Author Archives: Chris Bailey

Nice Fall Weather Ahead

Good Sunday to one and all. Our chilly run of very wet weather is finally coming to an end. We’re going from absolutely ugly weather to a fantastic fall stretch of sun and pleasant temps. While we enjoy the gorgeous weather to come, I’m already tracking colder changes down the road.

A leftover shower early today will give way to some sun and temps hitting the upper 60s to low 70s this afternoon. That kicks off our great run of weather for most of the week ahead. Daytime highs will be in the 70s with lows dropping into the low 50s. Skies stay partly sunny through Thursday.

A cold front drops in from the northwest by Friday with a band of showers and some thunder. Winds look pretty gusty with temps coming down several degrees. Several of the models still try to pop a slow-moving area of low pressure along this front. The GFS is the most robust of the bunch and spits out some decent 3 day rains…


It’s the following week that should be able to produce some pretty good cold shots into our region…


That matches up well with some of the analogs I’m toying with and matches what the look of the pattern should spit out.

The Canadian CIPS model is out with a new forecast for the winter ahead. It comes out around the first of each month and I’ve been posting what it’s shown since August. Here’s the latest month by month forecast of the upper levels…


Canadian 2Canadian 3Canadian 4

Notice the retrograding ridge across Canada and the low heights across the Aleutian Islands. That setup argues for a decent trough in the eastern part of the United States, and that’s what the model shows. Throw in an active, El Nino induced, southern branch of the jet stream and you can get some big storm systems.

I will ramp up the winter talk over the next few weeks.

Have a great Sunday and take care.


Better Weather After Today

Good Saturday, everyone. We continue tracking rounds of gusty showers working from east to west across the region. This means we have another day of nasty weather. If you’re sick of the ugly (I’m not talking about the mug at the top of the page), much better conditions are on the way.

Rain today comes in from east to west with the most widespread stuff in the central and east. Locally heavy rains will be a good bet and that could lead to some local high water issues across southeastern Kentucky. Winds will be very gusty with highs back in the low and middle 50s.

The showers will gradually taper off this evening as out southeastern storm slowly pulls away. This means a nice Sunday is in the making with only a small shower chance with highs in the upper 60s and low 70s.

Upper 60s to low 70s for highs look like a good bet into the first half of next week with dry weather. That should make for some awesome weather to get out and enjoy fall at its finest.

A cold front arrives by the end of the week and could allow for another slow-moving low pressure to develop along it…


The GFS Ensembles show that same trough moving through here next weekend


It then follows that trough up with a deeper system a few days later…


We find the European Ensembles in good agreement…

Euro 2

All of this means our active pattern isn’t going to be gone for very long, and is likely to bring some very cold shots of air to the party. Could this turn into the 5th straight “interesting” October? Hmmm

While you ponder that question, don’t forget to track some chilly rains…



Have a great day and take care.


Friday Afternoon Update

Good Friday afternoon, gang. It’s ugly out there! Rain, wind and chilly temps continue to dominate the weather across much of our part of the world. A huge storm system continues to develop across the Mid Atlantic and throw rounds of rain into Kentucky.

These rains will be heavy at times with winds gusting to 35mph at times. I can’t rule out a 40mph gust somewhere out there.

I’m finally liking what the GFS is cooking with the east coast storm and with Joaquin. The two stay separate with a Thewave of heavy rain working westward into Kentucky early Saturday…


The model then brings that slow-moving band of heavy rain into eastern and central Kentucky through Saturday evening…


If that’s correct, local high water issues could develop. Check out the rain totals from this run…


Winds will continue to be gusty with temps in the 50s.

In case you missed it last weekend, here’s the map I created showing the pattern I thought would be setting up for today…

Special 3

Not too bad… I’ll take it. Don’t hate on my shameless plug of my mad forecasting skillz. :)

I’ll focus more on where we go over the next few weeks with my regular late night update. Until then, track the cold Kentucky rain…



Take care.


