Author Archives: Chris Bailey

Time posted: 7:18 pm

Saturday Evening Update

Good evening, everyone. We are putting the wraps on another nice looking spring day across the Commonwealth. This nice weather is still cooler than normal, but we will take it after what we’ve had of late. As we get ready for the final full week of April, another round of ugly is on he way. Sigh.

Sunday will find clouds thickening, but much of the region stays dry. Showers and some thunder will develop across the west and south later in the day. That action then increases Sunday night and Monday, bringing a heavy rain threat in here. That’s from our southern system working through the region, with another system coming in behind it for Tuesday and Wednesday.

The models continue to increase the rain numbers showing up…

Some local high water issues can’t be ruled out, especially in the west and south. Temps through the duration of the two events will run blow normal.

Speaking of below normal, the end of the week into the weekend continues to look crazy chilly for the end of April. This comes from a deep trough digging in here, bringing another round of showers and wind with it…



That’s one ugly setup, with flakes potentially flying not too far from here. We will have to watch and see how it all evolves in the coming days.

Temps still look to recover as we head into Kentucky Derby week. My early impression is for a nice warm up, with thunderstorms making an appearance. At some point this may, we are likely to blow the lid off on this severe weather season.

Enjoy the rest of your day and take care.


Time posted: 1:30 am

Looking For Some Changes

Good Saturday, everyone. The weekend is off and running with very nice weather across our part of the world. The nice isn’t going to hang out long, as a series of ugly weather makers roll through Kentucky in the coming week. That means rain chances go up and temps go down.

In the longer term, I’m seeing signs of hope for Kentucky Derby Week. 🙂

Today will feature a mix of sun and clouds with temps hitting the 60s for the entire state. Those clouds will continue to thicken on Sunday, with rain moving in to the west and far south later in the afternoon and evening. That surge of rain is from out slow moving southern storm system and will continue to throw rain at us into Monday. Another system then dives in from the northwest by Tuesday and Wednesday, keeping showers around…

The heaviest rains during this time will be across the southern half of the state…

Gusty winds and below normal temps will be common as both systems roll through.

The setup for the end of the week into the weekend isn’t looking much better, and  at actually look worse. Check out this ugly system showing up on the European…

The GFS is very similar and even some… Some… I can’t even…

That’s a very cold look coming from another deep trough across the eastern half of the country…

As that’s happening, bigger changes are going on in the Northern Hemisphere, leading to the possibility of the pattern flipping to warm as we head into May. Watch how the western ridge comes east, with the jet steam allowing the west to turn chilly for a change…

A pattern like that could bring 80s in the days leading up to Derby…

Keep your fingers crossed on that pattern actually developing!! 🙂

Make it a great day and take care.


Time posted: 1:01 am

Some Ugly Showing Up Next Week

Good Friday, folks. We have finally made it to the end of the week, with the weekend just hours away from officially beginning. Much of that weekend forecast is looking pretty good, but there’s some ugly ready to roll back in here late in the weekend into much of next week.

Let’s break down the Good… The Bad… and The Ugly.


Sunny skies will be noted today and through much of Saturday. Highs this afternoon hit the upper 50s and low 60s for much of the state. Highs should reach the low and middle 60s on Saturday.


Clouds will thicken up Saturday night into early Sunday. Rain arrives across the west and south by late Sunday. Temps will still be in decent shape ahead of the rain, with 60-65 before the drops fall.


Two slow-moving systems will roll across our part of the world through much of next week. That means the potential for rounds of showers and gusty winds…

Temps will also continue to be cooler than normal through next week…

If we look down the road toward the last few days of April into the start of May, the trend continues to look chilly. The 5 day average departures on the European Ensembles…

Have a wonderful Friday and take care.


Time posted: 7:58 pm

Thursday Evening Thoughts

Good evening, gang. It’s another colder than normal day that we are wrapping up across the bluegrass state. This continues to be part of our spring of discontent, featuring a lot of below normal numbers and record setting snows. Can we change this up anytime soon?

Temps tonight will head below freezing in most of the state, with some upper 20s leading to another freeze. The rest of Friday looks really good as highs make a run into the upper 50s and low 60s. Skies will be mostly sunny, so enjoy a nice start to the weekend.

The rest of the week had a decent look to it, especially Saturday. Highs on Saturday should reach 60-65 for most of Kentucky. Clouds will slowly increase from west to east, ahead of a slow-moving system rolling across the southern Mississippi Valley. That system will then throw some rain our way later Sunday into next week.

Watch how a cold front dropping in from the northwest, combines forces with that southeastern storm, lifting it up along the east coast…



That’s a setup you would normally see in winter. Shocking, I know. It will lead to a continuation of the colder than normal temps through the rest of April. Sigh.

I will look toward early May and a possible “flip” in the pattern with my next update. Make it a good one and take care.


Time posted: 1:24 am

Chilly Pattern Doesn’t Want To End

Good Thursday, everybody. After a one day break in the colder than normal pattern, the chill is back in the air. It’s a chill that won’t be in a big hurry to leave as we continue with our not so spring-like April. As a matter of fact, the setup for next week is looking a little ugly. Blah.

Let’s start with today and the potential for sprinkles or flurries. The best chance is across the northern and eastern parts of the state this morning…

That action moves away with highs hitting the upper 40s east and middle 50s west. Winds will still be gusty, adding an extra chill to the air.

Speaking of a chill, temps may drop back into the 20s by Friday morning for another freeze. The rest of Friday looks really, really good with highs in the upper 50s and low 60s across the state. Sunny skies continue.

Saturday looks to feature clouds on the increase with temps between 60 and 65. The forecast period from Friday into early next week is still a little murky. A bowling ball area of low pressure works across the south, but may get close enough for some rains…

Temps are very tricky. Outside of the rain and clouds, temps will be deep into the 60s. Under the clouds and rains, temps stay in the 50s.

You can see how same low tries to merge with a deepening trough diving into the country by the middle of next week. That’s not exactly a very pretty look as we get set to close out April, not that it’s any different from the rest of the month.

The milder air will continue to make some intrusions in here through the first few days of May, leading us back into a stormy setup. That shows up on the GFS rainfall map…

Make it a terrific Thursday and take care.