Author Archives: Chris Bailey

Time posted: 2:39 am

Storm Chances Won’t Go Away

Good Monday to one and all. We are rolling our way into the final few days of June, but it feels more like the final few days of September. This awesome air mass will soon give way to another setup that looks rather stormy in our part of the world. Yippee, said no one ever.

Temps today are pretty much awesome, but clouds will move into town later as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Showers and some thunder will increase late tonight into early Tuesday…

Highs Tuesday will generally range from 70-75 degrees for many of us.

Wednesday will see temps rebounding into the upper 70s to some low 80s in the west. That’s still way below normal for this time of year.

This brings us into the end of the week and the increasing threat for showers and storms to come in here from the northwest. Some of these storms may be strong and I’m increasingly concerned about the heavy rain threat. A cold font slides in here late in the weekend and is likely to check up, leading to some additional storm chances through the 4th of July..

The potential is there for quite a bit of water to fall during this time. The Canadian continues to show this well…

Make it a great day and take care.

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Time posted: 1:14 am

A Cool Period Before More Storms

Good Sunday, folks. There is a certain “wow” factor to our weather today and over the next few days. Some very, VERY cool summertime air continues to blow into the bluegrass state. Is this a sign of a summer that’s starting to tilt cooler than normal? Maybe.

We know things are MUCH wetter than normal and I don’t see that changing. Often, wetter summers wind up cooler than normal too. I know it’s a quiet Sunday, but I have put together a blowout post… Just because. 🙂

Today’s forecast is for a 100% chance of awesome.

Monday will see temps in the upper 40s and low 50s for some to start the day with 70s for highs…

An 80 is possible in the west as winds gust up ahead of another old front. That front arrives Monday night with some showers diving in from the northwest…

That kinda looks like a wintertime clipper, don’t ya think?

Temps behind this are even cooler for Tuesday. Check out the highs…

Any night that features clear skies through Wednesday can give us lows trying to get into record territory. But remember… skies have to be clear for that to happen. Highs remain below normal through the end of the week, with near normal air fighting back in.

As that works in here, we have to watch for some storms to go up late Thursday into Friday. This will be ahead of another cold front dropping in here over the weekend…

Some of the models are trying to get a little more robust with the rainfall. Here’s the Canadian Model through next Sunday…

Temps go back to a little below normal as the front checks up just to our south. That may not be a a good look for our 4th of July week, because waves of showers and storms could develop on the front and roll east…

BTW… The post 4th of July setup suggests the Gulf of Mexico will need to be watched again.

Speaking of July, the seasonal model forecasts have a cooler than normal look around here and for much of the country. Here’s the CFS…

If we take the European and ask it to give us the temperature anomalies from today through the first week of August, here’s what it tells us…

There’s your blowout post on a quiet Sunday… I hope you appreciate the effort. 🙂

Make it a good one and take care.

11 Comments

Time posted: 1:45 am

Here Comes The Cool

Good Saturday, everyone. Tropical Depression Cindy caused all kinds of issues across the bluegrass state on Friday. From flooding rains of more than 5″ to down trees and a possible tornado or two, the system did exactly what I thought it would.

Now, it’s time to look ahead toward a VERY cool weather pattern settling in. This may give us record lows into the first half of next week.

The cooler pattern starts today with upper 70s to low 80s with a mix of sun and clouds. Temps drop into the evening and overnight, with readings near 50 by Sunday morning. Highs will be in the middle and upper 70s.

Another weak front drops in from the north on Monday and could spawn a few showers. Temps behind this front are almost as cool as you can get around here for the end of June. Check out the GFS high temp forecast on Monday…

Tuesday morning lows from that same model are pretty amazing to see…

Record lows are a strong possibility if skies are clear. Wow.

Temps will stay below normal into most of next week, with the models trying to tap another cool shot down the road. Watch the temperature anomalies from the GFS through 4th of July week…

That’s cool to see… Literally. 🙂

Make it a great day and take care.

5 Comments

Time posted: 2:06 am

Tracking Possible Flooding and Severe Storms

Good Friday, everyone. It’s a very busy weather day across our region, with the potential for flooding rains and severe thunderstorms. This action is along and ahead of Tropical Depression Cindy, rolling across Kentucky later today into tonight.

If Cindy is still a depression as it moves into Kentucky, this will mark the second time that’s happened in the past three Junes. Bill moved right over us back in 2015. Having that happen once in June is rare, but in 2 of 3 years is pretty much way out there.

Here’s the latest track from the NHC…

cone graphic

Much of the morning hours may be dry with some sun, then things go downhill quickly this afternoon.

Flooding is a big threat along and north of the track, where several inches of rain will fall through tonight. In addition to the flood threat, severe thunderstorms will develop across the central and east this afternoon and early evening. Damaging winds and a couple tornadoes are possible.

All of this mess moves away by Saturday morning, with a VERY cool air mass settling in here this weekend into the middle of next week. Can we get some record lows early next week? That’s possible as temps drop into the 40s…

I will be tracking severe storms and flooding on WKYT-TV as needed during today’s event. I have you all set to track the storms on your own…


Current Watches
Current Watches

Possible Watch Areas
Current MDs

Have a great day and take care.

26 Comments

Time posted: 12:07 pm

Flood and Severe Threat Update

Good Thursday afternoon, gang. The first round of heavy rain has already arrived across Kentucky, with a lot more on the way through Saturday morning. This will lead to the potential for flooding across much of the region. In addition to this, there could be a few spinning severe storms going up Friday afternoon and evening.

Let me start by saying there are NO flood watches anywhere across the state of Kentucky as of this writing. I find that absolutely astounding considering that some areas of that state can get more than 4″ of rain in just over the next 24 hours. The local NWS offices should take collective step back and reevaluate how these decisions are made.

In the near-term has plenty of moderate to heavy rain moving across the region. By midday, a half inch of rain had already fallen across parts of southern Kentucky. The short range HRRR model shows some pretty hefty totals through this evening…

A corridor of torrential rain will then focus on areas of western, central and northern Kentucky overnight into early Friday. I’m not sure exactly where that sets up, but flooding will be very possible underneath it.

Things will really get wild during the afternoon and evening Friday, as the remnants of Cindy arrive in Kentucky. This will pack flooding rains and some severe storms as it works through. The models are now honing in on a corridor of heavy rains along and north of the track, right across the heart of Kentucky. That corridor can drop 2″-4″ of rain by itself.

Winds will be rather gusty tomorrow with this tropical entity moving through here. Now, we are also going to have to watch for severe storms developing ahead of what’s left of Cindy. There is some indication that parts of central and eastern Kentucky can get in on a touch of sun ahead of this on Friday. If so, that would aid in the development of severe storms with damaging winds and a few tornadoes.

The Storm Prediction Center has parts of the area in the slight risk…

Once we get rid of all this… it is going to get VERY COOL. Upper 40s for lows early next week?

I leave you with your radars…

I will have the latest on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm. Enjoy your day and take care.

9 Comments