Time posted: 1:36 am

It’s A Busy Pattern Taking Shape

Good Friday, everyone. It’s an absolutely gorgeous end to the week and that rolls into the start of the upcoming weekend. From there, we watch a tropical system in the Gulf, a potent cold front arriving on Monday and a much colder than normal pattern taking shape.

Temps this morning are below freezing in some areas,but a nice recovery is on the way this afternoon. Temps will be into the 60s this afternoon with a partly to mostly sunny sky showing up.

A tropical storm down in the Gulf of Mexico is rolling toward the Florida Panhandle today. Here’s the latest from the National Hurricane Center…

cone graphic

That system will throw clouds our way for Saturday and Sunday and could even bring a few showers into the region. The best chance is across the southeast late Saturday into very early Sunday.

Temps this weekend turn mild with highs generally in the 70s.

Another powerful cold front then rumbles across the state Monday into Monday night. This will likely produce a line of showers and strong storms that races from west to east. High winds are possible with this setup…

Heavy rains are also possible with these storms. Check out some of the totals from the GFS…

Much colder air sweeps in behind the boundary with temps in the 50s for Tuesday.

From there, we watch the setup for late next week. This will feature another major dip in the jet stream and blast of cold air coming into the country. This is likely to spawn a storm system that may work into our region about a week from now. That system may have some cold air to work with, so that may be fun to watch.

I think the bigger push of cold comes right after that and this is the one that has a shot to bring a touch of winter into the region for the final week of the month. The European Ensembles are growing a little louder with this potential…

I will hook you all up with another update later today. Until then, make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 7:32 pm

Thursday Evening Update

Good evening, folks. We are putting the wraps on a very nice fall day, but our weather pattern continues to look very active going forward. As we look ahead, we find a very potent cold front arriving early next week, with additional fronts to follow.

Temps later tonight will drop into the upper 20s and low 30s in several areas. That will lead to a light freeze, so take any precautions you need to take.

Friday into Saturday continue to look very, very good. Milder winds will be blowing as we watch a tropical system down in the Gulf. This heads toward the Florida Panhandle then toward the Carolinas. Here’s the latest from the National Hurricane Center…

cone graphic

That may throw a little rain into the eastern half of the state, especially the southeast, late Saturday into early Sunday…

Monday is an interesting day with a powerhouse of a cold front sweeping eastward across the state. This will bring high winds and the potential for strong storms…

Some very heavy rains will be associated with these storms, adding to our already above normal rains this fall.

Much colder air sweeps in behind this front, likely knocking highs back into the 50s for Tuesday.

Additional blasts of cold are setting up for the rest of the month and this pattern is likely to maintain itself deep into November. We’ve been talking about this for a long time now. Can we get an early taste of winter weather out of this setup? Yes.

Let’s focus on the system coming in late next week. The new Euro shows a potent storm becoming cutoff over top of us…

That air under that system shows up as cold enough to produce flakes…

Every pattern now agrees with this much colder than pattern. Even the often conservative Euro Ensembles show a series of deep troughs into the eastern part of the country through Halloween…

That’s a lot of cold, my friends.

Make it a great evening and take care.

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Time posted: 1:38 am

There’s A Lot Going On

Good Thursday, everyone. It’s a pretty loaded pattern taking shape across the country over the next few weeks. We are tracking a tropical system, potent cold fronts and an overall setup that looks more like winter than the month of October.

Let’s start with today and stumble forward. Temps are generally back in the 50s for highs with a mix of sun and clouds. As clouds clear tonight, temps drop to the lowest readings of the fall, so far. Upper 20s and low 30s could bring a freeze to many…

You can see areas where the model believes will keep the clouds. If the clouds linger longer, temps stay up several degrees.

Friday looks phenomenal with temps mainly in the 60s and a mix of sun and clouds. Soak it up!

Our weekend forecast has a lot do with what happens in the Gulf of Mexico. I was telling y’all a few days ago that something tropical may get cranking here and sure enough, that looks to be the case. Regardless of how strong it gets, this is one moisture rich system…

That system likely heads toward the Florida Panhandle over the next few days. Here are the tracks from the Hurricane Models…

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/96L_tracks_latest.png

Some offshoot rain, at least, from this may make it all the way into the bluegrass state from late Saturday into Sunday. The best chance would be across the eastern half of the state.

Our next system then comes at us quickly on Monday in the form of a potent cold front. This is going to be a very active front with high winds and the potential for a line of strong storms sweeping eastward across the state…

Much colder air comes in behind that and this looks to become the common theme for the rest of the month.

The European Ensembles continue to indicate the flakes potential around here before the month is over…

I will have another update later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

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