Category Archives: Uncategorized

Time posted: 2:19 am

Watching A Busy Winter Pattern

Good Saturday, everyone. Winter weather has been with much of the region over the past couple of days and this is the beginning of a winter pattern settling in. We are looking toward next week and the potential for additional arctic shots and potential snow threats.

Before we get to that, we will be on guard for a weak system ready to impact our region Sunday into Monday.

We have cold air in place across the state today, but slightly milder air is going to push in over the next few days. As this pushes in, the northern half of the state could see a few snowflakes or some sleet tonight into Sunday morning. The Hi Res NAM…

nam

Much of that will be drying up before it reaches the ground, but it’s something to keep an eye on.

As temps climb on Sunday, showers take over from west to east and will carry us into the first part of Monday. This could deliver another decent rainfall…

nam

Much colder air then filters in here Monday night into Tuesday. Low level moisture looks to linger and should be in the form of a few snowflakes during that time.

This is when we focus on an arctic front charging in from the northwest. This boundary will drop in as the arctic air spreads out from west to east. This sets up a gradient with waves of low pressure attempting to develop. Expecting models to perfectly handle this kind of cold and ensuing systems is pretty silly. I’ve talked about this for days and days now, and we have been seeing extreme runs of all the models.

The European Model shows one of those waves by late Tuesday and Wednesday…

euro

Here’s the snapshot of the bitterly cold air coming into the country behind that…

gfs-temps

That same run then sets up a wild looking storm system by next weekend and has another arctic blast moving into the country from the northwest…

gfs-temps-3

There is so much extreme cold across North America that the models cannot handle it properly. In turn, that messes up how they handle each system that goes along with the cold.

This continues to be a heck of a winter pattern taking shape across the country. We will continue to fine tune the direct impacts on our weather as we get closer to each system and arctic blast.

I will have additional updates later today. Make it a great day and take care.

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Time posted: 7:38 pm

Friday Evening Thoughts

Good evening, everyone. We continue to deal with some light snow and flurries across the region this evening as we await an arctic cold night ahead. I wanted to drop by for a very brief update on this frigid evening.

The Sunday-Monday system continues to look like we talked about earlier, so there’s no change to all that.

Beyond that comes arctic air for the middle and end of next week. That’s when we see the GFS continues to see a series of systems working across the arctic front slowly pushing through our region…

gfs-gif-4

There is now a Parallel version of the GFS running. I believe it’s slated to eventually become the main GFS model. It shows much more robust systems along the arctic front…

gfs-gif-3

It will be interesting to see how all this works out. You can clearly see that’s a heck of a big push of arctic air coming into the country… Again. Snow chances will be fine tuned as we get closer and see exactly how all this evolves.

I also want to say thanks for all the kind comments today. I started KWC in hopes of it becoming a true weather community for Kentucky and surrounding areas. It has become that and so much more, and I have all of you to thank for that.

I will see you guys for another update later tonight. Make it a good one and take care.

21 Comments

Time posted: 12:32 pm

Frigid Friday Midday Update

Good Friday, folks. Many of us picked up a nice coating of snow to start the day. Never underestimate the power of a northwesterly wind flow in the cold weather season. 🙂 Flurries will continue to fly out there today with temps stuck in the 20s and wind chills in the teens.

Let’s focus on where this pattern goes from here. Our system moving in for Sunday into Monday will continue to focus much of the winter weather just to our north. The leading edge of the precipitation shield can start out as a light mix for many, with the best chance for that being in the north. That shows up  well here…

canadian

That’s a healthy snowstorm for areas to our north. Road trip? 😉

After that system passes, we quickly turn our attention toward a big time arctic front. That front swings in here late Tuesday into Wednesday. Current indications are for a wave, or waves, or low pressure to develop along this boundary. Here’s how the latest GFS sees it…

gfs

The placement of those lows will be the determining factor on snowfall around here.

The air coming behind this system is icebox stuff for much of the country. Check out the forecast lows…

gfs-temps

Man… that’s some serious cold showing up for most of America! Check out the wind chill forecast…

gfs-temps-2

Yowza!

I see some of you leaving comments about some guys in other tv markets talking some smack about me or this site? First off… Let me say to them, thanks for reading everything I say and watching me on TV. I must be doing something right for them to hang onto every word I type or say. Right?

I get that it’s probably a tough pill for some of the egos to swallow… having someone in a neighboring market with more of a following in their own city than they have. Perhaps if they devoted more time to actually working instead of “unplugging” when they aren’t at work, they too would have a massive weather following. 😉

And for the record… I could care less what any other TV station or weather blog forecasts. I only care about what I do and working my backside off to keep you guys safe and up to date.

I will have another update for you guys later today. Stay warm out there and take care.

65 Comments

Time posted: 2:05 am

A Frigid and Flurry Filled Friday

Good Friday, everyone. This illustrious post is coming to you from my iPhone and won’t be as long as normal. I get home to start checking models to begin work on the blog and discover my internet is down.

Our Friday is starting out with light snow and flurries in many areas. These flakes appear to be overachievers and could put down a nice coating in several areas…

http://www.accuweather.com/radar-large.asp?partner=netweather&traveler=0&site=KY_&type=SIR&anim=1&level=state&large=1#

I’m trying to paste the radar into this update, but it doesn’t look quite right on my end. Just hit the radar tab at the top of the blog and check them out on your own. Thanks, Windstream.

Flakes wind down later today with very cold air continuing. Highs generally stay in the 20s with a wind chill in the teens.

Saturday starts in the teens with afternoon highs reaching the 30s.

The system moving in for Sunday and Monday keeps what earlier runs were showing with a mix at the start across the northern half of the state, but mainly rain takes over from there. Heavy snows fall to our north, but you can see how the north has a chance at some frozen stuff to start…

img_2024

A powerful arctic front then follows that up by the middle of next week. That should give us a snow chance before some frigid stuff swings in.

The pattern is starting to show itself as one that is going to be very active on the leading edge of the arctic air. That spells a lot of snow for areas who get in the “zone”. Does that eventually include Kentucky over the next few weeks? The GFS ensembles continue to like that possibility…

img_2025

 

The operational GFS does as well…

img_2023

The new European Model also puts us in the “zone” during the next week to 10 days.

Here’s your friendly reminder that I’m only showing those to illustrate the overall pattern being forecast on the models.

I will have more updates later today, with or without Internet. Have a great day and take care.

31 Comments

Time posted: 7:42 pm

Thursday Evening Update

Good evening, gang. We are dealing with very cold air blowing into the region tonight into Friday. This will knock wind chills down into the single digits at times late tonight for some areas. This will also funnel in some more clouds and a few snow flurries.

From there, it’s all eyes on the late weekend system impacting the weather for a lot of folks. This system continues to show the potential for some front end wintry weather across parts of our region. The new NAM only goes through the wee hours of Monday morning, but shows the prospects for some wintry weather across the northern half of the state…

nam

Now, don’t look at that and think snowfall, think of it as showing where the potential for winter weather is across Kentucky.

The same with the European…

euro-snow

You can clearly see the heaviest snow to the north of the Ohio River on both of those models.

Taken verbatim, those models show some front end wintry mix changing to rain and carrying us into Monday.

The GFS had a late day run that focused this action a lot farther north…

gfs-snow

The next item up for bids is an arctic front slated to arrive by the middle of next week…

gfs-2

That will likely have a system along it that can bring winter weather to our part of the world. Behind it…. B to the RR. 🙂

I will see you guys back here later tonight. Enjoy the evening and take care.

14 Comments