Time posted: 12:24 pm

Winter Storm Threat Wednesday Night and Thursday

Good afternoon, everyone. Many areas picked up light snow accumulations this morning, making this the 4th day out of the past 5 to deliver winter weather somewhere in the state. As we head into late Wednesday and Thursday, a potent winter storm system rolls our way with freezing rain, sleet, snow and rain.

Given the nasty mix of frozen precipitation and the potential for several inches of snow in the far west, this is my first ever pre-Thanksgiving Winter Storm Threat.

Location means everything in terms of what kind of precipitation you will see outside your house over the next few days. The freezing rain potential is VERY rare sight for the month of November, especially for the middle of the month. Some areas may pick up enough freezing rain to cause a few issues.

Here’s my current thinking (subject to change) on how this storm plays out across Kentucky…

The one positive for areas getting in on the freezing rain is that ground temps are above freezing. Still, elevated surfaces may be coated in some ice for a time Wednesday night before rain takes over early Thursday. That rain will end as some snow by evening.  The heavy snow area I’ve highlighted across the west may be in for a thumping heavy wet snow.

Here’s how the GFS shows the progression of the storm…

The Hi Res NAM

The Hi Res NAM continues to spit out some impressive freezing rain amounts…

The regular version of the NAM is lower, but still up there…

The GFS isn’t as generous with the freezing rain, but still has pockets of higher totals…

The Canadian is similar to the Hi-Res NAM with heavier amounts…

As mentioned, areas of the far western part of the state could be in line for a thumper of a wet snow…

GFS

NAM

As the low pulls east on Thursday, rain will end as a period of light snow across the rest of the state. That may put down some light accumulations as it works through.

BTW, I’m keeping an eye on Sunday for a sneaky system moving through here. That may try to ramp up a little more.

I will have the very latest on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm, so tune in. I will also have another KWC update for you later this evening. Make it a good one and take care.

10 Comments

Time posted: 2:15 am

Winter Weather Likely

Good Tuesday, everyone. The day is starting with a wintry mix of rain and snow across much of the region, with a swath of light accumulating snow possible. The system that follows this has the potential to bring a bigger mess to the state as rain, snow, freezing rain and sleet move in.

I will get to that in a moment, but let’s start with what’s going on now.

A band of wet snow may very well be noted across parts of the region to start the day. This would be oriented from southwest to northeast and could put down some slushy accumulations on grassy or elevated surfaces. Here are your early day tracking tools…

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Newtown Pike
Lexington

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown

I-64 at KY-801
Near Morehead

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

Mountain Parkway @ MP 36
Near Pine Ridge

With temps around freezing, watch out for a slick spot or two trying to develop.

The next storm system continues to look like a messy one for our region from Wednesday night through Thursday night. This is the system that wasn’t on any models last week, but I said I was picking up on a signal for a decent storm during this time period. That signal proved to be true and this has the makings of a pretty big hit from Missouri to the Mid-Atlantic to the northeast.

One low develops ahead of the upper level low and works into the lower Ohio Valley then transfers energy to a huge storm along the east coast. This setup may very well bring heavy snow into parts of western Kentucky with the rest of the state going from freezing rain and a mix to rain then ending as some snow. There is a real possibility of a Winter Storm Threat mode later today for the west, especially.

Let’s see how the individual models are playing this.

NAM

GFS

The European

Let’s begin with the freezing rain threat for Wednesday night. I honestly can’t recall talking about freezing rain this early in the cold weather season, but here we are. If we do get a period of freezing rain, I suspect this is mainly on elevated objects since the ground temps are not below freezing.

Every single model sees the freezing rain threat, but to a different extent.

The NAM…

The Hi Res NAM is on steroids and is likely way overdone…

GFS…

The European Model…

Some sleet may also show up at this time. Thankfully, temps rise to above freezing by Thursday morning.

The snow potential of this system continues to be high along and west of the track of the low and upper low. There is likely to be a heck of a comma head of snow that will put down a thumping wet snowfall. Exactly where that sets up is still to be determined, but areas of western Kentucky is seriously in the ball game.

The European shows the thumper threat…

The GFS…

The NAM is just a bit farther west…

 

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Time posted: 7:23 pm

Updating The Winter Weather Potential

Good evening, folks. It has been an absolutely dreary and cold day across the Commonwealth of Kentucky. Some sleet and steady showers have been common, now we wait for some light snow to show up later tonight. This is kicking off a very active week that will throw a bigger winter weather system our way by Wednesday night and Thursday.

