Author Archives: Chris Bailey

Time posted: 1:58 am

Heavy Rain On The Way

Good Wednesday, everyone. We have a small break in the rainy weather, but don’t get too comfortable with it, a lot of rain is on the way. Rounds of rain return as early as Thursday, with the potential for even heavier rain this weekend and early next week.

All of this can lead to, at least, some local high water issues.

Ahead of the next round of rain comes a fairly nice day out there today. Some early day misty showers or drizzle is possible with clouds will hang tough all day. Highs will generally be in the 40s for most.

Rain and some thunder will quickly return from the southwest on Thursday and last into early Friday…

GFS 3

Another 1″-2″ of rain is possible with this system, with locally higher amounts for some in the west and central. Flash flooding is possible with this round.

The rain should move out pretty quickly on Friday as temps surge into the 60s. This carries us into the weekend and a much bigger system set to impact your weather. This comes as a huge upper level low spins into the region and closes off. The end result is a spiraling system of heavy rain, thunderstorms and wind.

The first round of rain comes as this system begins to come together on Saturday…

GFS 4

By Sunday and Monday, this bad boy really gets cranking with the GFS taking this system right on top of us…

GFS 5

The European Model is just a little farther south…

Euro

Once that system finally works to our east, Old Man Winter starts to flex some muscle. This continues to look to be another case of the second half of winter being the main show.

The cold look starts to show up by the middle and end of next week, with even colder air arriving a few days later. The Ensembles continue with a cold look…

GFS Temps

I will have updates later today. Until then, enjoy your Wednesday and take care.

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Time posted: 7:03 pm

Tuesday Evening Update

Good evening, everyone. I don’t have a whole lot of changes to my earlier thoughts as this pattern is loaded for bear in the coming days. Lots of wind and water is on the way to the bluegrass state.

Heavy rain and thunder moves back in on Thursday and can cause some local high water issues into Friday morning. That system sets the stage for a MUCH bigger system later this weekend into early next week. Look at this monster…

Euro

Watch how all the rain and storms spin around this system…

Euro 2

That’s from the European Model and it’s a look that can produce some flooding issues at some point. The latest rain forecast from the GFS continues to show 4″+ inches in parts of the region…

GFS

With a saturated ground and swollen waterways, flooding is a real possibility. Highs winds will also be a huge player during this time.

A winter look follows all that later next week …

GFS 2

A full update comes your way later tonight. Enjoy the evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:28 pm

Tuesday Afternoon Thoughts

Good afternoon, neighbors. Soggy weather rolls on across the bluegrass state with several areas picking up another inch or so of rain last night. Additional showers are out there this afternoon for some, and the pattern is loaded with more heavy rains later this week into the weekend.

This afternoon’s showers will be mainly across the south and east…

We get a chilly break from the rain on Wednesday, but things quickly turn soggy again by Thursday and Friday. Watch how another southern system roars in from the southwest…

GFS

That can easily drop another 1″-2″ of rain on top of Kentucky.

This sets the stage for some possible high water issues later this weekend into Monday. That’s when the big daddy system develops and slowly works across our region…

GFS 2

Heavy rain and thunderstorms will be noted, and this will fall on soaked ground with swollen waterways. The potential for high water is real and something we have to keep a very close eye on going forward.

The last 2 runs of the GFS show areas of 4″ rains through Monday…

GFS Rain

 

GFS Rain 2

Believe it or not, there is a good chance the model is underdone with the rain totals.

In addition to the heavy rain, the winds are going to be absolutely cranking. 50mph gusts will be possible at times with such a powerful low on top of us.

There is the chance for some flakes getting into the action by Monday as the upper low passes over us.

From there, winter takes control with another system moving in after the “big daddy”. Looking at the pattern, there’s a good chance to get snow on the ground before the month is over. That’s especially the case with these temps taking control in the final week of January…

GFS Temps

I will update things later today. Enjoy the rest of your day and take care.

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Time posted: 2:00 am

Hyperactive Pattern Continues

Good Tuesday, everyone. It’s another wet day across the bluegrass state as our latest round of showers and thunderstorms slowly pushes to our east. While we may get one dry day after it, don’t let it spoil you, this pattern is loaded with action as we roll ahead.

Old Man Winter is in hiding now, but has his eyes set on another back loaded winter. I’ll get to that in a bit.

Let us start with the conditions out there today. Gusty showers and thunderstorms will be noted this morning, with linger showers across the central and east this afternoon. Temps will spike into the 60s early, then fall behind a cold front late today…

Wednesday continues to look dry… did you heat that? DRY! Highs will be much chillier with readings in the 40s as clouds linger, though some sun tries to break through.

Don’t let Wednesday fool ya, more rain moves in quickly on Thursday and carries us into Friday. The showers and storms will increase from the southwest during this time…

GFS

That can easily drop another inch or two of rain.

All of this will be followed up by a massive slow-moving storm system later this weekend into early next week. This will be a monster of a storm bringing heavy rain, thunder and high winds to the region from late Saturday through Monday. Once the core of the upper low passes over us, it’s possible for some wet snows to try and get into the picture. Here’s the GFS…

GFS 3

The European Model is very similar…

Euro

Again, that’s a massive storm system taking shape. Any other air mass in front of this but the toasty one we have now, would have made for a serious WOW winter storm. SMH

All of this leads us into a familiar pattern we have seen in many of the past several winters. It’s one where the worst comes during the second half of winter and it has the potential to get downright nasty for much of the country.

The GFS Ensembles are pretty awesome to look at. Watch how the warm anomalies get pushed into Canada as the cold grows underneath into the United States. Then, watch how that warm blob in Canada gets wiped out with an arctic connection aimed right into the cold across the US…

GFS

Nothing like going from one extreme to the other in the blink of an eye! For my money, that’s one of the most telling animations I’ve posted on this blog.

I will update things later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

23 Comments

Time posted: 7:25 pm

Monday Evening Update

Good evening, folks. Rain has returned to the region and it will keep rolling on and off for much of the next week. This is one of the wetter patterns we have seen in a long long time, but I’m sure someone will yell drought as soon as we get one dry day. 🙂

Some rumbles of thunder may join the party overnight…

Wednesday looks like a chillier and drier day, but the clouds will be tough to shake. Enjoy it because more rain and thunder sweep in here from the southwest Thursday into Friday.

That will set the stage for a MUCH bigger system moving in for later this weekend into early next week. I’ve covered the upper level part of this for a while, now it’s time to start focusing on the lower levels. Expect this to spawn a massive slow-moving storm system right on top of our region. Look at this on the European…

Euro

Euro 2

High winds, thunderstorms, heavy rain giving way to high winds, colder air and the potential for a pocket of rain/snow or snow.

Cutoff lows can get a little wild and this one has some potential to do just that.

The next week can unleash another 2″-4″ of rain across the bluegrass state. This is pretty crazy.

I’ve also been talking about how the cutoff system likely gets the ball rolling toward another back loaded winter with cold and snow. Well, here’s what the Euro shows following that upper low by the middle of next week…

Euro 3

Given the block showing up over the top, watch for that system, similar to the one this weekend, to trend farther south.

The ensembles 5 day temp average to end January…

Euro 4

That’s cold!

Enjoy your evening and take care.

19 Comments