Time posted: 1:45 am

Tracking Storms and Looking Ahead

Good Monday, everybody. We are getting closer to the launch of the brand new Kentucky Weather Center and I know you guys are stoked. 🙂 I don’t have a date just yet, but I’ll let ya know when I know. In terms of the actual weather, we are tracking an increase in storms and the potential for a significant weekend cold front.

Let’s start this party with a look at where we stand on the rainfall front. The latest soil moisture map shows our region in pretty good shape…

The northern part of the state is a little closer to normal for soil moisture with the rest of the state showing up in a lot of green. Why is that? Look at the rainfall anomalies on the year…

Some areas of the state are pushing 20″ above normal since January 1st. This seems to be a yearly thing now across Kentucky. That said, if we don’t get 10″ of rain each week, the pathetic Drought Monitor will show us becoming the next Dust Bowl. 🙂

As far as the current weather goes, temps are back into the upper 80s and low 90s as a few storms go up. This isn’t terribly widespread, but any storm that’s out there can put down a lot of water in a short amount of time.A few of the storms may even be strong or severe. Here are your trackers…

The threat for scattered showers and storms will continue with us for the rest of the week. Any storm that goes up can be strong and put down enough rain to cause local high water issues. Again, it’s cloudburst season around here.

We continue to watch the southeast coast for the possibility of a tropical system…

This may hug the coast as it strengthens in the coming days. At the same time, a couple of systems dive in behind this, bringing showers and storms into our weekend…

EURO

CANADIAN

This is a very nice trough digging in behind this for the weekend and early next week…

Have a happy Monday and take care.

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Time posted: 1:42 am

A Few Storms Join The Summer Steam

Good Sunday, everyone. Here’s hoping y’all had a great 4th of July! As we put the wraps on the holiday weekend, we will see a increase in scattered showers and storms. This action will ramp it up even more in the coming week as the Summer pattern starts to flex a little muscle. We are watching the tropics and a plains heat waves to see what, if any, impact each could have on our weather.

Temps today are back into upper 80s and low 90s for the entire region. As humidity comes up a bit, we will also feel the heat index show up a little more.

Scattered storms will also flare up, especially during the afternoon and evening. Scattered is the key word here. Your friendly radars will help you find any boomer that’s out there…

The threat for thunderstorms will then increase in the week ahead as we keep similar temps. I will get to that in a bit.

A week or so ago, I mentioned how the pattern would become conducive to some tropical systems developing off the southeast coast. Low and behold we have a system developing there now, but it’s moving out to sea…

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL052020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/023903.png

Another system will then try to develop off the southeast coast in the week ahead. This is likely coming from that upper level system spinning across the south…

That will continue to throw some showers and storms at us as this system develops off the southeast coast then rides north. We are seeing some good model agreement on this…

EURO

GFS

That could be a potent little cold front dropping in here next weekend. This could carve out a trough that delivers cooler temps. The EURO goes for a quick hitter…

The GFS goes for a much deeper and cutoff look…

The Canadian looks a lot like the GFS…

That would have a big impact on what happens with the developing plains heat ridge, obviously.

Have a great Sunday and take care.

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Time posted: 2:09 am

Happy 4th of July Weather

Good Saturday and Happy 4th of July. As we celebrate our Independence Day, steamy temps continue as we introduce the chance for a storm or two. The steam hangs tough into the first full week of July, but our thunderstorm chances look to increase. That may help knock the numbers down just a bit.

Highs today range from the upper 80s to low 90s across the entire state. A hot spot or two may come in with a mid 90. Humidity levels are up there, so it’s going to feel like the mid 90s at times for some. With an increase in moisture, a storm or two will also go up…

The threat for scattered storms will increase Sunday and then increase even more by early next week. This action is more prominent during the afternoon and evening hours. This action may continue into much of next week. The GFS continues to be the most enthusiastic…

The Canadian isn’t too far behind…

Even the EURO is getting on board…

It’s cloudburst season in Kentucky, so we will have to watch any thunderstorm that blows up. With the increase in thunderstorm action, temps will likely come down from where we are this weekend.

A big heat ridge will be developing in the plains shortly after this. We will need to watch and see how much of an impact this can have on our weather. We may get close to some real deal heat!

Have a happy and safe 4th and take care.

7 Comments