Author Archives: Chris Bailey

Time posted: 2:00 am

All Eyes On Our Weekend Storm

Good Tuesday, fellow weather weenies. We continue to keep a close eye on a potential wild setup for the upcoming weekend. This will come from a powerhouse of a storm system that can bring high winds and strong storms, before unleashing a winter pattern.

Before we make it to the weekend, we have one more cold front to go through. This arrives on Wednesday with a quick increase in gusty showers during the afternoon and evening. Rainfall amounts could top a quarter of an inch in some areas…

This front passes through here Wednesday night and knocks the temps down several degrees for Thursday. The NAM shows a healthy high temp gradient, with some areas struggling to get to the low 40s…

This brings us to the weekend and a powerful storm system taking aim at the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. The models continue to have their usual differences, with the European being especially bad. It sometimes struggles with energy ejecting from the southwest, and it’s doing it right now.

The GFS has been fairly consistent, but the Canadian shows the same thing run after run…

That setup brings the potential for strong to severe storms Friday night and early Saturday. With or without strong storms, winds are going to be a major player. Gusts of 40-50mph will be possible during this time.

Temps crash on Saturday as the coldest air arrives Saturday night into Sunday. That’s when we have the chance for a few flakes, though that all depends on the exact wind flow.

The Canadian continues to show a few flakes around here through Monday…

Again, that all depends on how much of a true northwesterly wind flow we can get.

This air is frigid and the winds will be very gusty, regardless of the exact direction. Wind chills are going to be way down there from Saturday night through Monday. Teens look to be a safe bet at times for wind chills, but a few models give us a fighting chance at single digits…

Another shot of cold arrives as we head into Thanksgiving week. The models go back and forth on whether or not to develop a storm system in the eastern part of the country. Some of the latest runs show this system centered on Thanksgiving Day…

We know the cold shots are coming, but can they produce flakes across Kentucky? That’s the question going forward, but you have to like the odds of, at least, seeing flakes fly at some point through next week.

I will have updates later today. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 7:27 pm

Monday Evening Update

Good evening, gang. It’s a dreary and chilly day wrapping up across the bluegrass state. This seasonal brand of chill holds tough for much of the week, but big changes are in store for the weekend. A huge storm system will cause some issues in our region, before a winter looking pattern settles in.

Before we get to those big changes, we have a cold front to deal with on Wednesday. This front will bring more chilly rains to the region through early Thursday. This will be a little heavier and more widespread than our Sunday front…

Temps behind this front will take a bit of a dip again for Thursday. Highs from the NAM show this well…

From there, it’s all eyes on the big weekend storm system. The GFS now seems to have a very good handle on the evolution of this bad boy…

That’s trending more toward the Canadian Model in terms of intensity and the winds behind it.

Behind that weekend storm system, northwesterly winds MAY try to produce a few flakes around here into early next week. The exact wind direction will come into play on this, but it’s something to watch for. The GFS ensembles show this potential…

 

The GFS then shows our next plunge of cold coming Tuesday night into Wednesday of next week…

The GFS Ensembles have been very consistent on the weekend cold leading us into a very cold Thanksgiving week. Check out the temperature anomalies through the holiday weekend…

The same model run does show an increase in the flake potential during the same time…

I will see you guys tonight for another update. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 12:08 pm

Midday Monday Update

Good afternoon, everyone. I wanted to drop by for a quick update on the late week storm system taking aim at our region. I’ve been prepping you guys on the possibility for this being a headline making event, and my thoughts have not changed.

The Storm Prediction Center is now on board with our thought about the strong to severe storms potential. Here’s their outlook for later Friday…

That may focus farther east in time.

The GFS continues to come around to a deeper and slower moving storm system….

It cuts that system off across southern Canada and the Great Lakes Sunday into Monday…

Watch for that to correct a little farther south and west with future runs. The model is also finally seeing the tremendous amount of cold behind it…

The Canadian Model continues to show a monster storm…

The flow from the Canadian is one that would actually bring snow showers our way Sunday into Monday…

Here are the highlights of what the weekend may mean for us..