Wind and Rain Start The Weekend

Good Friday, everyone. A wild setup across the eastern part of the country continues to give us some nasty weather here in the bluegrass state. Rain, wind and chilly temps are combining forces to create quite the yuck factor. As all this happens, the weather world continues to watch powerful Hurricane Joaquin.

I’ll get to Joaquin in a moment. Let’s focus on our weather heading into the weekend, first.

Gusty showers will continue to increase across much of the region today. The rains will be coming at us from the east and southeast for the second Friday in a row. It’s not going to rain all the time, but some heavy downpours will be possible when it does. Wind gusts of 25mph will be common today, with gusts to 35mph possible late this afternoon into the evening. Highs will likely stay in the 50s for many.

Your radars to track the drops…



Saturday will find scattered showers around early in the day with a more substantial band of rain moving in during the afternoon and evening. That, again, will be coming from the east and could put down some decent totals in central and eastern Kentucky. Temps will be back in the 50s for highs.

Our weather at this point depends on what happens with our east coast storm and Hurricane Joaquin. These two continue to bat their eyes at one another from across a crowded room. Do they end up getting together or decide it’s not worth the effort?

The European Model continues to suggest they just walk away…


It should be noted that the European Model does try to turn Joaquin back to the west a few days later, but still stays east of New England. That’s a change to the west compared to earlier runs.

The GFS does something similar, but get’s much closer to the northeast…


The map on the left is from Saturday and the map on the right is from Monday. It’s hard to support any solution from the GFS because it gives you something different with each run.

The Canadian Model keeps showing a Mid Atlantic hurricane hit…


That model has been consistent with that solution. Of course, that doesn’t mean it’s right.

The NAM isn’t typically used to track tropical systems because that’s not really its bread and butter. The model has been showing the out to sea solution, but did a 180 with the overnight run…


Again, the NAM isn’t really a good model to look at for tropical systems, but, the pattern across the eastern part of the country isn’t exactly one you would expect with a typical tropical system.

In looking at the models above, it’s all about the timing on when Joaquin makes the turn north out of the Bahamas. The European Model is, by far, the slowest of the 0z models to lift it northward. The NAM and Canadian Models were the quickest.

It appears this hurricane has a small channel it can hit to bring it toward the east coast, but it has to have perfect timing to do so. If not, it’s going out to sea, and that’s probably the correct path. Today should clear all that up… finally.

I will update as needed. Take care.


Thursday Evening Update

Good evening, gang. We continue to track some ugly weather across the bluegrass state, and that’s a sign of things to come as we head into the weekend. This is all part of a extreme setup across the eastern part of the country.

I don’t have a lot of time, so let’s hit the high points.

– Scattered showers continue across the area this evening. That picks up as we head into Friday with some locally heavy downpours. Highs in the central and east will stay in the 50s again.

– A potent storm system along the east coast will throw more showers and a period of heavier rains west into the region on Saturday. That’s when the heaviest rains may fall… especially in the east and southeast.

– I like what the NAM is showing for rain numbers…

NAM– That matches up well with the European Model and we also find the guys and gals at the WPC putting out a similar forecast…

WPC– Highs on Saturday will be back in the 50s for many areas.

– Winds will continue to be gusty and could approach 35mph at times in the coming days.

– What happens with Hurricane Joaquin? I still think we are a ways away from that being determined. Joaquin is a powerful Cat 4 storm in the Bahamas and will slowly lift to the north on Friday. From there, we find many of the models in the same camp we found each of them last night.

The European Model continues to push that storm well out to sea. The GFS has joined that line of thinking, but the  model looks kooky with the handing of the east coast storm. The Canadian Model still has a North Carolina landfall.

The NAM allows Joaquin to initially escape only to be pulled back to the west late Sunday. The model only goes out to 2am Monday and shows the system on a westerly/northwesterly course…

NAM 2Nothing is set in stone with this kinda setup, and we still have some time to figure it all out.

