Author Archives: Chris Bailey

Time posted: 1:51 am

Looking Toward November

Good Tuesday to one and all. A week from today will be November and that’s when most people really start thinking about winter weather. Right now, odds favor winter trying to get off to a fast start, and that may very well include the middle and end of November.

That said, we still have some more of October to get through. Gusty winds will be noted for the rest of this week with seasonal temps out there today. Wednesday’s numbers will spike toward the low 70s ahead of a cold front zipping in for Thursday. Scattered showers and some thunder will increase…


Winds will be VERY gusty as this system moves through. Lows by Friday morning could drop into the upper 30s across the central and east…


Did I mention winds will be gusty for the rest of October? That’s certainly the case this weekend as another cold front swings in here…


Temps can spike toward 70 ahead of the front, then drop quickly behind it. Upper 50s to low 60s for highs will be possible on Sunday. The weather for Halloween looks good.

I continue to bang the drum about a big pattern change as we roll into November. This is something I’ve been setting up for the past several weeks, and see no reason to change my thoughts. The pattern realigns with ridging going up along the west coast and a deep trough developing across the central and eastern parts of the country.

What the progression from the CFS…


Given the analog years I’ve come up, and the warm pool of water off the west coast into the Gulf of Alaska, that’s exactly the type of pattern that should develop.

The long range European is also seeing this same setup…


Nothing wrong with a little cold turkey… unless you prefer the wild turkey. Maybe we can get both this year? 😉

Make it a great day and take care.


Time posted: 1:19 am

Tracking Cold Fronts To End October

Good Monday, everyone. As hard as it is to believe, we have are in the final week of October. The fall colors are showing off across the bluegrass state, but gusty winds are going to do a number on them. These gusty winds will be ahead of several cold fronts tracking toward Kentucky.

A weak front is sliding by to our north, introducing slightly chillier air. Temps by Tuesday morning should drop into the 30s across central and eastern Kentucky…


Frost is a good possibility in these areas.

Winds will be very gusty through the week as another cold front moves in on Thursday. That will produce gusty showers across the area…


Patchy frost will be possible again by Friday morning. Another system will then arrive over the weekend, and bring some scattered showers. The GFS:




Temps ahead of it may hit 70 degrees, before crashing down into the 50s for Sunday. Lows by Halloween morning may be close to a freeze…


As of now, Halloween looks dry and windy with highs in the 60s.

If you’ve been reading this thing lately (and why wouldn’t you? :)), you know I’ve been talking about the potential for winter getting off to a fast start.

The CFS is going right toward a winter look as we get into November. Watch how the trough starts to deepen across the eastern part of the country…


That’s a pretty good look for winter weather lovers, even for the middle of November.

Make it a great day and take care.


Time posted: 1:17 am

A Few Fronts For The Week Ahead

Good Sunday, folks. We have some great looking weather across the region for the next couple of days. That said, cold fronts are lining up to have, at least, some impact on our weather for the week ahead.

Today is very windy with highs in the middle and upper 60s for many. A few clouds will be noted this afternoon as a weak front slides by to our north. This knocks the numbers down into the low and middle 60s for Monday. Clear skies Monday night should allow for areas of frost to form in the central and east…


Highs Tuesday will be back in the low and middle 60s.

A cold front arrives Wednesday night and Thursday with gusty showers on the increase…


As that pushes through, Thursday night could know the temps back into the 30s, and give us a chance at some patchy frost.

Another system is likely to move our way at some point this weekend into Halloween…


The models all play that differently as this system will be riding along quite the temperature gradient. Depending on how all this plays our, our temps could go really mild or really chilly. I’m not quite sure how to play that at the moment, but I’m leaning mild.

The longer range pattern continues to evolve toward one that can get winter off and running much earlier than normal. I’m already on record say I expect our first true snowfall to come before November is over.

Have a great Sunday and take care.


