Author Archives: Chris Bailey

Time posted: 1:58 am

Heavy Rain Is Back In The Bluegrass

Good Thursday, everybody. Rounds of heavy rain continue to take aim at the bluegrass state today, and this may cause some local high water issues. We will track that, a big storm system lurking for the weekend, and winter weather on the way later next week.

Today’s rain will increase from southwest to northeast through this evening. The central and western parts of the state will see the most rain through Friday morning with a general 1″-2″. We have a saturated ground and our waterways are running high, so some local high water issues may develop.

The main shield of rain moves away pretty quickly on Friday, but leftover showers may remain. Temps will then take off with a mix of sun and clouds. Readings by Friday afternoon can reach deeeeep into the 60s and do so again on Saturday. Winds will crank from the southwest during this time.

That’s when all the focus turns to a big storm system rumbling into our region. This has been a well advertised cutoff low and has been yapped about on here for more than a week. Scattered showers and a rumble of thunder will be possible ahead of this system on Saturday.

As the storm comes together and passes west to east just to our south, it can bring very gusty winds to go along with rounds of showers and thunderstorms from Saturday night through early Monday.

Exactly where that low tracks will be the determining factor on whether or not it gives us enough rain to cause problems. The NAM goes out to Sunday morning and has the low in a position to raise high water concerns…

NAM

The GFS is just a smidge farther south…

GFS 4

The Canadian Model is similar to the NAM, but more disjointed with the low pressure…

Canadian

Winter returns later next week as a much colder pattern settles in. This has been well advertised for a long time and the numbers will keep growing colder for the final week of the month. You can see the 5 day average deviations showing the heart of the cold on top of us…

GFS Temps

Snow chances will accompany these cold shots as we head into another back loaded winter.

I will have updates later today. Enjoy your Thursday and take care.

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Time posted: 7:27 pm

Wednesday Evening Update

Good evening, everyone. We have another big rain event rolling toward the state Thursday into Thursday night. This is the first of two big systems I’m tracking over the next several days that can put down a lot of water in our region. After we get through all of this, here comes the back loaded winter.

I have zero changes on the heavy rain and high water potential for Thursday into Friday morning. Much of central and western Kentucky will get another 1″-2″ of rain that can cause some flooding problems.

Very mild air then surges in here later Friday into Saturday as highs soar into the 60s. This will be ahead of a massive storm system working from west to east across the region later this weekend.

Scattered showers and a thunderstorm will try to develop ahead of this on Saturday…

GFS 2

The new GFS takes this storm directly east across the Tennessee Valley, putting rotating heavy rain bands across Kentucky…

GFS

If that is the track of the low, look out, flooding would be a very high threat around here.

The European is just a smidge farther south and you can see how the colder air comes in behind this into early next week…

Euro

As winter takes control by the second half of next week, there will be several systems diving into the deepening trough across the eastern part of the country. The European Model now blows up one of those systems into a winter storm…

Euro 3

The GFS isn’t ready to commit to that, right now, but it does show snow makers diving in from the northwest…

GFS 3

And this begins another back loaded winter weather pattern for our part of the world. Grr.

Enjoy your evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:30 pm

Tracking Heavy Rain For Thursday

Good Wednesday afternoon, folks. It’s another gloomy day in the bluegrass state, but at least it isn’t raining. Enjoy it because that will change quickly on Thursday. Another push of very heavy rain is likely across the region and this can lead to some flooding problems.

The heaviest rains will fall across the central and western parts of the state. The NAM is now showing a swath of 1″-3″ of rain…

NAM

The GFS isn’t quite as heavy, but you can definitely see a similar setup…

GFS Rain

With a waterlogged ground and many creeks and rivers running on the high side, it won’t take much to cause some flooding problems. I would expect Flash Flood Watches to be issued for the central and west.

That system moves out of here by midday Friday with a spring surge coming in behind it. The 60s are back in town into Saturday as we await a bigger system to impact the region this weekend and early next week.

The GFS shows this powerhouse…

GFS

That’s a colder look for later Sunday into early next week.

The Canadian Model is even colder and has a transition to some snow by later Monday into Tuesday morning…

Canadian

Where is a cold high to the north when you need one? The track on that system would be perfect for a shutdown storm if we had that high.

As is, we have to watch for a lot of rain, some thunderstorms and high winds.

Winter returns after we get that system out of the way. The end of next week into the following weekend continues to show up very well on the models…

GFS 2

I will have another update later today. Enjoy your Wednesday and take care.

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Time posted: 1:58 am

Heavy Rain On The Way

Good Wednesday, everyone. We have a small break in the rainy weather, but don’t get too comfortable with it, a lot of rain is on the way. Rounds of rain return as early as Thursday, with the potential for even heavier rain this weekend and early next week.

All of this can lead to, at least, some local high water issues.

Ahead of the next round of rain comes a fairly nice day out there today. Some early day misty showers or drizzle is possible with clouds will hang tough all day. Highs will generally be in the 40s for most.

Rain and some thunder will quickly return from the southwest on Thursday and last into early Friday…

GFS 3

Another 1″-2″ of rain is possible with this system, with locally higher amounts for some in the west and central. Flash flooding is possible with this round.

The rain should move out pretty quickly on Friday as temps surge into the 60s. This carries us into the weekend and a much bigger system set to impact your weather. This comes as a huge upper level low spins into the region and closes off. The end result is a spiraling system of heavy rain, thunderstorms and wind.

The first round of rain comes as this system begins to come together on Saturday…

GFS 4

By Sunday and Monday, this bad boy really gets cranking with the GFS taking this system right on top of us…

GFS 5

The European Model is just a little farther south…

Euro

Once that system finally works to our east, Old Man Winter starts to flex some muscle. This continues to look to be another case of the second half of winter being the main show.

The cold look starts to show up by the middle and end of next week, with even colder air arriving a few days later. The Ensembles continue with a cold look…

GFS Temps

I will have updates later today. Until then, enjoy your Wednesday and take care.

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Time posted: 7:03 pm

Tuesday Evening Update

Good evening, everyone. I don’t have a whole lot of changes to my earlier thoughts as this pattern is loaded for bear in the coming days. Lots of wind and water is on the way to the bluegrass state.

Heavy rain and thunder moves back in on Thursday and can cause some local high water issues into Friday morning. That system sets the stage for a MUCH bigger system later this weekend into early next week. Look at this monster…

Euro

Watch how all the rain and storms spin around this system…

Euro 2

That’s from the European Model and it’s a look that can produce some flooding issues at some point. The latest rain forecast from the GFS continues to show 4″+ inches in parts of the region…

GFS

With a saturated ground and swollen waterways, flooding is a real possibility. Highs winds will also be a huge player during this time.

A winter look follows all that later next week …

GFS 2

A full update comes your way later tonight. Enjoy the evening and take care.

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