Time posted: 1:57 am

Strong Storms Possible Monday

Good Sunday to one and all.With a few showers slowly exiting the region, we start to focus on a potent cold front  moving in here, bringing the potential for strong to severe storms.  This will be ahead of a pattern that threatens to get winter off to a very early start across the country.

Let’s begin with today and roll forward. Temps are in the mild side with highs in the 70s southwesterly winds will be gusty. As the remnants of Nestor continue to quickly pull away to our east and northeast, some early showers are possible in the east…

A powerful storm system is working from the plains into the western Great Lakes today into Monday. That drags our cold front into the state, bringing a rapid increase in showers and storms. These storms are likely to be strong and may even go severe, with damaging wind the main threat. The Storm Prediction Center has us in the risk area for Monday…

Heavy rains will be a good bet, with some 1″-2″ amounts potentially showing up…

A chilly and windy Tuesday will be noted behind this front with temps in the 50s. The weather for Wednesday looks pretty good, but from there we watch our next system rolling in here by the end of the week. That system continues to show up differently on each run and that’s to be expected with a pretty anomalous pattern for late October.

Here’s the overnight run of the GFS…

The Canadian…

The systems coming in behind that for the final week of October into early November will grow even colder and have a shot at producing some early season winter weather across much of the country. We will touch more on that with my next update later today.

Make it a great day and take care.

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Time posted: 7:27 pm

Saturday Evening Update

Good evening, folks. As we continue through the weekend, a tropical system is taking a swipe at Kentucky. As that passes by, it’s all eyes on a potent cold front that may bring strong to severe storms on Monday. From there, a winter looking setup continues to take shape.

Let’s begin with the showers that are moving into areas of central and eastern Kentucky. This action will increase through the evening into the overnight. Locally heavy rain will be noted across the far southeast.

Sunday is a windy and mild day and I can’t rule out a stray shower. As the day wears on, clouds filter in ahead of the Monday system. The signal for strong storms has been there for a while and now the SPC has the entire state in a Marginal Risk for severe storms…

That may very well get bumped up to a Slight Risk later tonight. Damaging winds will be the number one player with the ling of storms as it races eastward. These storms will also be big rain makers and could put down 1″-2″ of rain for some…

The late week system continues to show up a big different with each model run. The latest run of the GFS matches the Euro with a slow-moving system that would bring a lot of rain, wind and very chilly air in here…

The pattern is then loaded with a winter look for the final week of October into early November. How this evolves with individual systems remains to be seen, but this continues to be a cold look on the Ensembles…

Make it a great evening and take care.

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Time posted: 2:02 am

Tracking A Very Active Setup

Good Saturday, everyone. I continue to beat the drum on a very active weather pattern that looks to be with us through the rest of the month. This will feature several potent cold fronts as the overall setup starts to take on more of a winter look.

Batting leadoff in the active weather pattern is Tropical Storm Nestor. This storm comes ashore early today in the Florida Panhandle…

cone graphic

That system is moving quickly toward the northeast, but should manage to throw some clouds in here today. Those clouds may produce some late day showers in the southeast…

Temps this weekend are pretty mild and should reach the 70s in most areas. This comes as we watch another potent plains storm system lift toward the Great Lakes on Monday. That drags a big time cold front across the state and this is likely to bring heavy rain producing showers and strong storms…

Gusty winds could become an issue as those storms blow through here.

Heavy rainfall numbers are also likely to show up. Some 1″-2″ rains may show up for many…

October is already above normal for rainfall and it’s likely to finish much above normal in many areas.

Yet another potent storm system should roll in here by the end of next week into next weekend. The evolution of this storm remains to be seen, but the pattern argues for a pretty big system that should also have a little cold air to work with on the northwest side of it. Here’s how the latest GFS sees it…

It’s no secret I’ve been pointing toward a very cold pattern taking control for the last week and change of October and likely rolling into early November, at least. If you’ve been reading the past few days, you’ve seen the consensus of the various Ensembles signalling some major troughs into the eastern part of the country.

The operational models have been all over this as well, but the overnight GFS is pretty darn awesome to see…

 

That’s a lot of very cold air showing up. One could easily argue this would be arctic air moving into the country. Obviously, with such cold temps, winter weather continues to show up on the models…

I will drop by for another update later today, so roll back in here. Until then, have a sensational Saturday and take care.

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