Author Archives: Chris Bailey

Time posted: 1:10 am

Big Changes On The Way

Good Tuesday to one and all. Our steamy temperature pattern rolls on for a few more days, then some changes settle into our part of the world. Those changes will mean some much cooler temperatures for the first full week of June.

Today looks to be a mainly dry day out there, but I can’t totally rule out isolated storms going up. Highs will be in the middle to upper 80s for many.

Moisture increases late Wednesday with the threat for scattered showers and storms during the afternoon and evening. Can temps make a run at 90 before this happens?

The stormy action will then increase Thursday into Friday as a cold front slows down across the region…

Euro

As our trough deepens across the Ohio Valley, we may see a bigger storm system taking shape for the weekend into Monday…

GFS 2

That looks a lot like a wintertime setup (I’ve said that a lot over the past month) . Of course, that’s what you get when you see this kind of buckle in the jet stream…

GFS

That is a much cooler than normal temperature setup that will likely carry us through next week.

Make it a great Tuesday and take care.

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Time posted: 1:42 am

Memorial Day Musings

Good Monday to one and all. On this Memorial Day, let’s not forget what the day is really about… remembering those we lost protecting this great country. From a weather perspective, this holiday is a toasty one across Kentucky. We will break down where we go from here, and I’ve got some long range goodies to share with you.

Highs today will be in the muggy 80s with the potential for a scattered storm or two. Easy enough.

Temps over the next few days may edge up just a bit as storm chances come down some. Wednesday may give us our best shot at 90 degrees before changes move in.

Those changes start later Thursday into Friday as a cold front brings an increase in showers and thunderstorms. Cooler air follows for the weekend with the chance for a shower or storm lingering. This happens as a deeper trough digs in across the eastern part of the country. The models are all pretty gung-ho on this thing. Check out the GFS Ensembles a week from now…

GFS 3

The European Model for the first three days of next week…

Euro

You don’t see too many model runs with the 540 thickness line into the Country in June, but the European has it in the Great Lakes…

Euro 2

That’s crazy to see.

This is also a pattern that can get some additional early season tropical systems to go up in the eastern Gulf and Caribbean.

Looking much farther down the road, the latest CFS seasonal run for Summer temps…

CFS

I can’t really argue too much with that, as I expect temps to be near normal when all is said and done. This should include a couple decent hot spells around here. That may especially be the case late in summer as things turn drier.

That same CFS run for the transition from fall into winter…

CFS 2

My very early thoughts on this winter is, I think we go opposite of the last several winters with a much faster start and milder second half. Of course, that’s my view from Memorial Day. 😉

Make it a great one and take care.

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Time posted: 3:05 am

More Of The Same Into Memorial Day

Good Sunday to one and all. Steamy and, sometimes, stormy weather rolls on across the bluegrass state of Kentucky. This pattern has been locked in for the past several days, and has several more days left in the tank before changes work our way. These are some fairly big changes starting late next week.

Highs today are back into the muggy 80s with… Wait for it… Wait for it… scattered showers and thunderstorms blowing up.

Rinse and repeat for Memorial Day.

As mentioned, this setup carries us into the middle of next week. I’m still looking for a 90 degree temperature to show up. I have seen some 89s of late on the Mesonet.

A cold front approaches the region from the west later Thursday into Friday with an increase in showers and thunderstorms. Much cooler air comes in behind this front, with the potential for a cutoff system to setup over our region by next weekend…

GFS

The GFS goes cutoff crazy with another system digging in behind that one a few days later…

GFS 2

And then a few days later comes another one…

GFS 3

If things work out like that, ugly weather would reign supreme with cooler than normal temps and the possibility of frequent rains. Hmmm… that sounds a lot like the past month of weather around here.

Make it a great Sunday and take care.

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Time posted: 1:02 am

Changes Show Up Next Week

Good Saturday, everyone. We have a very tropical Memorial Day weekend underway with toasty temps and high humidity levels. This combo will continue to lead to scattered thunderstorms ruining a few outdoor plans. The overall pattern hangs tough into much of next week, but BIG changes are lurking by next weekend.

I really don’t have anything to add about the weather out there today, or for the next several days. You know the drill…

A strong cold front approaches the state by the end of the week, and should bring a potent line of storms to the area…

Euro

The air coming in behind that is waaaaayyy below normal for much of the country…

Euro 3

Highs next weekend may be downright cool for early June…

Euro 2

The cooler than normal setup may carry us, for the most part, into the middle of June. I’m trying to figure out where this pattern goes from there, because I do think this summer will feature some true heat before all is said and done. That’s likely to come late in summer.

Enjoy your day and take care.

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Time posted: 1:07 am

Looking Toward Early June

Good Friday, everyone. Memorial Day weekend is the unofficial kickoff to summer, and it looks like mother nature got the message. We have a lot of steam and storms rumbling over the next several days, but the pattern looks to turn much cooler as we get into the first week of June.

Warm and muggy air will continue out there today with highs generally in the 80s. This soupy air can give us additional rounds of strong storms that put down enough rain to cause local high water issues…

This same setup will carry us through the Memorial Day weekend, and likely into the first couple of days of June.

From this point, we start to see things changing in a big way. The jet stream starts to buckle with a deep dip showing up across the eastern part of the country…

GFS TEMPS 2

Check out how much cooler than normal the ensembles are…

GFS TEMPS 1

And rainfall for the next couple of weeks continues to be very expansive…

GFS 2

Make it a great day and take care.

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