Author Archives: Chris Bailey

Milder Weather Set To Push Back In

Good Saturday to one and all. The final weekend of March has definitely started with a taste of winter weather. Snow showers and flurries ushered in some very cold air that hangs around through Sunday morning. From there, temps slowly moderate as we close March and say hello to April. But, does that mean we are out of the winter woods? Hmm.

Partly sunny skies will be around today with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. We’re back into the 20s for Sunday morning, but a gusty wind will spike our temps into the 50s by the afternoon. Clouds will increase as some showers move in later in the evening…

Euro

Those showers will zip through here quickly into Monday morning with better weather showing up by the afternoon hours.

Temps will then take off for Tuesday and Wednesday as readings push well into the 60s. 70 will be possible if we can get mainly sunny skies.

A weak system works in from the south to north on Thursday and could bring a few showers and thunderstorms our way…

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Temps by Friday may surge well into the 70s on a strong southwesterly wind. That wind is likely ahead of a powerful storm system working across the Ohio Valley to start Easter Weekend…

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Depending on how that plays out, some strong storms would be possible around here. Much colder air would then crash in here for Saturday and Easter Sunday.

The back and forth, busy pattern would then carry us into the following week. You know the drill… temps turn milder then may come crashing back down behind another system…

GFSThe more things change… ;)

Enjoy your Saturday and take care.

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Active Pattern Shows No Signs Of Ending

Good Friday, folks. A taste of winter has returned to the bluegrass state with a fresh blast of very cold air and even the potential for a few snowflakes. This continues to be part of a supercharged weather pattern that shows little signs of going away anytime soon.

Highs today will reach the upper 30s and low 40s with gusty winds and a mix of sun and clouds. The south and west will be a little “warmer” with middle 40s. A weak disturbance will cross the area and could produce a rain or snow shower through the evening. Track whatever shows up…

Saturday morning starts with upper teens and low 20s with a partly cloudy sky. The afternoon will look good, but won’t feel that nice with highs only upper 30s and low 40s, again.

Sunday looks better with highs reaching the 50s on a very gusty wind. Clouds will increase and some showers may develop Sunday night and carry us into Monday…

Euro

Temps will be on the chilly side with those Monday showers.

Tuesday into Wednesday will find temps on the increase and could reach the 60s and could even flirt with 70 at some point. That’s ahead of another cold front that pushes in by Thursday with another chance for rain…

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Temps after that may really take off with some 70s by the end of the week. That big surge of warmth is ahead of an increasing for a big storm to roll across the Ohio Valley over Easter Weekend. Here’s the European Model…

Euro 3

The GFS is even stronger with that storm…

GFSThis is a very healthy signal for a major area of low pressure. Depending on the track of that storm… severe weather could be a possibility. Keep an eye on it.

Enjoy your day and take care.

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Tracking Huge Changes

Good Thursday to one and all. A powerhouse of a cold front is sweeping across the bluegrass state today and this will bring some big time changes. We’re packing springtime and wintertime temps all into a matter of hours. Sandwiched in between will be some gusty showers and rumbles of thunder.

Temps will start the day well into the 60s across the eastern half of the state with a 70 possible. Those numbers crash through the 40s by late this afternoon as winds continue to crank up. Gusts today may reach 35-40mph as the front moves in.

The cold really settles in tonight and Friday with the chance for a few snowflakes showing up. Highs on Friday will range from the mid 40s in the south and west to around 40 in the north and northeast. That air grows even colder by Saturday with upper teens and low 20s for some. Highs will struggle into the upper 30s and low 40s.

Sunday looks windy with some 50s showing back up ahead of another cold front. That brings some showers and chillier air for Monday.

The weather next week should slowly moderate and we could be near 70 by the middle of the week. That should come with a price with showers and storms increasing shortly thereafter. This busy pattern will then carry us into Easter Weekend with the models suggesting another storm system followed by a cold shot of air…

EuroUgh!

I have you all set to track today’s weather…

 

 

Make it a great Thursday and take care.

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Severe Weather Risk Western Kentucky

Good afternoon, gang. A warm and windy spring day is in progress across the commonwealth of Kentucky. That’s a good thing for many of us looking to shake off the nasty conditions of the past few days. For western parts of the state, this isn’t necessarily a good thing because it may fire up some strong or severe storms.