Time posted: 1:33 am

Normal Fall Weather Returns

Good Saturday, everyone. We finally have a rather typical fall pattern settling in across the bluegrass state. This air is going to keep temps on the pleasant side with some pretty nice weather days ahead. That said, this pattern continues to show some big signs of revving up. If you’re a fan of winter weather, you have to like the look going into November and December!

Let’s start with the weather out there today and roll forward. Temps will be in the 30s to start with some patchy frost. Highs will range from the low 60s west to mid 50s east. A mix of sun and clouds will be noted with winds still on the gusty side.

Sunday looks very windy as temps recover deep into the 60s. Basically, it’s a perfect fall day.

A weak front slides through early Monday, but shouldn’t have any moisture with it. It will knock the temps down to 60-65 for highs into Tuesday. There is a frost threat Tuesday into Wednesday mornings across central and eastern Kentucky.

Clouds will quickly increase late Wednesday with the possibility of showers and some thunder moving in. This is ahead of another wet weather maker into Thursday…


The GFS is indicating the potential for another round of heavy rains…


Temps on Thursday should be back in the 50s as winds switch around to the northwest.


I will touch on where we go from there with my next update. It’s getting close to two a days for the blog. 😉

Have a great Saturday and take care.


Time posted: 3:18 am

Tracking Changes and Looking Toward Winter

Good Friday to one and all. The big change is finally here with much colder air taking control of the pattern across our part of the world. This change delivered some beneficial rains to the region, and we have more out there today for some.

I promised you some winter talk, but I want to focus some on the short range before we get to that.

Gusty showers will be located across much of central and eastern Kentucky to start the day. Those showers will slowly taper from west to east into the afternoon, but the east may not shake the rain until evening. Highs will range from the low and mid 50s east to near 60 in the west. Winds are going to continue to be very gusty.

Temperatures by Saturday morning will drop into the mid and upper 30s for most of the state. I’m not expecting much in the way of frost as winds will likely stay a bit too high for that to happen. The rest of Saturday is windy with highs mainly in the 50s.

Sunday looks good with low and middle 60s ahead of a weak front passing by just to our north. That will knock the numbers back down a few degrees later Monday and Tuesday. I could even see a touch of frost developing by Tuesday morning.

The next system works in here later Wednesday and Thursday. This could be a rain maker for much of the region with a colder blast of air to follow…

canadianAs we look ahead toward the start of November, we find 3 of the big 4 indicies with a cold look…


A +PNA, -NAO and -AO are all favorable for increasing cold shots across the eastern half of the country. The EPO is still forecast to be positive. If we can get that to flip to negative… look out. There are indications we see that once into November.

Okay, let’s talk winter.

Snow cover across the Northern Hemisphere is off to a fast start…


That’s well above normal in many areas…


Dr. Judah Cohen has become very popular over the years for his forecasting of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the Polar Vortex. He has some interesting theories about the buildup of October snow cover in Eurasia and how it may impact the winter ahead. His forecast is for a cold central and eastern United States. Here’s the outlook and his summation…


Predicted winter surface temperature anomalies for the United States Dec-Jan-Feb 2016/17 in degrees Fahrenheit. The model is forecasting colder than normal temperatures for much of the Eastern United States, with warmer than normal temperatures for the Western United States. The model uses October Siberian snow cover, sea level pressure anomalies, predicted El Niño/Southern Oscillation anomalies, and observed September Arctic sea ice anomalies. October Siberian snow cover has so far this month advanced at an above normal rate. This is an indication of an increased probability of a weakened polar vortex or a sudden stratospheric warming, and a predominantly negative Arctic Oscillation during the winter and cold temperatures – especially east of the Mississippi. This is a preliminary forecast and not the official winter forecast as the model requires full monthly values for snow cover and sea level pressure anomalies. The forecast will be updated next month. Current forecast produced on October 19, 2016.

Credit: Judah Cohen, AER, Inc.

That’s a heckuva winter Dr. Cohen is going for. The above map looks like several of the analog years I’ve been hinting at over the past few months. One thing I feel pretty good about is a fast start to winter. I will be surprised if we don’t have our first true snowfall before November is finished.

Have a great Friday and take care.