Author Archives: Chris Bailey

Time posted: 7:02 pm

Thoughts On The Pattern Ahead

Good evening, folks. It’s another cold, dreary November day wrapping up across the bluegrass state. As we inch closer to Thanksgiving, we will be seeing much better weather rolling in for holiday travelers. Once past the big day, this very active pattern ramps back up, with winter weather chances increasing.

There could still be a leftover sprinkle or snow flurry before the evening is finished. Not much of that will show up on regional radar so don’t stress your eyes trying to find them…

Wednesday and Thanksgiving continue to look dry with a healthy temperature spread from northeast to southwest, with areas in the northeast being much chillier.

Black Friday starts off in good shape, but rain sweeps in late in the day into Friday night. That system lingers into Saturday…

The system behind that is likely a big wind maker from Sunday through Tuesday. Rain is likely along and ahead of this system, with a switch to a mix of rain and snow then a few snow showers…

I’m still watching the setup behind that for the end of next week. That’s a setup that has been throwing a winter storm signal out from time to time. The late day GFS picked up on that possibility…

The pattern closing November and beginning December has a cold and wintry look to it. The European Ensembles show a major block across the Arctic and that forces a split in the polar vortex. One piece of that goes to the other side of the globe, with another piece heading into Canada…

That could lead to a direct discharge of arctic air into the eastern half of the country for early December…

Make it a great evening and take care.

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Time posted: 2:29 am

Thanksgiving Weather & A Return To Winter

Good Tuesday, folks. We are just one day away from the infamous Planes, Trains and Automobile post and that can only mean one thing… Thanksgiving is near. While the weather looks pretty good for the big day, the active pattern returns this weekend with a winter look setting in next week.

Speaking of winter, there’s a touch of winter possible today. Scattered rain and snow showers are dotting the skyline across parts of central and eastern Kentucky today…

Highs today are generally in the upper 30s to low 40s.

Wednesday is the busiest travel day of the year and the weather looks pretty good. Temps will be seasonally chilly with a few clouds increasing across the central and east. Those clouds are ahead of a front dropping into eastern Kentucky from the northeast. That brings a little more chill in these areas for Thanksgiving, with milder air in the far west. Check out the highs on the NAM…

The core of hat arctic air is across the northeastern part of the country and will impact the Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade. Look at those wind chills to start…

Yowza!!

Our next system blows in very quickly by Black Friday afternoon and evening. Rain will increase from west to east and continue into the first half of Saturday…

Once that moves away, we focus on yet another storm system moving into the region by late Sunday and Monday. The models vary with how to handle this system, but do show quite a bit of wind, rain and then some snow. The GFS decided to turn this storm into a biggie..

The European Model isn’t nearly as strong, but also shows a similar scenario with a wrap around light snow maker following it up…

As that trough gets established behind the exiting storm… Watch the end of next week for another storm to develop and threaten us with wintry weather.

The final winter forecast from the Jamstec matches up well with the pattern unfolding next week into early December. This has a lot of cold across the country with above normal precipitation in our region…

This winter has the potential to be a heavyweight for a lot of the country!

I will have more updates later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 7:26 pm

Monday Evening Thoughts

Good evening, folks. A couple of cold fronts are moving into the region, bringing chilly showers and the possibility of a few flakes. All of these clears out in time for the busy start of the Thanksgiving travel period, but a couple of systems will likely impact the traditional weekend. Those likely unleash a fairy active winter pattern

That first front moving through here this evening is much slower than I thought. That meant milder air was able to hang on across the south and east, but that’s being wiped out. Gusty showers and drizzle carry us through the evening…

Colder winds blow later tonight as another weak cold front drops in. This will spit out a rain or snow shower into Tuesday with readings in the upper 30s to low 40s. The Hi Res NAM continues to be the most enthusiastic with the flake chance…

The weather behind that looks really good for Wednesday into Thanksgiving. Seasonally chilly temps will be noted, but your sky is dry.

Rain moves in late Black Friday and takes us into the first part of Saturday. Locally heavy downpours will be possible.

Another storm system quickly moves in late Sunday into Monday. This has the chance to bring rain and/or snow into our region…

Canadian

GFS

The setup next week into early December features a lot of blocking over the top and could mean a lot of cold and winter storm potential. This pattern has a lot of potential…

The GFS Ensembles have a fairly snowy look through next week…

Enjoy your evening and take care.

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Time posted: 1:50 am

A Damp Monday Starts Thanksgiving Week

Good Monday, everybody. Thanksgiving week is here and it’s starting out on kind of a damp and dreary note across our part of the world. Better weather does roll in as we start the long holiday weekend, but another wet weather maker moves in to end it. That will be followed by more of a winter look for the final week of November.

It’s not a constant rain falling today, but you don’t want to be too far away from the umbrellas. Track away…

Highs today are mainly in the 40s as a seasonally cold air mass blows in behind our front. Northwesterly  winds will really gust up tonight into Tuesday as temps continue to fall. Highs are generally in the 30s.  That same northwest wind will have some moisture with it  and that means we will be on guard for snow flurries or a couple of snow showers.

The flakes are showing up on the various models…

HI Res NAM

GFS

Seasonally chilly temps and dry weather is in store for the big travel day Wednesday into Thanksgiving Day.

Our Black Friday starts dry but ends with rain on the increase. That rainy action is ahead of another storm system and will stay with us into Saturday…

The pattern after that system continues to trend strongly toward a winter look for the final week of the month. There is a good chance for a fairly robust storm system during this time, but we are a ways away from knowing exactly what that means for our weather. The models are impressed with this possibility…

As I was saying in updates last week, the pattern for the end of the month into December has the look of throwing additional early season winter storms our way.

Updates later today. Until then, enjoy your Monday and take care.

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Time posted: 4:52 pm

Thoughts To Wrap Up The Weekend

Good evening, folks. Clouds continue to thicken as a cold front rolls into the region from the northwest. This brings rain to kick off the Thanksgiving week, with a few flakes likely to fly right behind this front. This continues to be part of an overall pattern that is STRONGLY skewing colder.

I have a lot to talk about, so let’s get busy!

A shower or two will try to show up this evening in the north and west. Here’s your regional radar to find the drops…

A chilly rain then moves in overnight and Monday as our front enters the state. Monday just looks like a damp and dreary day across our region.

Colder northwest winds then kick in behind this for Tuesday. Northwesterly winds in the wintertime tend to produce clouds and light precipitation across our region. That light precipitation may very well be in the form of flurries and light snow showers.

The models are even trying to spit out a rooftop coating in a few spots…

Hi Res NAM

GFS

Highs on Tuesday stay in the 30s, but a wind chill may stay in the 20s for many.

Wednesday looks good for travelers as temps bounce back into the upper 40s to low 50s. A big blast of arctic air heads toward the northeastern part of the country late Wednesday into Thanksgiving Day. This will make for an absolutely frigid Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade in NYC. For us, we get a glancing blow of the cold.

Highs on Thanksgiving Day may struggle to 40 in the northeastern Ky to the 50s west…

Temps look cold for Black Friday shoppers hitting the stores late on Thanksgiving evening. Readings may be in the upper 20s and low 30s by this time…

Clouds will quickly increase on Friday as rain rolls in late in the day. That’s from a storm system moving in, bringing another soaker into Saturday…

The nest system coming behind that later Monday and Tuesday is likely to unleash more winter weather behind it…

It’s a loaded winter pattern for the end of November into December. Buckle up, kiddos.

Enjoy the rest of your day and take care.

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