Author Archives: Chris Bailey

Tropical Temps and Scattered Storms

Good Wednesday, everyone. We continue to have an early season taste of the tropics across the bluegrass state. Very warm temps, muggy air and a daily threat for showers and thunderstorms will be with us for the rest of the week and into the weekend.

Highs from today through Saturday should run in the low and middle 80s. Some upper 80s will be possible on any day featuring enough sunshine. Daily showers and storms will be around in scattered fashion. The action will increase by the end of the week as a cold front nears the area.

You can see this boundary moving in over the weekend…

GFSStorms ahead of this may pack quite the punch. Some strong or severe boomers will be possible.

That front checks up across the region and slowly lifts back to the north, allowing warm and humid air to return. That should keep the storm chances going. The GFS rainfall forecast into next week…

GFS Rain

The same model run expanded out to two weeks…

 

GFS Rain 2I leave you with your daily dose of tracking tools…

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

Enjoy the day and take care.

4 Comments

A Few Strong or Severe Storms Possible

Good Tuesday, folks. We have rounds of showers and storms rumbling across the bluegrass state today. Some of these storms may be on the strong or severe side. This still looks like the beginning of a rather stormy and wet period across our part of the world.

A daily threat for showers and storms will be with us for the rest of the week and that may carry us all the way through next week. The GFS continues to insist on the axis of heaviest rains shifting from the plains states back into our part of the world. The latest 2 week rainfall forecast…

GFS RainBack to the present day potential of scattered severe storms. Large hail and damaging winds would be the primary threats for us to watch for if the storms can get cranking. Heavy rainfall will also be a good possibility during this time.

Let’s get to tracking…

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

Make it a great day and take care.

4 Comments

Much wetter pattern taking shape

Good Monday, everyone. On this Memorial Day, let’s take a moment and remember those service men and women who’ve given the ultimate sacrifice protecting this great country. While we’re at it, let’s say a big thank you to all those who have, and continue, to serve our nation.

On a weather note, things are looking much more active this week and beyond. Coming off a soaking March and April, May has turned pretty dry across the bluegrass state. Even with the drier than normal May, to date, many areas are still on pace for a top 5 wettest spring on record.

That early spring wet pattern is showing signs of kicking back in as we roll through the rest of May into early Summer. The new CFS 45 day rainfall forecast shows what I’m talking about…

CFS

It’s shifting the corridor of heaviest rains from Texas and Oklahoma back to the east into our region. You can look at that map and infer a lot of deep tropical air across our region as the real heat centers itself east of the Appalachian Mountains. This looks like a super hot summer for areas to our east and southeast.

Back to the weather back in the bluegrass state. Scattered showers and storms roll across the state from west to east today. Locally heavy downpours and a lot of lightning (LOL) will be noted in the stronger storms. Keep that in mind for your outdoor activities.

Rounds of showers and storms will become more common from Tuesday through the end of the week. A few stromr or severe storms will be possible. That action may continue into the weekend as a healthy cold front approaches from the northwest. The GFS rainfall forecast during this time…

GFS

Expand that out to the next two weeks…

GFS 2

You can definitely see how the model starts to push the heavier rains eastward, ala the CFS.

I leave you with your tracking tools…

 

 

Have a great Memorial Day and take care.

12 Comments

Taking A Long Look Ahead

Good Sunday, everyone. We have scattered showers and thunderstorms getting ready to blossom across the bluegrass state. That’s what we have to look forward to for the week ahead. But, what about MUCH farther down the road? I’m glad I asked that question. :)

Let’s start with where we are now and roll way, way forward. Highs on this Sunday should reach the low and middle 80s with an increase in humidity. Isolated storms may develop with the best chance in the west.

Storm chances increase on Memorial Day and into Tuesday…

NAM

Scattered storms should continue into much of next week with the potential of some needed, and heavy, rains.

Let’s talk about the loooong range forecast from one of our seasonal computer models. This is known as the JAMSTEC and it’s one I’ve posted many times on here. I’ve found it to be pretty good in recent years, so I always look to see what is has to say.

The latest run just came out and shows something we already know… El Nino is coming on gangbusters out in the Pacific Ocean. As you know, all El Ninos aren’t created equal. Strength and placement of the warmest waters are the determining factors in the resulting weather across the United States.

