Time posted: 2:07 am

Winter Weather For Some Late Sunday

Good Saturday, everyone. It’s another pretty ugly day for many across the bluegrass state as one storm system slowly pulls away. As it moves to our northeast, the next one rolls in from the west late Sunday. This will bring one heck of a temperature spread and a shot of winter weather for some.

Let’s begin with today’s rain as it pushes across central and eastern Kentucky. As low pressure deepens to the northeast, the air gets cold enough for a few flakes in the northeast. Later in the afternoon, the action becomes more scattered from west to east…

Sunday starts quiet, but ends with a bit increase in the action as our winter storm targets the Ohio Valley. Rain, snow and a mix of precipitation works from west to east late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. The north sees mainly snow, with the south seeing mainly rain. In between will be a mixed bag. Here’s the early look at how that may play out…

Accumulating snow is a good bet across parts of the north during this time.

As the low works into Kentucky and West Virginia on Monday, we are going to see a mega temperature spread from north to south. We may see a better than 30 degree difference from northern Kentucky to far southeastern Kentucky. Rain will be the primary precipitation type on Monday.

Once the low goes by to the east, much colder air swings back in from the northwest, giving us some wraparound snow Monday night into Tuesday.

The GFS Ensembles show the whole scenario pretty well…

Here’s the snow map from the GFS Ensembles through Tuesday…

The European Model is similar in bringing our swath of accumulating snow into northern Kentucky. It’s also a little flatter and farther south with the low, keeping the mixed precip line close to northern Kentucky through the entire event. It’s also beginning to see the flakes behind the system…

Euro Snow Map…

The Canadian is similar to the above models and looks a lot like the GFS Ensembles with some wraparound light stuff. Once again, check out the stripe of decent snow across northern Kentucky…

It’s been pretty cool to watch the GFS do what we thought it would do and come way south.  A few days ago, the model had a low near Detroit. Now it’s crossing eastern Kentucky instead…

The GFS snow map is coming in line with most of the other guidance in targeting northern Kentucky…

As expected, Northern Kentucky is in the best zone for snow and winter weather with this system. Can it still come a little farther south? Yes, but I don’t expect some major deviation at this point.

My midday update may be a little delayed because I will be ringing the Salvation Army Bell at the Fayette Mall today from noon-2. Come on out and say hi and put some money in the kettle and do a little good this Christmas season. 🙂

Have a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 7:39 pm

Friday Evening Update

Good evening, folks. It’s a VERY ugly evening across the bluegrass state as rounds of rain roll through here. This system blows through by Saturday afternoon as we then focus on the Sunday/Monday system. That one continues to trend flatter, bringing all modes of precipitation to the state.

Right out of the gate, let’s track our ugly evening…

As this system wraps up to our east early Saturday, a few snowflakes may mix in across the north. Things improve a bit by the afternoon, but I can’t rule out a rain or snow shower later in the evening.

The Sunday-Monday system continues to trend flatter on the GFS, bringing it more in line with what the European Model has been showing from day one.

This would bring snow, a wintry mix and rain from west to east across the state Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. As the low tracks on top of Kentucky and into West Virginia on Monday, rain should be the primary player, but we need to watch for a farther south track of the low. As is, we may have a 30 degree temp difference from north to south across the state. As that low goes by, more flakes should fly late Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Here’s the Euro…

The Euro snow map continues to target the northern half of the state…

The late afternoon run of the GFS is finally buying into what the GFS has been selling for a while…

The snowfall on the GFS continues to edge farther south into northern Kentucky…

There’s a second front that dives in here Tuesday night and delivers a few flurries or snow snow showers. This unleashes some very cold air for Wednesday. Look at the numbers…

I will have the new model runs on WKYT-TV at 11 and on KWC later tonight. Have a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 12:23 pm

Friday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. It’s a dreary day across the Commonwealth as rains increase to kick off the weekend. It’s a weekend that will feature two more systems through early next week. Those can bring plenty of action our way as we get into a setup that brings a mixed bag of precipitation for some.

Let;s begin with what’s going on today. Rain will increase across central and eastern Kentucky and could become heavy at times this evening. Here are your radars…

As this low wraps up to our east, it will bring colder air in behind it later tonight and early Saturday. That may result in a period of rain and some snow. Later Saturday we will find another disturbance that can kick off a few rain and snow showers.

Our next system then rolls our way by Sunday afternoon and evening. This pushes a swath of precipitation from west to east. Farther south, this is mainly rain. Along and north of the Interstate 64 corridor, snow and a wintry mix pushes through.

Here’s how the hi res NAM sees all this…

The European Model continues to have the greatest concentration of snow and winter weather late Sunday before rain takes over as low pressure works across Kentucky on Monday…

That’s from  the 6z run of the Euro and only goes through Monday evening.

The NAM goes through the same time period but shows a switch back to snow by Monday evening…

The GFS is similar in taking the low across Kentucky with a swath of snow and winter weather across the north on Sunday, then a lot of rain, then cold and a few snow showers…

That run of the GFS cranks out a ton of rain…

I will have the latest on WKYT starting at 4 and with another KWC update later this evening. Make it a good one and take care.

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