Author Archives: Chris Bailey

Severe Weather Tracker

Good Saturday, everyone. Rounds of thunderstorms will rumble across the bluegrass state today and some of these could be strong or severe. Heavy rains will also accompany the storms, with the potential for some local high water issues.

General run of the mill showers and storms will be around for the first half of the day as a warm front slides through the state. This front will only get so far to the north before slowing down as low pressure sweeps in from the west. Areas along and south of that front and track of the low will have the best threat for severe storms.

Damaging winds, very large hail and a few tornadoes will be possible later this afternoon into the evening. That’s especially true for areas that break out into some sunshine and see thermometers climb into the upper 60s and 70s.

Speaking of temperatures… a 30 degree or greater temperature gradient is likely to be noted across the state today.

As usual, I have all your tracking toys…

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

I will have updates as needed. Take care.

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Saturday Severe Weather Update

Good Friday afternoon, folks. I continue to watch for the increasing possibility of severe weather rolling across Kentucky on Saturday. The current signals indicate the potential for a significant severe weather event across the lower Ohio Valley into the Tennessee Valley.

Here’s a rough outline of the area most at risk…

Special 2

I will have full details on this potential severe weather outbreak on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm. See ya then.

Enjoy the rest of your day and take care.

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Severe Storms Possible Saturday

Good Friday, everyone. From the “only in Kentucky” weather category… frost and freezing conditions start a day in which we quickly turn our focus to potential severe weather. A potent storm systems will roll our way tonight and Saturday with rounds of showers and thunderstorms developing. Buckle up for the ride.

Upper 20s and low 30s will be out there this morning and some record lows may fall. Clouds will increase this afternoon with temps responding into the low and middle 60s for highs.

Showers and storms will then increase from west to east this evening into tonight. That’s when our storm system approaches the region. This looks to ride right on top of the region on Saturday. Along and south of the track of the low is where we will find the threat for strong and severe thunderstorms.

The future radar from the NAM shows some hefty showers and storms around early Saturday…

NAM 3That’s on the leading edge of warmer air pushing into the region. Check out the amazing temperature for afternoon high temps…

NAM 2

The farther north the warmer air gets, the greater the instability and the greater the threat for severe storms where you live.

The NAM shows a couple of intense rounds of storms developing during the afternoon and evening…

NAM 4

That could fire up some big time storms around here… you are officially on notice for the severe potential.

Things clear up by later Sunday and that takes us into Monday as temps remain cooler than normal. Another rain maker is possible later Tuesday into Wednesday.

Looking for some good news? Temps will likely spike for Kentucky Derby weekend…

Euro 2I will have a severe weather update coming your way later today. Take care.

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Watching A Potent Weekend Storm

Good Thursday, everyone. It’s another colder than normal day across the bluegrass state, but we have a mostly sunny sky to go along with it. That’s the good news. The bad news? A potent storm system rolls our way for the weekend and could deliver severe storms and heavy rain.

It’s a scenario that all depends on the track of the low for Saturday. The farther north this low comes, the warmer we get and the better the threat for strong and severe storms. The NAM is the farthest north of the bunch and would spawn some hefty late day storms…

NAM 2

The European Model is a bit farther to the south with the low on Saturday…

Euro

Either scenario would bring rounds of showers and storms across the state from Friday night through Saturday night. The European model would limit the severe threat much more than what the NAM would suggest. Both models do bring more than 1″ of rain to many areas.

This system will have a mega temperature gradient to work with. This is a 40 degree difference showing up on the European for Saturday highs…

Euro 2Sunday will see skies clearing out by the afternoon. Monday looks ok, but another system takes aim at the region by Tuesday and Wednesday. That has some ugly on it.

Have a great day and take care.

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A Frosty Chill In The Air

Good Wednesday, everyone. The month of April has been a rather ugly one up until this point. Record rains have been common. This ugly setup looks to roll on through the rest of the month, but with a twist. Much colder air has invaded the state and this could lead to some frost in the coming days.

The ugliness comes early today and involves a band of gusty showers and thunderstorms working through ahead of a cold front. Winds of 30mph+ will be possible at times. Skies will clear quickly during the afternoon with temps mainly in the 50s for highs.

From here, we have to be on guard for frost and light freezing temperatures. Temps for Thursday and Friday mornings will drop into the low 30s for many. A few pockets of upper 20s will be possible. Protect the tender plants and vegetation.

Another storm system rolls our way with rain becoming likely Friday night into Saturday…

Euro

Depending on the track of the storm, one insane temperature gradient may set up across the state. The European high temps for Staurday…

Euro 2

The GFS is similar…

GFS TEMPS 1

Yea… that’s a “wow” look to the maps. The farther north the low goes, the warmer you are. The farther south, the colder.

Sunday looks better, but another ugly storm rolls our way later Monday and Tuesday. This looks like wintertime…

GFSThis pattern is going to try to flip on a dime to an out and out warm one. Odds favor that taking place during the first week of May.

Have a great day and take care.

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Chilly and Ugly Days Ahead

Good Tuesday, folks. Spring is taking a break for the next week or two as chilly and ugly weather takes up residence across Kentucky and surrounding states. This could make for some very nasty days and will put green thumbs on high alert for the frost and freeze potential.

Temps today will struggle to get into the low 60s on a gusty wind. Skies will be partly sunny with the chance for a shower or storm going up.

A reinforcing shot of cold air sweeps closer tonight and Wednesday. Highs may not get out of the mid and upper 50s with the chance for some scattered showers and storms.

