Time posted: 7:24 pm

Monday Evening Blowout

Good evening, folks. We are putting the wraps on another awesome weather day here in the bluegrass state, but changes are a brewin’. A potent system dives in here from the northwest late Tuesday, bringing an increase in showers and storms and a shot of cold behind it.

Temps ahead of this boundary should hit the 70s on Tuesday as winds gust from the southwest. Those gusty winds take us through Tuesday night and could reach 30mph at times. That’s when showers and thunderstorms roll across the state along with another big temp crash.

Those crashing temps will combine with a northwest wind and leftover clouds and showers to give us a very chilly Wednesday. Temps should have a tough time getting out of the 40s…

There’s even a wind chill showing up…

This will set the stage for another round of frost and light freeze come Thursday and Friday mornings.

The setup that follows this has a lot of action with it. It’s one that will be pretty mild for a bit as the predominant flow comes from the southwest. This is also a very moist flow with a couple of storm systems rolling our way from the west and southwest. There could even be something tropical trying to develop in the western Gulf of Mexico.

The European Model brings in the first round of showers and storms on Sunday…

The rest of this big storm system then shows up by Monday and Tuesday…

Here’s the GFS…

Much colder air then comes in behind that and this is something we have been targeting since back in September. Many of the analogs I outlined for you guys did have a distinct turn to colder than normal and even some winter weather in late October.

That’s exactly what the GFS keeps showing in some form or fashion. Here’s the latest run for late next week…

The Ensembles have really flipped to showing this deepening trough across the east over the next few weeks…

EURO

GFS

Interesting times are setting up! Make it a great evening and take care.

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Time posted: 1:37 am

A Very Active Pattern Takes Shape

Good Monday, weather weenies. We are rolling into a brand spanking new week with some very nice weather. But, that’s not going to last very long as another storm system moves in over the next few days. This kicks off a very active setup, featuring several cold fronts, rounds of rain and colder than normal shots of air.

As we usually do, let’s begin with the precious present. It’s awesome. Ok, that about covers it. 🙂

Temps for Tuesday spike on a gusty southwesterly wind as clouds increase. Those clouds are ahead of a potent system diving in from the northwest. That system has a nice shot of cold air pushing it and this will pick up low pressure coming from the south, forming a big storm along the east coast.

This will bring showers and a few storms in here late Tuesday into Tuesday night then wraparound clouds, showers and very chilly air for Wednesday…

If low clouds and showers linger through Wednesday, temps may drop into the 40s and stay there for several areas. Watch the NAM temp drop on Wednesday…

Clearing skies will allow for another frost and light freeze by Thursday morning and Friday morning.

Temps will really warm this weekend as a case of Indian Summer settles in for a few. This is on a moist southwesterly flow that will be very active, likely sending a few big storm systems rolling our way into next week…

Above normal rainfall is likely over the next few weeks, as the cold air plunges in behind each passing storm system. I’m going to continue to watch the final week of October into the first week of November for the potential for an early season touch of winter weather in our region.

I will have another long-winded update later this evening, so check back. Make it a great day and take care.

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Time posted: 7:26 pm

Sunday Evening Update

Good evening, folks. I wanted to drop by for an update to get y’all caught up on a very chilly and busy pattern for the next few weeks. We have a series of cold fronts on the way and these fronts should bring gusty winds, showers and storms and some major real deal fall chill.

Since I miss you guys with the Saturday update, here’s a blowout post to make up for it. 🙂

Before we look ahead, let’s look back on our frosty morning…

That’s back to back mornings with temps below freezing for many.

Our Monday looks awesome with a chilly morning and mild afternoon. Clouds will filter in during the afternoon as we get ready for our winter looks setup for late Tuesday into Wednesday. A potent system dives in from the northwest and brings a shot of October chill with it. At the same time, low pressure develops to our south and hooks up with the disturbance from the northwest. This cranks out a big storm going up the east coast…

That brings showers and a few storms to us late Tuesday and Tuesday night with some wraparound clouds and showers possible into Wednesday. If the clouds hang tough, that’s a cold day with temps that may not get out of the 40s for many areas…

Another frost and a light freeze would then be possible by Thursday and Friday mornings.

Temps should rebound quickly by the weekend as another powerhouse of a storm system cranks to our west. This will bring showers and storms our way and the setup may evening produce a few strong storms. As that passed by, watch the cold surge back in…

You can see a second surge of cold on the way at the tail end of that run of the European Model.

The European Model is showing quite a bit of rain over the next 10 days…

The GFS shows this first storm system and then the next system with another blast of cold and even a touch of winter…

The GFS Ensembles are showing the active pattern with above normal rainfall over these next two weeks…

It would be something to see this fall average above normal rainfall as a whole, even with the record driest September factored in. Extremes, my friends.

I’ll see you guys later tonight for another update. Have a good one and take care.

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