Time posted: 2:06 am

Changes For The Week Ahead

Good Sunday, everyone. It’s been a calm and seasonally chilly weekend across Kentucky, but things are looking to change with the new week. The action is going to pick up as we track a few week systems to start the week and a bigger system to end it. This looks to lead us into a wintry pattern for Thanksgiving week.

Our Sunday is pretty decent, so get out and enjoy.

The clouds you see increasing today are ahead of a couple of systems diving in from the northwest Monday and Tuesday. Those systems won’t have a lot of moisture to work with but could touch off a rain or snow shower, especially Monday night and early Tuesday.

The American models seem to be struggling to see these systems. Notice the difference between the NAM…

And the Euro…

This air really isn’t that cold and, given the nature of these systems, we would see quite the temp spread across the state.

Temps by the middle of the week may actually feel pretty good as we wait on the late week system. Once again, we are finding the models trying to figure out what happens with that system and the one behind it for next weekend.  The one next weekend has the most potential for some winter weather. The Euro keeps showing our possibility…

Here’s the current Canadian…

The GFS Ensembles average 7 day 500mb mean anomalies show a colder than normal and likely stormy pattern from Thanksgiving week into the first couple days of December…

I’ll have another update late this afternoon or evening, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 5:45 pm

Saturday Evening Update

Good evening, everyone. Our calm and chilly weekend continues as we get ready for a much more active setup once into next week. That’s likely setting the stage for some more winter action before November is through and this same pattern may hold into December.

A couple of weak systems are diving in from the northwest Monday and Tuesday. This will lead to some light precipitation across the region and that could be a touch of rain and snow shower action.

Canadian

European

Those are trying to look clipperish and we will need to watch to see if one of them is a little stronger than advertised.

The models continue to change with each run on how they’re handling the end of next week into the following weekend. We’ve talked about this for days now because this is a very energetic pattern with blocking setting up. That’s a combo to give the models fits.

We do know one system moves in by Thursday and Friday, likely with rain ending with the chance for some Friday flakes. Another system will try to follow that up next weekend. Here’s how the last run of the Euro handles this setup…

The details will change from run to run, but we will soon be getting into the ‘watching trends’ time frame.

I mentioned the blocking setting up and it’s looking fairly stout as we get deeper into the second half of November. The Euro is showing this to begin Thanksgiving week…

Notice that big positive up the west coast… That argues for a very deep trough in the east and you can see how that’s just showing up at the end of that run. Throw in some energy coming from the southwest and things could get fun.

The European Ensembles have a blocky look through the start of December…

Winter cometh early this year, but we’ve already seen that firsthand!

I will have a full update later tonight, so check back. Make it a great one and take care.

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Time posted: 1:55 am

Colder Than Normal Pattern Rolls On

Good Saturday, everybody. It’s a calm and chilly weekend as our absolutely frigid November rolls on. The temps aren’t exactly frigid over the next several days, but they continue to be skewed colder than normal. The setup after next week looks like to turn frigid once again.

Let’s start out by taking a look at just how cold the first half of November has been. Look at those departures for areas east of the Rockies…

That’s cold!

Once past the weekend, we turn our attention toward a couple of weak systems dropping in here from the northwest Monday and Tuesday. This can drop a few rain or snow showers on us. The NAM shows a few flakes flying…

Another system makes a run at us late next week, with rain on Thursday and the potential for some flakes on Friday.Its a setup the models are struggling mightily with…

That looks to set the stage for another system to follow that up from the southwest, bringing the potential for winter weather next weekend into early Thanksgiving week.

In an earlier post I talked about the cold look from some of the analogs coming from the forecast models. The following models are centered on November 26th and show the closest hemispheric matches in the bottom right, starting with the year…

GFS Ensembles

GFS

1989 and 2000 show up on more than one occasion. Those just happen to be the two top coldest Decembers on record around here. 1963 and 1976 were also big December winters around here.The winter of 1976/77 us legendary. 2002 is another year showing up several times and that was a rough and tumble winter around here.

Those are just snapshots of analogs the computer comes up with and will change a bit with each run, but they can sometimes give us clues as to where things are going.

I will be back with updates later today. Have a good one and take care.

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