Author Archives: Chris Bailey

Time posted: 2:28 am

Severe Weather and Heavy Rain Tracker

Good Sunday and Happy Father’s Day. It’s supposed to be a big day for the dads, but mother nature looks to steal the show out there today. Severe thunderstorms and flooding rains are possible from this afternoon through Monday morning.

After this stormy pattern, things get interesting later next week. I will get to that in after a breakdown of today’s setup:

  • Storms today can pack a decent severe weather punch with damaging winds and large hail
  • The prime time for severe weather is from late afternoon through the evening hours
  • Torrential rains will accompany the storms through early Monday. This may setup up a flash flood situation across parts of central and eastern Kentucky.
  • Some areas may see local 3″+ amounts in a short amount of time.

Here are the tracking toys for the day…


Current Watches
Current Watches

Possible Watch Areas
Current MDs

Temps will be much better as this system moves away later Monday. Tuesday looks like a fantastic weather day!

The threat for a few storms will move back into the picture by the middle and end of the week as toasty temps surge back in.

What happens in the Gulf? We’ve talked about this being a spot to watch for over the past few weeks and it looks like that thought process was right. The Tropical Prediction Center expects development there in the coming days…

As expected, the models vary on where this goes after it develops. But, the models are now coming around to similar solutions to what the Canadian has been showing for the past week or so.

The new Canadian develops this into a potent Gulf storm, then brings what’s left of it into our region. Watch the deep trough that digs in behind this…

If that solution verifies, it would mean quite a bit of rain for us. Check out the cold air coming in behind this…

Remember the all the cold in Canada I was showing you a few days ago? Well… there it comes.

The GFS is similar to what the Canadian is cooking, but a little farther east with the tropical system…

it also shows a monster trough digging into the region.

The European Model continues to bring some of that moisture our way by next weekend. That’s when it meets up with another deep trough digging in…

If you’re a weather buff, that map has to excite you. Why? Well, we have a tropical system in the Gulf with the 540 thickness line into northern Minnesota. I honestly cannot think of another time in summer when I have seen a model forecast the 540 line that far south. I’m not saying it hasn’t happened, I just don’t recall seeing such a thing. That’s a lot of cold air coming south our of Canada!

I will update things as needed later today. Happy Father’s Day and take care.

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Time posted: 2:15 am

Severe Storms and Heavy Rain Possible Sunday

Good Saturday, folks. It’s another steam bath of a day across the bluegrass state, but a cold front is going to change that in a few days. To get from the steamy to the better temps, something has to give. Strong to severe storms with heavy rains are a good bet Sunday into early Monday.

Highs out there today will top out from the upper 80s to low 90s with heat index values above that. Watch for a few storms to go up and I can’t rule out a strong storm or two…

The storms coming Sunday into Sunday night may be severe with damaging winds and large hail. The Storm Prediction Center has much of the region in the risk area…

There will also be an increased flash flood potential through Monday morning. These storms can dump a general 1″-3″ of rain, with locally higher amounts possible. That’s especially true across the east, where flooding issues have been already been observed in recent days.

Much cooler air will finally settle in early next week. The numbers on Monday are well below normal…

Highs stay in the 70s…

Tuesday’s weather actually looks really good with pleasant temps and mainly dry weather.

That changes for the middle of the week as a surge of heat tries to surge back in. Ahead of that heat will likely be a few rounds of thunderstorms…

You can also see the potential tropical system down in the Gulf. The European Model actually draws some of that moisture in here late next week, ahead of another deep trough digging into the eastern half of the country. The European Model has a big blast of cool with that…

Have a great day and take care.

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Time posted: 1:18 am

A Steamy and (Sometimes) Stormy Weekend

Good Friday, everyone. Our weekend is upon us and it looks like more of the same across the bluegrass state of Kentucky. Steamy temps and stormy skies look to continue, with the greatest storm threat coming to wrap up the weekend on Sunday.

The weather to start the weekend will find temps ranging from the mid and upper 80s east to the low 90s west. Isolated storms will be possible…

We will need to watch and see if we can get a complex of storms to develop tonight and early Saturday. That’s something that happens from time to time in this type of setup. Otherwise, isolated storms will be with us Saturday with similar temps to what we have today.

A strong cold front drops in here Sunday and early Monday with a big increase in storms. Some of the storms may be strong and put down torrential rains…

You will also notice a tropical system showing up across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. That’s similar to what the Canadian has been showing with recent runs and continues to show this…

The European Model really develops that into a big system working west across the Gulf of Mexico and toward Texas…

As that happens, check out all the cold air up in Canada. Wow! That is quite the contrast across North America.

What does it all mean for us? Cooler air works in early next week, but we will need to watch and see what happens with the system in the Gulf. Tropical systems down there usually have a huge influence on the overall pattern across the states.

Have a great Friday and take care.

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Time posted: 2:07 am

Tracking More Storms Today

Good Thursday, folks. We continue to deal with additional rounds of thunderstorms, causing some issues across our part of the world. These storms may be strong to severe and put down torrential rains, leading to local flash flood issues.

The storms today will continue to come at us in waves. Each wave will have the potential to spawn hail and high winds. The main concern still comes from the torrential rains and potential flash flooding.

Here are the tracking tools for the day…


Only isolated storms will be around for Friday as toasty temps take over again. There’s a quick surge of even higher temps lurking just to our west to start the weekend, there could be a round of strong storms around that late Friday night into early Saturday…

The main action this weekend comes later Sunday into Sunday night ahead of a cold front dropping in. This may fire up a line of strong to severe storms with more heavy rains…

Much cooler air comes in behind that, but the front may check up very close to us. That could spell trouble with more rounds of storms developing along the boundary for the middle and end of next week. The European Model is showing this well, with a potential tropical system moving across the Gulf…

The poor Canadian is still going gangbusters with that system and brining up all the way up the east coast with a big cool shot for us behind it…

Have a great day and take care.

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Time posted: 1:19 am

Rounds Of Storms Continue

Good Wednesday to one and all. Thunderstorms have been rumbling across the state over the past few days and we have more on the way. The tropical air mass in place is adding some fuel to the heavy rain fire from these storms, and that could cause some additional issues.

The storms that are out there can drop a few inches of rain in a short amount of time today and Thursday. Local high water issues will be possible both days. The concern will be for storms that move over the same areas, upping the true flash flood potential.

Track today’s action…

Additional storms will be possible Friday into early Saturday, but we may see the coverage come down just a bit. Still, any storm that goes up will have some very heavy rains. Temps will also be pretty toasty, still.

Later this weekend, a potent cold front drops in from the northwest with additional showers and thunderstorms. This line of storms can be strong or severe with another flash flood threat…

Much cooler air comes in behind that, but another system may dive in from the northwest a few days later. That could bring more showers and storms.

The Canadian still tries to develop a tropical system, but now the only model showing this…

Regardless of a true tropical system, the tropics are going to keep sending a lot of moisture our way. This is a lot of rain showing up on the GFS Ensembles over the next few weeks…

Make it a great day and take care.

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