  • Strong to severe storms will be possible late Friday into early Saturday morning
  • Wind gusts may reach 50mph at times, even without thunderstorms
  • Temps crash behind the front
  • Sunday into Monday looks very cold with the chance for some areas to not hit freezing.
  • Single digit wind chills are possible at times
  • A few flurries or snow showers may end the weekend, depending on the exact wind flow from the northwest

None of this includes another winter looking setup for Thanksgiving week. That could be just as cold and produce some flakes.

I will update things later today and have the latest on WKYT-TV starting at 4. Enjoy your Monday.

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Time posted: 1:58 am

Active Pattern Leads Into A Winter Looking Setup

Good Monday, everyone. We have a supercharged pattern taking shape later this week and that looks to kick start a winter looking pattern by the weekend. That winter looking pattern should continue into Thanksgiving week, with cold turkey looking more and more likely.

Let’s start with the short term and roll forward. Clouds will be stubborn out there today, with a seasonal chill in the air. This will likely carry us into Tuesday, too.

A weak cold front drops in here on Wednesday, bringing more showers to the region….

There’s a little dip in temps coming in behind that into Thursday.

From there, get ready for a monster of a storm system to take aim at the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. This storm is likely to become a headline maker as it does so.

We find the usual issues with the operational models. From exact placement, strength and timing, they all vary, but they agree on a big storm.

The GFS is the most progressive of the models because that’s a well known bias of this model…

Even on the ‘progressive’ GFS, that’s one heck of a storm.

The European Model is a little slower and deeper…

The Canadian Model shows a monster winding up in the Great Lakes…

The model keeps that storm spinning across the Great Lakes and into the northeast into early next week, with northwesterly winds cranking behind it. That kicks off the lake effect snow machine and even tries to bring some flakes into our region.

So what could this weekend system mean for our weather?

A big temp spike is likely ahead of this system on Friday with showers and thunderstorms increasing late in the day into Friday night. Some of those could be strong. This system also has the look of a high wind maker. I could see 40-50mph gusts as this thing wraps up Friday night.

Temps would then crash behind it on a strong northwesterly wind. Even colder air works in Saturday night and Sunday. If we can get a true northwesterly wind, a few flakes would be possible.

This should be followed by another push of cold air for Thanksgiving week. The GFS Ensembles keep showing the colder than normal setup through Thanksgiving weekend…

That next blast of cold next week may also include the chance for some flakes. The GFS Ensembles like our chances to see, at least, some flakes over the next 10 days…

Updates will come your way later today. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 6:44 pm

Sunday Evening Update

Good evening, everyone. It’s a dreary day wrapping up, as scattered showers continue to work across the region. This action scoots away tonight, but a very active pattern is about to settle in here later this week into Thanksgiving week.

Here’s regional radar to track the light showers…

We have cold fronts moving our way every couple of days with the next one arriving Wednesday. That will a little more widespread stuff compared to today, but the focus is on the Friday-Saturday storm system. This one has the looks of a big time wind maker across our region, and may even throw some strong storms our way…

A big temps spike ahead of that front will be followed by a big temp drop being it. The real cold lags just behind the front and arrives Saturday night and Sunday…

If we can get a true northwesterly wind to develop Sunday or Sunday night, then some flakes will be possible. Some of the recent models have been showing this possibility…

That may be a huge lake effect outbreak following this storm.

The various operational models will have the usual wild swings on how the pattern looks. You will see big changes from run to run, because that’s what operational models do from this far out. The Ensembles are made up of dozens of individual runs, spitting out the average from each. Granted, the data is smoothed out, but it’s a good indication of where the pattern goes.

The GFS ensembles show a healthy cold shot late this weekend, with cold digging in for Thanksgiving week…

Those same “smoothed out” ensembles are also showing flake chances late this weekend through Thanksgiving weekend…

Even individual runs of the operational members show the wintry potential from time to time. The GFS shows this for Thanksgiving…

The Canadian is also showing some wintry potential in the lead up to Thanksgiving…

 

Find some analogs, forecast the pattern and watch the trends, don’t just regurgitate what one run of one model says. Unfortunately, this is becoming a lost art amongst forecasters. Sigh

I will have a full blown super-duper update later tonight, so check back.. Enjoy the evening and take care.

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