Author Archives: Chris Bailey

The Pattern Turns Active Next Week

Good Tuesday, everyone. Fall is at its absolute finest this week as gorgeous weather continues throughout Kentucky and much of the region. While the weather is nice now, I’m focusing on the potential for a active pattern getting started.

The weather forecast for the rest of the week into the start of the weekend is simple. It’s nice with mild afternoons and crisp mornings.

The transition to the active pattern looks to begin late this weekend or early next week as we watch for a Gulf system. The models continue to show something developing there (tropical or not) and then working northward toward our region. They just differ from run to run on where and when.

European Model Euro

GFS Model

GFS

We will have to wait and see what happens with this system, but some tropical rains are possible into early next week.

Things continue to amp up by the middle and end of next week as October looks to start with some big systems swinging across the country. Check out the European Model forecast…

Euro 2

That’s a big drip in the jet stream that leads to a classic fall cold front sweeping in from the west…

Euro 3

The GFS has a similar look, but is a little slower…

GFS

With that active pattern ramping up, it could lead to another period of fairly wet weather around here. It could also unleash some cold shots of air.

Make it a great day and take care.

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Chilly Air Blows In

Good Monday, everyone. The last full week of September is off and running on a very chilly note across the bluegrass state and surrounding states. This latest blast of chill may send overnight lows to the coldest levels we’ve seen, so far.

Thermometers this morning will likely start well into the 40s into parts of northern and central Kentucky.

Today’s Lows

A mix of sun and clouds will keep thermometers only in the 60s for highs. Gusty winds will add a bit of a nip to the air in shaded areas.

Current Temperatures

If we can get the winds to calm down tonight, temps will drop close to 40 degrees in some areas. The models have been advertising this for a while…

Hi-Res NAM

NAM 2  NAMNAM

Tuesday highs will be in the mid and upper 60s east to low 70s in the west.

The pattern for the middle and end of the week will feature high pressure to our northeast and a low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast. That gives us an easterly to northeasterly flow…

Special 2Pleasant temps in the 70s with nighttime lows in the upper 40s and low 50s should be common during this time. With the placement of the high, it sends the warmest air well to our west and north.

That high will eventually work a little more to the east by the weekend. This will cause our flow to become more southerly and that’s when we have to watch for moisture to work back in. The models continue to point toward some kind of system developing in the Gulf. The GFS brings a healthy slug of rain our way…

GFS 2The European Model suggests a stronger system that tracks up the Appalachian Mountains…

EuroThat’s something to watch for and my 1979 analog year is cheering it on.

Have a great day and take care.

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Chilly Air Pushing Back In

Good Sunday, folks. Our weekend is wrapping up with a strong cold front pushing across the Commonwealth of Kentucky. This is a windy front with a scattering of showers and thunderstorms ahead of it and another shot of chilly air behind it.

Today will not be a washout as the showers and storms will be scattered about the region. Winds will be very gusty and could top 35-40mph at times.

Current Temperatures

Temps will drop very quickly as the front passes this from northwest to southeast this evening. That will set the stage for temps to take a big tumble tonight and into Monday morning. A sprawling high pressure from Canada is the culprit…

NAM 3 Readings will drop toward the low and mid 40s in a few spots by early Monday. Tuesday continues to look like the coldest morning on the GFS…

GFS 2   The NAM has similar temps to start Tuesday…

NAM 2

Highs on Monday could be very cool across central and eastern Kentucky. A few clouds may develop during the day and that acts to keep the numbers down. The Hi-Res NAM shows what I’m talking about…

NAMLooking toward the middle and end of next week, the weather looks great. Near normal temps and mainly dry skies look to rule our region.

I’m still watching the Gulf of Mexico and the models keep stringing me along. The European Model shows something in just over a week…

EuroEnjoy your Sunday and take care.

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Tracking Another Strong Cold Front

Good Saturday, folks. Another big time cold front is on the move toward the bluegrass state and will put an end to the nice run of fall weather we’ve been having. Don’t sweat it too much because another nice run of fall weather gets started early next week.

Highs today will be flirting with 80 degrees across much of the state. Winds will pick up a bit with a mix of sun and clouds. There is the smallest chance for a popcorn shower going up, but most areas will stay dry.

Current Temperatures

A strong cold front moves in on Sunday with a broken band of showers and thunderstorms. Here’s the simulated radar from the NAM for early in the afternoon…

NAM

This won’t be a washout of a day, but umbrellas should come in handy at some point during the day. Winds will also be super gusty and could reach 30mph at times.

Much cooler air pushes in behind the front for early next week. Highs for Monday will be down in the mid and upper 60s with lows from reaching the 40s. It looks like Tuesday morning will be the coldest…

NAM

NAM GFS

GFS

From there, the weather pattern looks an awful lot like what we’ve been seeing this week. I don’t think too many of you will complain about that. Oh wait… ;)

Make it a great day and take care.

