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The Wimpy Dog Days Of Summer

Chihuahua puppy dressed in purple hooded coat, 6 months old, sitting in front of white backgroundGood Friday and welcome to the 8th month of the year. August usually starts out on a scorching hot note, but that’s not the style of this summer. We are coming off a VERY cool July and our dog days are looking pretty wimpy, right now. That said… I do see some warmer times ahead.

A quick look back at July for a few cities finds some super cool numbers. Frankfort comes in with the 2nd coldest July on record at 71.9 degrees. 2009 and 1947 are tied for the top spot at 71.5 degrees.

Lexington’s numbers aren’t as easy to break down. Blue Grass Airport has become a hot spot since a new temperature sensor was placed on it last spring. It came in with a July average temperature of 73.3 degrees. The nearby Kentucky Mesonet site had an average July temperature of 72.1 degrees. The mesonet number would make this the 3rd coldest July on record for Lexington.

Unfortunately, the official records are kept at Blue Grass Airport and that number doesn’t even crack the top 10 coldest July list. Basically, the new warm biased sensor cost Lexington a rightful place in history for July.

Where do we go now that we’re in August?

Highs today will top out in the low and mid 80s in the west with upper 70s to low 80s in the east. We will see a few more clouds than what we had on Thursday and a couple of scattered showers and storms will roll into town. The greatest concentration will be across eastern and southeastern Kentucky.

Current Temperatures

Our weekend will see a scattered storm or two, but a lot of dry times will be noted. Temps will be tricky because of the scattered nature of the storms.

Thermometers will warm into the first half of next week. The parched ground of western Kentucky may help temps surge toward 90 or slightly better there. Central and eastern Kentucky should see readings closer to normal with more humid air returning.

Showers and storms will threaten to return by the end of the week as we track another dip in the jet stream.

Looking down the road for August and into early September, the CFS continues to show below normal temps…

CFSHave a great day and take care.

 

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Storm Chances Increase

Good Thursday, everyone. We’ve made it to the final day of July and our cooler than normal weather pattern shows no signs of changing. The nice conditions will begin to change as the threat for showers and thunderstorms increase in the coming days.

Let’s start with where we are today and roll forward toward the fall and winter. Wait… what? Ok, Ok… a small model preview of the fall and winter. :)

Highs today will hit the low 80s for many with the threat for a shower or thunderstorm going up. Track away…

Current Temperatures

Moisture will increase for Friday and this looks to give us a slightly better chance for a few showers and storms kicking in. That’s especially true across the eastern part of the state…

NAM

The scattered showers and storms will continue to fire up on Saturday with temps back in the upper 70s to low 80s.

The overall pattern continues to feature lower heights in the atmosphere through the weekend…

NAM 2

The setup for next week is likely to feature another dip in the jet stream for the middle and end of the week. The European Model is going toward a stout cutoff upper level low…

Euro 2

That would lead to more cooler than normal temps and a wetter pattern taking shape.

What about the fall and winter ahead of us? It’s too early to get a good grip on things as I love to see how things look through the early Fall. The big warm pool off the west coast into the Gulf of Alaska is still going strong and that’s one reason our pattern hasn’t changes much over the past year.

One of the longer range models shows the colder than normal pattern continuing…Japan Model 2

Have a great last day of the month and take care.

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Kentucky Rainfall Numbers

Good evening, gang. I wanted to drop by with a quick update on the rainfall numbers for the bluegrass state. In the longer term, things are in pretty good shape. In the shorter term, western Kentucky could really use some rain!

Here’s a look at the year to date anomalies…

Rainfall Year  Yearly totals are in pretty good shape for much of Kentucky. The past month has not been a good one for the western part of the state. Check out the expansive area of dry…

Rainfall Month

The past week was a very wet one across central and eastern Kentucky, but stayed dry in the west…

Rainfall Week

 

Let’s see if we can share the water wealth with folks across western Kentucky.

Have a good one and take care.

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Pleasant Temps Continue

Good Wednesday, friends and neighbors. To say July has been cool would be an understatement. Temperatures are well below normal for the month and several days have featured record lows. The nice temperatures will roll on with no sign of true summertime heat showing up in the coming weeks.

Record lows were set in several cities Tuesday and a few more could fall this morning. Lows in the low and mid 50s are likely for many areas with a touch of dense fog. This afternoon will feature a mix of sun and clouds with a few showers trying to go up. Some isolated rumbles of thunder will be possible.

Today’s Lows

Current Temperatures

Temps over the next few days will slowly warm, but will still be below normal. Highs for Thursday into Friday will range from 80-85 in many areas. Far western Kentucky will be warmer as the dry ground has more of an impact on thermometers.

Scattered showers and storms will increase during this time and may hit a high note over the weekend. The models are throwing out some decent rain totals for a few folks…

GFS Rain We do have a window for temps and humidity to spike for a short time next week, but another dip in the jet stream looks to show up by week 2 of August…

GFS

Fall and winter lovers, listen up. I will show you a seasonal computer model forecast with my next update.

Make it a great day and take care.

