Author Archives: Chris Bailey

Pleasant Temps Continue

Good Wednesday, friends and neighbors. To say July has been cool would be an understatement. Temperatures are well below normal for the month and several days have featured record lows. The nice temperatures will roll on with no sign of true summertime heat showing up in the coming weeks.

Record lows were set in several cities Tuesday and a few more could fall this morning. Lows in the low and mid 50s are likely for many areas with a touch of dense fog. This afternoon will feature a mix of sun and clouds with a few showers trying to go up. Some isolated rumbles of thunder will be possible.

Today’s Lows

Current Temperatures

Temps over the next few days will slowly warm, but will still be below normal. Highs for Thursday into Friday will range from 80-85 in many areas. Far western Kentucky will be warmer as the dry ground has more of an impact on thermometers.

Scattered showers and storms will increase during this time and may hit a high note over the weekend. The models are throwing out some decent rain totals for a few folks…

GFS Rain We do have a window for temps and humidity to spike for a short time next week, but another dip in the jet stream looks to show up by week 2 of August…

GFS

Fall and winter lovers, listen up. I will show you a seasonal computer model forecast with my next update.

Make it a great day and take care.

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September Rules The Pattern

Good Tuesday, folks. The calendar shows that it is July, but the overall weather pattern has made it feel more and more like September. This is a setup that doesn’t look to change anytime soon… maybe not until it actually IS September. :)

Our day is likely to start with record or near record lows. Upper 40s to low 50s will be a good bet in many areas to begin the day if we can keep the clouds and fog away. Our day will likely start mainly clear with clouds quickly developing. Those clouds could produce isolated showers. Winds will be rather gusty with highs ranging in the low to middle 70s.

Today’s Lows

Current Temperatures

Wednesday should feature more of the same with temps back in the 70s and the chance for a few afternoon showers. The shower chances will increase later this week into the weekend with a few thunderstorms joining the mix. Highs will continue to average below normal.

Those below normal temps look to continue into early August…

GFS 2 GFS 3 The longer range CFS takes us into the middle of September and shows much of the country well below normal between now and then…

CFS

Make it a great day and take care.

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Near Record Low Temps Possible

Good Monday, everyone. What a weather weekend in the bluegrass state! A severe weather outbreak rocked the region with damaging winds and very large hail. I had more tornado warnings to deal with than at any time since March 2nd of 2012. The severe threat is over and now we track the potential for near record cold in the coming days.

The next few days may go down as one of the cooler endings to July on record around here. The setup will feature a deep trough digging in across the eastern part of the country through Wednesday. This will unleash a big-time shot of fall air that could drop overnight lows into the upper 40s to low 50s on any night that has clear skies.

Check out the GFS forecast lows…

GFSThose numbers would set some record lows if they verify. We would nee clear skies and little in the way of fog to do that, but a wet ground argues for some fog. Regardless… we will be very close to records.

Highs will generally range in the 70s through Wednesday with a daily threat for showers and even an isolated thunderstorm. Any areas getting in on afternoon clouds and showers may see temps in the upper 60s to low 70s.

The deep trough will leave behind a closed upper level low by the coming weekend…

GFS 5

That should lead to an increase in showers and a few thunderstorms by late week into the coming weekend. Afternoon temps won’t respond very might with highs from the upper 70s to low 80s.

How about the first week of August? The cooler than normal pattern remains…

GFS 2

There is some data suggesting August turns out similar to July with much below normal temperatures. Summer? Meh… who needs it. ;)

I leave you with today’s trackers…

Current temperatures

Have a great day and take care.

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Tornado Watch Until 2am

Good evening. A TORNADO WATCH is out for much of central and eastern Kentucky until 2am. Storms will continue to get out on their own and there continues to be enough spin in the atmosphere to create the threat for tornadoes. Large hail and damaging winds will also be possible.

Here’s what you need to track the storms…

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

I will be using twitter to send out quick thoughts, warnings and storm reports. Make sure to follow @kentuckyweather .

Take care.

 

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Significant Severe Weather Event Possible

Good Sunday, everyone. Today has the potential to spawn a significant severe weather event across parts of central and eastern Kentucky. This setup is something you normally see during the spring and not on the final weekend of July.

Warm and juicy air continues to stream in from the south and southwest. This is ahead of a very potent cold front that could bring record cold temps our way in the coming days. That clash of air masses is likely to lead to a very active weather day across our region.

The atmosphere will feature much more in the way of spin and that could lead to a few tornadoes going up across the eastern Ohio Valley. That threat looks to include the eastern half of Kentucky. Damaging winds and hail will also be possible.

Here are some trackers to start things off…

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

I will be using twitter to send out quick thoughts, warnings and storm reports. Make sure to follow @kentuckyweather .

Have a great day and take care.

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Severe Thunderstorm Watch Until 4am

Good evening, gang. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH has been issued for much of western and central Kentucky until 4am EST. A line of strong and severe thunderstorms will roll eastward across the state this into the wee hours of the morning.

