Author Archives: Chris Bailey

Wednesday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, folks. The temperatures out there today are a little colder than I originally thought they would be. Of course, that happens when you start the day off with some single digits. While that’s nice and all, the focus of the forecast is on a clipper for Thursday and the potential for a bigger system this weekend.

The clipper zips in here quickly on Thursday with very gusty winds and falling temperatures. Winds may reach 35mph at times. Gusty showers will be ahead of it with some snow showers and flurries flying behind our front. The best chance comes Thursday night into Friday morning and we could see some light accumulations…

GFS Snow

Minor accumulations will be possible to start the day on Friday. Winds will continue to be gusty and that will make the temps in the 20s feel like the teens.

Our weekend system continues to show up as clear as mud. The GFS runs 4 times a day and it has yet to show the same solution twice with the weekend storm. Last night it had a strong storm cutting into the Great Lakes. It’s latest run shows no such thing…

GFS

Taken at face value, that’s a 1″-4″ snow on that model. That’s something I wouldn’t be doing with any run of the GFS or any of the models at this point. Still… someone on Sunday will spout out these nonsensical words ” The GFS nailed this system several days ago”.  When a model spits out 50 different solutions, it’s bound to get one of them right. :)

It’s not as If the other models are performing any better, but they don’t get the false praise the GFS gets in this country.

Speaking of the other models, the GFS Ensembles are not impressed with a big storm and show a wave of low pressure sliding across the Tennessee Valley…

GFS 3

That’s a far cry from the Canadian Model…

Canadian

Get us to the 48 hour mark before this system forms and then we can talk in greater detail about what impact it will have on our weather.

One way or the other, Super Bowl Sunday is likely to be very messy across our part of the world.

I will update things later this evening. Take care.

27 Comments

Another Clipper Arrives Thursday

Good Wednesday to one and all. Today is a very nice weather day and it’s likely to be the best day we see for a while. Think of this as a one day break from the winter weather potential because another clipper works our way tomorrow. I’m still watching the potential for a bigger system to impact our weather by Super Bowl Sunday.

The clipper zips in here Thursday with very gusty winds. Those gusts may reach 35mph at times as the cold front swings through. Temps will spike toward 40 ahead of that front and will crash behind it. Rain showers will develop early in the morning and I can’t rule out a touch of frozen stuff at the start.

Snow showers and flurries will then kick in behind the front by late Thursday and carry us into early Friday. Those may put down some light accumulations and the NAM is showing this…

NAM

The Hi-Res NAM is also picking up on some light stuff…

NAM 2That could be enough to cause some slick travel conditions by Friday morning. The rest of your Friday is a cold one with some flakes flying around. Highs will struggle to get out of the 20s, but gusty winds will make it feel a whole lot colder.

That brings us to Super Bowl weekend and the potential for a much bigger winter weather system. Several of the overnight model runs decided to jump toward a stronger low that tracks right on top of the bluegrass state. That would push the best snows north of the bluegrass state IF the models are correct. Given how much variance and jumping around we’ve seen from each of them lately… it’s a BIG if.

The GFS shows snow to rain to snow…

GFS

The Canadian shows a similar look…

Canadian

The new European Model is coming in with a less amplified solution and more of a eastward tracking low across the region.

As I have said with each and every solution the models have been spitting out in recent days (and there have been many), don’t get too caught up in any one set of runs. Get us within 48 hours of the event and we will see where things stand.

For those hoping for an early spring… that’s probably not in the cards again this year. February has a lot of storm threats to go along with cold shots. I’m not sure how I feel about that. Yes, I like my winter, but you guys know how I get once February rolls around. I’m pretty much ready to roll into spring by that point. :)

I will have updates later today. Make it a good one and take care.

71 Comments

Watching Weekend Trends

Good evening, guys and gals. We’re inching closer and closer to Super Bowl Weekend and it’s looking more and more like a round of winter weather will roll in. How much of an impact remains to be seen, but the potential is there for a nice smack from Old Man Winter.

