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Your Super Bowl Sunday Forecast In Song

Good afternoon, gang. Here’s a little different twist on your Super Bowl Sunday forecast…

Ok, so the last one is kind of a joke, But, you will get some snow Sunday night into Monday morning. :)

Smile a little bit, people!

Have a great rest of your day and take care.

 

57 Comments

Super Bowl Sorrow For Snow Lovers

Good Saturday, folks. Our Ohio Valley winter storm is still on track and that track appears to be right on top of the bluegrass state. That’s a path that isn’t good news to snow lovers across our region. It doesn’t mean we won’t get some snow from this storm, it just means the big deal snows will likely fall to our north.

Some thoughts…

- Clouds will roll across the state today and we could see a touch of light snow and light rain develop from west to east this evening into tonight. That will be interesting to see how that leading band develops.

- Low pressure is likely to track right on top of us for Super Bowl Sunday. It is interesting to note, the Canadian Model did slip a little farther to the south from it’s earlier run…

Canadian

- Still, it looks like any overnight and Sunday morning mix would go quickly to all rain with gusty winds joining the mix during the day.

- As the low goes by, temps crash hard Sunday night with a period of snow likely into Monday morning. Temps may drop into the teens by then. After all that rain and some snow coming down… a quick ice up of roads will be very possible.

- Light snow would make the transition to snow showers on Monday as very cold temps and windy weather make for a nasty day.

That’s how things look right now… does that totally rule out the potential for this thing to come back to the south some? No, but the odds of that happening this late in the game are very small.

Looking down the road toward Wednesday and Thursday… the models give snow lovers another chance at disappointment…

The Canadian.

Canadian 2

GFS

GFS 2

At least that storm is starting out on the Gulf Coast and would have plenty of room to trend northward. ;)

I will update things later today. Have a good one and take care.

76 Comments

Friday Evening Update

 Good evening, everyone. I wanted to drop by for another quick update on the winter storm blowing into the Ohio Valley late this weekend. Here ya go…

- A period of light snow may develop from west to east Saturday night into Sunday morning.

- Our storm system continues to look to take a northern track across the bluegrass state. That would push the main impact from snow to our north…

SPECIAL

- Rain Sunday afternoon and evening would then change to snow Sunday night into Monday. That’s when accumulations will be very possible.

- Arctic cold funnels in here for Monday on a strong northwesterly wind flow.

Can the track of the low still change? Yes, but all signs currently point toward the low coming right across Kentucky.

A full update comes your way tonight. Take care.

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Quick Thoughts On The Weekend

Good Friday afternoon, gang. Snow showers and flurries continue to wind down and now it’s time to fully focus on our Super Bowl Sunday storm system. We’re just now getting within the 48 hour window I’ve been yapping about all week. This is the time to really concentrate on model trends.

The first set of runs during this window are showing a low tracking right over Kentucky. Here’s the GFS…

GFS

That is not a very strong low at all and the track of weaker lows have a tendency to change because it doesn’t take much to push them around. As is, the above model shows snow to rain to snow…

GFS 2

That would take the best snows north of the Ohio River, but would still bring the risk of accumulating snows to the entire state.

The Canadian Model has adopted the Kentucky low scenario…

Canadian

That also features a weak low that would produce similar results to what the GFS shows.

It’s worth repeating… the track of those weak lows will often show up differently than modeled as we get closer. Tonight’s runs should really shed much more light on that possibility.

I will have another update later today. Make it a good one and take care.

102 Comments

Tracking The Weekend Potential

Good Friday to one and all. We have snow showers and flurries flying around across parts of the region early today. This action will give way to a bigger potential lurking for Super Bowl Sunday into early Monday. How high that threat is where you live is the million dollar question. Buckle up and let’s get after it.

Snow showers this morning can cause some light accumulations that can create slick spots on area roads. This isn’t a widespread accumulating snow, but more of a local scale event since we are dealing with snow SHOWERS. You can get snow to coat one part of town with the other side of town seeing nothing… it’s one of those deals. I will have your tracking tools in a bit.

Let’s get into the late weekend potential. The model that showed the best consistency from yester morning to last night was the Canadian Model. It continues with the southern tracking low across the Tennessee Valley…

Canadian

A track like that would put down a healthy swath of accumulating snow across the bluegrass state…

Canadian 2Before you fall head over heels in love with our neighbor to the north, you should check out the GFS. The model continues to show a different solution with each and every run it spits out. The latest run is a little farther north with the low over Kentucky…

GFS

That setup would take the heaviest snows north of the Ohio River with rain changing to accumulating snow on the backside of the departing storm. Again… the GFS has shown every solution possible with this storm. That does not mean the above solution won’t work out, but give us some consistency!!

