Author Archives: Chris Bailey

Time posted: 1:10 am

A Very Active Pattern Continues

Good Tuesday, everyone. We are rolling our way into another steamy setup for the rest of the week. This steam is going to give way to storms by the coming weekend. That’s when a cold front moves in and slows down on top of the region.

Let’s begin with today and roll forward. Temps surge into the upper 80s west, with 80-85 for the rest of the state. A few showers or storms will be noted from time to time.

Highs for Wednesday and Thursday will reach deep into the 80s and may even hit 90 in the west. High humidity levels will continue to be noted.

A cold front drops into the region later Friday into Saturday and becomes stationary. The end result will be rounds of showers and storms…

Locally heavy rains are a good bet during this time. I will focus more on this over the next few days.

I talked about all that amazing amount of early season snow and cold up in Canada and how that cold is likely to make a run at us to end the month and kick off October.

Check out the deeeeeeeeeeeeeep trough on the European Ensembles…

That thumb ridge in Alaska and western Canada is a thing of beauty and is something snow and cold lovers want to see as we head into the cold weather season.

Yesterday, I posted the CFS maps that were trying to bring a taste of early season winter action into the Ohio Valley. These are really just for fun to look at, but they have been doing a really good job in showing all this wet weather. Now, we have a second seasonal model suggesting some October flake action. Here’s the European Ensembles through October…

That’s interesting and may actually have some merit. Why? The crazy cold in Canada isn’t just going to disappear.

Oh yeah… the same model run keeps us above normal on rains…

 

I leave you with your tracking toys for the day.

Make it a great day and take care.

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Time posted: 1:36 am

Looking Beyond Florence

Good Monday, folks. Florence continues to slowly work across the eastern half of the state, bringing gusty winds and heavy rains. This system has dominated our coverage for the past week and change, but it’s now time to talk about where we go after this, including some long range stuff. 🙂

Today is rainy and windy across central and eastern Kentucky, and it still looks likely only a local high water threat. Most areas will not see any kind of high water, so that’s awesome!!

Leftover showers will be around on Tuesday with temps back into the 80-85 degree range. Steamy temps then settle back in for Wednesday and Thursday as the numbers climb a few more degrees. Humidity levels continue to run abnormally high… A trend we have seen all year.

A cold front approaches the state by Friday and Saturday and will likely slow down on top of the region this weekend. That likely spells rounds of showers and storms…

There is an amazing build up of early season cold taking place in Canada, with some areas seeing record snowfall for so early in the year. That cold is likely to throw a big jab at us before the month ends…

With this kind of temperature gradient setting up, maybe some fall severe storms?

I mentioned the early season snow in Canada already showing up. Some of that snow may sneak south of the border into the states before September is over. Check out the Ensembles snow forecast for the next two weeks…

GFS Ensembles

European Ensembles

It’s interesting to see the CFS going cold for October…

I’m not sure I’m ready to buy October being that cold of a month. I do think it gives us an early season frost threat, but I don’t think it’s wall to wall cold.

Oh year, FOR ENTERTAINMENT PUROPSES ONLY… the same run of the CFS had mid month flakes deep into the country…

Going out on a limb here and saying that’s not likely to happen. 😉

Here are your tracking tools to start the week…

Make it a great Monday and take care.

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Time posted: 2:29 am

Florence Set To Visit Kentucky

Good Sunday, everyone. Kentucky is getting a visit from Florence later today into Monday. This former hurricane may still be a Tropical Depression as it blows into the bluegrass state. This system will bring gusty winds and rounds of heavy rain producing showers and storms through Monday.

I literally have no changes to the thoughts I’ve been throwing your way for the past week or so. That said, let’s do a little recapping:

  • The track of our Tropical Depression/remnant low is likely along or east of Interstate 75 tonight and early Monday. It’s along and east of the track that the heaviest rains will fall.
  • Rounds of showers and storms will put it down in a hurry as they move through. That action increases from southeast to northeast through the day today.
  • A general 1″-3″ of rain will fall through Monday, with the potential for locally higher amounts. Once west of Interstate 65, the numbers are likely to drop off.
  • Local high water issues are very possible through Monday. That said, this doesn’t look anything like what we went through last weekend with Gordon.
  • Winds will be another big factor today. Local gusts may reach 40mph-45mph at times. Those high mountains in the east may even get a few higher gusts.

I have you all set to do some Tropical Depression tracking…

cone graphic

I will update as needed, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 4:20 pm

Florence Moves In Sunday

Good evening, gang. Florence continues to move very slowly and it’s also slowly weakening as it moves across South Carolina. This will move into Kentucky late Sunday and early Monday as a Tropical Depression. This is the third tropical system of the season to move into our region.

Here’s the latest from the NHC on Florence…

cone graphic

That depression should roll right on top of central and eastern Kentucky over the next 48 hours. Watch the south to north movement, before it turns northeast and then east across Ohio…

Some quick headlines:

  • Rounds of showers and storms will be common Sunday through Monday night.
  • A general 1″-3″ of rain is possible for much of central and eastern Kentucky. Thunderstorms are capable of dropping a little more.
  • Local high water issues are very possible during this time.
  • Wind gusts Sunday into Sunday night can reach 40-45mph at times. Gusts may still hit 30mph behind the departing low on Monday.

Scattered storms are going up this afternoon and evening. Here are your tracking tools to follow along…

I’m actually working on WKYT-TV tonight, so tune in. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 1:57 am

Tracking Florence Toward Kentucky

Good Saturday, everyone. Florence continues to slowly work across South Carolina, dumping a tremendous amount of rain along the way. This system begins to turn to the northwest later today into Sunday, then will pass right on top of us Sunday night and Monday.

My overall thoughts with this system have not changed much at all this week. This continues to look like a heavy rain and gusty wind maker over the next few days.

Let’s start you out with the latest from the National Hurricane Center…

cone graphic

The interactive radar is a work of art for storm trackers. Do some exploring with it and you’re going to find all kinds of neat tools…

The Hurricane Models have been VERY consistent with the forecast track so far, and they are locked in on the Florence to Kentucky scenario…

The GFS Ensembles are also doing really good work in the track department…

Some thoughts on the next few days:

  • Scattered showers and storms will be around this afternoon and evening. Temps are pretty steamy and tropical feeling.
  • What’s left of Florence moves from south to north across the eastern half of Kentucky later Sunday into early Monday. This could still be a tropical depression as it moves in.
  • Given the relatively fast movement of this system, it shouldn’t be able to come close to rain totals from last weekend.
  • A general 1″-3″ of rain is possible across central and eastern Kentucky with locally higher amounts. Some areas of the west may not see very much rain, if any. Here’s a rough outline…

  • Given the recent rains, local high water issues may develop across the east.
  • Winds will be fairly gusty as this system moves through. Gusts of 30-40mph will be possible Sunday and Sunday night. A few gusts can top out near 45mph.

 

I will hook you up with another update later today. Until then, let’s track today’s scattered storms…

Make it a good one and take care.

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