If you read my last post, I dissected what was likely wrong with the GFS. I won’t rehash it all here, but the new run basically corrected itself in the exact manner I said it would…

GFS

As of now, a system with that track and intensity makes more meteorological sense to me given the look of the pattern. Here’s the snowfall map from that run…

GFS 2Notice how that matches up VERY well with the snowfall look from the European Ensembles…

Euro SnowIt’s always good to see some matching models, but that certainly does not mean they are correct. Keep that in mind. ;)

Earlier I broke down the bias of the GFS and now I’m going to do the same for the European Model. It has a tendency to overdevelop storm systems and that looks like what it’s doing on it’s last run…

EuroThat still produces a lot of winter weather around here, but I don’t think the storm wraps up that much, right now.

If you have travel plans across our region from Saturday night through early Monday, please keep checking back for updates to see how this system plays out.

I will have a full update later tonight. Take care.

41 Comments

Tuesday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, folks. Our day started out with another light snowfall that caused all kinds of traffic issues. That system has moved on and now it’s time to focus on additional snow makers lining up to impact our weather.Yes, I said lining up.

The next arrives later Thursday in the form of a clipper. This will bring gusty showers ahead of it with a quick change to light snow and snow showers behind it…

GFS

Some minor accumulations will be possible Thursday night and Friday morning. Leftover flurries and snow showers would then hang around into a blustery and cold Friday.

The weekend system is still on our weather menu, but the details on how it’s prepared are still to be figured out. I want to continue to stress to folks to NOT get caught up in one model or one model run. Just look back at the past 24 hours worth of model runs and notice how none of them look the same. It’s important to try and find trends in what the models are showing.

The two trends I’m seeing at the moment…

1. The models have a fairly moisture rich setup from late Saturday through Super Bowl Sunday.

2. I’m not seeing a big “deepening” area low pressure.

The midday GFS illustrates my point, but goes about it in a kooky way that may being playing into a bias the model has…

GFS 2

That run brings a lot of moisture in from the south and southwest without any southern stream area of low pressure. The bias of the GFS is to overemphasize the front running disturbance coming out of the northern branch of the jet stream. That’s why you see the clipper looking low across the Ohio Valley.

It’s not the overall setup on the model is terribly wrong, it’s just probably playing up the wrong feature. One of the reasons I’m not seeing a deepening storm is we have several other systems pushing the one above. You will see these arrive into next week.

Check out the arctic shot that also comes early next week…

GFS 3

I will have another update later today. Enjoy the afternoon and take care.

36 Comments

Watching The Snow Threats

Good Tuesday, everyone. A round of light snow is working quickly across parts of the state early today and could leave behind some slick roads. This is all part of the overall pattern that includes additional snow chances in the coming days. One of those systems may crash some Super Bowl parties.

Let’s start with today and roll forward. The morning round of snow won’t impact everyone, but can put down some light accumulations for those who get in on the action. It just takes a small amount to impact that morning commute, so stay safe. I will have your trackers in a bit.

Wednesday’s weather looks good with some sunshine and temps from the upper 30s to the middle 40s. Enjoy that because another clipper works in quickly from the northwest on Thursday…

NAM

That has some rain in front of it and some light snow and snow showers behind it. Another light accumulation will be possible for some areas by Friday morning.

Our weekend system continues to be one to keep a very close eye on. The setup is certainly there for the potential for a decent sized storm system to impact our region. The Canadian Model continues to indicate a favorable track for snow and winter weather…

Canadian

Canadian 2

The European Model is has a stronger storm system that travels a little farther north…

Euro

Does anyone remember the weather last year on Super Bowl weekend? Interesting similarities to that and some of the newer model runs.

I will continue to watch the weekend potential and have updates later today. I leave you with some early day tracking tools…

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road

US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort

US60 @ US127

US 127 @ Frankfort Frankfort

US127 @ Frankfort KY

US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
US60 @ US460

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown
I75 NB @ MP 127

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

Bluegrass Parkway Bardstown

Western Ky Parkway/I-65 Elizabethtown

I-65 MP 32

I-64 @ 3rd St. Exit
Louisville
I-64 @ 3rd St. Exit

Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway
Louisville
Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway

I-64 @ I-264
Louisville
I-64 @ I-264

I-264 @ Freedom Way
Near Louisville International Airport
I-264 @ Freedom Way

 

I-75 at MP 36
London
I-75 @ MP 36

I-75 at MP 23
Corbin
I-75 @ MP 23

I-65 @ 234 Near Bowling Green

I-65 @ 234

Make it a great day and take care.