The best chance for storms to crank will be during the evening and overnight hours. A few storms may go severe in the west with damaging winds and large hail the primary threats. The Storm Prediction Center has places this region in a slight risk for severe weather.

Track away…

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

I will have updates as needed. Take care.

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A Wild Setup Continues

Good Wednesday, folks. The weather over the past few months has been nothing short of wild and the overall wild setup looks to continue. A HUGE temperature swing is on the way as our readings go from Sprint to Winter in a matter of hours. Oh, and there’s this snowflake thing we have to watch out for.

Warmer air continues to spread in today and that could produce a shower or thunderstorm. Winds will gust up as temps make a run toward 70 or a little better.

There’s the possibility of a few stronger storms develop across the far west, but much of the severe weather threat looks to be just to our west.

Showers and thunderstorms become widespread on Thursday. Can we get some strong storms out of this? That’s possible if the front is a little slower in slamming in here. The temperature gradient along this front is pretty darn incredible…

Euro

Now THAT is what I call a cold front! Some of the models are a little more enthusiastic about the chances for more precipitation falling behind the front in the colder air. Temps by Thursday evening look to drop into the 30s and the NAM suggests some snow possible during that time…

NAM

As cold air continues to filter in on Friday, another streak of light snow will target our region. The models vary on where it goes, but the GFS is highlighting parts of central and eastern Kentucky…

GFS 2

The cold behind that for Saturday is looking a little colder as we get closer. Saturday morning lows will likely drop into the upper teens…

GFS TEMPS 2Afternoon highs may not get out of the upper 30s for some areas. Sigh.

The weather for next week will gradually turn milder, but will likely come with some rounds of showers and thunderstorms. The 2 week rainfall forecast from the GFS says to get used to that…

GFS

Enjoy your day and take care.

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Tracking The Upcoming Changes

Good Tuesday, everyone. Big changes are in the works for the rest of the week as a strong cold front blasts into the region. Conditions ahead of this will continue to bring some spring to the region. Conditions behind this look more like wintertime.

A warm front is working across the region today and bringing another heck of a temperature gradient with it. Readings across the north may not get out of the 40s as areas of the south and west surge well into the 60s. A few showers will also be possible…

A shower or thunderstorm will be possible on Wednesday as temps make a run toward 70 degrees. Winds will become very gusty as our cold front gets closer to the area. That front swings through here on Thursday with showers and some thunderstorms. This could bring some decent rains our way…

Euro 3

The temperature drop behind that front is pretty darn impressive…

GFS TEMPS 1

The NAM is trying its very best to produce a band of light snow Thursday evening with another wave of low pressure along the front…

NAMThat would certainly make for some interesting hours if it were to verify.

The air grows even colder Friday into Saturday when some snowflakes try to join the party. Highs both days should range from the upper 30s to low 40s. Lows by Saturday morning look frigid for the end of March…

GFS TEMPS 2

The models vary on the arrival of the next clipper for Monday. I’m firmly pulling for the European Model because it takes the bulk of the action and cold just to our north…

Euro

That would allow for a quick warm up behind that by the middle of next week…

Euro 2Yes, please!!

Make it a great day and take care.

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Old Man Winter Fights Back

Good Monday, folks. The week is starting out tame enough with some typical March weather across the bluegrass state. Of course, typical weather in March means a lot of change. That’s exactly what’s setting up later in the week as Winter fights back into our region.

In the short term, we find quite the temperature gradient from north to south across the state today. Highs in the far north may struggle to get to 50 while the south and west sees readings back into the 60s.

A warm front lifts northward across the state late Tuesday and early Wednesday. That should be able to touch off some scattered showers and a rumble of thunder. Tuesday’s temps may be held way down across the northern half of the state. Flakes may even fly just to our north!

Wednesday finds warmer air surging in ahead of our cold front that arrives on Thursday. That front will have a wave of low pressure developing along it as it presses eastward into our region…

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Check out the temperature difference from ahead of the front on Wednesday to right along and behind it for Thursday…

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Temps will drop quickly into the 40s behind the front later Thursday with below freezing numbers showing up on Friday morning as cold air continues to push in.