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Half and Half Weather Weekend

Good Friday to one and all. We’ve mad it to the start of the weekend and it looks like mother nature is going to throw us one very nice day and one not so nice day. After the run we’ve had… who cares. This has been flat out awesome.

Today features a partly sunny sky with highs in the middle 70s for many areas. I will be watching southeastern Kentucky for the chance for isolated late day and evening showers going up. It’s a small chance, but a chance nonetheless.

Saturday looks even milder with highs in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. Winds will gust up a bit as clouds roll in during the afternoon and evening. Those clouds are ahead of a cold front that pushes in on Sunday with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. This is NOT going to be a washout of a day!

Cooler winds will below behind this front with temps heading back into the below normal range early next week…

GFS 2

Just how cool things can get remains to be seen, but a few days in the 60s for highs will be a good bet into the first half of the week.

As you know, I’ve been watching the Gulf of Mexico for the past week or so and talking about the need to keep watching it into late September and early October. The models have been throwing us a lot of head fakes in developing a tropical system down there. The GFS is doing it again…

GFS 3

Why have I been watching this region so closely? Because 1979 is one of the better matches for the pattern we’ve been in for the past few months and it produced a storm that impacted our weather…

Hurricane FredericI’m am NOT saying something like that is going to happen… it’s just one of those interesting things I like to watch for. 1979 was also a very slow Atlantic hurricane season similar to the one we have going on now.

That said… 1979 is slipping a little bit on my analog list as a few other years are trying to jump over it.

Have a great day and take care.

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Random Weather Thoughts

Good Thursday, everyone. The weather is so nice that your friendly weatherdude is having a hard time staying focused. So, this update is likely to have a whole lot of randomness to it. Let’s call it free styling! :)

The weather in the short term continues to about as nice as it gets with upper 60s to low 70s out there today under a mostly sunny sky. The weekend starts with low and mid 70s for Friday with mid and upper 70s to near 80 on Saturday. Winds will gust up with a cold front arriving on Sunday. That leads to scattered showers and thunderstorms going up.

The air behind this continues to look chilly for next week. The GFS Ensemble Mean shows the temperature anomalies in Celsius for the 5 day period…

GFS 2

How cold that air actually gets around here still depends a lot on what happens with the leftovers from the Pacific hurricane across the west and plains. Also, keep a close eye on a possible storm developing off the Carolina coast.

Speaking of the GFS Ensembles, check out the “best match years” for our end of September setup…

CPC

2009 takes the top two spots and that’s a year I have been looking at for the winter ahead. You will also find the bitter winters of 1963 and 1969 on that list. There are 4 years on that list I am looking at for the fall and winter ahead of us. Any guesses on which 4? I already gave ya one!

Maybe I should just scrap looking at past years and go with the two main Almanacs forecast…

Farmers Almanac 1 Farmers Almanac 2Hmmm… that would be a lot less stressful and less time consuming for me to do. But, I think I will keep doing my normal thing.

Make it a great day and take care.

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Next Week Looks Even Colder

Good Wednesday, gang. Our run of October air continues across Kentucky and we are pretty much stuck in this pattern. I know, I know… woe is us, right? Things continue to very nice for the rest of the week before heading into a half and half weekend. Beyond that… even colder air appears to be on the way.

Let’s start with today and roll ahead. Highs will range from the upper 60s to low 70s with a mix of sun and clouds. Areas that start with dense fog may take a while to see the sun.

Thursday looks equally as nice with temps in the 40s to start and upper 60s to low 70s to end. It looks like more of the same into Friday as temps come up just a bit. Those numbers will really climb on Saturday with thermometers well into the 70s.

Sunday will find a cold front working our way from the northwest. This front will touch off scattered showers and thunderstorms as the day wears on. Some of that may take us into Monday as much cooler air filters in from the northwest.

A second front may cross the region later Monday into early Tuesday. That one may unleash even colder air into the middle of next week. Many of the models show the potential for sub 40 degree temps during this time. The GFS is downright cold with low temps…

GFS

The core of the cool looks to be centered right on top of us next week…

GFS 3

Highs in the low to mid 60s are likely for a few days. What’s left of Hurricane Odile is going to get entrained into the pattern across the United States this week into next. What happens with the leftovers will need to be watched as it can greatly impact the overall setup across the country.

Looking farther down the road, the models are trying to key on another deep trough by the following weekend…

Euro 2

That may be followed up by another blast to open October. That’s two weeks away, but the GFS is impressed with the cold…

GFS 2Given the overall look to the pattern and the way the models are trending, the possibility of an early season frost is on the table.

The more things change… ;)

Have a great day and take care.

