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Heavy Rain and Storms Tracker

Good Sunday, everyone. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms continue to dump heavy amounts of rain on the commonwealth. These storms will likely lead to additional high water issues in some areas. If you are thinking the flip of the calendar to September means things will turn dry… thing again. More boomers are head of us in the next week, at least.

Watch for the potential for flash flooding today. These storms are loaded with tropical moisture and can easily dump 2 or 3 inches in a short amount of time.

The threat for scattered storms will take us into Labor Day, but some dry hours are a good bet. Another round of heavy rain producing thunderstorms arrives Monday night and takes us through Tuesday. The pattern continues to favor waves of storms coming at us in the week ahead. Check out the rainfall forecast from the Canadian and European models…

Canadian Euro

General rainfall forecasts from models don’t really take into account torrential rain totals that come from individual thunderstorms. This is also a pattern that could eventually feature a tropical system down in the Gulf. Some of my analog years had a tropical system impacting our weather later in September. We shall see.

Let’s track some storms…

 

 

 

Enjoy the day and take care.

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Heavy Rain Threat Increasing

Good Saturday evening, gang. Torrential rain producing showers and thunderstorms have been common across western Kentucky today. Paducah is already up to their wettest August day on record with 4.49″ of rain. This is now the wettest August on record for Paducah. Lexington, Louisville and Bowling Green are already well into the top 10 and will climb their respective ladders through Sunday.

Heavy rain is going to keep increasing across the state this evening and that carries through tonight and Sunday. Fairly widespread 1″-2″ totals will be likely with local amounts doubling that. This will lead to the threat for high water issues during this time.

Some strong storms will also be possible and I have you set to keep tracking the action…

 

 

Rainfall Since Midnight

Enjoy the evening and take care.

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Rounds Of Storms Moving In

Good Saturday and welcome to the Labor Day Weekend. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are developing across the state today. This action will be rather common over the next few days and that’s not good for outdoor plans. This won’t be a total washout of a weekend, but have a backup plan for whatever it is you have scheduled outside.

Tropical air continues to push in from the southwest and is coming straight out of the Gulf of Mexico. This is very deep moisture that reaches into the upper levels of the atmosphere. This 500mb relative humidity map shows a heck of a conveyor belt of moisture upstairs…

GFSWe know the lower levels of the atmosphere are loaded with water, but when you get that much water upstairs, that ups the ante for heavy rainfall. That’s especially when you consider the source is a tropical disturbance from the Gulf.

The showers and storms today will increase from southwest to northeast throughout the day. Rounds of boomers will carry us into Sunday and Monday with some dry times in between these rounds.

This is a setup that can produce additional high water issues for some areas. This amount of rain should also boost several locations toward their wettest August on record!

The pattern into next week continues to look steamy and stormy as September starts like August ends.

Let’s do some Saturday storm tracking…

 

 

Have a great day and take care.

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Tropical Moisture This Weekend

Good Friday, everyone. Labor Day Weekend is here and that means fall is officially on the clock in my book. If that doesn’t bring a smile to your face, I don’t know what will. :) Unfortunately, the holiday weekend looks to feature an increase in showers and thunderstorms.

That means August will go out on a very appropriate note… wet.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will increase across the region later today into the evening. This may develop from southwest to northeast and could impact some high school football games.

 

 

Saturday will be a very tropical feeling day with scattered showers and thunderstorms pushing in ahead of a tropical surge of moisture. That comes in from southwest to northeast through Sunday and Monday. That shows up very well on the NAM simulated radar…

NAMWhile it isn’t going to rain all the time, when it does… look out. Torrential rains will be a good possibility and that could cause some local high water issues.

Scattered showers and storms look to hang tough into the first half of next week. Moral of the story… September looks to start out by doing a good imitation of our soggy August.

Have a great day and take care.

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Storms For Labor Day Weekend

Good Thursday to one and all. Labor Day Weekend is one day from kicking off and the forecast isn’t improving as we get closer. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms look to kick back in during this time. The action may even get a boost from a disturbance across the northern Gulf Of Mexico.

Let’s start with where we are today and roll forward. A weak front is parked across the state and this will deliver a few showers and storms to some folks. The best chance will be in the south and west with slightly drier and cooler air hitting the northeast.

Friday will find the potential for scattered showers and storms developing during the afternoon and evening. These could impact a few high school football games, but shouldn’t be as widespread as last Friday.

The action begins to pick up late Saturday as our plume of tropical moisture inches closer from the southwest…

Euro

I’m hopeful we can get those to hold off until the very end of the day or the evening, but it’s going to be a very close call.

That surge of juice shoots in here with widespread showers and storms around for Sunday…

Euro 2

Additional rounds of showers and storms will be around for Labor Day…Euro 3

Additional rounds of showers and storms may carry us into Tuesday as another cold front enters the picture. All of these storms over the weekend into early next week can put down a lot of rain and could cause issues. The European Model shows what I’m talking about…

Euro 4Have a great Thursday and take care..

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Worries For The Weekend

Good Wednesday, folks. We’ve made it to the middle of the last week of August. Labor Day Weekend is staring at us in the face and it’s looking more and more like storms will play a starring role. A surge of tropical moisture even tries to get into the mix by Sunday and Monday.

We have some things to talk about before we get to that point. A cold front is moving into the region from the north today and will ignite a few scattered storms. This action will become more prominent during the afternoon and evening hours. Stop me if you’ve heard this one before… I can’t rule out a few strong storms that can put down torrential rains and a lot of lightning.