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September Rules The Pattern

Good Tuesday, folks. The calendar shows that it is July, but the overall weather pattern has made it feel more and more like September. This is a setup that doesn’t look to change anytime soon… maybe not until it actually IS September. :)

Our day is likely to start with record or near record lows. Upper 40s to low 50s will be a good bet in many areas to begin the day if we can keep the clouds and fog away. Our day will likely start mainly clear with clouds quickly developing. Those clouds could produce isolated showers. Winds will be rather gusty with highs ranging in the low to middle 70s.

Today’s Lows

Current Temperatures

Wednesday should feature more of the same with temps back in the 70s and the chance for a few afternoon showers. The shower chances will increase later this week into the weekend with a few thunderstorms joining the mix. Highs will continue to average below normal.

Those below normal temps look to continue into early August…

GFS 2 GFS 3 The longer range CFS takes us into the middle of September and shows much of the country well below normal between now and then…

CFS

Make it a great day and take care.

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Near Record Low Temps Possible

Good Monday, everyone. What a weather weekend in the bluegrass state! A severe weather outbreak rocked the region with damaging winds and very large hail. I had more tornado warnings to deal with than at any time since March 2nd of 2012. The severe threat is over and now we track the potential for near record cold in the coming days.

The next few days may go down as one of the cooler endings to July on record around here. The setup will feature a deep trough digging in across the eastern part of the country through Wednesday. This will unleash a big-time shot of fall air that could drop overnight lows into the upper 40s to low 50s on any night that has clear skies.

Check out the GFS forecast lows…

GFSThose numbers would set some record lows if they verify. We would nee clear skies and little in the way of fog to do that, but a wet ground argues for some fog. Regardless… we will be very close to records.

Highs will generally range in the 70s through Wednesday with a daily threat for showers and even an isolated thunderstorm. Any areas getting in on afternoon clouds and showers may see temps in the upper 60s to low 70s.

The deep trough will leave behind a closed upper level low by the coming weekend…

GFS 5

That should lead to an increase in showers and a few thunderstorms by late week into the coming weekend. Afternoon temps won’t respond very might with highs from the upper 70s to low 80s.

How about the first week of August? The cooler than normal pattern remains…

GFS 2

There is some data suggesting August turns out similar to July with much below normal temperatures. Summer? Meh… who needs it. ;)

I leave you with today’s trackers…

Current temperatures

Have a great day and take care.

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Tornado Watch Until 2am

Good evening. A TORNADO WATCH is out for much of central and eastern Kentucky until 2am. Storms will continue to get out on their own and there continues to be enough spin in the atmosphere to create the threat for tornadoes. Large hail and damaging winds will also be possible.

Here’s what you need to track the storms…

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

I will be using twitter to send out quick thoughts, warnings and storm reports. Make sure to follow @kentuckyweather .

Take care.

 

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Significant Severe Weather Event Possible

Good Sunday, everyone. Today has the potential to spawn a significant severe weather event across parts of central and eastern Kentucky. This setup is something you normally see during the spring and not on the final weekend of July.

Warm and juicy air continues to stream in from the south and southwest. This is ahead of a very potent cold front that could bring record cold temps our way in the coming days. That clash of air masses is likely to lead to a very active weather day across our region.

The atmosphere will feature much more in the way of spin and that could lead to a few tornadoes going up across the eastern Ohio Valley. That threat looks to include the eastern half of Kentucky. Damaging winds and hail will also be possible.

Here are some trackers to start things off…

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

I will be using twitter to send out quick thoughts, warnings and storm reports. Make sure to follow @kentuckyweather .

Have a great day and take care.

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Severe Thunderstorm Watch Until 4am

Good evening, gang. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH has been issued for much of western and central Kentucky until 4am EST. A line of strong and severe thunderstorms will roll eastward across the state this into the wee hours of the morning.

Damaging winds will be likely with this line. Torrential rainfall may cause local high water issues. I have you all set to track the action…

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

I will have rapid fire updates and warnings coming your way via twitter.

Take care.

 

 

 

 

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Watching The Severe Threat

Good Saturday and welcome to the final weekend of July. Things are looking rather active out there late today into Sunday as strong and severe thunderstorms rumble in. These storms may bring damaging winds and even a tornado threat to our part of the world.

Here’s a breakdown:

- Steamy conditions will invade the state today as humidity levels and temps take off. Upper 80s to around 90 will be possible in central and eastern Kentucky with low 90s in the west.

- Isolated showers and storms will be possible during the daylight hours.

- A complex of storms will likely form to our northwest this afternoon and roll our way late this evening into the overnight. That could be a damaging wind maker and contain torrential rains that may cause local high water issues into Sunday morning.

- The actual cold front enters the picture Sunday afternoon and should spawn additional strong to severe thunderstorms. A few of these storms COULD get out on their own and deliver a small tornado threat.

- September air tumbles in behind the front by Monday. Leftover showers, gusty winds and much cool air sweeps in. Highs will likely stay in the 70s from Monday through Wednesday with the potential for lows to drop into the upper 40s to low 50s on any night with clear skies.

Let’s get to tracking…

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

I will have updates as needed. Have a great day and take care.

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