This El Nino started this past winter and continues to strengthen and is likely to become strong by late Summer or Fall. Notice how the warmest anomalies get pushes from the South America coast back into the central Pacific…

Analogs

When a moderate to strong El Nino is east based near the South American coast, that spells bad news for winter loves across the country. See the winters of 1997/98 and 1982/83.

When the warm water is centered farther back into the central Pacific, we tend to see much colder and snowier winters across the country.

Now, check out the warm water in the Gulf of Alaska and off the west coast of North America. That’s been there since the fall of 2013 and has, in my eyes, been the catalyst in giving us back to back wild winters. The models all suggest that is STILL there through the rest of the year and upcoming winter. It promotes ridging into Alaska and western Canada, and allows for the jet stream to dip way south into the United States.

Given all that is showing up on the JAMSTEC, here’s what the model suggests for seasonal temps…

Analogs 2

Can we make hit the trifecta of harsh winters ala the late 1970s? Time will tell, but the JAMSTEC certainly thinks so.

Have a great Sunday and take care.

8 Comments

A Warm and Humid Pattern Ahead

Good Saturday, everyone. It’s a gorgeous start to the Memorial Day Weekend with plenty of sunshine and warm temperatures. The warm air will hang tough as higher humidity levels return to the region. The increase in the muggy factor will also lead to scattered showers and storms going up.

Highs today will range from 80-85 across most of the region. Skies will stay mainly sunny with just a few high clouds around.

Moisture returns to the picture for Sunday and Monday and that could lead to some scattered boomers going up. The best chance comes on Memorial Day as our moisture plume moves in from the west. The GFS has a decent increase in storm chances as the day wears on…

GFSTemps ahead of that shot of moisture would be very warm on Sunday, and then drop some for Memorial Day…

GFS Temps

That sets up a very warm and muggy week with additional rounds of some boomers likely.

I talked about looking ahead to fall and winter in my last post, but let’s first look ahead to June. It’s next in line and the CFS is showing the corridor of May rains in the plains moving east…

CFS

We shall see how that works out.

Until then, enjoy your Saturday and take care.

2 Comments

Much Better For Memorial Day Weekend

Good Friday to one and all. We’ve made it to the unofficial kickoff to the summer season and things are looking more and more like, well, summer. Of course, anything is going to feel like summer coming off the chilly past few days.

Thursday’s highs were among some of the coldest late season numbers we’ve had around here in recorded history. That chill continues into the start of today with some upper 30s and low 40s possible.

Things begin to improve this afternoon as temps hit the low 70s in most areas. Some middle 70s will show up in the west and south as skies stay partly sunny.

Saturday’s weather looks great with highs pushing 80 degrees under more in the way of sunshine. Low to mid 80s still look to dominate the rest of the holiday weekend with an increase in humidity and storm chances. The best chance for storms will move in on Memorial Day, but I don’t expect a washout.

That increase in moisture from the southwest then settles into the region as we roll into the middle of the week…

Euro

The pattern for the second half of the week into the following weekend is one that may be showing our summer setup. Notice how far out in the Atlantic Ocean this high sets up….

GFS 2That puts our region in more of a very warm and humid flow that brings the threat for scattered showers and storms.

Since this weekend is the unofficial kickoff to Summer, it makes sense to look ahead to fall and winter! :) I will show you some new seasonal computer model forecasts.

Enjoy your Friday and take care.

8 Comments

A Little Chill Before Steamy Temps Return

Good Thursday, everyone. We have a rather chilly weather day in progress across the bluegrass state. Low clouds, spotty showers and areas of drizzle will combine forces to keep temps well, well below normal. Once we get past today, summer air surges in for the holiday weekend.

Highs today will mainly be in the low and mid 60s, but some upper 50s will be possible. That’s chilly, my friends. Track away…

Skies will break overnight with readings dropping toward the low 40s. The GFS shows some 30s…

GFS TEMPS 1

Afternoon temps will rebound quite nicely with 70-75 likely for much of the state. Upper 70s to low 80s will then show up on Saturday with partly sunny skies.

