Author Archives: Chris Bailey

Super Bowl Sunday Update

Good Sunday and Happy Super Bowl. Old Man Winter is about to surge back into the bluegrass state with rounds of snow and arctic cold temperatures.

The first system zips in here tonight and Monday morning with a band of rain and snow. This starts as rain, but should quickly go over to snow and could put down a slushy accumulation for some areas. Here’s the Hi Res NAM simulated radar to start Monday…


Temps directly behind that first wave stay above freezing into Monday afternoon. That changes as the next wave of snow showers and squalls move in from Monday afternoon into Monday evening. There is a definitive convective look to the future radar during this time…


That means the potential for blinding snow squalls that can drop a quick inch or two in a short amount of time. Winds would blow that around and we even have a small threat for some thundersnow.

The 10-1 (no fluff factor) snowfall map from that same run suggests some serious squall potential…


Travel issues will likely develop Monday night into Tuesday. I anticipate Winter Weather Advisories being issues for much for much of the region. They are certainly warranted, but that’s out of my control.

The northwesterly flow really kicks on Tuesday into Tuesday night with widespread snow showers and some squalls continuing…


Bitterly cold temps continue to push in during this time as snow showers last into Wednesday. Highs Wednesday and Thursday will have a hard time getting out or the teens with single digit lows possible. Below zero wind chills continue to show up at times…

GFS Temps

Another clipper dives in later Friday with a fresh round of arctic air for the weekend…

Euro 2

The European Model continues to show a healthy snowstorm by next Sunday and Monday…

Euro 3

I will have the very latest on WKYT-TV tonight after the Super Bowl. Until then, I have your tracking toys…

Enjoy the rest of your Sunday and take care.


A Harsh Week Of Winter Weather Ahead

Good Sunday, folks. It’s not exactly the Super Bowl of winter weather, but we do have a rather harsh week of winter on the way to our region. Rounds of snow, gusty winds and shots of arctic air will combine to give us a taste of the frozen tundra. Get ready for a lot a lengthy update with lots of maps. :)

A cold front blows through here overnight with a band of rain and snow along and behind it. That could put down some light accumulations for a few spots to start Monday, but most areas should be ok during the morning. After a bit of a midday break in the action, snow showers and squalls become widespread by Monday evening. That action should continue through Tuesday and Wednesday.

The simulated radar from the NAM…


That’s a stout northwesterly flow coming across the warmer than normal Great Lakes. The air aloft and at the surface looks very cold through the week. Check out this flow…

GFS Temps

A clipper or two will try to sneak in at some point from late Thursday through Friday. The models differ on when, but all show a few of them impacting our weather.

With such cold air in place, the fluff factor of the snow is going to be up there. That means the same amount of moisture that normally produces one inch of snow could produce two or three inches. The GFS continues to pick up on that factor very well. Here’s what the model thinks will happen through FRIDAY…

GFS Snow

You can definitely see the Lake Michigan influence showing up with that run. Please keep in mind… that’s a model projection that is over the span of 5 days. Repeat… 5 days.

While I agree with the overall premise of what the model shows, snow totals and placement during the week will depend on several factors. Wind direction and duration, snow squalls that move over repeat areas, and the path of any clipper action.

As I have said, most areas pick up a general 1″-4″ this coming week with higher amounts a possibility. The mountains in the east stand the best chance of seeing totals that can really add up.

The temps for the week ahead are VERY cold! The GFS forecast for morning lows…

GFS Temps 2

Wind chills…

GFS Temps 3

From there, the GFS loses its way as another huge blast of arctic air appears poised to invade next weekend. The Canadian Model shows a snow maker ahead of it for late Friday…

Canadian 2

The European Model is very similar with this…


Some absolutely insane cold air is showing up on the European Model for next weekend…

Euro 2

If correct, below zero temps could push deep into the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys by Valentine’s morning. Wind chills could be crazy low.

The European Model then follows that up with a decent snow threat…

Euro 3

The Canadian model at the same time…

Canadian 4

Lots of winter action on the way over the next few weeks and it gets started late tonight into Monday.

I will update things later today. Until then, make it a good one and take care.


Saturday Evening Thoughts

Good evening, everyone. Things continue to progress nicely toward a very wintry pattern taking up residence across much of the country over the next few weeks. This all gets underway with a system working in from the northwest Sunday night into Monday.

