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A Wild Temp Ride Ahead

Good Friday, everyone. Holiday shoppers are busy flooding the stores and the malls to save a nickel and they’re battling cold weather to do it. While temps are cold today, it warms up for the weekend. In true Kentucky fashion, that won’t last very long as temps take a nosedive on Monday.

Our day starts with upper teens to low 20s in most areas. High temps will make it into the mid and upper 30s for many. Gusty winds will shave a few degrees off of that. A couple of snow showers or flurries could still be hanging around…

Current temperatures

Milder air slowly fights in for Saturday with highs reaching the upper 40s to low 50s. Clouds will increase and an isolated shower will be possible.

A much better threat for showers will be with us on Sunday with temps closing in on 60 degrees. That air gets wiped out in a hurry Sunday night into Monday as a powerhouse of a cold front settles into town. Check out the drop…

GFS Temps

The models will likely grow colder with the numbers coming in behind that front. Can this temp drop produce some wintry weather around here? I think that is a decent possibility and it is showing up on the models…

GFS 2

That would be from the first wave of precipitation along and behind the cold front. There may be another wave developing later Tuesday or Wednesday that we would need to keep check on.

I will have updates later today. Take care.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Thanksgiving Day Thoughts

Good afternoon and Happy Thanksgiving. Here’s hoping you are having a wonderful holiday! Snow blanketed many areas of the bluegrass state this morning, giving us a rare snowfall on turkey day. A few more snow showers and flurries will fly through the rest of the day, but I wanted to talk about where we go from here.

Black Friday is still a cold one with moderating temps this weekend. A few showers will be noted late Saturday into Sunday. Colder changes continue to show up on Monday as a strong cold front settles in from the north and northwest. This means a HUGE temp crash is coming to start December. We may be near 60 as the strikes midnight with a 25-30 degree temp drop coming by the afternoon.

Can you find the front on the European Model for Monday afternoon?

Euro

Now THAT is a cold front! The cold air will continue to press to the east as the front slows down. A couple of waves of low pressure will develop along this front and roll toward the northeast. That can bring wintry weather back into the region. The European shows where it thinks wintry precipitation will fall Monday and Tuesday…

Euro 2

That will be something for us to watch closely because the temps tend to show up colder and colder the closer we get. All of this is part of a back and forth pattern I expect for the first half of December, however things are certainly looking colder than even I was thinking. The Canadian Ensembles show the return of a familiar pattern around December 10th…

Canadian

A big ridge up the west coast into Alaska with a deepening trough across the east. If we can get that ridge in the Atlantic to pop a little farther north into Greenland… look out.

Happy Thanksgiving and take care.

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Happy Thanksgiving From Old Man Winter

Good Thursday and Happy Thanksgiving. Old Man Winter is paying a rare visit to the bluegrass state on this big holiday. He’s now two for two with holidays with some snow on Halloween to go along with today’s flakes. I have the blog set to do some tracking of whatever is out there today.

Before we get to that, a brief breakdown of what’s ahead.

- Morning snow will leave behind light accumulations for some areas. The southern parts of the state stand the best risk of seeing snow on the ground. Watch for slick spots with temps in the upper 20s.

- A few snow showers or flurries will be possible throughout the day with temps in the mid 30s. Wind chills may be in the 20s for much of the day.

- Black Friday looks cold, but dry.

- Milder air moves in for the weekend with an increasing threat for showers. The greatest chance comes later Sunday and Monday. That’s when a cold front nears the region from the northwest.

- This front will work into the region and put the brakes on by later Monday. Temps will drop big time as this front pulls into town. Temps will then slide even more as we roll into the middle of next week. Check out the European Model…

Euro

- That brings a wave of low pressure across Kentucky late Tuesday and produces some wintry weather. Much colder air follows that up by Wednesday.

- Remember my old saying about warm ups? When they start with rain, they usually won’t last very long. That appears to be the case with the milder air shooting in this weekend. I read your comments about how others are saying we have a prolonged blowtorch ahead of us to start December. I also read your comments a week or two ago about those same people saying Thanksgiving would see highs near 60. How’s your thermometer looking today? ;)

- Moral of the story… false warm periods have been showing up on the models all year. They did the same thing last winter and the warmth never came. Sure we will some mild days, but this is not the pattern that is just going to throw warm weather for an extended period at us. It’s more of a back and forth look for early December. Mid and late December will see things switch back to much more of a constant cold signal.