Regardless, windy, wet and chilly weather will be common around here through Saturday. I will have a full update later tonight. Until then, track the pesky showers we have out there now…



Take care.


October Starts Wet and Windy

Good Thursday, folks. October is off and running with a supercharged pattern across the eastern half of the country. We have a ton of weather going on with a big east coast storm trying to make a weekend love connection with major Hurricane Joaquin.

Regardless of what happens with that atmospheric romance, the weather around here looks ugly for the first few days of the new month.

Here’s a rundown of how all this may play out:

– Scattered showers will be around today and we have to be on guard for a heavier band of rain setting up somewhere across central and eastern Kentucky. Highs will be in the upper 50s and low 60s.

– Showers increase on Friday as our flow comes more from the east and southeast. That will make it back to back Fridays with watching rain moving in from the eastern sky. Locally heavy downpours are likely with temps struggling to get out of the 50s.

– Showers from the east will continue into Saturday and Saturday night. The extent of the rainfall depends on what happens along the east coast. Highs should be back in the chilly 50s.

– Winds will be very gusty through the weekend. Routine gusts of 20-25mph will be noted, but some gusts to 35-40mph can’t be ruled out. This is a nice little pressure gradient we have out there.

So what happens this weekend across the east coast? That’s still very much up in the air and the models aren’t showing a lot of continuity. But, that’s to be expected with a rather extreme setup.

This is getting within the window of the NAM. That model appears to be a southern outlier with the track of Joaquin into South Carolina…


Here’s the rainfall forecast from that run…


The GFS shows a different solution with each run of the model. The latest run shows the east coast low diving all the way into the deep south and slingshoting  our Hurricane into the northeast…


The Canadian Model is showing a bit of consistency with the overall evolution along the coast…


The European Model is also consistent in showing Joaquin escaping out to sea and never really getting close to the east coast…


That still shows some very heavy rains and gusty winds around here as we head into Friday and Saturday, especially.

I will update as needed through the day. I leave you with your daily dose of radars…



Have a great day and take care.


Update On The Weekend

Good Wednesday evening, gang. Locally heavy rains continue across much of central and eastern as a system basically stays in place. This setup should carry us through Thursday.

The focus from there is on what happens this weekend. The two main players will be Hurricane Joaquin and  a huge area of low pressure across the Mid Atlantic States. Will these two get together to form a blockbuster storm? Depends on which model you ask.

The European Model continues to show these two missing out on each other with Joaquin heading out to sea…

Euro 2

As you can see, that model still brings heavy rain and gusty winds to our region through the weekend. That same model run shows some hefty totals in central and eastern Kentucky…

EuroThe NAM also shows a miss…

NAMThe same model run brings heavy rains from the east into Kentucky Saturday and Saturday night…

NAM 2Several other models show our east coast system and Joaquin making a weekend hook up. Here’s the Canadian model…

CanadianThe GFS model continues to show this well, but shifts around on when and where. Here’s the hot off the presses run…

GFSFor Kentucky, it may not matter much on whether or not these two get together. Either way likely means wet weather and chilly temps for the weekend.

I will have another update late tonight. Your radars will carry you until then…



Enjoy the evening and take care.

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Wednesday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, folks. We continue to track a wild setup as we head into the first few days of October. Joaquin is now a Hurricane and should become a strong one over the next few days. The interaction between our hurricane and an east coast storm could create an absolute monster over the weekend.

Before all this happens, we have bands of heavy rain to track across central and eastern Kentucky. A steady band of heavy rain has already produced 1″-3″ of rain in part of west-central Kentucky. Recent runs of the NAM had a great handle on that setup and continue to do so. The Hi-Res NAM initialized perfectly with the placement of the band this morning. That same model suggests it slowly works east and northeast into  central Kentucky later today into Thursday.