This puts us in a northwesterly flow with additional systems diving in here from the northwest with rounds of snow showers/squalls. A true clipper or two will try to join the fray for the middle and end of the week. The GFS snowfall forecast through Wednesday shows a general 1″-4″ across much of the state with higher amounts possible in the southeast…

GFS Snow

Expand that out through Friday and the totals increase a bit…

GFS Snow 2

Check out this absolutely Frigid pattern on the European Model…


The Friday-Saturday maps basically show the Polar Vortex dropping toward the Great Lakes and northeast with even colder air moving in here. That is introduced by another potential light snow maker.

That should set the stage for another system to follow that up around Valentine’s Day. That one is handled differently with each model run that comes out. Here’s what the European Has with it…

Euro 3

I’ll have a full update later tonight. Enjoy your Saturday evening and take care.


Watching The Return Of Winter

Good Saturday, everyone. We have a very nice weather weekend in progress across our part of the land. Sun and clouds will battle it out as thermometers run a little above normal for this time of year. By Monday, all of that goes out the window as winter returns.

I’m not going to spend a lot of time rehashing the same ideas I’ve talked about for a while now. Our first front drops in Sunday night with some rain and snow showers increasing. Temps drop behind that front as the next wave of snow showers and squalls kicks in from the northwest later Monday. The NAM future radar shows widespread coverage into Tuesday morning…


One of the cool things to look at in a northwesterly flow situation is the relative humidity at 925mb. When you see a lot of low-level moisture like this…


That’s a good sign for widespread snow showers and squalls across our part of the world.

The GFS continues to pick up well on the snowfall potential through Thursday morning…

GFS Snow

It wasn’t as robust as the earlier run because it lost the Wednesday clipper. I think there’s still a chance of seeing that system return to the models.

The snow in the week ahead is going to “nickel and dime” us to death. It comes in waves, with a three day total of 2″-4″ (locally higher) for many areas. Higher amounts will certainly be a good bet in the upslope favored areas of southeastern Kentucky.

Winds will be very gusty during this time as arctic air sweeps in.

Another shot of arctic air sweeps in here by Friday…

Euro 2

That could produce another period of light snow or snow squalls across our region. From there, we will then watch for a possible system to impact the region around Valentine’s Day.

By the way… wild swings are taking place on every single model. That’s common is such a ramped up and energetic pattern like we’re seeing over the next few weeks.

I will have updates later today. Make it a good one and take care.


Friday Night Update

Good evening, everyone. We’re rolling toward a very wintry pattern taking shape for our part of the world. All of this kicks off late Sunday night and will likely hang around for a few weeks, at least.

I have absolutely no changes on my thoughts for next week. This deep trough will allow for numerous upper air systems to work in here on a strong and cold northwesterly flow. Throw in some moisture from the Great Lakes and you can see the snow numbers add up.

The latest GFS snow forecast for Monday-Wednesday…


The Canadian Model only has a 10-1 ratio, but still has some nice totals…


The same 10-1 ratio is used for the European Model…


The European Ensembles from WeatherBELL…

Euro 4

Moral of the story… the stage is set for multiple rounds of snows that can put down several inches over a three to four day span. Arctic cold and gusty winds will also be noted.

Another surge of arctic air arrives by late Friday and could bring more snow. Here’s the European model…

Euro 2

In my last update, I mentioned the potential for a big overrunning system around the middle of the month. The European Model says Happy Valentine’s Day…

Euro 3

That’s a lot of winter showing up over the next few weeks!

Make it a great evening and take care.


Winter Weather Follows A Nice Weekend

Good Friday, folks. We have some very nice weather pushing into the commonwealth of Kentucky over the next few days. That bodes well for those of us who would like to get outside and enjoy our weekend. All of this changes in a big, big way by Monday as winter weather returns to the region.

This return to winter has been well telegraphed for a while now, with a deep trough digging into the eastern part of the country…


There’s a lot of energy dropping into our region and that means we have waves of snow squalls and snow showers coming Monday through Wednesday. Some of the latest model runs are now introducing a clipper system into the mix for Wednesday into Wednesday night…

Canadian 2

Over a 3-4 day stretch, anywhere from an inch or two to several inches of snow may fall where you live. I would like to get more specific, but that’s hard to do until we can see how each of, the many, pieces of energy play out.

The Canadian Model snowfall forecast through Thursday includes the clipper, but is based on a 10-1 ratio…


Again, don’t get caught up in snow maps from this far out. This is not a true storm, but a several day event where we get waves of snows pressing through here. The best chance for accumulations and some snow days looks to be from Tuesday-Thursday.