Let’s start with the first system that can throw some light snow in here later tonight. The best chance for some light snow is across the western and central parts of the state, oriented from southwest to northeast similar to the map I put out several days ago.

The GFS suggests some very light accumulations…

The short range Canadian has a little better coverage of that…

The new version of the GFS also has a little better coverage…

Moral of the story, I can’t rule out some slush accumulating on grassy or elevated surfaces into western Kentucky and parts of central and  northern Kentucky.

The next storm system has the chance to bring a wintry mix into the region as early as Wednesday night. Rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow may develop on the leading edge of our precipitation shield during this time. From there, rain may take over for a while in central and eastern Kentucky, with a better snow chance in the west. As the low works through, wraparound snow may move across the rest of the state…

It’s very interesting to see the models spitting out some freezing rain this early in the year. Look at the European Model for Wednesday night…

Here’s the Freezing rain forecast from that run…

The GFS is similar…

The latest run of the GFS targets western Kentucky as being under and just west of the track of the upper low, giving more dynamic cooling for snow…

The European Model is a bit west with that…

It’s way too early in the season to be talking about precipitation types and the forecasting headaches that come with them. 🙁

Enjoy the rest of the evening and take care.

6 Comments

Time posted: 12:40 pm

Monday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, folks. Rain rolled into the region this morning and actually started as a touch of sleet across parts of north central and northeastern Kentucky. The rain is taking over, but should go back to a little frozen stuff later tonight and early Tuesday. Then, another system rolls our way in a few days. Busy enough for ya?

Here are your radars to track today’s initial touch of sleet and rain…

The radars show the disjointed nature of the precipitation, with two shields. The main one moves through very quickly, but the rain and snow one to the west slowly works in behind it. Later tonight and Tuesday morning, that is on top of western and parts of central Kentucky.

Folks in the southeast may get another swipe of rain and some flakes Tuesday afternoon and evening.

The next system is going to turn into a big event across the eastern part of the country. This system will turn into a full blown nor’easter, with the trailing upper level low moving our way. As I’ve said for the past few days, if you want snow, you want to be directly under the upper low of just west of its track.

The models differ slightly with the track of the upper low, but many bring it on top of the region at some point. What may wind up happening in this setup: A wintry mix of precipitation moves in Wednesday night and goes over to rain early Thursday. By later Thursday, we are seeing that switch to some light snow from west to east as the upper low swings through.

Here’s the NAM through early Thursday evening…

GFS

Canadian

ICON

I will have an update on WKYT-TV starting at 4 and will also throw another update at you later today. Make it a good one and take care.

16 Comments

Time posted: 1:50 am

Tracking The Winter Weather Chances

Good Monday, my fellow weather weenies. It’s another active week of weather beginning across our part of the world, with the chances for early season winter weather showing up. The first is a minor system later tonight and early Tuesday, with a stronger system quickly moving in behind it.

You know how we roll on the blog… We start with the precious present and roll forward. Rain is increasing across the state today as our fist system moves in. The heaviest will be across the southeastern part of the state…

As I’ve already explained in prior posts, this system is fairly strung out and is leaving behind the bulk of the energy. That will come out and form a bigger storm for the middle and end of the week. Because of that, this first system doesn’t have as much precipitation and is weaker and very fast moving. Still, it should be able to change to a period of light snow later tonight and early Tuesday, especially in the west and central parts of the state…

Notice the disconnect between the main rain shield and the rain and snow lagging behind to the west. That’s what moves in later tonight with the chance for some wet snow in the areas I just mentioned. Some light accumulations are possible in a few spots.

Cold air continues to pour in behind this for Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the 30s.

All that energy that’s holding back decides to become a little bowling ball of an upper level low and it looks to head right at us by late Wednesday through Thursday.

Along and west of the track of the upper low, dynamic cooling will produce snow. This whole system then turns into a nor’easter through the end of the week. The big question for us is does the upper low move in a way to give us snow? That’s a real possibility as of now and several models are latching on to this snow threat…

NAM through Thursday Morning…

GFS

New version of the GFS

ICON

This is an interesting system because those upper lows can produce a thumper of a snow right under them. That doesn’t mean it will be anywhere across Kentucky, but, if not, it’s going to be pretty darn close. It’s also interesting to see all models spitting out some sleet and freezing rain in our region.

Watch the northwestern sky for a clipper looking system to move in this weekend. That could bring another shot of flakes our way.

Updates later today, so check back. Make it a great Monday and take care.

15 Comments