Author Archives: Chris Bailey

Time posted: 12:16 pm

A Quick Update

Good afternoon, folks. I wanted to drop by for a very quick midday update on where this pattern is going for the rest of the week and in the run up to Christmas. I don’t have much time, so let’s get busy.

Winds are going to increase this afternoon and evening and may hit 40mph in some of the gusts. This happens as a strong clipper works by just to our north. That’s where the accumulating snows will be, but a few flakes or sprinkles may sneak into the north and northeast this afternoon…

Overnight, the front drops in with a few flurries or maybe a light snow shower. The best chance is across the east.

Another flurry maker moves in on Friday as temps stay well below normal.

The system coming in later this weekend appears to be splitting into two systems. The first part arrives on Sunday with chilly showers…

The second part comes out by Monday night and Tuesday and keeps trending much colder…

The colder trend continues to show up, as expected, on the operational models. While they offer big swings from one run to the other, the trend for cold and wintry continues to be there as we get closer to Christmas.

The GFS by the end of next week into Christmas weekend…

With arctic cold taking over much of the country, a southeast ridge is going to try to fight with it. That spells a very active setup across the eastern half of the country, with storm systems rolling between the cold and mild. You can see the theme of this pattern on the new GFS through Christmas week…

Don’t take individual systems and timing to heart, I’m just showing that to illustrate the overall pattern.

Oh, and the cold is impressive…

What a far cry from the last 3 Decembers around here!

I will update again this evening. Enjoy the day and take care.

16 Comments

Time posted: 1:48 am

Active Pattern Takes Shape As We Head Toward Christmas

Good Wednesday, everyone. It’s a day full of gusty winds as another clipper drops into the Ohio Valley. This may unleash a few snowflakes to the region by Thursday, but the majority of the snow stays just to our north and east. In the longer range, it’s one active looking setup taking shape for Christmas weekend into Christmas week.

Let’s begin with today and roll forward. Winds out there may reach 40mph or greater at times this afternoon and evening. Those winds are head of our clipper, which brings heavy snows for areas to our north. As it moves east of us early Thursday… a few snowflakes try to press in…

Here’s regional radar to track this system…

Another system moves across the region on Friday bringing the potential for some flurries or light snow showers. Winds will be gusty with the cold air remaining.

That cold air gets pushes out on Saturday as temps soar deep into the 40s and flirt with 50. Then, a southern system moves in  with rain by Sunday…

That may end a bit of a mix later Monday as colder air scoots back in. The GFS then shows the cold digging in for Tuesday and Wednesday…

Yesterday, I made a map showing the potential for a wild and wintry setup for Christmas Weekend into Christmas Week…

The latest GFS jumps right to that solution…

That setup can put our region in heart of the winter weather potential, just in time for Christmas. Watch how the bitter cold presses in and slows down…

Let’s talk about the Madden Julian Oscillation and the potential impact it has on our weather. The MJO is basically an index tracking the tropical precipitation anomalies, generally in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. The placement and intensity of the MJO plays a big role in the overall weather across North America. The current MJO forecast is for it to enter into Phases 7, 8 and 1 over the next 2 weeks…

Those phases offer a very cold look in our part of the world…

If you’ve followed me for years, you know my affinity for following the Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO). It really helped me nail the 2013-14 winter, and it’s showing a similar look to that winter, which was one of my analog years. The current EPO is forecast to become so negative, it’s off the chart…

A negative EPO is usually a very cold signal across the eastern half of the country. That’s about as negative as you will ever see a forecast for it.

I will have additional updates later today. Make it a wonderful Wednesday and take care.

13 Comments

Time posted: 7:23 pm

Tuesday Evening Update

Good evening, folks. Gusty northwesterly winds are slowing down some, but bigger blast of wind is on the way for Wednesday. That is ahead of another clipper zipping quickly across the Ohio Valley.

This clipper brings a swath of heavy snow just to our north Wednesday into Wednesday night. As it passes by, northwest winds can spawn a few snow flurries or snow showers into Thursday morning…

Winds are going to absolutely crank Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. Those gusts may top 40mph. Check out the forecast from the NAM…

Tie down the Christmas decorations!! 🙂

The interesting looking system for Friday is a lot less interesting today. This may only be a flake maker as it rolls through the region on Friday, with a lot of wind likely once again.

