Time posted: 1:25 am

A Little Rain and A Lot Cooler

Good Monday, folks. A true September cold front is rolling across the state today, bringing a few showers and storms and much cooler temps. This is the first of two fronts set to impact our region this week, but more heat is lurking to end the month. In addition to all this, I’m going to throw another seasonal model your way as it looks deper into fall and winter. Woot!

Today’s front is bringing some much needed rain, but this isn’t a soaker and some areas won’t see very much at all. Still, it’s better than nothing. Here are your Monday trackers…

Much cooler winds are blowing and these winds are gusty as temps stay in the 70s. With clearing skies tonight, temps may drop into the upper 40s and low 50s for many areas. That sets the stage for a very nice Tuesday with readings in the mid 70s for many. Lows by Wednesday morning should be in similar range with Tuesday.

The next system is then set to impact the area later Wednesday and Thursday with our next chance for some rain…

Temps continue to run close to normal until the weekend when another surge of September sizzle moves in. This will likely last into early October and could give us near record or record highs. Though, this setup isn’t looking quite as strong as before. One of the reasons could be because the tropics continue to be on fire…

I don’t think we’ve seen the last threat to the United States.

Let’s talk about the rest of fall and upcoming winter. As you know, one of the first things I look at is the state of the oceans across the globe. The water temps continue to run warm across pretty much the entire Northern Hemisphere. One area that adds an odd to the look of things is along the Equatorial Pacific as a string of cooler water has developed…

That’s one of three items of interest to me. The other is the warm water off the east coast and all that warm water off the west coast into the Gulf of Alaska. The warm water off the east coast was, in my mind, one of the reasons that kept that ridge so strong across the southeast last winter. The water there is beginning to cool and is much cooler than this same point last year, arguing for a weaker ridge or no ridge at all.

The water off the west coast to Alaska is MUCH warmer than this same point last year. The seasonal models continue to keep that water warm and continue to cool the water off the east coast. Here’s the latest JAMSTEC ocean temp anomalies for December-February…

That warm pool in the Gulf of Alaska is a thing of beauty for winter loves and was the prime driver in those harsh winters of 13/14 and 14/15.

If you look at the Atlantic, you can see the warmest waters are well out into the middle of the Atlantic. That would argue for a weak to non-existent WAR (Western Atlantic Ridge).

Here’s how the JAMSTEC sees this fall and winter for temps and precip…

Given how hot this September is, the model is suggesting things turn much colder relative to normal for the second half of fall. It also suggests a wetter pattern taking shape. You can also see the winter temps with the cold controlling much of the country with near normal precip around here. Based on the ocean profiles it’s forecasting, that makes sense. Obviously, it’s a seasonal model to be taken with a grain of salt, but they do provide clues for us to look at. AND… it would follow the 1939 analog this fall is already mirroring around here.

Make it a great Monday and take care.

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Time posted: 1:39 am

Here Comes A Cold Front

Good Sunday, everyone. We have an honest to goodness cold front working into the region late tonight and Monday. This will bring a chance for showers and storms with much cooler air set to follow for the first half of the new week. There’s another front waiting on us before the week is over, then we sizzle… Again.

Before we get into the weather discussion part of the blog,I want to make sure to mention what’s coming up on The Weather Channel tonight. Storm Stories is doing a special on the March 2nd, 2012 West Liberty tornado. The program airs at 8pm and 11pm, with the West Liberty portion of the show airing in the final half hour. Your friendly weatherdude will be making an appearance to talk about that devastating twister.

Let us begin with what’s shaking on this Sunday. Temps are warming into the upper 80s to 90ish for much of the Commonwealth. Winds will begin to increase as clouds roll in from the west. An impressive line of showers and storms will likely show up to our west and this could get into parts of the state by evening. Here are your tracking toys for the day…

A broken line of showers and thunderstorms will then sweep across the rest of the state late tonight into Monday. This isn’t a soaking rain and many areas may not see much, but we will take what we can get. Winds will be gusty as normal late September temps move in here. Monday temps will come down into the 70s, but lows by Tuesday morning may reach the upper 40s in some areas…

Tuesday afternoon looks awesome with low humidity and 70s.

Another cold front will work our way late Wednesday and Thursday with our next chance for some showers and storms. Could another one try to sneak in next weekend? A few models are trying to show this…

GFS

ICON

This will keep our temps near normal, but the heat is on next weekend into the following week as another huge ridge develops across the eastern half of the country. 90 degree temps are a good bet and we could be talking about record highs into early October. As I posted yesterday, this fits perfectly with September and October of 1939 when record highs happened through week two of October. Here’s my blurb from last week…

1939 featured a whopping 18 days of 90+ and was very dry. The rest of the fall turned much colder and the following winter turned very cold and gave us one of the snowiest winters on record with nearly 40″.

Obviously, no two years are exactly the same, but the fall similarities are striking. I will have another blowout post focusing more on fall and winter with my next update.

Have a great Sunday and take care.

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Time posted: 1:37 am

A Toasty Weekend Before A Rain Threat

Good Saturday, folks. It’s another warm weekend here in the bluegrass state and we have plenty more warmth to go through before we can get to true fall. That may not happen until we are deep into October. Between now and then, it’s more of the same with a few exceptions. One of those comes Sunday night and Monday in the form of a cold front.

I will get to that front in a bit, but let’s start with the weather out there today. Highs are deep into the 80s and should manage 90 for some with a mix of sun and clouds. Blah, blah, blah.

Sunday looks like a very windy and warm day as clouds increase in the afternoon and evening. Those clouds are ahead of our cold front that will have a line of showers and thunderstorms with it. This looks like the first of two systems set to impact our region next week. The second arrives around Thursday. Watch how the models handle these systems…

GFS

ICON

Canadian

That run of the Canadian actually shows three systems bringing, at least, some rain into the state. Temps look much better during this time, but those numbers won’t stay near normal for long. A heat wave is likely to develop for the last few days of September into early October. As we bake, the west turns very cold…

That pattern can produce record highs around our part of the world.

Earlier this week, I broke down some of the prior years that match up well with this hot and mainly dry fall pattern. Out of all those, 1939 looks to take control with the early October heat.

Make it a great day and take care.

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