Author Archives: Chris Bailey

Time posted: 1:45 am

Looking For Rain Chances

Good Friday, folks. The number of dry weather days continues to add up for the bluegrass state, but there are signs of a subtle pattern shift in the coming days. It’s a small shift, but it’s one that will bring the best threat of rain many of us have seen in a month or so. A bonus of this shift will also be temps coming down some, but still averaging above normal.

Our Friday will find temps from the upper 70s to low 80s across the central and east with middle 80s west. A mix of sun and clouds will be noted and, just like the past few days, a spotty shower or storm may go up. Most of the state is dry, but your regional radar MAY pick up on a blip or two…

Our weekend looks VERY warm and rather windy, so abide by local burning restrictions. A cold front will then work in here Sunday night and Monday, bringing the potential for showers and storms. Here’s how the NAM sees it arriving Sunday night…

Here’s the Canadian through Monday night…

This isn’t likely to be a full blown soaking rain, but we will take whatever we can get at this point. Temps will be very pleasant and near normal behind this front.

The pattern continues to look a little active behind this boundary and could throw one or two more rain chances at us later next week…

After we get through whatever comes at us next week, the setup for the final few days of September into the first week of October looks super toasty. Folks, this is a very warm pattern that will continue through the middle of October. The setup is there for a bad forest fire season in our neck of the woods.

I’ll talk more about the rain threats and will look at more fall and winter stuff this weekend, so check back. Make it a fantastic Friday and take care.


Time posted: 1:34 am

Feeling A Bit Better For A Few Days

Good Thursday, folks. A little cooler air continues to slowly take control of the pattern as we roll into the final few days of the week. “Cooler” is the word… Not cool. Temps recover heading into the weekend as we begin to focus on a cold front working our way from the west. This front should bring the best chance of rain in roughly a month.

Let’s begin with today then roll forward. A few low-level clouds will be noted across areas of central and eastern Kentucky. I can’t rule out a stray shower or storm going up, but I wouldn’t be betting the farm on it. Here’s regional radar in case you lose the farm…

Temps today may not make it out of the 70s for areas keeping clouds into the afternoon. For those who don’t…80-85 likely shows up.

Friday looks similar with a mix of sun and clouds and pleasant temps. There is still a tiny chance for a stray shower going up. Overall, Friday looks like a pretty nice weather day.

Hurricane Humberto continues to churn toward the open Atlantic and will have zero direct impact on the US. What’s left of Imelda continues to drench parts of east Texas and Louisiana.

Jerry should become a hurricane today as it works toward the Caribbean through the weekend…

cone graphic

This storm is likely to curve and take a similar track to Humberto, but the transition between the two should allow for a couple of cold fronts to sweep into the region next week. The first arrives Monday with some showers and storms, with the other moving in around Wednesday. There’s pretty good model agreement on this scenario…




On paper, those two fronts should bring the best rain chance to our region in nearly a month. Those fronts should also mean temps could actually be seasonal for a few days.

Don’t get used to it because I firmly believe this warmer than normal setup carries us through early October.

Have a happy Thursday and take care.


Time posted: 1:51 am

A Few Changes Roll In

Good Wednesday to one and all. It’s dry and it’s much warmer than normal. That’s been the case for each and every day so far for the month of September. But, a few changes are showing up over the next few days. These changes mean cooler temps and even a stray shower or thunderstorm.

We are watching the eastern sky today for some clouds working against the grain. This is courtesy of a disturbance working from east to west and this may produce a shower or storm. The best chance is across the south and southeast…

Temps will be very warm in the west and could flirt with 90. Lots of middle 80s show up elsewhere.

Cooler winds come at us on Thursday and we have to be on guard for some low clouds and even a few stray showers. If those clouds do stick around, temps could be held in the 70s and that’s exactly what the NAM is showing…

Friday has the makings of a pretty nice weather day with fairly low humidity and near normal temps as a weak high builds in from the east…

Temps recover some as we head into the weekend as our flow becomes southwesterly. This is ahead of a front that sweeps in here late Sunday into Monday. This looks to give us the best chance for rain in nearly a month. It may also be followed by another system…

That’s a much better looking setup for temps and rainfall, so let’s hope it pans out.

Let’s head back to the tropics to see how things are playing out because the tropics will continue have a lot to say about the upcoming pattern. Humberto continues to slide toward Bermuda then harmlessly out to sea…

cone graphic

As expected, the system behind it is strengthening and should become a hurricane in the coming days. The track on this may take it toward the Caribbean by the weekend…

cone graphic

The system we talked about developing near Texas did just that and is bringing major floods to areas around Houston.

Have a great day and take care.