Time posted: 2:04 am

Tropical Moisture Moves In

Good Monday, folks. The remnants of Hurricane Barry continue to slowly move into the region, bringing tropical rain producing showers and storms. This action will increase over the next few days as we continue to watch for local high water issues to develop. A few strong or severe storms are also possible.

The extended forecast looks fun and I will get to that in a bit.

First, we start with what’s going on out there today. Tropical humidity will fire up scattered showers and storms across the eastern half of the state. The western half of the state will see the greatest concentration of showers and storms as what’s left of Barry starts to have an impact. A few of the storms may be strong or severe. Here’s the Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center…

The west will see the heaviest rain potential today, but any storm that goes up can put down torrential rains.

Here are your tracking tools to start the week…

The rain from Barry then slowly slides east across the state Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing the potential for more showers and storms. Heavy rainfall continues to be a good bet, but it’s not raining all the time. Once again, local flash flooding issues may develop.

A big heat ridge is going to build in from the plains into the Great Lakes later this week into the weekend. Some clusters of thunderstorms may dive in here ahead of this at some point and that’s something to watch for. A few days of heat are a good bet, but the hottest air appears to bypass us to the north.

If you recall, the medium range models and seasonal models were all advertising some cooler shots diving into the eastern half of the country for the middle of this month. Obviously, Barry changed the pattern, but should we give up on those cooler shots? Once Barry completely gets out of the way, the original signal for cooler temps comes back…

GFS

GFS Ensembles

Delayed but not denied? We shall see.

Have a great Monday and take care.

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Time posted: 1:50 am

Tropical Rains On The Way

Good Sunday, everyone. A weak cold front is dropping into the region today as offshoot tropical moisture streams into the region ahead of Barry. This tropical moisture will increase in the days ahead as the remnants of Barry roll into the Ohio Valley, bringing heavy amounts of rain our way.

As always, we begin with today and roll forward. Our boundary will combine with some tropical moisture to kick off a few showers and storms. This isn’t an all day rain and not everyone will even see rain, but any storm that’s out there can put down very heavy rains in a short amount of time. Local flash flooding issues may very well develop. Here are your trackers for the day…

What’s left of Barry rolls this way from Monday through early Thursday. This won’t be constant rains, but a general 1″-3″ will fall across the state during this time. Higher amounts will be possible for some areas and those are the areas that can experience flash flooding issues.

Humidity levels will be sky high, but high temps come way down.

Once the remnants of Barry slide to our east, a surge of heat is building into the plains and Midwest. This setup can sometimes produce thunderstorm clusters riding the ridge into our region. Some of the models are hinting at this potential next weekend…

Hot temps are likely to surge in here into next week and could give us a nice little run of real deal heat before a trough tries to dig into the eastern part of the country.

I told you that tropical systems can REALLY alter the overall pattern and Barry is certainly doing just that.

Enjoy your Sunday and take care.

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Time posted: 2:34 am

Tracking Barry Toward The Bluegrass State

Good Saturday, folks. All eyes in the weather world continue to be Barry as it comes ashore in Louisiana. This is a storm that rolls northward through the Mississippi Valley then takes a turn toward the east into the lower Ohio Valley. Obviously,  a track like that means tropical rains for the bluegrass state.

Let’s begin with today and roll forward. Much of the state is dry, but the south and southwest could see a few showers and storms going up. Here’s regional radar to track whatever shows up…

A weak cold front drops in from the north on Sunday and will combine forces with offshoot tropical moisture to produce a few showers and storms, A setup like this can produce a few cloudbursts, so keep that in mind.

Hurricane Barry is makes landfall early today in Louisiana, bringing a huge and a ton of rain. Here are the tracking toys to follow along…

cone graphic

Barry has been a very unbalanced storm with much of the rain on the eastern side of the center of circulation. That’s expected to be the case well inland as this storm spins up the Mississippi River Valley and into the lower Ohio Valley through the middle of next week. The WPC rainfall forecast indicates the potential for some hefty numbers…

 

That matches up well with the potential impact zone I put out several days ago…

The greatest impact on our weather is likely to come from later Monday through early Thursday. Heavy rainfall will be likely during this time and that’s something we will have to keep a close eye on.

I will update things later today so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

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