Author Archives: Chris Bailey

Scattered Storm Threat Increasing

Good Friday to one and all. We have one more absolutely gorgeous fall weather day in the works before changes move in for the weekend. These changes mean an increase in showers and thunderstorm chances as our pattern begins to warm. The tropics are also alive and well and I take a look at that. Plus, we take a longer look into the fall.

Highs today will be in the upper 70s to around 80 across much of central and eastern Kentucky. Low 80s will be in the west with a mix of sun and clouds. There is the smallest chance for a popup storm in the far southeast this evening.

Saturday will see moisture and temps increasing with the threat for a scattered shower or thunderstorm. The storm threat really ramps up on Sunday as we see a hint of a tropical connection showing up. Juice increases from the south and southeast as Erika approaches Florida. You can see this on the NAM…

NAMThat connection shows up a littler better on the European Model…

EuroThe weather for next week depends on what happens with Erika and the models continue to be all over the place. This system heads toward Florida later this weekend and then we will see where it goes from there. Here’s the latest from the Tropical Prediction Center…

Looking deeper into fall with the CFS shows our warmer start to September, but some chilly changes later in the month and into October. These maps are 10 day increments…

CFS CFS 2 CFS 3 CFS 4I’m telling you, this is going to be a bear of a fall and winter forecast. No true analog years to what’s going on right now means I have my work cut out for me. I’m ready to rumble… let’s roll! :)

Have a great Friday and take care.

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A Little Bit of Action Ahead

Good Thursday to one and all. We continue to see gorgeous fall weather across our part of the world. To say this is as good as it gets during August would be an understatement. Heck, this would be awesome for late September! Speaking of our 9th month of the year, it’s just around the corner and I am tracking some changes to start things off.

Highs today will be back into the mid and upper 70s for much of the region. Sunny morning skies will see some clouds fill in during the afternoon hours.

Friday looks similar with just a small spike in temps compared to today. Still, things look great.

Moisture starts to increase over the weekend and that could cause a shower or thunderstorm to go up. The best chance appears to be on Sunday…

GFSTemps will warm back into the lower 80s for much of the region. Humidity levels will come up as well.

From there, it’s all about what happens with Tropical Storm Erika. The models continue to come up with different solutions with each run., but are targeting anywhere from Florida to the Carolinas for a possible hit. The Canadian model…

Canadian

The GFS is similar, but a little slower and farther west…

GFS

There’s still a lot of time to watch and see what happens with this storm, and if it will have any direct impact on our weather here in Kentucky. Something to think about… Tropical systems can impact the behavior of the overall pattern across the United States. Some of the overnight model runs aren’t looking as warm into the first half of September with how they play Erika.

Here’s the latest 5 day track from the Tropical Prediction Center…

Have a great day and take care.

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Changes Show Up Next Week

Good Wednesday, folks. Our fall weather pattern keeps on delivering the goods across the commonwealth of Kentucky. The nice temps are also bringing a lot of dry weather, and that’s more than okay after the soggy¬†summer we’re coming out of.

This is also the time of year we start to watch the tropics to see what’s cooking. We have Tropical Storm Erika out in the atlantic and the models are having a tough time, as usual, figuring out what to do with it.

The latest track from the Tropical Prediction Center takes this storm toward the Bahamas and strengthens it into a hurricane…

If the storms stays on the southern edge of the forecast cone, it could have a tough go at it because of the interaction with land/mountains. A lot of the straight tropical forecasting models take Erika on a track similar to what the TPC shows.

Some of the latest “regular” computer model runs try to take a weakened system into the Gulf of Mexico late this weekend or early next week. The Canadian Model, which loves to ramp up tropical systems, has the most ominous look…

CanadianAs you can see, that run brings what’s left of the system into the bluegrass state.

The European Model also has this in the eastern Gulf, but isn’t as strong…

EuroOverall, the pattern has a warmer look to it as we close in on Labor Day weekend and through much of September. Let’s see if that look actually becomes reality.

Have a great day and take care.

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Our Fall Week Rolls On

Good Tuesday, everyone. Our fall week of weather continues across the entire region, and three’s really not a lot more I can say about it. Just relax and enjoy it. Trying to figure out where we go from is in the focus of the forecast as September is just around the corner. Wait… September is almost here? Time flies!

