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Time posted: 1:03 am

Watching The 4th Of July Weekend

Good Wednesday, everyone. The weather over the next couple of days will be about as nice as you get around here for the end of June. While we are out and about enjoying the nice weather, I’m focusing on the big 4th of July weekend just around the corner. Thunderstorms will try to crash the party.

In the short-term… It’s nice. Highs today will range from the upper 70s to low 80s in most areas. Humidity levels will be low, and sunshine will be abundant. Thursday will be similar to today, as we add a degree or two on top of the highs.

We start to get in on the storm threat as early as Friday…

Euro

That may be the first of several rounds of showers and storms targeting the region this weekend into early next week…

Euro 2

The models appear to be having some issues with convective feedback, but that is usually a sign of a potent atmosphere setting up. Cooler air to our north and hotter air to our south, will put our region in the line of fire for some strong storms and heavy rains…

GFS

A setup like this can dump a lot of rain in our region, and is something we will need to monitor closely in the coming days.

Enjoy the day and take care.

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Time posted: 1:00 am

A Great Few Days Ahead

Good Tuesday to one and all. We are dealing with an absolutely gorgeous weather pattern moving in here for the next few days. Temps will be way below normal, humidity will be down, and mainly sunny skies. Enjoy this nice weather while it lasts, storms may crash our 4th of July Weekend.

Highs today will be in the 80s for many, but will drop from north to south this afternoon as cool air dives in. Readings by Wednesday morning will be in the low and middle 50s. Afternoon highs should stay in the 70s for many, but the Hi-Res NAM looks too cool…

NAM

Thursday starts in the 50s and ends with temps in the low 80s. Enjoy.

We warm it up some on Friday as humidity levels increase. A late day shower or thunderstorm will be possible, but the real storm threat ramps up this holiday weekend…

Euro

Clusters of west-east moving showers and thunderstorms will likely target the region. Heavy rains will be a big concern if this pattern does work out…

Special 2

As a matter of fact, I’m looking at July and wondering if we aren’t going to get ourselves stuck in a pattern that can target this region with flash flood threats. Let’s hope that’s not the case.

Enjoy the day and take care.

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Time posted: 1:37 am

Tracking A Few Storms To Start The Week

Good Monday, everyone. Showers and thunderstorms are back in the bluegrass state and could cause a few problems out there today. I’m tracking the potential for some strong storms and local high water issues to begin the new week. I will also take a look at the potential for waves of storms to impact our 4th of July weekend.

Let’s start with today’s weather and roll forward.

Scattered showers and storms will be around, with the greatest concentration across central and eastern parts of the state. High winds and some hail will be possible in the strongest storms. These storms will also become efficient rain producers, and that can lead to local flash flooding issues. That’s especially true across eastern Kentucky and into the flood ravaged areas of West Virginia. I will have your tracking tools in a bit.

Cooler temps move in for the middle of the week, but I am seeing the potential for a healthy battle setting up by the weekend. The heat across the deep south vs a very cool air mass across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley could put our region in a stormy setup…

Special 2

This could lead to rounds of strong storms and very heavy rains. The European Model is on board with this potential…

EuroWhile that is still several days away from potentially happening, I don’t like the early look of things. That’s something to closely follow in the coming days.

Until then, I have you set to track today’s storms…

Have a great Monday and take care.

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Time posted: 2:21 am

Storms Set To Return

Good Sunday to one and all. We have a hot and humid day in store for the bluegrass state, but the return of thunderstorms will soon take center stage. This action will be ahead of a strong cold front that will knock the temperatures down as we get ready to close out June and say hello to July.

Temps today reach the low and middle 90s with a heat index pushing triple digits. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will go up as the day wears on…

A cold front moves our way Monday with showers and thunderstorms increasing. These storms can be strong or locally severe into Monday night. We will also have to be on guard for heavy rainfall that can cause local flash flooding issues. That’s especially the case across eastern Kentucky and for our friends in West Virginia. Thoughts and prayers to all those impacted by the recent historic flooding there.

The flash flood threat may increase if we get a wave of low pressure to develop along this front. That’s what the European Model is trying to show…

Euro

That will be something to keep a VERY close eye on over the next few days.

A secondary front arrives Tuesday with a broken line of showers and thunderstorms. That will unleash a much cooler than normal pattern for much of the eastern part of the country. The Ensembles 5 day average temperature departure through the 4th of July…

GFS Temps

Can we get some rounds of showers and thunderstorms to work along the southern edge of the cooler than normal air? The European says to watch for it…

Euro 2

Have a great Sunday and take care.

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Time posted: 12:46 am

Cooler Weather Follows A Hot Weekend

Good Saturday, everyone. We have a nice blast of heat and humidity moving into the bluegrass state this weekend. Temps and heat index values kick if up a few notches, but a cold front is on the way. That front will usher in a significantly cooler pattern. The arrival of this is a week later than I originally thought a few weeks ago.

Highs today will be in the low and mid 90s west with around 90 in the east. Most areas hit the low and middle 90s for Sunday with heat index values reaching 100 or better. Both days will feature a scattered storm, with Sunday having the best chance.

Showers and thunderstorms increase Sunday night and Monday as a cold front sweeps in…

GFS 2

Some strong storms will be possible during this time.

Another disturbance follows that up from the northwest by the middle of the week, and can produce scattered shower and thunderstorms…

GFS 3

These systems look to have much more of a push than the front of the past week. Anytime a front hangs up right on top of you, nasty weather usually develops and we saw that with the severe storms and flooding rains.

Here’s the push of cooler temps showing up for Wednesday and Thursday…

Canadian

Not only are the operation models on board with a cooler pattern, but the Ensembles are as well. The GFS Ensembles 5 Day average temperature departure into 4th of July weekend…

GFS 4

The same 5 days on the GEPS…

GFS 5

Is that a trend that holds into July? The CFS seasonal model thinks so…

CFS

Enjoy your Saturday and take care.

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