Check out the heavy rain totals over the next few days…


From there, rain is likely to increase from the east later Friday into Saturday. That will be the case with or without Joaquin combining forces with the east coast storm. The NAM shows a wall of rain and wind rolling in early Saturday… NAM 2Temps through this time are VERY chilly with lots of highs in the 50s.

So, what about the monster storm potential? That is most certainly on the table, but we will continue to see wild model swings with that possibility. I will update all that later this evening.

Updates as needed later today. I leave you with your daily dose of radars…



Take care.


Wild Weather To Start October

Good Wednesday, everyone. Rains over the past few days have been nothing short of impressive. Many spots picked up well over 1″ of rain with several areas checking in with 2″-3″. As we track additional showers today, we have to really start focusing on an extreme event across the east coast. It’s one that could very well impact our weather this weekend.

My initial thought was for some leftover showers to be noted across our region today, but a couple new computer models caught my attention. The NAM and Hi Res NAM both develop a very slow-moving area of showers across central and eastern Kentucky today. Both models keep this going into Thursday with additional action developing on Friday.

Because of the slow movement, the NAM is spitting out a ton of rain during this time…


That is likely to be overdone, but it’s something I can’t dismiss given how that model nailed the two and three inch rain amounts on Tuesday. If those numbers are realized, high water concerns would come into play. We will just have to watch the radar today to see how that plays out.

Winds will be gusty today as cooler air moves in from the northwest. Temps should mainly be in the 60s and continue to drop over the next few days.

Whatever happens with the rain today and Thursday, a surge of moisture should cause rain to increase again on Friday. This time it comes back at us from the east and southeast and is ahead of the east coast monster.

Low pressure will develop across the Mid-Atlantic states Friday. At the same time, Joaquin will be strengthening near the Bahamas. This is likely to grow into a strong hurricane before all is said and done and that’s where things really get wild.

The models continue to suggest a scenario to which the Mid-Atlantic low captures Joaquin and whips it westward into North Carolina and Virginia…


That is absolutely stunning to see and would be an absolute disaster from the Appalachian Mountains to the coast and then into the northeast.

That would also likely bring gusty winds and chilly rains into our region…


That is from Friday night through Sunday night. Leftover showers and gusty winds would last into Monday on that particular run of the GFS.

Hefty rain totals show up across eastern Kentucky, but pale in comparison to those on the other side of the mountains…


The European Model does not get the low and hurricane to hook up. That doesn’t keep the model from giving us a washout of a weekend with heavy rains…


Let me be clear, the above solutions are just a few of many possibilities to take into consideration in the coming days. With such an extreme setup, it will take some time to sort out how all that plays out.

Regardless of what happens with that storm, the weather around here will be very chilly and windy through the weekend. Showers are a good bet during this time, but the extent of the rain will be determined by what goes on to our east.

Updates as needed later today. I leave you with your daily dose of radars…



Enjoy the day and take care.


Tuesday Evening Update

Good evening, gang. Heavy rain continues to fall across much of the region. Several spots have already picked up more than 1″-2″ of rain with more on the way in the coming days. That’s especially true if the big east coast storm gets cranking by the end of the week into the weekend.

The storm in itself looks like a given. The big question is, will it be able to capture Tropical Storm Joaquin? The latest GFS shows a monster storm that does just that. Notice how the model develops rain around here early Friday with possible Hurricane Joaquin lurking near the Bamamas…


Now, watch what happens when the mid atlantic low fully captures the storm…


Notice how that monster of a storm works toward the west and northwest with rain and wind increasing around here . VERY chilly temps show up during this time…

GFS TEMPS 1Those highs are more than 15 degrees below normal…

GFS TEMPS 2The latest European Model brings similar conditions to our region, but looks a little kooky with the latest run.

The UKMET is very similar to the GFS as it shows the storm capturing Joaquin in the mid atlantic states. These are 24 increments…

UKMETWe will see how things look as we roll forward, but the potential for a very ugly weekend is there.

I leave you with your radars to track…



I’ll see you tonight for a normal update. Take care.