Time posted: 2:09 am

Rain To A Winter Weather Event

Good Monday, everybody. It’s full steam ahead toward a winter weather event moving in for Tuesday and Tuesday night. This will likely bring snow and sleet to a good portion of the region and the potential is there for several inches for some. That said, I’m still trying to figure out exactly where to draw the lines, so no WST just yet. That may change with the next update. 🙂

We have rain pushing across the state today as mild temps continue. There’s even the chance for a little bit of thunder.

As far as the Tuesday-Tuesday night winter weather is concerned, let’s keep this map rolling…

Before we take a look at the latest models,here are a few thoughts:

  • Temps crash from west to east tonight into early Tuesday.
  • Rain will change to a wintry mix of sleet and snow then to snow as the cold moves in and a weak wave develops along the boundary.
  • Exactly where this happens still has some wiggle room, but much of the precipitation is into central and eastern Kentucky when this takes place.
  • Snowfall numbers of a few to several inches will be possible, especially in the southeast.
  • Sleet may also show up and if it does, it will cut into the snowfall numbers.
  • Whatever happens with this, it’s going to have a big time cutoff line on the western side of it all.
  • A First Call For Snowfall map comes later today.

As far as the models are concerned, we didn’t see much change in the respective models compared to what they were showing earlier.

The GFS continues to show a more widespread event…

GFS Snow Map

The Euro continues to be less widespread and less impressed…

Euro Snow Map

I won’t lie, the Euro was the only thing that kept me from pulling the trigger with this update. I have to give it some respect, but it’s still a nice snow in the southeast.

The Canadian Model is a little more like the GFS…  Canadian Snow Map

The Short Range Canadian continues to hit this harder than most of the models…

Short Range Canadian Snow Map

Here’s the sleet map from that same run

The NAM is in a similar boat…

NAM Snow Map

NAM Sleet Map

I will have updates later today. Until then, here are your Monday rain tracking toys to keep you company…

toys…

Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 7:51 pm

Sunday Evening Update

Good evening, everyone. Rain is getting ready to develop and roll our way, but the focus is on a big temp drop and the potential for some Tuesday into Tuesday night. The exact location of a swath of accumulating snow is still to be determined. 🙂

I have no changes to my earlier map for the best snowfall odds…

Some of the late afternoon guidance shifted quite a bit farther to the west, but a few other models held tight to a more eastern and southeastern event. I really don’t like the 18z runs of any particular model on any given day because they seem to be more jumpy than the typical 0z or 12z runs.

Still, they can sniff out trends and that’s what we will be watching for on the 0z runs that will start shortly.

Here’s a sampling of the 18z runs of the models…

GFS

GFS Snowfall

Short Range Canadian only goes through Tuesday evening…

Snow map from that run…

The NAM…

The snowfall map from the NAM continues to be on steroids…

The European Model…

Snowfall from the European Model…

We are now within the 48 hour window, but I would like to see better model agreement before putting out a First Call Map. Here’s hoping we see that with the next round of runs.

I will have all that in my next update later tonight. Have a good one and take care.

14 Comments

Time posted: 1:40 pm

Sunday Afternoon Snow Thoughts

Good afternoon, everyone. The setup for the next few days continues to look interesting as a wave of low pressure develops along a strong cold front. This is something we’ve been highlighting for a week now and I can finally get a little more specific on who has the best chance to see snow on the ground.

Here are some headlines for the next few days:

  • Rain develops tonight and takes us into Monday.
  • Temps will be mild and may approach 60 on a gusty southwest wind.
  • The cold front moves from west to east Monday night and Tuesday with crashing temps behind this.
  • A wave of low pressure develops along the front, bringing a stripe of accumulating snow from Texas to New England.
  • Which part of Kentucky gets in on this depends on where this front is when the low develops. Right now, areas of eastern and southeastern Kentucky have the best chance at picking up on accumulating snows.
  • There’s the chance for several inches of snow to fall in the southeast and this could be our first THREAT level event of the season.
  • There will be a sharp cutoff on the western side of the snow. Exactly where that is remains to be seen and a few miles difference could be the difference in no snow and a few inches of snow.
  • I expect more model changes as we get closer to this system.

Here’s my initial look at the areas with the best chance of putting snow on the ground…

Again, that’s just my initial map and I assure you my thoughts will change some as we get closer. I may even get a First Call For Snowfall map out later tonight.

As far as the models are concerned, we are still seeing some subtle changes from run to run of each model. Let’s take a little look…

GFS

GFS Snowfall Map

European Model

European Model Snowfall Map

NAM

The NAM Snowfall Map appears to be on steroids..

Canadian

Canadian Snowfall Map

As you can see, the models all have the same general idea, but differ on placement and amounts. That’s typical of an event. We are getting to within 48 hours, we should see the models lock in.

I will have another update later today. Until then, make it a good one and take care.

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