Author Archives: Chris Bailey

Time posted: 1:56 am

A Significant Flood Threat Ahead

Good Tuesday, everyone. Flooding is likely to become a significant problem over the next several days, as rounds of showers and thunderstorms target the bluegrass state. Several inches of rain will fall from Wednesday through Sunday, so look out.

Before we get to the flood threat, let’s talk about the historic temps out there today. This will be one of the warmest February days on record for Kentucky. For some cities, it may be the warmest February day. Highs will flirt with 80 degrees, which is a typical high for early June. Wow.

The setup from Wednesday through Sunday will feature a front stalling out across our region, with waves of low pressure working along it…

That front will likely oscillate back and forth across the Ohio Valley, meaning some wild temperature rides. At times, we could see a 30 degree temp gradient setting up across Kentucky.

If we can get that front to focus farther north and west as one of those lows develops, strong to severe storms will be possible.

The European Model continues to look the most consistent in terms of totals and placement for the heaviest rains…

The GFS appears to be having some MAJOR feedback issues and that’s severely impacting the model’s placement of the heaviest rains. Shocking, I know.

I fully expect Flood Watches to go up today for much of the region. Here are your tracking toys…

 

I will have updates later today, so check back. Enjoy this historic day of warmth and take care.

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Time posted: 7:36 pm

First Call For Heavy Rainfall

Good evening, folks. April temps have engulfed the bluegrass state, with records and all time monthly records possible through Tuesday. This warm air will come with a price, with flooding rains an increasing likelihood in the coming days.

The heavy rain starts in the west Tuesday night, and will roll eastward into Wednesday. That sets off an extended run of showers and storms through the upcoming weekend. Here’s a look at my current rainfall forecast…

I will update that again tonight on WKYT-TV at 11. Until then, here are your tracking tools…

Enjoy the evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:20 pm

Updating The Flood Potential

Good afternoon, everyone. I wanted to drop by for a quick update on the high increasing threat for significant flooding from the lower Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley.

This has been a well telegraphed pattern for the past few weeks and is looking even more ominous as we get closer. Round of showers and storms start impacting Kentucky from west to east Tuesday night into Wednesday, with additional rounds coming through the weekend.

Given the amount of thunderstorms in the mix and a wavy, stalled out boundary, the forecast models will suffer from feedback issues. That means they go back and forth with where the axis of heaviest rains will fall. The last two runs of the GFS show this well…

Several inches of rain will likely fall across Kentucky through the upcoming weekend, leading to all modes of flooding. Rounds of flash flooding, general flooding and river flooding will likely show up. Major river flooding is very possible in this type of an environment.

I would imagine Flood Watches will go up much earlier than normal to give the public a big time heads up because it’s needed.

Here are your Monday tracking toys…

I will have a rainfall forecast on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm. See you guys back here for another update this evening. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 1:44 am

Warm Temps and A Flood Threat This Week

Good Monday, everyone. We are kicking off a very active week of weather across the Commonwealth of Kentucky and surrounding states. Record highs, strong storms and heavy rains are all on the weather menu. Given the already swollen waterways and wet ground, flooding is likely to become a big player.

As usual, let’s start with today and roll forward. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are zipping across the state as a warm front lifts to the north. Locally heavy downpours will be noted, along with very gusty winds…

 

By this afternoon, a lot of the stormy action will be to our north with temps surging into the upper 60s and lower 70s.

Tuesday is a crazy warm day, with daily record highs a pretty good bet. All-time monthly highs for February are also possible with temps close to the 80 degree mark.

Now, let’s talk about the flooding aspect. Our rivers are already running very high, with numerous rivers under a Flood Warning, including much of the Ohio…

Some significant flooding is already forecast along the Ohio River in northern and northeastern Kentucky, especially…

Those numbers may change in the coming days, depending on future rains.

My overall idea continues to highlight our entire region for the greatest potential for flooding over the next week or so…

You can see the shower and storm train lining up through the weekend…

Several inches of rain will fall across the area through the weekend, leading to the potential for rounds of flash flooding and general flooding. The rivers are especially vulnerable for significant flooding.

Some additional action is possible next week, as we get set to close out the month of February. Once into March, there’s the potential for late season winter weather developing across much of the country. The NAO and AO are forecast to go strongly negative…

Those two, in tandem, usually mean a cold pattern for our region. If the active storm pattern continues, things could get interesting. #teamspring

I will update things later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 2:15 pm

Sunday Afternoon Thoughts

Good afternoon, everyone. We are wrapping up the weekend on a very nice note out there with sun shine and temps heading into the 50s. The temperature trend for the next few days could be record setting, with a surge of April temps. Then, the rains set in.

Warmer moves in from the south tonight and will be accompanied by a few showers and thunderstorms. Once the warm front lifts to our north, temps take off with upper 60s and low 70s for highs on Monday. Winds will also crank during this time.

Tuesday is when record and all time February record highs may be challenged. Highs can hit 80 degrees in much of the state, as southwesterly winds continue to blow. Wow.

Showers and storms then increase from west to east Tuesday night through Thursday…

Those could be some very slow-movers, delivering several inches of rain on their own. The flood risk will ramp up during this time.

Additional waves of showers and storms will continue to target the region from late week into next weekend…

All modes of flooding are possible from Wednesday through next weekend. River flooding may continue to be an issue, and could turn into a much bigger issue.

The rounds of showers and storms may persist into the following week, which would not be a good thing.

What we are dealing with is a false start to spring, and I worry about the March pattern throwing more winter weather our way. Severe blocking is being forecast to develop, leading to a cold pattern trying to envelope much of the nation. This is even showing up on the Ensembles for early March…

No thanks. #teamspring

Enjoy the rest of your Saturday and take care.

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