Author Archives: Chris Bailey

Time posted: 7:25 pm

Monday Evening Update

Good evening, everyone. We are wrapping up a day of near record highs across the bluegrass state. Readings hit the middle 70s in some areas and we have more mild weather ahead. It will come with a price, with showers rolling in the next few days.

Once beyond this, big changes are ahead for the weekend and this sets up a very busy pattern.

Showers will roll in from west to east Tuesday into early Wednesday. This system has the chance to put down some heavy rains by Tuesday night and the models show a few spots pushing an inch…

NAM

Temps ahead of the rain on Tuesday can reach 70, then quickly drop as showers increase. Wednesday will be “cooler” with readings in the low 60s for the east, but near 70 in the west.

Thursday into Friday can see temps go crazy on us. The models have the numbers going DEEP into the 70s…

Euro

80 degree temps will be possible with enough sunshine. Winds will be VERY gusty as a strong storm system rolls across the plains and toward the Great Lakes Friday into Saturday. This setup can mean some strong or severe storms ahead of it…

GFS

Much colder air comes in behind that system with highs in the upper 30s and low 40s by Saturday. The GFS also shows a few snowflakes wrapping in here early Saturday…

GFS snow

This pattern is super busy with very cold shots diving into the country, and warm air trying to hang tough across the southeast. Watch this back and forth over the next few weeks…

gfs

Warm, cold… Warm, cold… That’s a setup that puts the mean storm track right on top of our region, and should mean a lot of precipitation. Everything from strong storms to snows will be possible depending on how each individual storm track goes.

Enjoy your evening and take care.

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Time posted: 2:01 am

Mild Weather Dominates The Week

Good Monday, everyone. Spring it doing its thing much earlier than normal across Kentucky and surrounding states. Near record highs are possible today and again later this week, but this warmth may come with a price. The pattern is set to become a busy one with cold air intrusions running up against our budding spring.

Low clouds and some fog may be around early today, with afternoon sun taking over. Lots of highs will be near 70, with low 70s showing up for areas getting in on more sun. Records will be challenged.

Tuesday will find clouds increasing with a weak system crossing the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible…

Euro

Some leftover action will then take us into Wednesday morning and that will keep the numbers down just a bit. I don’t know how we will survive with highs ONLY in the 60s. šŸ˜‰

70 degree temps or better will be possible Thursday into Friday ahead of a potent storm system. That will roll from the plains states into the Great Lakes, draggingĀ a cold front across our region. This could lead to a few booming thunderstorms.

The top 15Ā historical setupsĀ to the one being shown by the GFS show a severe weather signal for this region…

CIPS

That’s still 4 days away, so we have a while to see if this signal grows or fades. Dewpoint temps aren’t very impressive with this setup, so that may hinder the threat.

Behind it, colder air blows in for the weekend with the potential for a snowflake or two.

One signal that continues to grow is the precipitation one over the next 2 weeks. I put together a map over the weekend showing how we may find ourselves in the battle zone between very cold and very warm weather. That leads to an active storm track across our region.

The medium range forecast models areĀ hinting at this. Check out one of the recent runs from the GFS for the next 2 weeks…

GFS Rain

Obviously, that was an extreme run, but it gives us an idea ofĀ  potential busy storm track across our part of the world.

I will throw you another update later today. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 2:22 am

Springing Into A Very Active Pattern

Good Sunday to one and all. After some spring showers, it’s time to get back into another full blown spring temperature pattern across the state. This may set record highs in the week ahead, but it’s also kicking off a very busy weather pattern across our region of the world. There’s no shortage of action showing up as we head into March.

Today’s weather will feature clouds slowly clearing out, leaving a big temperature swing from west to east. The east may stay in the low 60s, while the west flirts with 75. The faster your skies clear, the warmer your back porch thermometer gets.

Monday is the day records may fall. low to mid 70s look like a safe bet with partly sunny skies. Early April temps than hang tough through Friday with just a chance for a scattered thunderstorm or two by mid-week. Additional records may fall on any day featuring enough sunshine.

A potent storm system then develops in the plains states and works toward the Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley on Friday. This could bring some big time thunderstorms to the region…

EuroMuch colder air comes in behind that system and we could even see some snowflakes this weekend.

This storm is likely to setup a classic seasonal battle between spring and winter. The seasonal transition toward spring will be met with Old Man Winter firing deep cold shots into the Midwest and plains states. Kentucky may go back and forth between the two and that spells some busy times…

Special 2

Big storm systems will fire up in the battle zone and that can bring lots of different conditions our way, based on each individual storm track. Severe weather and snow chances are there, depending on where each system goes. One thing is for sure, we are in the line of fire for heavy amounts of precipitation over the next few weeks. The European Ensembles precipitation show that flow right out of the western Gulf of Mexico…

Euro 2I will update things later today. Enjoy your Sunday and take care.

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Time posted: 5:49 pm

Saturday Evening Post

Good evening, gang. Showers continue to press across the state, taking the edge off our spring temperatures. This action gets out of the way early Sunday, leaving us with another spring surge in temps for the week ahead. That will set the stage for a powerful storm by Friday with much colder temps to follow.

The showers tonight will actually be steady for some areas and that lasts into Sunday morning. The models are a little slower with the clearing on Sunday and that may lead to cooler temps than I thought in the central and east.

Track the evening showers…

Temps for Monday surge toward record highs in the 70-75 degree range. Strong southwesterly winds kick in ahead of a weak system moving through Tuesday and early Wednesday. That may touch off a scattered shower or thunderstorm as temps stay mild.

Thursday looks very warm as we get set for a pattern changing storm. This is one heck of a temperature change…

GFS GIf

That clash of the seasons will lead to a potent storm system with strong/severe storms ahead of it, and cold air and snowflakes behind it…

GFS

We will need to keep a close eye on the severe threat for Friday.

Spring and winter will then start to fight it out again with intrusions of cold bumping up against bubbles of spring air. The end result will be a very active storm track across our region. You can see that on the GFS Ensembles precipitation map…

GFS Rain

Moisture is aimed from the western Gulf right into the bluegrass state.

Have a great evening and take care.

6 Comments

Time posted: 1:48 am

Some Showers Join Our Spring Party

Good Saturday, everyone. If April showers bring May flowers, what will today’s February showers bring for March? Given how warm our temperatures have been, I think that’s a valid question. šŸ™‚ We have even warmer air on the way in the days ahead, but colder changes are showing up by next weekend.

Today’s an interesting day in terms of temps. Readings range from the 60s outside of showers to the 50s for those getting in on the drops. The shower action increases this afternoon into the evening…

The rain moves away later tonight with clouds lingering into the start of Sunday. As the clouds scoot on out of there, sunny skies take over with thermometers really taking off. Highs range from the low and mid 70s in the west, to the mid and upper 60s in the east.

Monday looks even warmer with highs in the 70s for the entire region. That’s when record highs could fall.

A system across the south will then throw showers and thunderstorms our way late Tuesday into Wednesday…

GFS

With clouds and some thunder around, temps will come down some, but still be very mild.

A potent storm system then moves our way later Friday into Saturday, and this looks like a pattern changer and one that can be a severe weather maker. Here’s the GFS…

GFS 2

The Canadian…

Canadian

Strong thunderstorms and gusty winds will be followed by colder temps and maybe some snowflakes. That should help take us into a colder pattern to end February and begin March. It’s also one that is loaded with storm systems impacting our region. You can clearly see that on the precipitation totals over the next 2 weeks…

GFS Rain

I will have another update later today. Make it a good day and take care.

12 Comments