Author Archives: Chris Bailey

Time posted: 12:57 am

Steam and Scattered Storms Set To Return

Good Tuesday, folks. It’s another absolutely gorgeous weather day across the bluegrass state, and I recommend you get out and take full advantage of it. Steamy temps and scattered storms are about to make another run at us in the coming days.

The action begins with a big increase in temps and humidity on Wednesday. That can lead to isolated showers and storms bubbling up. This happens as a weak cold front moves in on Thursday with an increase in the scattered stuff. This front is likely to put the brakes on and hang around into the coming weekend…

GFS

The air will be very tropical during this time and that can lead to some heavy rainers. Sigh.

Speaking of the tropics, we are less than a week away from what the models show to be a very formidable system heading toward Florida. The Canadian model…

Canadian

The European Model takes this across Florida and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, strengthening along the way…

Euro

Any system in the Gulf has a shot at directly impacting our weather, so that’s something to keep a close eye on. Especially when the European Model has a trough digging in and trying to capture the system…

Euro 2

Make it a great day and take care.

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Time posted: 12:57 am

Great Weather To Start The Week

Good Monday to one and all. I finally have an update that doesn’t include radars!!! This is one of the few times of the entire summer, and that makes me a very happy weather camper. To make things even better, temperatures and humidity levels are perfect for this time of the year. Enjoy it, things will change a bit later in the week.

A quick word about the summer rains. This is the 4th consecutive wet summer here in the bluegrass state. Lexington is now in the top ten wettest Augusts on record, with more than a week left to roll.

We are not going to add to the rainfall numbers today as we have a dose of the good stuff out there. Even in a “dry” time, we have to watch for a shower or thunderstorm going up in the west on Tuesday. This happens as warmer air moves back in…

NAM

Isolated stuff will be possible on Wednesday with a slightly better chance for some showers and storms on Thursday. That’s ahead of a cold front dropping in from the northwest…

NAM 2

That front will likely hang out across the region into the coming weekend. That should bring some scattered showers and storms to our region…

GFS 3

By this time, we should be tracking something tropical coming through the Caribbean toward Florida. The models, as you would expect from this far out, are all over the place. The GFS…

GFS 2

That’s actually pretty close to the Canadian Model…

canadian

The European Model is now trying to take that system across Florida and into the Gulf, but almost looks like it splits the energy…

Euro

This should be fun to track, as the tropics have a bigger influence on our weather pattern than may people realize.

Have a great day and take care.

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Time posted: 1:11 am

A September Preview Arrives

Good Sunday, folks. The breath of fresh air we’ve been waiting on for the past two months is blowing in today. This will bring a taste of September temperatures for the next few days. Beyond that, much of the pattern is likely to be dictated by what, if anything, happens in the tropics.

Our day starts with some showers and thunderstorms across the central and east. This action moves out during the afternoon, leaving us with much better air blowing in.

This will set the stage for some very cool air tonight with lows in the 50s. The 40s may not be too far away from us…

GFS Temps

Monday will be absolutely fantastic with highs in the upper 70s for much of the central and east, and low 80s in the west. Sunny skies will combine with dewpoints in the 50s to give us some of the awesome sauce…

GFS Temps 2

Tuesday looks like another winner of a day, but moisture starts to creep back in by Wednesday. A stray shower or thunderstorm will be possible. The storm chances increase on Thursday as another cold front sweeps in here…

GFS

As I mentioned earlier, the tropics will, directly or indirectly, dictate the pattern after that.

It’s interesting to note the CFS with an overall cooler look through the first few days of October…

CFS

I’m not sure I buy fully buy that, but that’s what it shows. Speaking of something I rarely buy into…

Farmers

🙂

Have a great day and take care.

7 Comments

Time posted: 2:55 am

A Taste Of September Storms In

Good Saturday, everyone. We have a rather stormy day taking shape across the Commonwealth of Kentucky. These storms are ahead of a strong cold front, bringing a blast of September air to the region over the next few days. Yippee!

Before I get started, I’m thinking of doing some forecast videos for the blog. Is that something you guys would want to see? Just leave a comment and let me know.

Today’s storms could be a bit on the strong side, especially if we can get some sun ahead of the front. Stop me if you’ve heard this one before… these storms can also cause some local high water issues. Sigh. Your tracking tools in a bit.

Sunday starts damp and gray, but ends with brightening skies from west to east. Humidity levels tank with highs generally in the mid and upper 70s…

NAM

A northwesterly wind will continue to blow cooler than normal temps in here for the first few days of next week…

Canadian

Look at how Monday Morning starts out…

GFS Temps 2

The very nice air sticks around into Tuesday, but there are now indications we could see scattered storms return as early as Wednesday. This is ahead of another front dropping in by Thursday and Friday…

GFS 2

Looking farther down the road to late next weekend into early the following week, we find some pretty big differences in the models. The GFS is drunk on hurricane joy juice…

GFS 3

The funny thing about the GFS is, several runs have looked just like that one over the past few days.

The European Model is sober as a church mouse, but has another deep trough digging into the Ohio Valley…

Euro

The Canadian Model is somewhere in between, but has a healthy system off the southeast coast…

Canadian 2

Again… slow your roll on believing any model from this far out. But, we are a weather blog and those are cool to check out from time to time.

Here are your Saturday storm trackers…

Make it a great day and take care.

34 Comments

Time posted: 1:36 am

Big Changes This Weekend

Good Friday to one and all. We have a strong cold front barreling toward the bluegrass state this weekend. That front may produce some strong storms later Saturday. The bigger news is what’s coming behind it, and that’s an honest to goodness blast of awesomeness. 🙂

Scattered storms will be with us out there today, and a few of those could some local high water issues. These storms may also impact a few of the high school football games, but I don’t anticipate widespread issues.

A storm or two will be around on Saturday as some sunshine and gusty winds take over. This is ahead of the front arriving Saturday night and early Sunday. Some strong to locally severe storms will be possible…

Euro

Sunday afternoon begins a flat out awesome stretch of weather in the bluegrass state. Mainly dry conditions take over into the middle of next week as a taste of September blows in. We have had this fairly well covered for a while now, so lets roll ahead.

Another front shows up late next week on the European Model…

Euro 2

That looks a lot like a fall front, stretched out from Canada into the states.

The same model then shows another potent little front moving in late next weekend…

Euro 3

That’s being pushed by another deep trough and cool air…

Euro 4

Here are your Friday tracking toys…

Have a great day and take care.

11 Comments