It’s really not like any of the models are a model of consistency. The European Model has jumped around just as much, but the latest run is close to what the GFS is showing…

EuroLet me repeat myself for the millionth time this week… don’t get caught up on the changes with each model run. Today will bring us to within 48 hours of the event and this is when we should start to see more consistency with each model. I suspect that may not come until the evening runs, but we shall see how things look with the 12z run.

It all boils down to this: If you want a big snow here in Kentucky, you want the low to stay on a southern track across Tennessee. If you don’t want a lot of snow, you want the low to move right on top of us. Which one of those wins out? That’s the question we will try to answer later today, but it is a very fine line the models are walking with either solution.

Personally, I would take somewhere in between. The snow lover in me would like some snow, but the “I don’t want to have to go to work on Super Bowl Sunday for the second year in a row” side of me hopes we don’t get a lot. Oh, the internal conflict!! ;)

I leave you with some toys to track our early day shot of snow showers…

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road

US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort

US60 @ US127

US 127 @ Frankfort Frankfort

US127 @ Frankfort KY

US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
US60 @ US460

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown
I75 NB @ MP 127

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

Bluegrass Parkway Bardstown

Western Ky Parkway/I-65 Elizabethtown

I-65 MP 32

I-64 @ 3rd St. Exit
Louisville
I-64 @ 3rd St. Exit

Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway
Louisville
Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway

I-64 @ I-264
Louisville
I-64 @ I-264

I-264 @ Freedom Way
Near Louisville International Airport
I-264 @ Freedom Way

 

I-75 at MP 36
London
I-75 @ MP 36

I-75 at MP 23
Corbin
I-75 @ MP 23

See you later today with updates. Take care.

90 Comments

Thursday Evening Update

Good Thursday evening. Temps are taking a big tumble as snow showers and flurries get set to take over parts of central and eastern Kentucky. That could cause some issues for Friday morning travelers. That’s a smaller story compared to what looks to be heading our way by Super Bowl Sunday.

I am thisclose to pulling the trigger on a Winter Storm Threat. That will likely happen tonight if things continue to look like they do now. How do they look at the moment? The WPC has already placed much of the region in a slight to moderate risk of 4″+ of snow by Sunday evening…

HPCThat doesn’t include anything that falls Sunday night into Monday.

Here’s a preview of what some of the models are saying…

The European Model snowfall forecast…

EuroThe European Ensembles are just a tad farther south with the heavy snow band…

Euro 2What if both of those are a little too far north with all that? I’m beginning to think that’s a real possibility. We’re seeing a trend developing with the track of the low. One that takes this storm northeast into Tennessee and then due eastward with even a fade toward the southeast once it gets to the Smokies. The Canadian Model was showing that earlier today and the GFS is heading that way…

GFS GFS 2I don’t put much stock in the NAM until within a day or so of an event, but it is doing something similar with the low by Sunday night…

NAMMoral of the story… the potential for a winter storm to impact our region is increasing for Sunday and early Monday. I will update things and may pull the trigger later tonight. ;)

Enjoy the evening and take care.

99 Comments

Super Bowl Sunday Snow Potential

Good Thursday afternoon, gang. Our weekend is just around the corner and it appears the odds for snow are increasing across our region. We have a couple of systems to watch. One is blowing through here now and will bring snow showers tonight and early Friday. The other is the Super Bowl storm system we’ve been tracking here for more than a week.

Winds will continue to crank this afternoon as temps spike then crash behind a cold front. A few showers will be with us and those will change to snow showers late this evening. A northwesterly wind flow will set up and that’s likely to bring a decent period of snow showers and flurries late tonight into Friday morning.

Some light accumulations will be possible across the central and east…

GFS Snow

Another morning of slick roads will be possible. Temps on Friday will drop through the 20s  with teens for wind chill readings.

That brings us to the weekend storm system. The Canadian Model had been the lone holdout in taking our low farther north into the Ohio Valley. That changed with the latest run…

Canadian

Canadian 2It’s only one run of one model, so temper those expectations. ;)

The GFS continues to go back and forth a bit with how it wants to play the system. Here’s the latest snowfall map from that model…

GFS Snow 2

As I’ve been saying for the past few days, let’s get this thing inside 48 hours to see what kind of continuity we’re getting from the models. Throwing snowfall forecasts out there at this point would be absurd. Do we have the potential for a winter storm? Yes. Is it a for sure thing? No.

Very cold air follows that up for Monday and Tuesday and then another system tries to take aim at us by the middle of the week. That one will have even colder air to work with.

I leave you with regional radar…

Another update comes later today. Take care.

88 Comments

Winter Coming On Strong

Good Thursday and welcome to a very active day of weather. We have a potent system dropping in from the northwest and this cause some wild swings out there. All of this continues to be part of a very active winter period and it’s about to kick it up a notch. Super Bowl Sunday continues to look very, very interesting. More on that in a bit.

First things first and that’s the clipper system diving across the Ohio Valley today. I’ve pretty much covered all the basics of this for several days now, but here’s a breakdown of what to expect.

