Author Archives: Chris Bailey

Time posted: 2:09 am

Record Highs and Severe Storms For Friday

Good Thursday, everyone. We have some amazing weather taking place across the region over the next few days. From record highs, severe storms, a temperature crash and a passing snow flurry… Things are taking a walk on the wild side.

Let’s begin with today and move forward.

Some fog will star the day, so be alert if driving. Highs will reach 70-75 for most areas with a mix of sun and clouds. There is a small chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms going up.

Friday is one of those flat our amazing weather days. Daily record highs should bite the dust fairly quickly and readings can challenge all time February and winter high temps. 75-80 degree high temps should be common on a gusty southwesterly wind that can crank to near 40mph at times.

This is ahead of a stout cold front working in here during the evening. A squall line of strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible, with damaging winds the main threat. Isolated tornadoes are also a possibility. Here’s the latest from the Storm Prediction Center…

Much colder air then swings in here on Saturday as temps drop into the upper 30s and low 40s. After a clear start, watch for some backwash clouds working in here with a few snow flurries possible later in the day…

GFS snow

This comes less than 24 hours of one of our warmest winter days on record. Wow.

Sunday looks seasonal and mainly dry. That changes in a hurry by Monday as another system brings rain and some thunder our way. The GFS is the most robust with it…

GFS

Much milder air then sweeps in here for Tuesday and Wednesday as readings go back into the 60s. This is ahead of another potent storm system that can bring heavy rain and some strong storms our way.

I will update things later today. Make it a good one and take care.

4 Comments

Time posted: 7:42 pm

Wednesday Evening Update

Good evening, gang. We have a very warm temperature surge blowing in over the next few days. This can give us one of the all time warmest days on record for the month of February. This can lead us into some strong or severe thunderstorms before a taste of winter moves in this weekend.

After a foggy start, sunshine returns on Thursday with highs reaching the 70-75 degree range for many areas.

Friday is the crazy warm day with readings in the mid and upper 70s. Can we get an 80 degree high temp to show up? It’s possible.  Winds will be very gusty from the southwest, ahead of a potent cold front moving int. This will fire up a squall line of strong to severe storms during the evening. Here’s the latest risk area from the Storm Prediction Center…

SPC

Damaging wind appears to be the main threat from these storms.

Temps crash quickly from west to east and there is even a chance to see some snow flurries on Saturday. Temps by Sunday morning drop into the hard freeze level with low and mid 20s likely.

Sunday is seasonal with 40s.

Another system zips in here on Monday with an increase in rain and maybe a rumble of thunder…

GFS 2

That’s on the nose of another surge of warm air moving in here for Tuesday and Wednesday. That’s ahead of another potent storm that can bring additional big storms and heavy rains…

GFS 3

The GFS has some hefty totals over the next week…

GFS Rain

Once we get past that, there are signs of cold trying to win the fight into the first few weeks of March. This is a very ugly look showing up…

GFS GIf

Green Thumbs are in trouble as we roll into March.

Enjoy your evening and take care.

8 Comments

Time posted: 2:19 am

Record Highs Before Strong Storms Threat

Good Wednesday to one and all. We have a split personality day taking shape across the bluegrass state. Rainy morning will slowly give way to partly sunny skies and much milder temps this afternoon. This is ahead of a setup that can challenge all time February high temps over the next few days, and give us some big storms.

Showers will be likely out there this morning across the central and east, with slow clearing during the afternoon. Temps will be 70 in the west and near 60 in the far southeast, where the clouds linger longer…

Temperatures on Thursday will rise into the low and middle 70s with a mix of sun and clouds. There is a very small chance for a shower or storm going up.

All-time monthly high temps may be threatened on Friday. If we take Lexington as the focal point, 80 is the all time high from February 23, 1996. Highs on Friday should range from 75-80 degrees. That, my friends, is pretty darn awesome.

This warm air is ahead of a powerhouse of a cold front moving in Friday evening. This may produce a squall line of strong to severe thunderstorms racing from west to east…

GFS

Much colder air crashes in behind that with temps dropping into the upper 30s and low 40s for a time on Saturday. The GFS keeps showing a few snowflakes…

GFS snow

A warm front will then lift northward across the region on Monday and that will touch off showers and thunderstorms…

GFS

This will introduce another surge of very warm air that leads us into another potent storm system. This one could bring very heavy rain and strong storms our way by the middle of next week…

GFS 2

Colder would follow that, with another warm up and storm likely a few days later.

As I’ve been saying, this is a very active pattern that will put down a lot of precipitation across our region in the coming weeks.

I will have another update later today. Make it a great day and take care.

27 Comments

Time posted: 7:45 pm

Tuesday Evening Update

Good evening, folks. It’s been another warm day with some record temperatures falling across the bluegrass state. This warm air hangs tough through Friday with additional record highs likely to fall. Once past Friday, we get into more of a back and forth battle with the temps, leading to a busy pattern.

Scattered showers are on the move out there today. This isn’t a constant rain, but it will continue through the first half of Wednesday for some…

Temps tomorrow ill be cooler in the easy and much warmer in the west.

Isolated storms will be possible on Thursday as temps take off once again. Afternoon temps can reach 70-75 for areas getting enough sun. Records for this day are pretty steep and around 80 from back in 1996.

Friday is a day that we can really see temps taking off and reaching mid and upper 70s in some areas. Winds will be very gusty ahead of a cold front moving in with strong or severe storms…

GFS

Here’s the super early risk area from the SPC…

SPC

Colder air then moves in here on Saturday with the chance for some snowflakes and temps in the upper 30s to low 40s.

The GFS continues to show a weak system with a touch of rain and snow by Sunday night…

GFS 2

That’s ahead of a big surge in temps on Monday that can lead to additional thunderstorms developing along a warm front…

GFS 3

Temps can hit 70 again by Tuesday and Wednesday as another strong system rolls our way. This can bring heavy rain and strong storms…

GFS 4

Colder air follows that up and that basically is our pattern over the next few weeks. That back and forth will lead to an active storm track across our region with heavy precipitation totals. The average of 22 members from the GFS Ensembles is impressive over a 2 week span…

GFS Rain 2

Have a great evening and take care.

4 Comments

Time posted: 2:05 am

Tracking Showers and A Busy Pattern

Good Tuesday, everyone. It’s a full blown case of Spring Fever breaking out across the region, but colder times are lurking for the weekend. This will be the beginning of a very busy weather pattern taking over as spring and winter stage a battle right on top of our region.

Let’s start with today and roll forward. Temps will be mild, but how mild those numbers get depend on when the clouds and rain arrive where you live. The central and east can make a run at 70 before the showers roll in. Locally heavy rains will be possible from this evening into early Wednesday…

The showers will move away on Wednesday with increasing amounts of sun from west to east. This should set up quite the temp gradient with low 70s west and low 60s east.

Temps for Thursday and Friday shoot right back into the 70s and could set records. Winds will be gusty from the southwest ahead of a potent storm system. That can give us a squall line of strong to severe storms racing across the state Friday afternoon and Friday evening.

GFS 2

Much colder air then crashes in here for Saturday. Some snowflakes may filter in on a strong northwesterly flow…

GFS snow 2

Highs Saturday may not get to 40 degrees in some areas.

The GFS then brings a fast-moving rain/snow system across the region Sunday into Sunday night…

GFS 3

That’s on the nose of warmer air pushing in for early next week. This will be ahead of a slow-moving system that may produce significant rains in our region. Check out the totals over the next week or so on the GFS…

GFS Rain 2

We are going to find ourselves in the path of several big storm systems in the coming weeks.

I will update things later today. Make it a good one and take care.

10 Comments