Scattered storms will try to fire up late Sunday into Memorial Day with a strong flow coming from the Gulf of Mexico…

EuroGFS

 

The pattern for next week continues to look much warmer with several days in the 80s. The warm and more humid air will continue to give us some scattered storm potential. The GFS continues to pain a rather busy pattern across the country over the next few weeks…

 

GFS RainMake it a great day and take care.

6 Comments

A September Feel Rolls On

Good Wednesday, folks. A great brand of air continues to blow across the bluegrass state and this has a few days left in the tank. Changes begin to push in here for Memorial Day Weekend. Those changes will lead to an increase in temps, humidity and storm chances.

Speaking of storm chances, we have a window of opportunity for some scattered stuff late today into tonight. This fast-moving system will zip through here with a  few showers and storms through tonight.

Leftover showers may linger into early Thursday. A mix of sun and clouds  will take over with temps struggling to get out of the 60s for highs.. That should set the stage for another very chilly night. The GFS has some ch-ch-chilly readings by Friday morning…

GFS TEMPS 1

Highs by Friday afternoon should hit 70-75 in most areas with full sunshine.

The Memorial Day Weekend starts with temps in the upper 70s and low 80s for Saturday with mostly sunny skies. The threat for storms will then increase on Sunday and Memorial Day. That trend should carry us past the holiday weekend…

GFS

Memorial Day highs should reach well into the 80s across the bluegrass state. That same setup should bring some serious heat to our south and southeast…

Euro 2You may see that scenario play out a lot this summer! 😉

Have a great day and take care.

3 Comments

Much Cooler Weather Moving In

Good Tuesday to one and all. Cooler air is slowly but surely working into the region and this will give us a taste of September leading up to the holiday weekend. Conditions for Memorial Day Weekend will look and feel a lot different as muggy air and storms return.

The front continues to push across the region today with a big temp gradient setting up. 80 is possible in the far south and southeast with low 70s in the north and northwest. There is still a small shower chance just ahead of the front, but most areas remain dry.

Very cool air filters in here tonight and Wednesday. Check out the low temps being forecast by the Hi-Res NAM…

NAM 2

That’s some serious chilly for this late in May. Last week, I talked about the potential for some upper 30s and low 40s for this week. The models are certainly suggesting this as a possibility on Wednesday morning.

Highs later in the day will range from the upper 60s to low 70s with increasing clouds. A weak wave of low pressure scoots across the region with the threat for scattered showers and storms into Wednesday night…

NAMThursday and Friday will continue with our September feel with upper 60s to low 70s for highs. Low humidity levels will make for some excellent weather.

Memorial Day Weekend is just around the corner and things will turn much warmer. That is likely to come with a stormy price as moisture increases. Check out the increase in storms on the GFS…

GFS

Highs both days will mainly be in the 80-85 degree range with very muggy air in place.

Make it a terrific Tuesday and take care.

2 Comments

Booming Storms Along A Cold Front

Good Monday, folks. We have a strong cold front working into the region today and this should touch off additional showers and storms. A few of the storms could be on the booming side with high winds and hail possible. Once the front blows through… cooler air blows in and takes control of our week in weather.

We will have to watch for the potential of some strong or severe storms trying to pop out there today. The best chance may wind up being in the north and northeast. I will have your tracking toys in a bit.

This front won’t move through until Tuesday and that means temps should still be a little warm with upper 70s to around 80 for many. Isolated showers and storms may linger across the east. Our boundary only slowly pushes to our south as cooler air sweeps in. The NAM has some downright chilly temps by Wednesday morning…

NAM

I mentioned the cold front being a slow mover. That slow push allows for a wave of low pressure to develop along it to our west and southwest. That system rolls eastward Wednesday afternoon and evening with an increase in clouds and scattered showers and some thunder. Here’s the future radar from the NAM:

NAM 2That system will weaken as it moves through our region, but some showers could linger into Thursday morning.

This is a cool air mass coming for the middle and later part of the week. Upper 60s to low 70s may be as good as it gets for highs during this time.

Warmer air moves back in as we roll into Memorial Day Weekend. Saturday looks like the best weather day with readings in the upper 70s to near 80 with partly sunny skies. A developing storm across the plains suggests things turn active by Sunday and Memorial Day…

GFS

Let’s track the storms in the short term…

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

Make it a great Monday and take care.

2 Comments