Author Archives: Chris Bailey

Time posted: 1:33 am

Another Stormy Setup Looming

Good Thursday, everyone. A little more than a week ago, I started getting a few folks asking me why I was the only one not forecasting sun and 70s for Derby week. This week I hear nothing but crickets. :) You will be hard pressed to find a first week of May with more ugly than what we’ve been seeing this week.

Where do we go from here? I’ve made no bones about the fact I think this pattern stays stormy with a burst of severe weather coming.

Before I get into that, let’s talk about the weather we have out there today. It’s flat out ugly!! Temps will start in the upper 30s to low 40 in many areas, and only reach the 50s for highs. Gusty showers will be with us, especially central and eastern Kentucky. Some of those highest mountain tops just to our southeast may actually see a few snowflakes.

Your ugly weather trackers…

Some leftover showers may linger into Friday across eastern Kentucky. Temps there will struggle into the 60-65 degree range. The rest of the state enjoys increasing amounts of sun with temps warming into the upper 60s to low 70s. Things look good for the Kentucky Oaks.

The Kentucky Derby has some question marks. There’s the chance for a stray shower or storm going up during the day as warmer air pushes in. Temps generally hit the upper 70s during the afternoon. From there, we’re likely to see a line of showers and thunderstorms popping just to our north and dropping into the region. The exact timing of that is obviously critical to the Kentucky Derby. It’s going to be a close call.

That line sinks in Saturday evening into Sunday morning…

GFS

That front goes stationary for Mother’s Day with scattered storms a good bet.

This leads us back into a pattern featuring warm air across our region and points southeast, with series of systems diving into the plains states…

Euro

That should generate rounds of showers and storms as each piece of energy lifts northeastward across the Ohio Valley and Midwest. The GFS for Tuesday and Wednesday…

GFS 3

The GFS over the next few weeks shows a lot of rain from the plains states to the east coast…

GFS 2

I told ya, you wouldn’t be complaining about it being dry for much longer.

Make it a great Thursday and take care.

1 Comment

Time posted: 1:14 am

Watching Kentucky Derby Weekend

Good Wednesday to one and all. Damp and chilly weather has control of our weather for a few more days. From there, it’s time to get down to business about Kentucky Derby Weekend. While out temps start to warm, a few storms may try to crash our big day.

Our Wednesday of weather features a strong cold front diving in from the north with showers and storms ahead of it. Gusty wind and small hail may accompany this action. Another half inch of rain is likely for central and eastern Kentucky, with locally higher amounts.

Scattered showers and chilly temps last into Thursday as this monster trough digs in…

Euro

That would look REALLY good in the wintertime!!!

That system pulls away on Kentucky Oaks Day with a leftover shower possible in the far east. The farther west you go, the better the weather as temps rebound.

Kentucky Derby Saturday will feature temps warming into the 70s ahead of a cold front dropping in from the northwest. We may see a line of showers and storms approaching the region later in the afternoon and evening…

Canadian 2

The timing on that is absolutely crucial, and the arrival time has been speeding up on the latest model runs. That’s not what we want to hear. All the models are spitting out rainfall Saturday into Saturday night.

The Canadian Model is amped up…

Canadian

The GFS is, too…

GFS

Again, those totals are just from Saturday into Saturday night.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see a round of strong storms dropping into the region from the northwest during this time. This should kickoff a setup that features a much better threat for severe weather over the next few weeks. The GFS rainfall forecast over the next week and change…

GFS 2

Here’s what you need to track today’s action…

Enjoy the day and take care.

6 Comments

Time posted: 1:07 am

Here Comes The Chill

Good Tuesday, everyone. Some ugly weather is rolling into the region over the next few days, and this will send our temps into the well below normal range. This chill in the air has been on our radar for the past few weeks, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise to regular readers. :)

Let’s begin with today and trudge ahead.

Highs will generally run in the 60s with some isolated showers and thunderstorms going up. This action will really pick up the pace as we roll into Wednesday as a strong cold front dives in from the north. Winds will be very gusty and these storm could contain some small hail. Afternoon readings may drop into the 50s as the chilly air surges in.

This is ugly through Thursday…

Euro

Euro 2

Additional showers may be with us Thursday afternoon. Lows to start the day are cold for early May…

GFS TEMPS 1

Maybe a touch of frost?

Afternoon temps may REALLY struggle for many…

GFS TEMPS 2

As it stands now, the upper low moves away from the region for Oaks Day and Derby Day. If it works that way, conditions will be much, much better. Derby Day temps may really take off…

GFS TEMPS 3

While that is great and all, there is a weak front dropping in from the north that can bring some late day showers and thunderstorms…

Canadian

We really need to be on guard over the next few weeks for a burst of severe weather across our region. The signs are there for multiple events from the plains into the Ohio Valley.

I leave you with your daily dose of radars…

Enjoy the day and take care.

6 Comments

Time posted: 1:39 am

Our Busy Pattern Continues

Good Monday to one and all. Our weather pattern has been a very busy over the past week and this pattern rolls into Kentucky Derby Week. Additional rounds of showers and storms will be joined by cooler than normal temperatures in the coming days. There is even the chance for some frost before the week is over.

Today’s focus of the forecast is on a southern stream system bringing some showers and storms to central and eastern Kentucky. The best chance for this action is across southeastern Kentucky, where heavy rain is a real threat. This could lead to additional high water issues in this area.

Track away…

Once this moves away, it’s game on for a significant upper level system to drop in from the northwest late Tuesday. This cuts off across the region with unsettled weather through Friday…

Euro

As that dives in, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few strong thunderstorms. Once it gets in here, we will see a daily threat for a shower of small hail producing thunderstorm through Friday. At night skies can clear, allowing temps to really drop. There’s the chance for some mid and upper 30s by the end of the week with a kiss of frost possible.

The latest model forecasts allow that upper system to slip off to our east by Kentucky Derby Saturday, but it’s a close call. The latest European Model then lets another front drop in from the north by Saturday night and Sunday. That has some additional showers and storms…

Euro 2

Enjoy your Monday and take care.

2 Comments

Time posted: 1:39 am

Some Ugly Weather To Start May

Good Sunday, folks. Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are marching across the state to begin the month of May. This bumpy first day is indicative of how the first week of the new month looks to be. That doesn’t bode well for all the festivities for Derby week.

Today’s showers and storms will continue to come at us in waves. Heavy rains may cause some local high water issues, and some strong or local severe storms will be possible. The tracking toys in a bit.

MUCH cooler air moves in for Monday as a new storm system begins to impact our region from the southwest. This should bring another round of rain and thunder from later Monday into Tuesday. The NAM…

NAM

Once again, heavy rains will be possible from this system. Highs Monday may hit 70 before the storms move in, but may struggle to get out of the 50s by Tuesday.

From there, it’s more ugly moving in from a HUGE upper level low cutting off across the region. Here’s the look Wednesday and Thursday…

GFS

That’s from the European and it’s nasty! That same model run keeps that system very close to us to start Derby Weekend…

Euro 2

Here’s hoping that continues to take a wobble toward the east, allowing for some better weather to blow in.

Temps this week are kinda ugly. Check out the below normal numbers…

GFS Temps

Your Sunday Storm Trackers…

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current Watches
Current Watches

Possible Watch Areas
Current MDs

Enjoy your Sunday and take care.

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