- The day may start with a band of showers across central and northern Kentucky. The ground is frozen, so watch for the potential for some icy spots… especially in the north.

- Temps will quickly rise toward 50 by late morning and early afternoon as winds crank to 35mph to 40mph at times.

- The front swings through and our temps drop quickly from northwest to southeast. Readings will drop through the 30s this evening with some rain and snow showers.

- A better shot of snow showers and flurries will be with us overnight into early Friday. That could cause some minor accumulations across the central and east.

- Friday’s a very cold day with temps mainly in the 20s and wind chills in the teens.

Ok, let’s get to what you are all waiting for… the potential for snow on Super Bowl Sunday. We are still outside of my 48 hour window of when I expect the models to lock on to one solution. The GFS still hasn’t spit out the same solution twice, but it’s latest run has snow lovers going crazy…

GFS

GFS Snow 2

The European Model isn’t as snowy as the GFS, but it is still showing a similar look…

Euro

Euro 2That run is very close to becoming a bigger event on a similar scale to what the GFS is showing.

I’m going to say the exact same thing I’ve said for days now (stop me if you’ve heard this one before), don’t get too caught up one run of any one model. Obviously, if the above solutions work out,  we would have a healthy snowstorm around here. Again… temper your emotions for a bit longer until we can get a little more consistency in the model runs.

If we can put snow on the ground this weekend, temps by Monday and Tuesday could drop toward single digits or even below zero.

Another snow maker will try to develop by the middle of next week with another one trying to pop a few days later. Each will have the potential to tap additional arctic temps.

I will have updates later today. Take care.

70 Comments

Update On The Weekend

Good evening, friends and neighbors. It’s all eyes on the weekend system and how we are seeing a similar trend developing among the models. Before that, we can’t short change the clipper moving in here on Thursday.

That system will provide a quick spike in temps ahead of it and a bigger crash behind it. Gusty winds of 30mph to 40mph will also be possible. Rain showers will then change to snow showers Thursday evening into Thursday night. I’m also seeing a bit more of an upslope component taking shape on Friday. That simply means our northwesterly wind will try to squeeze out some pretty good snow showers across central and eastern Kentucky.

Slick roads are a possibility on Friday. Winds will continue to be gusty as temps drop during the day. Single digit wind chills are possible.

With this clipper tending deeper, that is likely to impact the storm system coming. How so? It could very well force this system to scoot eastward across the Tennessee Valley. That seems to be a growing trend with the latest computer models. Here’s the European Model…

Euro

That’s a solution the models were showing a few days ago and the one that makes the most meteorological sense, right now. That kind of track would try to put down some snow across the state…

Euro 2

The new GFS is similar with a general 2″-4″…

GFS

I will keep telling you to not get caught up on model snowfall forecasts because they will change with each run. I keep focusing on the overall trends and the setup and so should you. :)

That would unleash some very cold air behind it for Monday. The same model run (and the actual pattern) suggests additional systems trying to scoot across the Tennessee Valley next week. For fun, here’s the total snowfall through next week to prove the point…

Euro Snow

That’s all I have for you crazy kids. I will update things later tonight. Enjoy the evening and take care.

42 Comments

Wednesday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, folks. The temperatures out there today are a little colder than I originally thought they would be. Of course, that happens when you start the day off with some single digits. While that’s nice and all, the focus of the forecast is on a clipper for Thursday and the potential for a bigger system this weekend.

The clipper zips in here quickly on Thursday with very gusty winds and falling temperatures. Winds may reach 35mph at times. Gusty showers will be ahead of it with some snow showers and flurries flying behind our front. The best chance comes Thursday night into Friday morning and we could see some light accumulations…

GFS Snow

Minor accumulations will be possible to start the day on Friday. Winds will continue to be gusty and that will make the temps in the 20s feel like the teens.

Our weekend system continues to show up as clear as mud. The GFS runs 4 times a day and it has yet to show the same solution twice with the weekend storm. Last night it had a strong storm cutting into the Great Lakes. It’s latest run shows no such thing…

GFS

Taken at face value, that’s a 1″-4″ snow on that model. That’s something I wouldn’t be doing with any run of the GFS or any of the models at this point. Still… someone on Sunday will spout out these nonsensical words ” The GFS nailed this system several days ago”.  When a model spits out 50 different solutions, it’s bound to get one of them right. :)

It’s not as If the other models are performing any better, but they don’t get the false praise the GFS gets in this country.

Speaking of the other models, the GFS Ensembles are not impressed with a big storm and show a wave of low pressure sliding across the Tennessee Valley…

GFS 3

That’s a far cry from the Canadian Model…

Canadian

Get us to the 48 hour mark before this system forms and then we can talk in greater detail about what impact it will have on our weather.

One way or the other, Super Bowl Sunday is likely to be very messy across our part of the world.

I will update things later this evening. Take care.

49 Comments