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Tracking More Cool Weather

Good Tuesday, everyone. I said last week that I didn’t think this was a true start to fall here in Kentucky. Mother nature is trying to make a liar out of me (like that would be the first time). Additional shots of chill look to carry us through most of the rest of September.

We do have a cold front on the move across the state today. This is bringing a scattering of showers to the region and is ushering in a reinforcing shot of cool temps. Temps today are going to struggle into the mid and upper 60s for highs into central and eastern Kentucky. Upper 60s to low 70s will be around for the rest of the area.

Current Temperatures

The weather from Wednesday through Friday looks awesome! Highs will range from the upper 60s to low 70s with overnight temps dropping into the 40s. Watch for some foggy mornings.

Saturday looks windy and warmer with temps well into the 70s. Take advantage of that because another cold front arrives Sunday with showers and some thunder. This carries us into Monday as temps take a dive behind the front. The European Model is going crazy with the cold coming in behind this system…

Euro 3That particular model run takes temps into the “crazy below normal” temperature category…

Euro 2I suspect the European Model is overdoing the extent of the cold, but the pattern does favor another run of colder than normal temperatures.

Enjoy your extended fall weather and take care.

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Cool Shots Continue This Week

Good Monday, everyone. A lot of people complain that fall is just too short around this part of the world. Well, mother nature may be trying to lengthen the season this year. We have additional shots of cool air on tap this week. I break those down and take a look at where some things stand as we head deeper into fall and winter.

Today will be the mildest day of the week with temps in the 70s and winds picking up a bit. You will notice some clouds rolling in late in the day from west to east. Those clouds are ahead of a cold front that moves through overnight into early Tuesday. That front can spit out a few showers.

Highs Tuesday will be back in the upper 60s for many areas as cooler winds blow in. That should set the stage for another night of 40s for lows…

NAM The cool air continues to funnel into the region from the north and even northeast. This is when a huge blast of chill moves across the Great Lakes into the northeast…

EuroThose setups can feature sneaky cold that the models don’t really pick up on. Heck, the models were awful with our weekend temps. That’s why I tell young forecasters to stop regurgitation what a model says. Look at actual weather maps and what the weather is doing verses what the models say. End of mini-rant. :)

Temps should rebound some by next weekend as more normal air moves in. There is now some indication of another cool shot coming down the pike early next week.

Let’s talk a little fall and winter.

I keep talking and talking about how the overall weather pattern in North America hasn’t really changed much since last fall. That’s when I started picking up on this big warm pool of water of water off the west coast into the Gulf Of Alaska. That forced a huge ridge of high pressure up the west coast into Alaska.

Guess what? That warm pool is still going strong and is forecast to remain there through the upcoming winter…

SSTThrow in a developing weak El Nino and you have the potential for some serious winter weather across the country again this year.

This is also the time of year I start watching the developing snow pack across the northern hemisphere. It’s still very, very early in that game, but it’s above normal for this time of year. This map shows the areas that usually don’t have snow on the ground right now…

Snow CoverWe will have to wait and see how this progresses through October. That’s the month that really matters in the overall development of the snow pack.

Have a great Monday and take care.

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The cool weather rolls on

Good Sunday, everyone. Our recent blast of October temps will moderate just a bit in the coming days, but the numbers will still be much cooler than normal. The week ahead weather is pretty clear cut, but what happens after that is still a bit fuzzy to me. Let’s get into it.

Readings this morning will likely be the coldest we’ve had since back in the spring. Many areas should wake up to readings in the 40s and a few spots could drop all the way into the lower 40s. That, at least, puts us within shouting distance of a few records. Areas that see clouds will obviously be several degrees higher than those with clear skies.

Today’s Lows

Skies will feature a mix of sun and clouds today with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s…

Current Temperatures

Monday will find a milder wind blowing with thermometers returning to the 70s. Clouds will increase and a shower may develop late in the day from west to east. A better chance for scattered showers arrives Monday night and Tuesday. That’s when another front works across the state…

NAM Temps will come back down behind that front with upper 60s to low 70s for highs a good bet into the middle of the week.

The setup by Thursday should feature a huge shot of cold weather coming into the Great Lakes and northeast. That throws some more cooler air our way and could drop those temps just a tad more. Throw in a developing storm across the southeast and we could get a little windy, too…

EuroThis super cool pattern is likely to give way to a more normal brand of September air late next weekend or into the following week. I don’t think we are done with 80 degree temps, by any means.

That said… I continue to keep a close eye on the Gulf of Mexico. One of my top analog years featured something there in late September and the GFS keeps showing something there in the day 10 time period…

GFSOf course, it IS the GFS! Plus, it’s just a thought I’m throwing out there as having a chance at happening. This has been another quiet tropical year, so that certainly doesn’t bode well for that “chance”.

What about the chances for cold and snow this winter? I plan on talking about that with my next update. ;)

Have a great day and take care.

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