There’s a decent piece of energy that looks to rotate across the base of our trough late Friday into Saturday…

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We will have to watch that to see if it can blow up a bigger storm than the models currently advertise. As is, the European Model does like the chances for some light snow with it…

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Highs on the final Saturday of the month may be more than 20 degrees colder than normal…

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Weekend lows have a shot at hitting the teens in some areas! The cold air hangs around into Sunday with a brief spike moving in early next week. That will soon be replaced by another cold shot as a clipper dives into the Ohio Valley. That’s right, a clipper may usher in the month of April. :(

I will update things later today. Make it a great Monday and take care.

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Spring and Winter Battle For The Week

Good Sunday to one and all. We’re ready to put the wraps on a gorgeous spring weekend here in the bluegrass state. Enjoy the calm, because the pattern is getting ready to crank it up a notch in the week ahead. Spring and Winter are getting ready to slug it out!

Highs today will be cooler than what we had on Saturday. Highs across the north may only reach the mid and upper 50s with the south and west 60-65 degrees.

A backdoor cold front as put the breaks on across the region and will slowly lift back to the north over the next few days. That means some pretty big temperature gradients are likely to set up in our region…

Euro

A few showers or thunderstorms will be possible along and just to the north of that warm front. That’s on the leading edge of a shot of pretty toasty air surging in on Wednesday. Many areas should hit 70 on a gusty southwesterly wind. That’s all ahead of a very strong cold front moving in on Thursday with a line of showers and thunderstorms…

GFS

Our front is being pushed by a blast of very cold temperatures moving in for the end of the week into the weekend. Many of the models continue to suggest the potential for some snowflakes by Friday. The GFS…

GFS 2

A recent run of the Canadian Model went crazy with the snow chances…

Canadian

That’s way to the extreme side of things… I think. :) Regardless… we have a decent shot at seeing some snowflakes late next week and perhaps again the week after.

It’s a nice battle between Spring and Winter taking shape over the next few weeks and that means a very active pattern. It’s a pattern that should lead us into a late arriving, but rather robust, severe weather season around here.

Enjoy your day and take care.

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Big Changes Next Week

Good Saturday, everyone. We have gorgeous weather rolling in for the first weekend of Spring. Temps are set to take off as some sunshine returns for the next couple of days. While that’s great news and all, the longer range continues to look flat out ugly for the closing days of March and the early days of April.

Skies become partly sunny as the day wears on and that allows for temps to warm well into the 60s. Sunday won’t be as nice, but will still be pretty darn good. Highs in the south and west will be back into the 60s with some 50s creeping back into the north.

Those 50s look take over on Monday as a backdoor front slides in. That front will lift back to the north as a warm front on Tuesday and could produce a shower or thunderstorm as it introduces much milder air for Wednesday. Highs may spike toward 70 on a gusty southwesterly wind.

This is when the changes really show up. A powerful cold front will drop into the state with an increase in showers and Thunderstorms Wednesday night and Thursday. That front still has a wintry look behind it…

GFSThe GFS follows that up with another big dip in the jet stream…

GFS 2The European Ensembles for that same time looks like something out of the heart of winter…

Euro 2You likely have not seen your last snowflakes. Ugh!

Enjoy your day and take care.

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Up and Down Pattern Continues

Good Friday to one and all. March is famous for the up and down temperature pattern and that pattern is really kicking it up a notch in the days ahead. It’s never an easy path to Spring here in Kentucky, and this setup means we have a lot of time to go before we can proclaim true springtime.

A few showers will linger through our Friday morning with some late day clearing possible. Areas that see the skies clean up will see readings surging well into the 50s.

If you’re looking for a winner of a weather day, Saturday looks to play the part with sunshine and mild air. The mild will get split a bit on Sunday as a backdoor cold front drops into town…

Euro

Monday will see a similar temperature setup to what we see on Sunday with areas north and east seeing colder numbers.

A powerhouse of a cold front will then dive in here by late Wednesday and Thursday with a line of showers and thunderstorms possible…

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Temps ahead of that front should hit the 70s…

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That’s the “Up” part of the week. The “Down” part comes in behind the front for the end of the week as much colder air returns. Some of the models are even showing the possibility of a winter look. Here’s the GFS…

GFS

I will take a big helping of NO with that! :)

Have a great Friday and take care.

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