60 Comments

Tracking Snow Makers

Good evening, gang. Our latest round of light snow is working across parts of the region and could cause some travel problems. I will hook you up with the trackers on that one in a moment. We also have other snow makers to track in the coming days.

The next clipper arrives late Thursday into early Friday. That’s a rain to light snow maker that may be similar to what we had last night and this morning.

The bigger system appears to be on target for Super Bowl Weekend. The European Model has a nice snow hit for the entire state…

EuroThat’s a system that basically moves due eastward across the lower Tennessee Valley and is similar to what the Canadian was showing earlier.

The European Ensembles show a similar idea…

Euro SnowAgain, we aren’t focusing on any one run of any one model. Just watch the overall trends and how the storm system keeps showing up. It’s nowhere near a slam dunk from this far out, but it is certainly something that should have our attention.

Let’s get back to tracking tonight’s light snow maker…

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road

US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort

US60 @ US127

US 127 @ Frankfort Frankfort

US127 @ Frankfort KY

US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
US60 @ US460

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown
I75 NB @ MP 127

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

Bluegrass Parkway Bardstown

Western Ky Parkway/I-65 Elizabethtown

I-65 MP 32

I-64 @ 3rd St. Exit
Louisville
I-64 @ 3rd St. Exit

Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway
Louisville
Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway

I-64 @ I-264
Louisville
I-64 @ I-264

I-264 @ Freedom Way
Near Louisville International Airport
I-264 @ Freedom Way

 

I-75 at MP 36
London
I-75 @ MP 36

I-75 at MP 23
Corbin
I-75 @ MP 23

I-65 @ 234 Near Bowling Green

I-65 @ 234

Make it a great evening and take care.

23 Comments

Monday Afternoon Update

Good Monday afternoon, guys and gals. The day started with snow in many areas and another round of snow is on the way tonight and early Tuesday. This is part of a very wintry week of weather that features another clipper and the potential for a bigger storm for the weekend.

The system coming in tonight should be able to put down some light accumulations for many. Here’s a look at the odds of seeing a light snowfall where you live…

Special 2

This is likely to cause another round of school delays and cancellations… but time, centered father west than where we had them this morning.

The next clipper looks to arrive a little quicker on Thursday. It may get in here in time to start as a period of freezing rain in the north and east. That would change to rain by the afternoon and evening and then over to light snow Thursday night and Friday morning.

GFS

The timing on that will likely cause some travel issues by Friday morning as very cold air pours in along with the light snow.

I continue to watch the weekend potential and so should you. A developing storm system is going to try to roll eastward across the lower Tennessee Valley from late Saturday through Super Bowl Sunday. The Canadian Model…

CanadianCanadian 2That would put a smile on some snow loving faces. Again… it’s important to NOT just look at one model or one single model run at this point. The models, especially the GFS, will continue to jump around with whatever storm system forms out of all this.

That said… the setup is certainly there for a sizeable storm system to POSSIBLY impact our region.

Another update later today. I leave you with some tracking goodies…

Enjoy your afternoon and take care.

 

28 Comments

Watching Black Ice and The Weekend Potential

Good Monday, everyone. We’re starting out the day with crashing temperatures, a touch of light snow and the potential for black ice to form. That may lead to some slick travel across parts of central and eastern Kentucky. This isn’t a huge deal, but it could be enough to cause some issues.

Also, the weekend continues to get my attention and the models are doing what I said they would… find a storm… lose a storm… then find it again. The latest runs found it again and I will show you that in a bit.

The light snow today will mainly impact central and eastern Kentucky. Some pockets of LIGHT accumulations may show up… especially in the east.  Another light snow maker will then roll in from the northwest tonight into Tuesday morning.

The GFS snow totals through Tuesday…

GFS Snow

That’s not terribly impressive, but it would just take a little bit to cause travel problems.

Wednesday looks good and then another clipper moves in late Thursday into Friday. That still looks likes some rain and snow with that.

