Author Archives: Chris Bailey

Time posted: 2:09 am

Storms On The Increase

Good Friday, folks. Showers and thunderstorms are increasing across the region and some of these can cause a few issues. Strong storms and heavy rainfall numbers are possible through the weekend, with the greatest chance coming Sunday.

Today’s storms will be scattered, but can pack a decent punch. Small hail, high winds and torrential downpours will be possible where storms form. These will also be LOL storms.

Here are the tracking toys for the day…


Saturday’s storms will pack similar conditions across the entire region. It’s Sunday that continues to give the best signal for strong storms and heavy rains. Deep moisture coming from the Gulf of Mexico will get drawn ahead of a cold front entering from the west.

This setup usually produces storms that are loaded with rain and lightning. We may see a cloudburst or two cause some flood issues…

The models all show areas of 2″+ of rain through the weekend. Here’s the Canadian…

The GFS…

Keep in mind, individual thunderstorms can drop a few inches of rain in no time flat!

The rain moves away for a much cooler Monday with highs in the upper 60s and low 70s. The dry weather won’t last for long as another round of strong storms zips in late Tuesday into early Wednesday. That’s being pushed by a very ugly looking system upstairs…

We may see a day or two with highs in the 60s because of that. Ouch.

This setup continues to be one that is transient, with no one pattern becoming established for long. That means rain and storms will continue to be the norm right on through the rest of the month. The GFS is showing some 5″ rains over the next few weeks…

At this point, I’m wondering if this doesn’t just keep rolling on right on into summer.

Make it a great Friday and take care.

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Time posted: 12:51 am

Looking Down The Weather Road

Good Thursday, everyone. We are rolling into a steamy and stormy pattern taking shape in the coming days. This setup can bring some heavy rains our way for part of the upcoming weekend. It’s all part of a very active weather pattern that continues to take shape.

In addition to the short-term pattern, I’m firing up the seasonal models to take us all the way through next winter.

Let’s start with the next few days before getting too far ahead of ourselves. Highs today will be back into the 80s with high humidity levels helping spawn a storm or two.

The thunderstorm risk will increase Friday into Saturday and some of the storms may be strong. With so much moisture in the air, watch for heavy downpours…

Deep tropical moisture then gets drawn into the region ahead of a cold front on Sunday. Local severe storms are possible, but the torrential rain threat is something we need to watch…

Dry and cool weather then moves in for Monday, but the dry part isn’t going to last long as this active pattern rolls on. Watch this big dip in the jet stream and how long it lingers…

That leads to additional systems bringing showers and storms to our region…

As of now, that’s not a good look as we roll into our Memorial Day weekend.

Let’s take a look way down the weather road and see what one of the seasonal models has to say. The JAMSTEC model has had a pretty decent track record in recent years, so I wanted to see how it was looking for the rest of the year.

It has a warm look for June-August…

You can see a small area of normal temps from the Midwest into the northern Ohio Valley, but’s that’s a pretty warm signal.

That warm signal then begins to really cool by the fall. Take a look at the September-November temps…

What about the winter ahead? A very cold signal is showing up on the model for December-February…

The progression of the seasons above is typical of an emerging weak El Nino, which looks likely to develop this year.

As mentioned, the JAMSTEC has been on a “hot” streak and correctly nailed this past winters warmth. Here’s the forecast issued from last May…

Not too bad.

Have a great day and take care.

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Time posted: 1:18 am

Another Active Pattern Taking Shape

Good Wednesday, everyone. Our run of summertime temperatures continues across the region, but steam and storms will eventually join the party. This will lead to an increase in storms over the weekend, with the potential for some more ugly weather showing up next week.

Isolated storms develop Thursday with better coverage of the storms showing up on Friday…

Any storm that goes up can be on the strong side with locally heavy rains. The same can be said for Saturday, before a big ramp of or shower and storm chances for Sunday. This happens as a cold front moves in from the west and interacts with a batch of moisture surging northward from the Gulf of Mexico…

Strong storms and heavy rains will be a good possibility during this time.

Temps come down behind this front, but a bigger push of cool air moves in for the middle and end of next week. This may be accompanied by another slow-moving upper level system…

That’s ugly and could produce more rounds of heavy rains…

On a side note, I recently got a chance to hang out with a special young man who uses this blog to keep his school informed about the weather. He puts together a daily weather briefing and loves every minute of it. Click on the link below to see our meeting…

I put a lot of time and effort into this blog, but people like Michael make it all worth while! 🙂

Have a great day and take care.

9 Comments

Time posted: 1:26 am

Stormy Changes On The Way

Good Tuesday to one and all. We continue to be in a July-like pattern here in the middle of May, but things will change quickly by the weekend. This is when we get into a setup featuring more thunderstorms, followed by a much cooler look for next week.

Highs today and Wednesday will generally hit the mid and upper 80s for most of the state. A local 90 degree thermometer can’t be ruled out as skies stay mainly sunny.

A storm or two begins to pop by Thursday as moisture starts to increase. This will lead to a much better threat for some storms into Friday and Saturday…

A few of the storms can be strong, producing heavy rainfall.

A cold front then targets the region by Sunday with showers and storms becoming much more widespread. Here’s the GFS…

The European Model agrees…

This will be followed by much cooler air for the first half of next week, with another cooler shot lined up after that…

The progressive look to the pattern suggests we remain pretty active in terms of shower and thunderstorm threats. Check out the GFS animation through the end of the month…

Make it a great Tuesday and take care.

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Time posted: 12:51 am

A Brief Period Of Summer Temps

Good Monday to one and all. We are rolling into the warmest week of the year, so far, as we get a little preview of summer temperatures. While stout, this warm weather isn’t going to last long as thunderstorms crash the party later this week, unleashing another big dip in the jet stream next week.

The weather from Today through Wednesday looks awesome. Highs will reach the mid and upper 80s with mostly sunny skies. Enjoy!

Thunderstorms will begin to show up by Thursday and Friday with an increase in the action this weekend. The latest model runs are a littler stormier than the past few days, giving us a better chance at heavy rains…

The pattern next week looks to do a little flip with a deep trough trying to develop across the eastern part of the country…

That would knock our temps way back down to below normal readings for a while.

This back and forth pattern is an active one for the coming few weeks…

It’s gonna be very difficult for any one pattern to fully lock in anytime soon.

Later this week, we will take a look at some of the seasonal models for the summer, fall and winter. Those are always fun to look at, especially a few who’ve been on a hot streak of late.

Enjoy your day and take care.

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