Why is this thing looking less interesting? It’s likely because the system coming behind it is speeding up. The European has it arriving by Saturday night, with rain breaking out from southwest to northeast…

The pattern early next week continues to trend colder, but I’m focused on a potentially super active setup for Christmas weekend into Christmas week. I put out a map earlier, detailing my thoughts on the pattern. The GFS Ensembles show what I’m talking about…

The European Ensembles do the same…

That could get very, very busy around here for the Holidays. Bring it, Old Man Winter!

I will touch more on that tonight. Make it a good day and take care.

7 Comments

Time posted: 12:23 pm

Tuesday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. Snow showers and snow flurries will continue to wind down across the region this afternoon. As expected, light accumulations have ben noted in the east, especially in the narrow bands of heavier squalls. As this action ends, we focus on a couple more systems for later in the week.

Here’s regional radar to track what’s left out there today…

Winds are a huge player as temps drop into the 20s this afternoon. Both hands on the wheel! 🙂

A strong clipper zips by just to our north Wednesday night, bringing heavy snows to those areas. As it moves east, some wraparound snow showers and flurries make their way into central and eastern Kentucky…

Winds with this system will be even stronger than what we had out there today. Gusts of 40mph will be possible Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning.

There is little change with the Friday system as the models do not want to amplify it. It’s close, but the main low stays to our east with some light snow action with the upper level system moving in from the northwest…

After a mild up on Saturday, the late weekend system should bring rain and a possible wintry mix from Sunday into Monday.

This takes us into the week leading up to Christmas. The overall pattern across North America is one that is going to try to take temps to the extreme. Bitterly cold air is going to move into the country by Christmas weekend, while the far southeast sees toasty temps. Given the extreme temps, forget about using operational computer models. They may show us at zero on one run then 60 for the following run.

Let’s try some good old fashioned pattern recognition and see how things evolve. Here’s the possible setup for the long Christmas weekend into early Christmas week…

I will keep updating the trend as we roll through the week. I will have another update this evening.  Make it a good one as you roll through the rest of the day and take care.

24 Comments

Time posted: 1:27 am

Tracking Some Light Snow

Good Tuesday, folks. A quick-hitting light snow maker works across parts of the state early today, bringing the potential for light accumulations. After this moves away, we concentrate on two more systems later this week and the pattern leading up to Christmas.

Let’s start with today and roll forward. Light snow and snow showers will be noted across parts of central and, especially, eastern Kentucky this morning. You can see the Lake Michigan connection setting up for a time today…

That seems to match up pretty well with the first and only call for snowfall…

This does not look like a repeat of Saturday, but a few roads may see some issues developing.

Temps drop all day long on a STRONG northwest wind. Readings fall through the 20s with wind chills dropping through the teens. Bundle up. Your tracking tools in a bit.

Another clipper drops into the Ohio Valley Wednesday night. Winds will also be VERY gusty with this and we have an increasing threat for some snow showers coming behind this…

At  he end of that animation, you can see the next system diving in across the plains. That is slated to arrive in here late Thursday night into Friday. We are also likely to see some kind of low develop to our south and east at the same time. Can we get that system to develop far enough west to impact our region?

That’s the big question over the next few days. As is, the models bring us snow from the system diving in from the northwest, but keep the low east.

GFS

It would not take much westward correction to turn that into a bigger system around here.

The Canadian is stronger with the system moving in from the northwest, and weaker with the low in the east…

That cold air gets pushed around on Saturday, as we get set for a stronger system coming from the southern branch of the jet stream. This one may bring a mixed bag of weather our way later Sunday…

The setup in the days leading up to Christmas looks very active. Arctic air invades the country and tries to team up with an active storm track. Let’s see where it leads us.

I have you all set to track today’s flakes…

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Newtown Pike
Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road
Lexington
I-75 @ Winchester Road

I-75 @ Iron Works Pike
Lexington

I-275 approaching KY 20/Airport
Near Covington
I-275 East of KY 20/Airport Exit

I-71/I-75 at Buttermilk Pike
Near Covington
I-71/I-75 @ Buttermilk Pike

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown

I-64 at KY-801
Near Morehead

US 60 @ US 127
Frankfort
US60 @ US127

US 60 @ Chenault Road
Near Millville
US60 @ Chenault Road

Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway
Louisville
Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway

Updates later today. Make it a good one and take care.

27 Comments