Your turkey day tracking tools…

Current temperatures

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 at MP 36
London
I-75 @ MP 36

I-75 at MP 23
Corbin
I-75 @ MP 23

I-75 @ Winchester Road Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road

I-75 @ Clays Ferry Bridge South Between Lexington and Richmond

US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort

US60 @ US127

US 127 @ Frankfort Frankfort

US127 @ Frankfort KY

US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
US60 @ US460

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown
I75 NB @ MP 127

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

I-71/I-75 at Buttermilk Pike Near Covington

I-71/I-75 @ Buttermilk Pike

I-71/I-75 at Mt. Zion Rd.
Near Covington
I-71/I-75 @ Mt. Zion Rd

I-64 @ 3rd St. Exit Louisville

I-64 @ 3rd St. Exit

Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway Louisville

Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway

I-264 @ Freedom Way
Near Louisville International Airport
I-264 @ Freedom Way

I-65 @ 234 Near Bowling Green

I-65 @ 234

I-24 MP 4 @ US 60 Paducah

I-24 @ US 60 MP 4

I-24 MP 7 @ US 62 Paducah

I-24 MP 7 @ US62

I will have updates later today. Have a wonderful Thanksgiving and take care.

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Wintry Weather Moving In

Good Wednesday evening, everyone. A round of winter weather is pushing into the state this evening and should be able to put down some light accumulations of snow overnight. This is a potent little clipper that can overachieve in a few spots. But where?

The best chance to pick up on some slushy accumulations continues to look like it will be along and south of Interstate 64…

SPECIAL 2All of this will begin as rain and a rain and snow mix before going over to all snow overnight and Thanksgiving morning. That’s when temps drop into the upper 20s and some slick spots may develop on area roads.

Leftover flurries will be around on Thanksgiving with highs only in the 30s.

Your tracking toys for the evening…

Current temperatures

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road

I-75 @ Clays Ferry Bridge South Between Lexington and Richmond

US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort

US60 @ US127

US 127 @ Frankfort Frankfort

US127 @ Frankfort KY

US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
US60 @ US460

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown
I75 NB @ MP 127

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

I-71/I-75 at Buttermilk Pike Near Covington

I-71/I-75 @ Buttermilk Pike

I-71/I-75 at Mt. Zion Rd.
Near Covington
I-71/I-75 @ Mt. Zion Rd

I-64 @ 3rd St. Exit Louisville

I-64 @ 3rd St. Exit

Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway Louisville

Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway

I-264 @ Freedom Way
Near Louisville International Airport
I-264 @ Freedom Way

I-65 @ 234 Near Bowling Green

I-65 @ 234

I-24 MP 4 @ US 60 Paducah

I-24 @ US 60 MP 4

I-24 MP 7 @ US 62 Paducah

I-24 MP 7 @ US62

Take care.

 

 

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Planes, Trains and Automobiles

                                

Good Wednesday and happy travels. Today is the busiest travel day of the year and it’s also the day we pay tribute to one of my favorite movies… Planes, Trains and Automobiles. We’ve been doing this for many years now and it’s become a blog tradition. If you haven’t seen it… watch it and you can thank me later. :)

A massive winter storm is rolling up the east coast and is throwing some wintry weather into parts of eastern Kentucky. This moisture begins in the form of rain then goes over to a mix of rain and snow then to snow early Wednesday. The best chance for accumulations will be across the southeastern corner of the state with a sharp cutoff to the west and northwest.

Temps will be marginal and the ground is fairly mild, so that has to be taken into consideration. The snow will pull away late morning into the early afternoon.

Track the fine line of snow walking…

Clouds will be noted across the rest of the region as another system dives in quickly this evening. This system is pretty wound up as it enters western Kentucky and slides to the east. Rain and snow will break out as this rolls through with a band of accumulating snow likely along and just north of the weak area of low pressure.

GFSThe best chance for some accumulations from this will be along and south of Interstate 64…

GFS 2

Some light snow and flurries will linger into Thanksgiving Day with highs in the 30s.

I will have updates later today, so check back. I leave you with this…

Have a safe day of travels and take care.

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Westward Trend Continues

Good evening, gang. The late day model runs of the GFS and NAM show a more westward expansion of the rain and snow shield from the east coast winter storm. The GFS is really amped up pretty far to the west and shows snow possible as far west as Interstate 75 late tonight and Wednesday morning…

GFSThat would certainly impact many more folks if it’s correct.

The same model run then brings the next system in from the northwest and adds to the snowfall potential through Thursday morning…

GFS 2The NAM shows much higher totals across far southeastern Kentucky, but isn’t as widespread with the totals from either system…

 

NAMA Winter Weather Advisory is already out for far southeastern Kentucky through Wednesday…

AdvisoryI have to admit that I’m more impressed with the potential now than I was even earlier today.

I will have updates as needed and could even upgrade for southeastern Kentucky if the trend continues.

Take care.

 

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More Travel Weather Thoughts

Good Tuesday afternoon. We’re seeing a nice temperature contrast from northwest to southeast this afternoon and that’s probably telling us something about the upcoming east coast storm. It’s arguing for a slightly farther west track and precipitation shield.

