Author Archives: Chris Bailey

Time posted: 1:48 am

Heavy Rain On The Way

Good Wednesday, weather friends. We are halfway through the month of August, with very little change in the overall wet pattern we’ve been in all year. It’s pretty amazing to watch the consistency of the rain and storms impacting the bluegrass state and we have much more left in the tank.

Showers and storms begin to pick it up a few notches from west to east today. These storms are ahead of a system slowly rolling into the region from the west. The best chance for scattered storms today will be across the west and central parts of the state, with a lower chance in the east. Some of the storms across the western half of the Commonwealth could be strong or locally severe.

Here’s the Severe Weather Outlook from the SPC:

Here are your friendly storm trackers to keep you company…

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Storms increase on Thursday, with local severe weather a possibility once again:

As a system moves into the Ohio Valley later this week, it slows down and hangs out through the coming weekend. Additional waves of showers and storms will work across the region, bringing the increased threat for high water issues…

I don’t like this setup and it’s one that can produce cloudbursts, leading to flash flooding.

A potent cold front then rolls our way by Tuesday of next week. Showers and strong storms will likely develop ahead of the boundary. That could be another high water maker in our region…

Much cooler air then comes in behind that for the middle and end of the week. A taste of fall is likely in the air.

Make it a great day and take care.

3 Comments

Time posted: 1:17 am

Rounds Of Storms Ready To Increase

Good Tuesday, folks. A few isolated showers and storms continue to push across the state, but it’s about to get much more active. Another potent system will cross the Ohio Valley for the middle and end of the week, bringing fairly widespread shower and storm action.

At the beginning of summer, I said this would be a “Summer of storms”. Well… I think that nickname was very appropriate as the stormy pattern will not go away!

Highs today are in the 80s with a mix of sun and clouds. Isolated showers and storms will develop once again, especially in the afternoon…

The showers and storms begin to ramp it up a bit by Wednesday afternoon as another low works into the region. Those showers and storms then come at is in rounds Thursday into Friday…

Locally heavy rains will be likely with some of the storms.

From there, we track another system set to impact the region over the weekend, with one more slated to arrive behind that into early next week…

The models have been consistently showing a pretty good trough pushing that second system into the region next week. They do vary on the depth of the cool shot coming behind it, with some of the latest GFS runs looking pretty darn cool. Check out the below normal numbers…

We will see how all that shakes out over the next week or so, but the signal has been there for a while now.

The CFS likes that cooler than normal signal through the end of September…

That same run keeps the wet signal rolling on through the same period…

That’s a lot of above normal rainfall for much of the country. Guess we will have to keep mowing our multiple times a week through the fall. 🙁

Make it a great day and take care.

2 Comments

Time posted: 1:18 am

It’s Another Active Week Of Weather

Good Monday and welcome to another busy week of weather for the bluegrass state. A couple of systems will be rolling our way, bringing additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms to the region. We will have a breakdown of those systems and a look ahead toward winter, courtesy of one of the more trusted seasonal models.

The scattered storms out there today shouldn’t be terribly widespread, with the best chance across the eastern half of the state…

This action will continue into Tuesday as the current upper low slowly moves to our east. That opens the door for the next system to influence our weather by Wednesday and Thursday. Guess what that brings? If you said more showers and thunderstorms… Congrats. Take a look…

Once again, the atmosphere looks primed to deliver some decent rains to our region. Additional high water issues will be possible. Once that system moves east… The assembly line throws the next one into the region for the weekend into early next week…

That one is being pushed by a very healthy trough digging into the central and eastern parts of the country. This could bring temps that go well below normal…

As we look down long and winding weather road toward winter, the European Seasonal Model now goes out through the month of February. This model has a lot of respect in the weather world, so it’s something I tend to give a little more credence to.

What I’m showing you is the 500mb anomaly averages for the entire months of December, January and February. This indicates where the troughs and ridges tend to set up in the means, and one can infer colder than normal weather in the troughs, and warmer than normal weather in the ridges.

December shows the mean trough settling into our region…

Notice how it hangs tough right on top of us into January…

By February, the trough becomes more elongated into the east, but it’s still there…

The Euro Seasonal is basically showing a setup for what would be a pretty harsh winter around here and has a throwback look to it.

It’s also interesting to note how the model looks pretty similar to what the JAMSTEC has been showing of late. I posted those maps a few weeks back and should get a new run of that seasonal model this week. Of course, I will share that as soon as I get it. 🙂

Another interesting note… This pretty much mirrors my initial winter thoughts I put out in early July: Looking Down The Weather Road

Have a great Monday and take care.

3 Comments

Time posted: 1:25 am

This Isn’t A Typical Look For August

Good Sunday, everyone. We have another upper level low spinning across the Ohio Valley and into the Mid Atlantic states into early next week. That’s something you don’t typically see for this time of year and we have several similar systems likely to impact us in the coming weeks. All of this leads to additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms.

In addition to the near-term outlook, I’m also going to focus a little more on the fall ahead. 🙂

As always we begin with the precious present. A mix of sun and clouds will be noted with the chance for scattered showers and storms going up. You know the drill…

Watch how our upper level low slowly spins across the region and into the Mid-Atlantic states into the early part of the week, with another system moving in from the west…

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop in that scenario. Shocking, I tell ya!

Rain chances will then ramp up even more for the middle and end of the week as that next system wanders across our part of the world…

This likely introduces a deep trough across the eastern half of the country that could very well deliver a nice shot of early fall air…

Did someone say fall?

In terms of Autumn, I will be releasing my personal outlook over the next week or so, but it’s fun to see how the seasonal models are playing things. Here’s what the CAS Model is cooking…

September

That’s a cooler than normal and wetter than normal start to fall.

October

It keeps the cooler than normal look, but turns things a little dry.

November

That shows temps returning to normal or a little above with an active storm track into the plains states.

Again, that’s just what one seasonal model is showing for the fall. With a developing El Nino, a lot of how the fall evolves will depend on how quickly the El Nino can get established, and just how strong it can get.

Guess what I’m going to talk about in tomorrow’s post? WINTER!! 🙂

Have a great Sunday and take care.

3 Comments

Time posted: 1:28 am

Another Upper Low Spins Overhead

Good Saturday to one and all. This Summer has given us a few anomalous upper level lows spinning across the region and is throwing another our way this weekend. You simply don’t see big upper level lows during the summer around here, especially with this frequency. If you’re a fan of snow and cold, you would like to see this pattern persist into fall and winter. Can it? Hmmm

Let’s begin with our Saturday and roll forward. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are blowing up once again, and have the capability of putting down torrential rains. Local high water issues are certainly a possibility…

The upper low wants to hang around into early next week…

That would keep scattered showers and storms going, with another upper low ready to sweep in behind that for the second half of next week. As a matter of fact, additional upper level systems show up over the next few weeks. This animation does not look like something from the heart of August…

That’s actually pretty crazy to see at any time of year, let alone in August and would lead to temps averaging out cooler than normal, with much above normal rainfall. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms look to be common during this time.

The Ensembles continue to be on board with a lot of real estate across the country coming in with temps below normal. Here’s the 5 day average deep into August…

Fall talk comes your way with the next update!!

Enjoy your Saturday and take care.

3 Comments