Our weekend potential is most certainly there, it’s just a matter of how much energy comes out of the southwest and merges with a system diving in from the northwest. The latest runs are going back to our bigger storm idea. The European Model is all in on the storm…

Euro

The Canadian Model shows a healthy storm coming together…

CanadianThe GFS is almost back to showing a biggie…

GFS

The back and forth model runs should continue for a few more days before they lock in on whatever is going to happen.

I have the blog all set for your early day tracking needs…

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road

US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort

US60 @ US127

US 127 @ Frankfort Frankfort

US127 @ Frankfort KY

US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
US60 @ US460

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown
I75 NB @ MP 127

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

Bluegrass Parkway Bardstown

Western Ky Parkway/I-65 Elizabethtown

I-65 MP 32

I-64 @ 3rd St. Exit
Louisville
I-64 @ 3rd St. Exit

Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway
Louisville
Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway

I-64 @ I-264
Louisville
I-64 @ I-264

I-264 @ Freedom Way
Near Louisville International Airport
I-264 @ Freedom Way

 

I-75 at MP 36
London
I-75 @ MP 36

I-75 at MP 23
Corbin
I-75 @ MP 23

I-65 @ 234 Near Bowling Green

I-65 @ 234

Updates come later today. Take care.

31 Comments

Sunday Evening Update

Good evening, gang. I don’t have many new thoughts to add to what I already have out there. Temps will continue to drop tonight and we will see a rapid drop occur from northwest to southeast late tonight. That means temps will drop deep into the 20s and set us up for icy roads.

The Hi-Res NAM sunrise temps…

NAM

The rain will change to a period of light snow across central and eastern Kentucky and we could pick up on some light accumulations. The snow won’t be the big issue. I’m more concerned about a quick freeze up that could lead to some icy travel conditions on untreated roads. We have a lot of water and slush still out there and that will turn to ice in a hurry as temps drop.

I got a tweet tonight that I have to share with you guys. I think this is the look we all have when the word snow is mentioned…

I think we’ve found the blog mascot! ;)

I leave you with the tracking tools…

Enjoy the rest of your evening and take care.

16 Comments

Slick Spots Possible Late Tonight and Monday

Good Sunday afternoon, gang. A clipper is diving into the bluegrass state and will zip across the state tonight. This will bring rain into our region into the evening. That rain will then change to a period of snow tonight into Monday. This means some slick travel could develop in time for the morning rush hour.

The change from rain to snow will first happen in the west and north into this evening. That change will then slowly work toward the east and southeast overnight into Monday morning. The GFS is trying to show a small enhanced band of precipitation just behind the departing low…

GFS

You can also see how moisture lingers across central and eastern Kentucky into Monday as the low bombs out to our east. That’s a setup that can put down some light accumulations of snow around here. The GFS is seeing that possibility…

GFS Snow

As the light snow settles in and the clipper moves east, temps will quickly crash into the low and mid 20s. Let’s do the math here… wet roads followed by some light accumulating snow and temps in the 20s. That can sometimes be a nice recipe for icy roads to develop. We will see if that’s the case late tonight and early Monday.

Another little disturbance dives in from the northwest Monday night and early Tuesday and could bring a swath of light snow with it.

As we go through all this… the possibility of an historic blizzard is increasing across the northeast. Look at the snow forecast from the European for areas around NYC and Boston…

Euro 6

40mph-70mph winds with that? The NWS in Boston thinks it’s possible…

Boston

That would be unreal to experience. Out of curiosity, if I organized a blizzard chase one day… would any of you be interested in going?

Back to our weather… another clipper will move in here late Thursday into Friday with rain to light snow.

What happens with next weekend is still to be determined. Today’s model runs have backed off the big storm idea, but they can’t show something each and every day. The problem we’re seeing with them is how they handle energy coming out of the southwest. They are leaving that energy behind, missing the deep trough digging in from the northwest…

Euro

Of course, the models were doing something similar with the Friday storm and the one getting ready to slam the northeast. We still have plenty of time to watch it. Storm or not… that’s a lot of arctic air coming next weekend into the first week of February.

I have you set to do some clipper tracking…

I will update things again this evening. Take care.

57 Comments