Author Archives: Chris Bailey

Time posted: 1:24 am

Active Spring Pattern On The Way

Good Thursday, everyone. Much warmer air is on the way to the region, and this will be accompanied by a very active spring setup. The end result will be much above normal temperatures to go along with frequent rounds of showers and thunderstorms.

Highs today are warming into the 60-65 degree range for much of the state. Skies will stay partly sunny with some high clouds rolling in ahead of a late day warm front.

There’s a small chance we could see an isolated shower or storm along that front tonight or early Friday. Behind it, temps take off…

Highs should hit 70 on Friday with some areas pushing 75 by Saturday. Winds will be very gusty as low pressure works into the Ohio Valley. This will cause showers and thunderstorms to increase later Saturday into early Sunday…

A few of the storms may be on the strong side. Highs for Sunday will come down a few degrees, but stay above normal.

Temps stay from the middle 60s to the low 70s for Monday and Tuesday as additional showers and storms roll in…

This continues to be part of a very warm and stormy setup. Later next week, a deep trough goes into the western part of the country as a ridge of high pressure flexes some muscle across the southeast. This setup could put the plains into our region in the target zone for rounds of big storms…

I will continue to pound this point home… This is likely to be a very active thunderstorm season in our part of the world, with an increased risk for severe weather.

Enjoy your Thursday and take care.

5 Comments

Time posted: 1:21 am

One and Done Chilly Shot

Good Wednesday, everyone. We have a brief blast of chill air invading the state today, but the warmer air is going to kick back in by Thursday. This warm up will really spike our temps as we head into a pattern that will also feature frequent rounds of thunderstorms.

Highs today will hit the mid and upper 40s for many with the 50s in the south and west. Freezing temps will be with us to start Thursday, but the afternoon will turn much milder. Readings will hit the low 60s across central and eastern parts of the state, while the west flirts with 70.

From there, temps take off. The GSF Ensembles 5 day average temperature anomalies from this weekend into early next week…

Highs Friday and Saturday likely hit the 70s on a gusty southwesterly wind. That will introduce thunderstorms into the mix later Saturday into Sunday. This is part of a very active setup with storm systems rolling across the country…

This should put areas from the plains into the Ohio Valley under the gun for rounds of strong storms and heavy rains. Look at some of the model rain numbers just over the next 10 days…

This kicks off a likely super active setup of strong to severe thunderstorms in these same areas through April. That also shows up well on the 45 day rain map from the CFS…

Buckle up for a stormy ride, my friends.

Make it a great day and take care.

12 Comments

Time posted: 1:06 am

A Warm and Stormy Pattern Takes Shape

Good Tuesday, everyone. I’m going to continue to hammer home my thoughts on the upcoming pattern being warm and stormy. This setup will likely lead to frequent thunderstorms, with a growing threat for severe weather outbreaks in our part of the world.

Our first full day of spring will feature a cold front swinging through the state. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be noted, especially in the south…

Temps will stay mild,  but chilly winds will blow into Wednesday. Highs tomorrow range from the low 40s in the northeast to the middle 50s in the west and far south.

Thursday starts with another freeze as temps drop into the 20s. Afternoon temps near 60 in the east and 70 in the far west.

Friday looks windy and warm with highs hitting the 70s. Clouds will increase ahead of a storm system rollin in for the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms will become common during this time…

A few strong storms will be possible this weekend. Highs stay warm with upper 60s to low 70s.

This pattern will continue to throw frequent thunderstorm makers our way. Another moves in the first half of next week…

Let’s fire up another big system as we flip the calendar to April…

To illustrate the warm potential in this pattern, watch the GFS Ensembles through the first few days of April…

80 degree highs are possible in this setup, and the models show this next week…

Say it with me… A warm and stormy spring… A warm and stormy spring. 🙂

Enjoy the day and take care.

19 Comments

Time posted: 12:23 pm

Showers and Storms Increase

Good afternoon, folks. I wanted to drop by for a quick update on a cluster of showers and thunderstorms dropping in from the northwest. This action is along the leading edge of much milder air trying to press in from the west.

This cluster will mainly target central and eastern parts of the state with heavy rains, lightning and some small hail. It’s pretty cool to see this kind of cluster develop in such a “meh” setup, and is likely an indication of just stormy this pattern wants to get.

Here are you radars…

Temps this afternoon are DEEP into the 70s in the west but are winter-like in the north and east. That warmer air continues to press in through Tuesday with scattered storms continuing.

This pattern is about to break very warm over the next few weeks. With the warm will come severe weather threats.

See you guys late tonight.

Enjoy the day and take care.

1 Comment

Time posted: 2:26 am

Active Spring Pattern Rolls On

Good Monday, folks. Our March pattern has been pretty energetic, so far, and I see no reason to think that won’t continue. As a matter of fact, the action is likely to increase over the final weeks of the month, and continue right on into April and May.

As always, we start with today and roll forward.

Highs will hit the 60s with mostly cloudy skies and southwesterly winds increasing. A cold front slowly drops our way from the north and should touch off a scattered shower or thunderstorm…

This front moves in here on Tuesday with a much better chance for showers and storms…

I wouldn’t be surprised if we get some strong storms out of this. Small hail and gusty winds will be possible as that action drops in.

There is a shot of cold coming in behind this, but the majority of it stays to our north. Still, it may be just cold enough for a few flakes to fly in the east Wednesday morning…

That action scoots away with a quick recovery in temps by Thursday and Friday. The 60s should return by then as a strong southwesterly flow kicks in ahead of our next system. This arrives over the weekend with fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms…

That’s a slow mover, but has mild temps with it. We will have to be mindful of the threat for some strong storms and heavy rainfall.

Both of those threats are likely a sign of things to come. I’ve mad no bones about my thoughts of a stormy and mild spring.

The GFS Ensembles 2 week rainfall map continues to target the Mississippi Valley into our region…

The long range ensembles from the European Model place a bullseye over the same areas through the end of April…

Have a wonderful Monday and take care.

4 Comments