Looking at the next two weeks on the individual members of the GFS Ensembles from WeatherBELL, we find an active pattern continuing…


I look at this pattern and wonder if we are setting ourselves up for a big overrunning system around the middle of the month.

Updates later today. Until then, enjoy your Friday and take care.


Thursday Evening Update

Good evening, everyone. It’s full steam ahead toward a nice Super Bowl Weekend, and I suggest you get out and enjoy every minute of it. Winter surges back into the bluegrass state early next week with arctic cold and snow.

We’re going into a pattern that will feature a 3-4 day period of snow showers and squalls across our region. That starts Monday morning and runs through early Thursday. Northwesterly winds coming across the warmer than normal Great Lakes will combine with several upper air systems to create the widespread snow showers and squalls.

The GFS snow forecast through Wednesday…


Keep in mind, it’s forecasting that to fall collectively over a 3 day period. You may never see those totals on the ground at any one time.

How do you know these snow squalls mean business? When I look at the raw output for Lexington and see the model showing the threat for thundersnow…

GFS 2The Canadian Model is very similar to the GFS with this setup. This snowfall map is only for a 10-1 ratio…


Our ratios will likely be quite a bit higher. That’s the “fluff factor” I often talk about.

The European Ensembles show another system to watch next weekend into early the following week. Here’s the 2 week snow forecast from that model…

Euro 2

Enjoy your evening and take care.


Tracking The Return Of Winter

Good Thursday to one and all. We continue to highlight early next week for a big return to winter across the eastern half of the country. Arctic cold temperatures and rounds of snows look to kick off a rather harsh winter pattern for our part of the world.

The weather between now and Sunday night looks pretty calm. Beyond that… it’s anything but calm.

The HUGE trough digging into the region Monday through Wednesday is likely to bring waves of light snow and snow squalls. Check out the GFS…


Look at how strong that northwesterly flow is. With multiple disturbances moving in and the Great Lakes waters warmer than normal… look out. If that flow does indeed set up like the GFS suggests, snows could add up over the course of that 3 day period. That particular run shows some decent totals…

GFS SnowThat’s over the course of a 3 day period with the chance the model is a little underdone. Typical model variance will show up from run to run, so don’t get overall attached to any one map.

The GFS Ensembles individual members from WeatherBELL lend support to the operational GFS.





Bitterly cold air and gusty winds cap off this run of the GFS and the model is sending wind chills below zero at times…

GFS Temps

I will update things later today, so check back.

Make it a good day and take care.


Wednesday Evening Talk

Good evening, everybody. I wanted to drop by for a quick update on the pattern for next week as winter returns to much of the country.

Nothing has really changed from my previous update as we may be seeing a series of systems dropping in from the northwest from Monday through Wednesday. Each of those would bring bands of snows and snow showers with gusty winds and colder air.

For fun, the GFS is showing the possibility of 3 days worth of snow adding up for some areas…


Don’t get married to that map… I’m just showing it to illustrate how 3 days worth of systems can add up if they actually happen.

Bitterly cold air pushes in with the snow rounds…


Another arctic outbreak is likely to follow that up by next weekend. If the full brunt of the wicked cold stays just to our north like the GFS says…


That opens the door for the southern branch of the jet stream to send a possible storm toward the east…


We will see how all of this evolves, but the next few weeks have a lot of potential around here and for much of the country.

I’ll see you back here for a full update tonight. Enjoy the evening and take care.


Midday Update

Good afternoon, folks. Colder winds are now blowing across the bluegrass state as temps crash from west to east. The seasonal cold over the next few days is just the opening act to the return of winter. Things get cranking early next week with bitter cold and snows on the move.

For the past week, I’ve been highlighting the period of February 7th-11th for harsh winter weather to return to our region and the eastern part of the country. The upper air charts have been all over this, and continue to be. You cannot get a trough of this depth without some harsh stuff…


The surface charts are slowly catching on to all this. The latest GFS suggests waves of windy snows as bitterly cold air sweeps in here. The below maps are from Monday through Wednesday…


With such cold temperatures, it doesn’t take much moisture to produce snow, and those temps are brutal. Over the course of 3 days, that’s a setup that can potentially deliver a few to several inches of snow in some areas.

There’s a good chance we are looking at some snow days next week. Hear that teachers and kiddos? :)

Lows from the GFS with clouds and flakes…

GFS Temps

There’s another surge of arctic air that may follow that up by next weekend with an interesting possibilities showing up coming out of the southern branch around the same time.

I will have another update later today. Make it a good one and take care.