Time posted: 1:15 am

The Wet Weather Is Back

Good Wednesday, folks. I know this won’t come as a big shock to anyone, but the wet weather is back in the bluegrass state. This wetter than normal pattern has become the norm around here for the past several years and Guess what? It really doesn’t show any signs of changing.

Showers and thunderstorms will come at us in waves today as a boundary hangs up and southern moisture gets involved with it. Heavy rain is a good likelihood and we have to be on guard for a few strong storms. Here is your daily dose of tracking toys…

The wet weather keeps on keeping on through Thursday and into early Friday. Rainfall numbers during this time can easily top 2″ in several areas…

As we head into the weekend, we turn our attention to a system diving in from the northwest. This will bring a renewed threat for showers and strong storms later Saturday, with a shot of cooler air behind it for Sunday and Monday…

Could a kiss of frost follow that by Monday morning? We shall see.

A few days ago, the Ensembles were all showing a drier pattern over the next two weeks, but we said to believe it when you see it. Well, the Ensembles keep singing a different tune and are now back to showing above normal precipitation for the next few weeks…

Until this multi-year pattern breaks, persistence forecasting really is the way to go.

Enjoy the day and take care.

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Time posted: 1:57 am

A Few Storms Rumble In

Good Tuesday, folks. We have a weak cold front dropping into the region from the northwest and this is bringing a few boomers back to the bluegrass state. This kicks off a pattern featuring more widespread showers and storms through the rest of the week.

Temps today are in the mid and upper 70s with a local 80 possible. Southwest winds gust up ahead of our weak front, with a broken line of showers and storms moving in from the north by late today into this evening. A few of the storms may be strong.

Here’s the latest Severe Weather Outlook from the SPC…

Here are your tracking tools for the day…

Showers and thunderstorms look to become more widespread Wednesday and Thursday as a southern system throws moisture back to the north…

Rainfall totals from the models continue to climb through the rest of the week…

I told you not to believe those “Dry” Ensembles forecast from the past few days. 😉

Have a great day and take care.

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Time posted: 1:16 am

Warm Temps Before Storms Return

Good Monday, everyone. Here’s hoping you had a great Easter Weekend! Temps are on the rise over the next few days, but thunderstorm chances aren’t too far away. Those chances look to increase for the middle and end of the week.

In the near-term, skies are mostly sunny today as thermometers warm into the 70s.

Tuesday looks similar, but there is a small chance for a late day shower or thunderstorm going up. This is just ahead of a weak cold front dropping in from the northwest…

That front will combine with a slow-moving low to our south, to give us scattered showers and thunderstorms from Wednesday through Friday…

It’s interesting to note the GFS Ensembles and European Ensembles are both showing drier than normal conditions around here for the next 2 weeks…

GFS Ensembles

European Ensembles

I will believe that when I see it, but it’s one of the very few times in the past several years we have seen a drier than normal pattern on the models. You will also notice the much above normal rain in Texas and Oklahoma. The wetter those areas get, the more that’s likely to temper any summer heat that can form.

Have a great Monday and take care.

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