NAM 2Small hail will be possible with any shower or storm that goes up.

Temps continue to run very chilly with highs in the 50s for Wednesday. Lows by Thursday and Friday will drop toward the upper 20s and low 30s. Frost is a REAL concern!

Another system scoots our way late Friday into Saturday with rain likely. The European Model is a soaker…

Euro 3

That would be a very chilly rain with that kind of track. If clouds and rain hang tough all day Saturday, it’s possible for some spots to stay in the high 40s and low 50s.

Clearing skies by Sunday morning would set the stage for another frost or freeze threat…

GFS 2The winter looking pattern continues into early next week with the models forecasting another system working to our south… 

GFS 3

The European Model is going with a very ugly closed low solution during that time…

Euro 4

Enjoy your spring break, spring!

You have a good day and take care.

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A Frosty Chill Follows The Storms

Good Monday to one and all. It’s another day of showers and thunderstorms working across the bluegrass state. This action is ahead of a nice push of chilly air that may deliver frost and freezing conditions later in the week. This is part of an upper level pattern that looks like something from the heart of winter as opposed to the heart of Spring.

Today’s showers and rumbles of thunder will put down some locally heavy rains as a cold front moves through here. Winds will be very gusty as the chilly air blows in behind the front late in the day. This will knock our temps down closer to 60 degrees for a high on Tuesday.

A second push of colder air moves in Tuesday night and Wednesday. That may produce some small hail producing showers and storms…

NAM

The air coming in behind that could take our temps into the upper 20s and low 30s by the end of the week. Green thumbs are officially on high alert.

Another storm system is going to try to roll our way by late Friday into Saturday. Rounds of heavy rain could be possible during this time…

Euro

Forecast high temps for those two days look UGLY…

Euro 2

I would hide my eyes if I hadn’t already seen it. :)

Here’s what you need to track today’s rain…

 

 

Make it a great Monday and take care.

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Heavy Rain and Storms Tracker

Good Sunday, everyone. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are rumbling across the bluegrass state… Again. Some of the storms could be on the strong side with more heavy rain across the board. All of this is on the cusp of some frosty air coming in for next week. More on that in a bit.

Let’s start with the soggy setup we have out there today.

Radar will look pretty wicked at times as showers and storms rotate around an area of low pressure lifting northward across the western Ohio Valley. Waves of storms come at us from the south and southwest this morning into the afternoon. A few could be on the strong side, but all will contain heavy rain.

The heavy amounts of rain could lead to some local high water issues.

If we break out into some sunshine this afternoon, our severe weather threat will increase. High winds and hail would be the primary threats from the storms that go up.

Additional rounds of showers and storms will then move through on Monday as a strong cold front sweeps eastward. Rainfall totals through Monday should average 1″-2″ for many areas. Higher amounts will be possible for those getting in on stronger storms.

Chilly air then pushes in from Tuesday through the rest of the week. Impulses rotating around the base of the trough may produce some small hail producing showers and storms by Wednesday or Thursday. Any night that has clear skies could turn frosty. As a matter of fact, many models are suggesting sub-freezing temps as a possibility…

GFS Temps

In the short term, it’s all about heavy rain and storms. I have you all set to do some tracking…

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

I will have updates as needed. Have a great day and take care.

 

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A Stormy Sunday Ahead

Good Saturday, everyone. Today is shaping up to be a very nice weather day across the bluegrass state with some sun and warm temperatures. The focus of the forecast is on the potential for severe storms and heavy rains returning for Sunday.

The setup for tomorrow finds a big dip in the jet stream working in from the west…

Euro I’ve highlighted a large area most at risk for heavy rain and severe storms. That extends from the deep south into the Ohio Valley.

It appears we get one wave of strong storms and heavy rain to swing in from the southwest late Saturday night into Sunday morning. That would then be followed by additional storms developing later in the day. Those could be the ones to really ramp up on us. The NAM shows what I’m talking about…

NAMShowers and storms would then continue into Monday as a strong cold front moves through here. Temps behind that front will tank with highs by Tuesday only topping out around 60 degrees. Some upper 30s will be possible Tuesday and Wednesday if we can clean the skies up.

Additional rounds of showers and storms will likely fire up up late next week through the weekend. That’s a setup that could produce some strong storms and heavy rains.

Does any of that surprise you? Didn’t think so.

Make it a great day and take care.

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A Half and Half Weekend

Good Friday, everyone. Our weekend is ready to kick off with much better weather across the commonwealth of Kentucky. Warmer temps are surging in across the region today and that will come with MAINLY dry weather. Don’t get too used to it, showers and storms return to end the weekend.

Isolated showers and storms are possible today as temps climb into the mid and upper 70s. Winds will be very gusty.

Saturday looks even better with sunny skies and thermometers reaching the upper 70s for some. Clouds will increase as some scattered showers and storms return Saturday night into Sunday…

GFS

There is the potential for strong or severe storms on Sunday and that’s something we have to keep a close eye on. Those same storms my drop another inch or two of rain that can lead to additional high water issues.

A strong cold front then blasts through here on Monday, putting an end to the showers and storms. Much cooler air comes in behind that and we could even see some patchy frost by the middle of the week.

Another stormy and wet pattern then tries to develop late next week through the following weekend. The GFS 2 week rainfall forecast continues to look UGLY…

GFS Rain 2I leave you with some Friday tracking toys…

Enjoy your Friday and take care.

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