The threat for a few storms will carry us into Thursday with temps down a few degrees in most areas. A storm or two will also pop later on Friday.

The main action arrives over the weekend as low pressure works across toward the Ohio Valley from the west. A big surge or tropical moisture from the Gulf moves our way ahead of this. Check out the increase in showers and storms from southwest to northeast…

Euro 2

That could lead to another round or two of torrential rains later in the weekend.

A similar flow will be in place for Labor Day…

Euro 3Enjoy your Wednesday and take care.

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Our Stormy Setup Continues

Good Tuesday, everyone. We are rolling our way toward the end of meteorological summer and into the start of Meteorological Fall. That also means the long Labor Day Weekend is upon us, so the forecast always takes on added importance. Unfortunately, it looks like our stormy pattern will still be going strong.

In the short term… steamy and sometimes stormy skies will dominate the day across Kentucky. The west will continue to  bake in the 90s with the east in MUCH better temperature share. A storm or two will continue to bubble up.

A cold front will drop in from the north and northwest late Wednesday. This front will put the brakes on across the region as a broken line of showers and thunderstorms sweeps in…

Euro 2 That will knock temps down a few degrees into Thursday as scattered showers and storms continue. The boundary will then lift back to the north as low pressure works toward the east from the Plains. As that happens, tropical moisture from the Gulf will work our way into Labor Day Weekend. The end result will be an increasing amount of showers and thunderstorms…

Euro

There’s a lot of juice available in this kind of setup. That could very well lead to some troubles from torrential rainfall.

Have a great day and take care.

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More Of The Same This Week

Good Monday, folks. The more things change, the more they stay the same. That’s a very appropriate saying for the world of weather this week. The overall setup will change, but the actual weather conditions will be similar to what we’ve been dealing with in recent weeks. That doesn’t bode well for our Labor Day Weekend.

Some steam and some scattered storms will be back on the weather menu today through Wednesday. A cold front will enter the picture by Thursday and Friday, but won’t be able to fully clear the region. Cristobal will likely be a miss for the east coast, but the slow movement of that storm clogs up the pattern behind it.

Here’s how the pattern is looking for the holiday weekend…

Euro 2 A healthy supply of moisture looks to be setting up from the western Gulf of Mexico right on into the bluegrass state. The end result will be muggy air and more showers and thunderstorms…

EuroWe are pretty much locked into a wet pattern into early September, at least. Some of my analog year suggest we will need to watch the Gulf of Mexico for tropical development that could enter the mix. This is also a pattern that should feature above normal temps for much of our region through the middle of September.

Here we go with another day of tracking…

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

Enjoy the day and take care.

 

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A Steamy and Stormy Sunday

Good Sunday to one and all. I can’t recall stormier pattern in August than the one we are in right now. The past week has featured rounds of showers and thunderstorms putting down flooding rains in many areas. You can actually extend this stormy setup to include the past 3 weeks. It’s a history making month in terms of rainfall for several locations.

Today’s weather will feature more steam and more storms. You’re shocked, I know.

I will try to get another post up later today that goes a little more in depth on the pattern as we get ready for September. For now… headlines is what you get.

- A few more rounds of showers and storms will develop across the state today. The ground is waterlogged in many areas and local high water issues may develop. Any storm that goes up could be strong, but will be loaded with lightning.

- Temps across central and eastern Kentucky will run in the mid and upper 80s with the occasional 90. That’s not too bad. The problem comes when you throw the humidity into the mix. That will make it feel like it’s well into the 90s.

- Western Kentucky will continue to bear the brunt of the high heat and humidity. Highs in the 90s with heat index numbers well over 100 degrees at times. This is about as muggy as it can possible get in this region. Dewpoint temps hit the low 80s in some spots Saturday. That is just crazy humid.

- The same setup will be with us into Monday and Tuesday. Steam and storms… steam and storms… say it with me… steam and storms…

- A cold front works our way by the second half of the week. My thoughts about this front making a clean sweep through the state are changing. It now appears this thing could slow down and allow for a couple of waves of low pressure to develop along it into the Labor Day weekend. That would mean… wait for it… wait for it… additional rounds of showers and storms. We still have time to see how that plays out.

Let’s track some steam and storms…

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

Current Temperatures

Have a great day and take care.

 

 

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Rounds Of Storms Continue

Good Saturday, everyone.  The stormy pattern we’ve been tracking for well over a week continues and shows no signs of letting up this weekend. Storms will come at us in waves as the axis of storms shifts farther west into the bluegrass state. This puts western Kentucky in play for some storms that can cause more issues.

Speaking of issues, flooding was common with the Friday evening storms. Many streets in Lexington were flooded and areas around Ashland had big time problems. The hardest hit area was around Prestonsburg in Floyd County. Much of the downtown area was underwater.

High school football games were postponed in many areas last night because of the storms. Many of those will be played tonight, but could face additional storms.

The storms out there today and Sunday will focus on the entire state and will continue to come at us in waves. These storms can put down tremendous amounts of rain and pack a ton of lightning.

Off and on storms will take us through the first half of next week. Once we get into the middle of the week, a strong cold front will approach from the west. That front SHOULD clear the area later Thursday or Friday with much cooler air working in for the Labor Day Weekend.

The one thing that could impact the timing and set of it all would be a possible tropical system developing in the Caribbean. The models want to keep this storm off the coast as our front passes through…

GFS

It’s still way too early for anything definitive on that system, so we will wait to see what happens with it.

In the meantime, let’s track some storms…

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

Enjoy the day and take care.

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