Time posted: 7:38 pm

Thursday Evening Thoughts

Good evening, folks. Rounds of heavy rain rolling through the region and this will continue through Friday. As the heavier rains wind down, temps start to drop and this will lead to the chance for wraparound snows into the weekend. This is part of a setup that’s very active over the next few weeks.

First off, let’s track the rain train…

Rain totals of 1″-2″ may show up across parts of central Kentucky.

The snow potential isn’t anything that’s crazy, but some slushy accumulations will be possible Saturday into Sunday. We may have to watch for a better shot at some steady snows across areas of northern Kentucky late Saturday and Saturday night. If that’s the case, it would up the ante for accumulating stuff.

Let’s check on the models. The Hi Res NAM snow map only goes through 1am Sunday…

Here’s the NAM through Sunday evening…

The EURO is hitting the northern Kentucky area a little better with the snow chance…

If we look down the road for the next few weeks, we do find a stormy looking setup with numerous systems rolling across the region. This stormy pattern means we are probably on the precipitation fence, but the Ensembles continue to point toward a colder setup…

The EURO Ensembles like the snow chances over the next few week…

The GFS Ensembles are much more enthusiastic…

As always, we shall see, but Mother Nature has to balance things out at some point. Maybe. Possibly. Right? 🙂

Have a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 12:14 pm

Updating The Messy System Rolling In

Good afternoon, everyone. We continue to deal rain on the increase and this rain looks to become heavy at times through Friday. This comes as one low weakens over our region, allowing for another to develop to our east. That means some wraparound light snows wrapping in behind all this over the weekend.

The setup remains the same, but here’s a little breakdown:

  • Rain continues to increase this afternoon and evening from the west and southwest.
  • As the first low wraps up on top of us Friday, a corridor of heavy rain is likely to develop across areas of central and eastern Kentucky. A quick 1″-2″ of rain is likely with this.
  • Wraparound light snows will be possible from late Friday night through Saturday morning.
  • With temps around the freezing mark, whatever snow you get would be on the wet and slushy side. Some light accumulations will be possible for some.

The NAM continues to illustrate what I’m talking about…

Here’s the corridor of heavy rains…

The snow map from that same run…

The Hi Res NAM…

The Canadian looks similar and then brings another sneaky little system in here for Monday…

The GFS continues to be a lone wolf model with the entire setup. Soooooo.

This kicks off a very active southern storm track that will likely put us on the fence over the next few weeks. For winter lovers, that’s at least some progress from where we’ve been! 🙂

I will have the latest on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm then again on KWC this evening. Until then, let’s do some tracking…

Enjoy the day and take care.

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Time posted: 1:42 am

Breaking Down Another Ugly System

Good Thursday, friends and neighbors! Our slow-moving storm system is beginning to impact the weather across Kentucky today. This system looks to bring rain before we can get in on the potential for winter weather by Saturday and early Sunday.

The first round of precipitation works into western and southern parts of the state later today and is in the form of rain. Here is your regional radar to track the action…

Here’s a breakdown of how things may play out:

  • Rain increases tonight and carries us into Friday. Rain may be heavy at times across the central and east.
  • Temps will spike to near 50 across the east with the west seeing temps crashing into the 30s.
  • Our upper level low spins on top of us through Saturday as a surface low takes control to our east. This allows for colder air to move in and this should be cold enough for snow showers and periods of light snow.
  • Temps are marginal for accumulations, but some slushy sticking snows will be possible into early Sunday.

The NAM continues to show this scenario well through 7am Sunday…

The Hi Res NAM goes through 7AM Saturday, but is showing a similar look…

Here’s the snow map from the NAM through 7am Sunday…

Here’s the Canadian…

The Euro

Meanwhile, the GFS continues to be a complete outlier with this entire storm…

Once this one pulls away, another system looks to move in here for Wednesday and Thursday. That one could bring another messy setup with rain and some snow.

I will have your usual updates later today. Have a great Thursday and take care.

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