Right on cue, the 12z runs of the NAM and GFS did show the precipitation shield much farther west into Kentucky. This all begins later tonight as a surge of rain coming into southeastern parts of the state. As the storm cranks, temps fall and allow for rain and snow and just plain old snow.

The new GFS snow map shows accumulating snows…

GFS Snow

You can also see the Wednesday night and Thanksgiving light snow maker impacting the west and southern parts of the state.

The NAM isn’t too far away from that…

NAM

Temps with both systems are marginal for much in the way of accumulations, so we will have to wait and see how that shakes out.

Regardless, the potential for accumulating snow from the east coast storm has increased for parts of eastern Kentucky.

I will have another update later. Take care.

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Tracking Turkey Travel Troubles

Good Tuesday, everyone. It’s full steam ahead toward the busiest travel period of the year and it’s going to be a mess across much of the country. A major winter storm will slam the east and that may impact parts of eastern Kentucky. Throw in another possible light snow maker for the rest of the state and you have some tricky travel.

The GFS continues to show this storm throwing some accumulating snows into far southeastern Kentucky later tonight and Wednesday…

GFS

The rest of the snowfall on that map across comes from our system diving in here Wednesday night and Thanksgiving morning. This will likely be in the form of a mix of rain and wet snow to start with light snow and flurries taking over and carrying us into early Thanksgiving…

GFS 2

Some light accumulations will be possible with that, but not for everyone.

The NAM shows a farther south track with that system and shows more snow in the southeast from the east coast storm…

NAM 2

I doubt the NAM is correct with what it shows for the track of the Wednesday night light snow maker. The greatest chance of putting a little snow on the ground would be along and south of the Interstate 64 corridor.

Thanksgiving Day should feature some light snow to start with flurries lingering into the afternoon. Highs will generally run in the 30s.

The weather over the next few days will be a high impact travel event across the eastern half of the country. The snowstorm in the east will cause a ripple effect to airports across the rest of the country…

NAM

Our weather will improve for Black Friday, but it looks cold for shoppers. Rain will increase late this weekend and take us into early next week. December will start wet and rather mild with highs in the 50s for several days. At the same time, a ton of cold air is building up across Canada. This similar setup last December led to a severe weather outbreak across our region and that began our march into the very harsh winter.

The Ensembles have been hinting at that possibility for the end of next week. The GFS is now showing a big storm that has thunder ahead of it and a quick blast of winter behind it…

GFS 3

We shall see how that plays out, but it’s an interesting signal to follow from more than a week away.

Speaking of interesting signals… the CFS 10 day snowfall totals for the Christmas and New Year’s holidays…

CFS 2

CFS 3

I feel like I rambled with this post. It’s late and I’m tired so cut your friendly weatherdude some slack! :)

Updates come your way later today. Take care.

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Monday Evening Thoughts

Good evening, gang. The winds are finally calming down as colder air pushes back into Kentucky. This is nowhere near as cold as what we had last week, but that stuff was historic. This air will be cold enough to help give us the potential for some wintry weather.

Our big east coast winter storm looks to graze southeastern Kentucky with some snow on Wednesday. Here’s the area that has the best chance of seeing the flakes from that storm…

SPECIAL We will wait and see how the track of the low goes with that, but an eastern Kentucky impact is possible.

Another system dives in from the northwest Wednesday night into Thanksgiving morning. This will likely have a band of light snow along it, but I’m still not sure where that sets up. Here’s the best guess at this point…

SPECIAL 2Some light accumulations would be possible for some folks and that could impact travel.

A full update comes your way tonight. Take care.

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Wednesday Travel Update

Good Monday afternoon, gang. The winds out there today have been everything I expected and then some. Gusts have topped out at 60mph+ in a few spots. Trees are down and thousands are without power. Those winds are ushering in much colder air that will set the stage for possible travel troubles on Wednesday.

The day before Thanksgiving is the busiest travel day of the year across the country and Old Man Winter is going to cause some big issues.

A massive winter storm will slam the eastern part of the country as a light snow maker zips across the Ohio Valley from the northwest. Each of these should impact the weather across Kentucky. The question is… now much of an impact will each have?

The east coast storm is likely to throw some snow across southeastern parts of the state. The European Model has been the farthest west with the snow shield. The latest SREF also shows a farther west extension of the system…

SREF

The new European Model comes out in a bit and I will tweet about what it’s showing.

The GFS shows snow across southeastern Kentucky with the east coast storm and has the separate swath of snow from northwest to southeast…

GFS Snow

That second system mainly comes late Wednesday into Wednesday night. One way or another, travel across Kentucky looks to have a wintry impact on Wednesday.

I will have another update later. Take care.

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