Time posted: 2:02 am

More Sizzle and A Few Storms

Good Sunday to one and all. We have another hot and humid day taking shape across the Commonwealth. A few scattered showers and storms may try to join the party, but those look very isolated. Changes do show up for the week ahead as a cold front gets ready to press in here with an increase in storms and a decrease in temps.

I’m also going to take a look at the rest of August into the middle of September.

As usual, let’s talk about today right off the bat. Temps will generally be in the lower 90s for many areas with humidity levels adding to the uncomfortableness of the air. Any shower or storm would be welcome, but don’t hold your breath on one. Here’s regional radar in case you do…

Scattered showers and storms will be noted on Monday and Tuesday as temps stay in a similar range to today…

A cold front then enters the picture by Wednesday, with several models now slowing this down through Thursday. That would bring us a prolonged chance for showers and storms…

Cooler air comes in behind that for the end of the week into the weekend, but a back and forth temperature pattern is likely to follow that. This should skew warmer than normal, but may also skew wetter than normal. The GFS Ensembles continue to show above average rainfall over the next two weeks. Here are the rainfall departures…

This wetter than normal trend is echoed by the CFS Weekly forecasts. Here are the weekly temperature and precipitation anomalies…

I know those aren’t the best maps, but they give you a good look at the setup across North America.

If we expand that out through the first two weeks of September, the CFS goes cooler than normal for much of the country…

That is an interesting look and one I wouldn’t really complain too much about. 🙂

Have a great day and take care.


Time posted: 1:49 am

Steamy and Sometimes Stormy

Good Saturday, everyone. We have a serious case of August steam pushing into the region and it’s bringing a few thunderstorms along for the ride. Some of those may show up out there today, but the biggest threat comes our way as we head into next week.

It’s a pattern skewed warmer than normal and it’s likely to feature frequent thunderstorms over the next few weeks, at least.

Let’s begin with today. Temps are in the upper 80s and low 90s, but a cluster of thunderstorms may have something to say about that. These storms won’t impact everyone, but should roll from west to east through the early afternoon. The storms will likely weaken the farther east they get…

Sunday is another hot and humid day with lows of high 80s and low 90s showing up. The sweat factor is super high because the humidity levels are going to be way up there. I can’t rule out a storm or two going up at some point.

Monday looks very similar in terms of temps and sky condition as we get ready for storms to increase by Tuesday and Wednesday. This increase in storms will happen as moisture returns from the Gulf of Mexico and combines with a system dropping in from the northwest…

That will knock the temps back down for the second half of the week.

The pattern beyond that continues to look fairly active..

While I continue to think the pattern skews warmer than normal through the rest of the month and into September, the latest Ensembles are trending in the opposite direction for the final week of August…

I dare the weather to make a liar out of me! 🙂 Certainly won’t be the first time.

Have a great Saturday and take care.


Time posted: 1:37 am

A Mid-August Steamy Setup

Good Friday, folks. It’s a mainly nice weather day across the region, but we are rolling into the weekend with an increase in the steamy temps and sometimes stormy skies. The storm action will actually increase as we head into next week with a possible tropical connection from the Gulf.

Let’s start with today and roll forward.

Highs are back into the middle and upper 80s for many with a 90 in the west. That’s also the area we could see a shower or storm go up later in the afternoon and evening. Here’s regional radar just in case…

A better shot for a few showers and storms rolls in from west to east later tonight into Saturday. This is on the leading edge of the true steamy air pushing in from the southwest. Any storm that’s out there can produce some very heavy rains…

Temps range from the upper 80s to low 90s in many areas. That temperature trend looks to carry us into the first half of next week. This is a true steam bath of an atmosphere.

A few showers and storms will be noted, especially as a system drops in from the northwest by the middle of next week…



Temps will come down several degrees by the middle and end of the week, but this isn’t a pattern likely to turn cool anytime soon. As a matter of fact, I think we are going into a warmer than normal setup likely to carry us through much of September! It may take a hurricane or two to knock this pattern out for good.

Have a great Friday and take care.