The deep trough delivering the cool air of this week will split and leave a piece across the south. This happens as another small piece of energy dives in here this weekend and early next week…

GFS

That’s not as cool as where we are now, but it’s also a look that isn’t totally warm, either. That flow can also throw some clouds and scattered showers and storms in here. You can see the plume of juice extending from the Gulf into our region…

Euro

Again, that’s from this weekend into early next week. Some of the models are also hinting at some tropical development in the eastern Gulf during this time. Just something to watch as we are at that time of the year.

Looking ahead to September, the CFS continues to indicate temps skewing warmer…

CFS

The latest run also shows wet weather returning…

CFS 2

I admit, I’m torn with how I want to play September and October. We’re in unchartered territory when it comes to this El Nino and the rest of the Pacific Ocean temp profile. Don’t let anyone else tell you differently! ūüėČ

Have a great day and take care.

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Fall Temps Dominate The Week

Good Monday, everyone. If you’re a fan of fall, this August is nothing short of a bonus month for you. Temps have been very pleasant for much of the month, but the best is yet to come. The temps and weather out there this week will be nothing short of phenomenal!

Our front is moving to the east early today as cooler and drier air blows in from the northwest. We start the day in the 50s central and west with 60s in the east. Highs will stay in the 70s.

Cooler air continues to push in from the northwest over the next several days. Look at how much real estate will be well below normal…

GFS

That should be cool enough to give us our first taste of 40s for lows. The models continue to show some of the cooler valleys deep into the 40s…

GFS Temps

Afternoon highs over the next few days may struggle to get into the middle 70s for some areas. The NAM likes low 70s on Tuesday…

NAM

You can probably add a few degrees to those numbers, but the fact the model is forecasting temps to be THAT cool is amazing with full sun in August.

Readings through the end of the week will remain well below normal. Highs may not reach 80 for some areas until the weekend.

Make it a great day and take care.

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Here Comes Another Fall Front

Good Sunday to one and all. We have another potent cold front swinging into the state today and this will deliver another major blast¬†of fall. The air coming in here for the upcoming week is likely to deliver some of the coolest air we’ve had since late spring.

Today’s front works from west to east with scattered showers and storms going up ahead of it. The actual boundary slides through here tonight with winds gusting up and temperatures tanking. The west and central parts of the state hit the 50s by Monday morning with the east, still dealing with the front, in the 60s.

Look at the Monday morning forecast numbers in the plains states…

NAM

That’s from the Hi Res NAM and really illustrates how cool of an air mass we’re talking about.

Mostly sunny skies and a gusty northwesterly wind settles in for Monday with highs in the 70s. From there, this is the pattern that sets up for the rest of the week…

Special 2

Cooler air continues to push in for Tuesday through Thursday with highs generally in the 70s. Overnight lows can drop into the upper 40s in some areas. All of this comes with a gorgeous, fall sky to go along with the pleasant temps.

The new CFS for the rest of August shows a cooler than normal look…

CFS 3

The “skewing warmer” idea keeps getting pushed back into September. Even there, the CFS is waffling between warmer and cooler. At this point, it’s pretty hard now to go against a cooler look. That’s been the setup since late summer of 2013 and really shows little signs of changing. This has been one stable pattern.

While on the subject of temps, my twitter followers may have noticed me going off on the official Lexington temperature at Blue Grass Airport… Again. The faulty temperature sensor was replaced last November and it worked like a charm until the past month. It’s now back to skewing daytime temps much warmer than surrounding sites and what the climatology of the site would suggest.

The site worked properly for a whopping 8 months after a very expensive fix. This go around, I’m not alone in trying to figure out what’s going on with the site. Some pretty big players are getting involved… Stay tuned!

I leave you with your Sunday tracking tools…

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

Make it a great day and take care.

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Even Cooler Temps On The Way

Good Saturday and welcome to the weekend. We’ve had some awesome weather days across the region for the past several days. Another fall front is on the way later Sunday and this will bring even cooler air for the first half of the next week. We could see the coolest air since spring.

Today is another winner of a weather day with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s for many. Isolated showers and storms will be around the far west and south later in the day.

