Author Archives: Chris Bailey

Time posted: 2:34 am

Tracking The Flash Flood Threat

Good Thursday, everyone. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms continue to pound much of the bluegrass state. This action can lead to a tremendous amount of rain that can cause flash flooding issues.

The amount of moisture available in the atmosphere is off the charts. This will only add to the amount of rainfall these storms can produce. Radars will underestimate the totals in a situation like this.

The storms will come at us in waves today and flash flooding is a very real threat. If you live in a low lying or flood prone area, please keep a very close eye on water levels.

After talking about this potential for more than a week, there’s nothing left for us to do, except to track it…

I will have the very latest on twitter and on WKYT-TV. Have a great day and take care.

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Time posted: 1:30 am

Storms On The Increase

Good Wednesday, everyone. Rounds of showers and storms will continue to amp up over the next several days. This action has been well advertised for the past week, and it could bring some issues our way. Heavy rains and some strong storms will be our headline makers in the coming days.

Today will feature more of the same with storms going up in this sticky atmosphere. I will have your tracking toys in a bit.

A trough digs into the Ohio Valley over the next few days. This brings a couple of low pressures through the region, with waves of heavy rain producing showers and storms…

Euro 2

Here is one model rainfall forecast through Friday…


Additional showers and thunderstorms should be around this weekend into early next week…

Euro 3

We will need to be on guard for possible flash flooding through this time.

The pattern remains active next week into the first week of August. That’s when the GFS has been showing a big trough digging into the eastern part of the country…


Here are your tracking toys for the day…

Make it a great day and take care.


Time posted: 1:54 am

Heavy Rain Threat Increases

Good Tuesday to one and all. Rounds of thunderstorms will continue to rumble across the state, and will actually be increasing in the coming days. The setup is primed to deliver some very heavy rains to our part of the world, and this can result in flash flooding issues.

Today’s storms may be similar to what we had on Monday. The action fires up during the afternoon and evening hours, with lots of lightning and heavy rain. Local stream and street flooding will be possible.

Storms will really increase during the second half of the week as a storm system works across our region. This isn’t something you see very often during the heart of summer…


The models continue to point to a lot of rain. The GFS shows a lot of water falling…

GFS Rain

Here’s the Canadian…

GFS Rain

Again… this is the kind of setup that can lead to a flash flood event across our region.

The GFS Ensembles for the next 2 weeks show a very active pattern continuing…

GFS Rain 2

Have a great day and take care.


Time posted: 1:28 am

Rounds Of Storms May Cause Problems

Good Monday, everyone. Our stormy pattern has taken a steamy break, but is ready to roll back into the bluegrass state over the next week and change. Rounds of boomers will push across our region, and could eventually cause some local high water concerns.

The storms out there today could be a little on the strong side. I will have your tracking tools in a bit.

The rest of the week will feature additional rounds of showers and storms, with a much bigger ramp up as we head into the second half of the week. A stronger storm system rolls in during this time…


The models are spitting out a lot of rain over the next week. The Canadian shows some very hefty numbers…

Canadian 2

The GFS isn’t too far behind…


So, you can see the reason for the concern I have.

That could also unleash some much better air as we end July and say hello to August…

Euro 2

With some intrusions of cooler air into parts of the country, one would expect additional storms into the first half of August.

Here are your tracking tools to start the last week of July…

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current Watches
Current Watches

Possible Watch Areas
Current MDs

Have a great Monday and take care.


Time posted: 1:48 am

A Stormy Week On The Way

Good Sunday, my fellow weather weenies. We are wrapping up a typical hot and humid weekend in the bluegrass state. Steamy temps and scattered storms will soon give way to a pattern featuring storms, storms and more storms. Sound familiar? That setup has been the king of the summer.

Today is likely to be what I consider an above normal “hot” day. Readings can hit 95 in some locations, even outside the ridiculous airport thermometers. Scattered storms will develop with some locally heavy downpours and frequent lightning.

The storm action increases over the next couple of days, and a few of the boomers could be strong. This trend of increasing showers and thunderstorms carries us through the rest of the week into the coming weekend. That’s when we get a nice trough digging into the region…

Canadian 2

That should be able to spawn a healthy storm system across the Ohio Valley. The Canadian has it…


So does the GFS…


Given the setup over the next week and change, don’t be surprised if we don’t see some local high water issues develop on occasion.

I recently threw out some winter weather thoughts, and talked about how the forecasts for some raging La Nina were likely overblown. There is some question if we can even get a La Nina to form. The latest CFS forecast shows a borderline weak event this fall and winter…


If we only get to a weak Nina, there are some heavyweight winter analogs showing up.

I leave you with your storm tracking tools…

Make it a great day and take care.