Time posted: 2:22 am

Watching A Late Weekend System

Good Saturday, everyone. Our weekend is starting out on a VERY nice note with plenty of sunshine and near normal temps, but we’ve got a party crasher to track. This is a system rolling in later Sunday and Monday, bringing showers and another shot of chill.

Our Saturday will feature temps deep into the 50s in many areas, with some 60s in the west and south. Skies stay sunny with just a few high clouds later in the day.

Clouds will increase on Sunday as temps spike into the 60s. A few showers develop later in the day and continue through Monday, when a rumble of thunder tries to jump in. Winds will be very gusty as temps come crashing down as low pressure moves through…

A brief chill down moves in behind that, but milder air surges back in for the middle and end of the week. That period looks mainly dry, but another system gets ready to sweep in here by next weekend, kicking off another busy period.

You can see this active pattern setting up on the various Ensembles rain numbers for the next few weeks…

GFS

European

Have a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 1:44 am

A Nice Looking First Weekend Of Spring

Good Friday, everyone. Our hail producing showers appeared right on schedule yesterday as colder air pressed into the state. This seasonal brand of chill hangs tough to start the weekend, before temps start to climb. All of this continues to be part of a very up and down pattern as we go through the end of March.

Today will find a mix of sun and clouds as another weak system works in from the north and northeast. This will bring some rain and snow showers across areas of Ohio and West Virginia, but should largely avoid Kentucky. I can’t rule out one or two of those sneaking into the far east at some point…

Highs today reach the upper 40s to low 50s in many areas, with middle 50s in the west. Winds will continue to add a chill to the air.

Lows by Saturday morning drop deep into the 20s, but the day looks really nice with afternoon temps reaching the 50s. 60 is possible in the west and south.

Clouds increase on Sunday as thermometers head toward the 60-65 degree range. A few showers develop in the west and overspread the region through Monday…

The air behind that is a little colder than normal, but readings should bounce back very quickly by the middle of the week. That’s when temps take off and make a run at 70, but that would only be temporary. Watch how another system introduces some chill back into the mix to close out March and usher in April…

As we look toward the rest of spring and into Summer, we know an El Nino is ongoing and forecast to get stronger. The CAS model is a seasonal model that’s constructed from analogs based off soil moisture. Obviously, our region is wet as is much of the country.

The CAS  has a cooler than normal and wetter than normal look from April through June…

If we go from June through August, we find more of the same…

I can certainly buy the wet part, but I’m not sold on the really cool part. Like last year, with so much water in the ground, nighttime lows will likely be skewed milder than normal. That skews the overall temps, too.

Make it a great Friday and take care.

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Time posted: 1:46 am

Chilly Showers Work Through

Good Thursday, folks. We have a cold front rolling across the state on this first full day of spring and it’s bringing a little bit of ugly. Gusty showers and chilly temps are on tap for much of the region. As we head into the weekend, better weather moves in, but it doesn’t look to stick around long.

Let’s focus on today before we get to that weekend.

Highs may stay in the 40s for much of central and eastern Kentucky with gusty showers around. A few breaks may develop in the afternoon and that could fire up some convective showers or even a thunderstorm. I’ve seen that type of setup produce some soft hail. Here’s regional radar to follow the action…

Friday will find a shot of chillier air moving in, but it comes with only  a few clouds. Winds will continue to be gusty as temps reach the low 50s for many, with higher numbers west.

Saturday starts very cold with temps in the 20s, but ends with highs in the 50s with a gorgeous sky.

A few clouds will increase on Sunday as southwest winds increase ahead of our next system. Showers will develop across the west and roll eastward on Monday. This would bring another shot of colder air behind it…

Several other systems will roll across the country, bringing some major temperature swings our way. Check those swings out into early April…

I’ll talk more about spring and summer over the next few days. Have a good one and take care.

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