Warnings and Flash Flood Watches are out for parts of the state. Maybe some of these overlap?
BTW… the models are trying to hint at a snow wave by Tuesday as even colder air moves in.
Have a great day and take care.
Good Tuesday, everyone. We continue to watch a high impact weather event heading our way for the end of the week into the coming weekend. Snow, Ice and flooding rains will all be possible as a series of systems roll across the region.
This whole mess gets started with an arctic front that slowly crosses the state on Thursday. This will set up a mega temperature gradient until the front clears the state early Friday. That boundary will then become stationary just to our south and east. Waves of low pressure will develop along this front and each will throw abundant moisture back into the state.
We have a triple threat of weather coming our way… heavy rain, ice and snow. Who gets what and when is yet to be determined, but this is going to have a big impact on where you live in some form of fashion. Let me start with the one I am most confident with… the heavy rain and flood potential. Many models continue to spit out more than 5″ of rain across southern and eastern Kentucky…
Numbers like that could easily cause high water issues… especially along area rivers. Here’s the area I’m most concerned with…
The snow and Ice risk is increasing, but the location and timing are the factors I will have to tackle over the next few days. The models will come into much better agreement over the next 24 hours as all the players are on the field.
The GFS goes back and forth on the placement of the heaviest snow and ice. That has to do with a temperature profile that is razor thin in determining rain, snow, freezing rain and sleet. The European Model continues to be the most aggressive with the cold air. This models has a higher resolution than the GFS and other models, so it SHOULD be able to see the arctic cold better.
Check out the surface temps from the European Model during this event. The white line shows the 32 degree mark…
As you can clearly see… that’s some serious cold air working in here Friday into the weekend. The model shows single digits in western and northern parts of the state Saturday morning. IF the European Model is correct in the temperature depiction… a lot of snow and ice will fall across much of the state.
I will try to get more specific with another update around noon today. But, I want to stress, this will be a SIGNIFICANT weather maker for the entire state.
Good evening, winter weenies. The late afternoon run of the GFS came in with a much colder solution for Friday into Friday night and that would mean more snow than ice.
Here’s the snowfall numbers through Friday night…
I said it over the weekend and it bears repeating… the models tend to be underdone with the extent and speed of arctic air. Let’s see if the models catch up to this over the next day or so. The European Model seems to be slightly ahead of the game in that regard. We shall see.
Good Monday afternoon, everyone. We continue to eye a major weather event that will impact the entire state from Thursday through the upcoming weekend. This will bring the potential for snow and ice and flooding rains our way.
My winter impact map stays the same…
The threat will be for everything from snow to freezing rain and sleet or any combination of the above. It’s way to early to pick out who gets what kind of precipitation. The precipitation type may vary with each wave of low pressure that works through here. Everyone wants to focus on snow… don’t. This is way more than that.
The first wave comes through here Thursday into Thursday night with rain to a icy mix in the north and west. The next wave comes through Friday into Friday night with a colder scenario and more snow and ice than the first wave. The final wave may have the most moisture from Saturday night through Sunday night.
That does NOT include the bulk of what falls from the third wave on Sunday.
The threat for flooding is a real one and it could be significant… especially along rivers. Many of the models are showing 4″-6″ of rain falling across southeastern Kentucky during this time. Here’s the area of greatest concern…
From snow and ice to the possible flooding… this is a very ugly setup for the state this weekend. I will have updates as needed. I’m off work today as I wrap up my 4 day weekend.