Damaging winds will be likely with this line. Torrential rainfall may cause local high water issues. I have you all set to track the action…

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

I will have rapid fire updates and warnings coming your way via twitter.

Take care.

 

 

 

 

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Watching The Severe Threat

Good Saturday and welcome to the final weekend of July. Things are looking rather active out there late today into Sunday as strong and severe thunderstorms rumble in. These storms may bring damaging winds and even a tornado threat to our part of the world.

Here’s a breakdown:

- Steamy conditions will invade the state today as humidity levels and temps take off. Upper 80s to around 90 will be possible in central and eastern Kentucky with low 90s in the west.

- Isolated showers and storms will be possible during the daylight hours.

- A complex of storms will likely form to our northwest this afternoon and roll our way late this evening into the overnight. That could be a damaging wind maker and contain torrential rains that may cause local high water issues into Sunday morning.

- The actual cold front enters the picture Sunday afternoon and should spawn additional strong to severe thunderstorms. A few of these storms COULD get out on their own and deliver a small tornado threat.

- September air tumbles in behind the front by Monday. Leftover showers, gusty winds and much cool air sweeps in. Highs will likely stay in the 70s from Monday through Wednesday with the potential for lows to drop into the upper 40s to low 50s on any night with clear skies.

Let’s get to tracking…

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

I will have updates as needed. Have a great day and take care.

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Weekend Severe Weather Threat

Good Friday afternoon, gang. Our threat for severe weather is increasing for the weekend and it may come at us in a couple of rounds. The setup is primed for some big time storms to develop between hot and humid air and potential record breaking cold.

The first round looks to form to our northwest Saturday afternoon and come rolling in Saturday evening into Saturday Night. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted this potential quite well for tomorrow…

SPC 2That may end up being a full blown complex of damaging wind producing storms that would also bring a local flash flood threat with them. These storms will then roll toward the southeast across central and eastern Kentucky into Sunday morning.

We find this cluster of storms exiting the region early in the day with the powerhouse cold front charging in from the northwest. That could ignite additional severe thunderstorms through Sunday evening. The SPC has a greater risk for severe weather with this setup…

SPCLooks like a busy severe weather weekend for much of the region. I will have the latest updates on the threat starting at 4 today on WKYT-TV.

Enjoy the rest of the day and take care.

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Steam and Storms Before Fall Temps Return

Good Friday, everyone. We’ve made it to the last Friday in the month of July and mother nature is about to give us a very wild temperature ride. We have steam and storms for the weekend with another blast of fall temps surging in by Monday.

Let’s get after it…

Today starts with readings in the cool mid and upper 50s and ends with temps in the 80-85 degree range. This goes down as another below normal temperature day in what has been a very cool month.

We will see temps surge toward 90 in many areas for Saturday as high humidity levels surge in. Western Kentucky could sneak into the middle 90s with enough sun. A thunderstorm or two will be possible from the northwestern sky. Those storm chances will really ramp up Saturday night into Sunday when severe weather will be possible. The models are hinting at a large complex of storms diving in…

NAM

This is a pretty good setup for some big time storms and we will really need to keep a close eye on the potential.

A massive trough digs in early next week and brings the potential for record low temperatures across Kentucky and surrounding states. Our dip in the jet stream hangs around through the entire week…

Euro

The end result is below normal temperatures into the first few days of August, at least. Check out the impressive 5 day temperature departure map in Celsius…

GFS 2Something familiar is showing up on the week 2 GFS setup across North America….

GFSA big block across western Canada and some little vortex setting up to the east of that. We started seeing that pattern showing up late last summer into early fall and it’s still around. Hmm

Make it a great day and take care.

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Tracking A Big Blast Of Fall

Good Thursday, everyone. Much cooler air is working into the state today, but this is just a preview of what’s to come next week. It’s another blast of fall temps that could see thermometers challenge record lows once again. This is basically the summertime version of the pattern we had this past winter.

The day will start with a few showers and storms hanging on across the region. Highs will reach the mid and upper 70s in the afternoon with a mix of sun and clouds.  Low humidity levels will make for this a perfect afternoon and evening.

Current temperatures

Lows by Friday morning will drop into the middle 50s for many areas…

GFS

Afternoon temps rebound to the 80-85 degree range with a mix of sun and clouds. Some clouds will increase on Saturday and I can’t rule out a few storms diving in from the northwest. That’s on the cusp of some plains heat that tries to shoot our way for a few hours…

GFS 3

That gets smacked down by a powerhouse of a front arriving from the northwest on Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms will increase and carry us into early Monday. This will be the beginning of a prolonged period of well below normal temperatures. Check out the deep trough digging in…

GFS 2

Record cool high temps and record lows could be challenged next week. Highs should run in the 70s for many days in a row with lows dropping into the upper 40s to low 50s…GFS 4Summer is overrated anyway! ;)

Make it a great day and take care.

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