The next front arrives Sunday afternoon and evening with a¬† broken line of showers and storms…

GFSWinds will really gust up as this front moves through here, but the temps will steal the spotlight. Watch the temperature crash from Sunday into Monday…

GFS TEMPS 2Highs in the 70s should be common from Monday through Wednesday, at least. Overnight lows could drop into the upper 40s on a couple of mornings. Some of the model forecasts are pretty chilly…

GFS TEMPS 1All of this fits the pattern I’ve been describing for the past several months. Remember all those later Summer cool shots I’ve been talking about? They’re here!

Have a great Saturday and take care.

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Fantastic Fall Weather Continues

Good Friday, everyone. I really don’t have a whole lot to say on a perfect day like today. This weather is about as good as you can get this time of year and it certainly has a fall flavor to it. That looks to continue into next week before some warmer changes try to show up.

Highs today will be in the upper 70s to around 80 for much of the region. Skies should be partly to mostly sunny.

High school football kicks off this evening and we couldn’t ask for better conditions. Kickoff temps will be in the low and middle 70s with 2nd half numbers dropping into the 60s. That’s unheard of for week one of the season!

Saturday looks great with high 70s and low 80s for highs with some high clouds on the increase. Those clouds are ahead of a cold front that drops in here later Sunday and early Monday. Scattered showers and storms will be along and ahead of this front that ushers in another fall feel…

Euro

Highs for several days may not get out of the 70s with low temps all the way down into the 50-55 degree range. There’s the outside chance of the first upper 40s of the season showing up!.Yes, please!

I’ve been hinting at a warm stretch of weather at some point in late August or into early September, but the models keep pushing that back. I still like my call from a month ago of a prolonged period of warmth after Labor Day. The CFS has a warm look to it for September as a whole…

CFS

Make it a great day and take care.

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Another Taste Of Fall Sweeps In

Good Thursday, everyone. The dog days of summer are pretty much over and, for the third straight year, they gave us barely a whimper of heat. The weather pattern this month has had a pronounced fall look to it and there is no sign of that letting up over the next week, at least.

A strong cold front blasts across the region early today with showers and thunderstorms ending from west to east. Winds will be very gusty with highs only in the 70s. Skies will become partly sunny with very nice late day conditions taking shape.

This is one heck of a deep trough digging into our region today…

EuroLows by Friday morning should be in the mid and upper 50s for many areas with some fog. Afternoon temps will approach 80, but the latest guidance continues to come in a little cooler…

NAMEither way, it looks absolutely gorgeous as we kick off the high school football season. Game time temps will be around 75 with upper 60s showing up in the 2nd half. Sweatshirt weather already?

Saturday looks equally as nice with a mix of sun and clouds. Lows will be in the 50s with afternoon highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s. There is a small threat for a shower or thunderstorm in the west.

Another fall cold front marches in here late Sunday and Monday with a scattered shower or thunderstorm. That’s another potent trough digging into the region…

Euro 3Temps behind that will be much cooler than normal for much of the week… GFS TEMPS 1

Lows in the 50s with highs ranging from the upper 70s to low 80s. How ’bout them dog days?

Have a great day and take care.

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Tracking A Strong Cold Front

Good Wednesday, everyone. We have another strong cold front moving into the bluegrass state with showers and storms on the increase. As the threat for boomers goes up, the temperatures are getting ready to go down. Some more of the good stuff is on the way!

Today’s storms increase from west to east with heavy downpours and the potential for some strong storms. We will have to watch out for the possibility of high winds and hail. Your tracking tools in a bit.

The cold front swings through here early Thursday as showers and storms end from west to east. Temps will be held way down and you can see where the front is on the temperature departure map tomorrow afternoon…

Euro

A much better brand of air pushes in during the afternoon and evening as we dry things out. Highs stay in the 70s as skies slowly clear.

Friday’s weather starts in the 50s and ends with upper 70s and low 80s across the state…

Euro 2

While it looks dry for Friday, we have to watch for some low-level moisture hanging around and spitting out an isolated shower.

Saturday will see temps in the 80-85 degree range with partly sunny skies. Another front works in here late Sunday and Monday with an increase in scattered showers and storms. That should unleash another nice shot of air with readings solidly below normal…

Euro 3I leave you with your storm tracking tools…

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

Have a great day and take care.

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