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Time posted: 1:58 am

A Weather Fight Brewing

Good Friday to one and all. We have a heck of a weather fight taking shape amongst the weather indicies I look at from across the globe. It’s a battle between cold and mild signals that will have a huge impact on our weather over the next week or so.

I will get to that in a bit, but let’s talk about the short-term forecast first.

Today is a windy and milder day with temps in the 50s for those holiday shoppers. Gusty winds continue into Saturday as a weak cold front drops in from the northwest. This may touch off a shower or two, with wind gusts hitting 30mph at times.

Blustery winds knock our temps back into the 40s on Sunday, but another big wind change comes back early next week. That’s when we focus on a system rolling in from the plains states. The models show a bowling ball type system, with colder air behind it…

The European is similar, but with more in an interesting look…

I mentioned in my earlier posts about a big weather fight brewing amongst the various indicies I look at. We have some pointing cold, with some pointing mild over the next week and change.

In the cold corner, we have the AO and NAO. Both are forecast to be negative into early December…

 

Usually, that’s a healthy signal for significant cold across the eastern half of the country. But, we find the signals in the Pacific are fighting the blocking signals showing up. Look how positive the forecast is for the Western Pacific Oscillation…

 

The Eastern Pacific Oscillation isn’t as positive, and takes on more of a neutral look by early December. The WPO signal is usually a mild one for the eastern half of the country.

In recent years, I’ve been trying to learn more and more about the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The MJO is basically an index tracking the tropical precipitation anomalies, generally in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. The placement and intensity of the MJO plays a big role in the overall weather across North America. The current MJO forecast is for it to enter into Phases 3, 4 and 5 over the next 2 weeks…

European

GFS

There isn’t much amplitude on either of those forecasts, and the lower the amplitude, the weaker the impact it has on our weather.

The various phases of the MJO give us different temperature and precipitation outcomes for the country, depending on the month of the year. The temperature composites for this time of year show a milder look for phase 3, with a weakening of that into Phase 4, with a colder look as it enters phase 5…

Again, though, the lower the amplitude of the MJO, the less of an impact it has on our weather and can be overridden by other forces like the NAO or AO.

The GFS keeps showing the cold signals winning the battle as we head into December. Watch the troughs dig in…

I will have updates later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 7:28 pm

Thanksgiving Update

Good evening and Happy Thanksgiving. The weather continues to be optimal for holiday travelers across the entire region. This is a setup that rolls right on through the upcoming “traditional” weekend. Beyond that, the pattern begins to turn much more active.

Before we look ahead, we have to give it up for this morning’s lows…

Upper teens and low 20s are among the colder numbers we have had on a Thanksgiving in quite some time, and it made for the coldest morning so far this month.

Nice weather will continue for Friday and into Saturday, so holiday shoppers have no issues from the sky. Winds will be gusty as afternoon temps hit the 50s. Enjoy.

A cold front drops in late Saturday, but the core of the cold stays just to our northeast on Sunday…

That brings us a quick hitting shot of seasonal chill, with southwesterly winds booting that out quickly on Monday. This will mean a return to temps similar to what we will see Tomorrow and Saturday.

The models are all over the place for the middle and end of next week. I actually like how the GFS is currently handling a trough digging into the plains states. It cuts off a part of that, rolling it toward us for the second half of next week…

You can see the colder air coming in behind that as it departs to our northeast.

There is a heck of a fight going on with the global signals, right now. They are evenly split between a cold signal and a milder signal over the next week to 10 days. The colder signal is likely to win the battle, but it will take a bit to battle it out. You can see the eventual victory showing up on the GFS in early December…

I will talk more about this battle with the overnight post. Enjoy the rest of your Thanksgiving and take care.

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Time posted: 2:06 am

Happy Thanksgiving Weather Thoughts

Good Thursday and Happy Thanksgiving. I want you to know I am very appreciative and thankful for each and every one of you. You have turned our little weather community into a must stop for many people across the entire region. I’ve said it many times, but you all are the backbone of this site.

The weather on this Thanksgiving looks absolutely great. Temps are deep in the 20s this morning, then rise into the 40s this afternoon.

Black Friday shoppers will be facing a mix of sun and clouds with upper 20s and low 30s in the morning, with temps hitting the 50s in the afternoon. Winds are going to be very gusty.

A cold front moves in on Saturday and may bring a stray shower or two. Winds will be gusty, with a hit and run cold shot behind it for Sunday…

Temps rebound quickly early next week as our flow becomes southwesterly. This is ahead of another system moving in by the middle of the week…

Last night, I showed you the European Ensembles that took December into the tank in terms of winter weather across the eastern part of the country. Granted, that’s a long range forecast the model is making, but the medium range models are showing something similar as we usher in December.

The GFS Ensembles show some healthy blocking signatures showing up, with a deepening trough in the eastern part of the country…

The ensembles have done a pretty good job with the cold shots we’ve had from late October through much of November. A similar pattern occurring a month later has much different implications in terms of severity of the cold shots and winter weather. If a pattern can produce snow in October around here, imagine what it can do in December or January.

I will have another update at some point later today. Have a very happy Thanksgiving and take care.

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Time posted: 7:38 pm

Thanksgiving Eve Thoughts

Good evening, everyone. It’s a cold Thanksgiving Eve, but the overall pattern continues to look dry. This includes your turkey day forecast. From there, we track another cold front due in town this weekend, with a much more active pattern for next week.

Lows tonight will be deep into the 20s, with wind chill numbers knocking those down a few degrees. Thanksgiving Day looks great with 40s for many with a mix of sun and clouds.

Black Friday is windy with upper 20s to start and 50s coming in the afternoon.

A cold front zips in on Saturday, with the coldest air brushing our region into Sunday…

That gets pushed out of here quickly early next week, with another system working in by the middle of the week. This sets the stage for a much busier pattern takes shape…

There’s a ton going on with the atmosphere, with this active setup leading to early season fun and games. I will touch on that later tonight.

Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 2:00 am

Planes, Trains and Automobiles

Good Wednesday, everyone. The “Planes, Trains and Automobiles” post has become one of the great traditions here on Kentucky Weather Center. On this busiest travel day of the year, it’s the perfect time to pay tribute to one of my all time favorite movies. It’s a classic movie, and if you haven’t seen it, we can no longer be friends. 🙂

Here’s a little clip to get ya started…

Moving on to the actual weather part of the post…

We have colder than normal air out there today with temps in the upper 30s and low 40s for many, with colder wind chills.

Thanksgiving continues to look dry with 20s to start and 40s to end. A few clouds will be noted.

Black Friday is windy with upper 20s in the morning, and highs hitting the 50-55 degree range.

Another cold front arrives on Saturday with very gusty winds and another push of colder air behind it for Sunday…

That shot get’s shoved out of here quickly as we gear up for ANOTHER wild temperature ride by the middle of next week. That comes with a big storm system likely to impact our region.

Looking farther down the road, the new long range European Ensembles are in and they match the analog years and my thoughts on a front-loaded winter. Check out the colder than normal look through the first few days of January…

Snowfall from that same model for the same time period…

It’s interesting to note some of the new runs of the CFS are doing a turnaround and look very similar to the European for the exact same time…

That same model run for the 5 day period around Christmas is cold…

I will hook you up with updates later today, so check back. Safe travels and take care.

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