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Time posted: 1:17 am
Good Sunday, folks. We have some great looking weather across the region for the next couple of days. That said, cold fronts are lining up to have, at least, some impact on our weather for the week ahead.
Today is very windy with highs in the middle and upper 60s for many. A few clouds will be noted this afternoon as a weak front slides by to our north. This knocks the numbers down into the low and middle 60s for Monday. Clear skies Monday night should allow for areas of frost to form in the central and east…
Highs Tuesday will be back in the low and middle 60s.
A cold front arrives Wednesday night and Thursday with gusty showers on the increase…
As that pushes through, Thursday night could know the temps back into the 30s, and give us a chance at some patchy frost.
Another system is likely to move our way at some point this weekend into Halloween…
The models all play that differently as this system will be riding along quite the temperature gradient. Depending on how all this plays our, our temps could go really mild or really chilly. I’m not quite sure how to play that at the moment, but I’m leaning mild.
The longer range pattern continues to evolve toward one that can get winter off and running much earlier than normal. I’m already on record say I expect our first true snowfall to come before November is over.
Have a great Sunday and take care.
Time posted: 1:33 am
Good Saturday, everyone. We finally have a rather typical fall pattern settling in across the bluegrass state. This air is going to keep temps on the pleasant side with some pretty nice weather days ahead. That said, this pattern continues to show some big signs of revving up. If you’re a fan of winter weather, you have to like the look going into November and December!
Let’s start with the weather out there today and roll forward. Temps will be in the 30s to start with some patchy frost. Highs will range from the low 60s west to mid 50s east. A mix of sun and clouds will be noted with winds still on the gusty side.
Sunday looks very windy as temps recover deep into the 60s. Basically, it’s a perfect fall day.
A weak front slides through early Monday, but shouldn’t have any moisture with it. It will knock the temps down to 60-65 for highs into Tuesday. There is a frost threat Tuesday into Wednesday mornings across central and eastern Kentucky.
Clouds will quickly increase late Wednesday with the possibility of showers and some thunder moving in. This is ahead of another wet weather maker into Thursday…
The GFS is indicating the potential for another round of heavy rains…
Temps on Thursday should be back in the 50s as winds switch around to the northwest.
I will touch on where we go from there with my next update. It’s getting close to two a days for the blog. 😉
Have a great Saturday and take care.
Time posted: 3:18 am
Good Friday to one and all. The big change is finally here with much colder air taking control of the pattern across our part of the world. This change delivered some beneficial rains to the region, and we have more out there today for some.
I promised you some winter talk, but I want to focus some on the short range before we get to that.
Gusty showers will be located across much of central and eastern Kentucky to start the day. Those showers will slowly taper from west to east into the afternoon, but the east may not shake the rain until evening. Highs will range from the low and mid 50s east to near 60 in the west. Winds are going to continue to be very gusty.
Temperatures by Saturday morning will drop into the mid and upper 30s for most of the state. I’m not expecting much in the way of frost as winds will likely stay a bit too high for that to happen. The rest of Saturday is windy with highs mainly in the 50s.
Sunday looks good with low and middle 60s ahead of a weak front passing by just to our north. That will knock the numbers back down a few degrees later Monday and Tuesday. I could even see a touch of frost developing by Tuesday morning.
The next system works in here later Wednesday and Thursday. This could be a rain maker for much of the region with a colder blast of air to follow…
A +PNA, -NAO and -AO are all favorable for increasing cold shots across the eastern half of the country. The EPO is still forecast to be positive. If we can get that to flip to negative… look out. There are indications we see that once into November.
Okay, let’s talk winter.
Snow cover across the Northern Hemisphere is off to a fast start…
That’s well above normal in many areas…
Dr. Judah Cohen has become very popular over the years for his forecasting of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the Polar Vortex. He has some interesting theories about the buildup of October snow cover in Eurasia and how it may impact the winter ahead. His forecast is for a cold central and eastern United States. Here’s the outlook and his summation…
Predicted winter surface temperature anomalies for the United States Dec-Jan-Feb 2016/17 in degrees Fahrenheit. The model is forecasting colder than normal temperatures for much of the Eastern United States, with warmer than normal temperatures for the Western United States. The model uses October Siberian snow cover, sea level pressure anomalies, predicted El Niño/Southern Oscillation anomalies, and observed September Arctic sea ice anomalies. October Siberian snow cover has so far this month advanced at an above normal rate. This is an indication of an increased probability of a weakened polar vortex or a sudden stratospheric warming, and a predominantly negative Arctic Oscillation during the winter and cold temperatures – especially east of the Mississippi. This is a preliminary forecast and not the official winter forecast as the model requires full monthly values for snow cover and sea level pressure anomalies. The forecast will be updated next month. Current forecast produced on October 19, 2016.
Credit: Judah Cohen, AER, Inc.
That’s a heckuva winter Dr. Cohen is going for. The above map looks like several of the analog years I’ve been hinting at over the past few months. One thing I feel pretty good about is a fast start to winter. I will be surprised if we don’t have our first true snowfall before November is finished.
Have a great Friday and take care.
Time posted: 1:38 am
Good Thursday, folks. FINALLY, we have a busy weather day taking shape across the commonwealth of Kentucky. A strong cold front is brining booming showers and thunderstorms, gusty winds and a big temperature drop. This ends of recent run of obnoxious warm temps.
Today’s showers and storms can put down some decent totals as they sweep eastward. The best chance for strong storms will be across the central and eastern part of the state. Your tracking tools in a bit.
Winds are going to be cranking with gusts of 30mph-40mph possible as the colder air sweeps in from west to east.
Leftover showers get out of town by Friday afternoon with some sunshine returning. Winds will be very gusty and usher in the coldest air of the season with highs in the 50s. Mid and upper 30s are a good bet for many by Saturday morning…
Winds are likely to remain too high for widespread frost to develop, though some patchy stuff is certainly possible.
Saturday is another windy and chilly day with low 60s west and middle 50s east. All of this happens as our storm strengthens across new England. This may put down snow in New England and could cause the first flakes to fly in the highest elevations of the Appalachian Mountains…
That shows some flakes in the high mountains just to our east.
Nice weather returns to the region from Sunday through early next week with highs mainly in the 60s. This will then set the stage for another potent storm system to impact our weather late in the week into Halloween weekend…
The latest GFS has a winter look to start November…
Speaking of winter, the next update will be heavily focused on some of the signs I’m seeing for the winter ahead.
Let’s get back to tracking the one impacting the region today…
Today’s risk area
Make it a great day and take care.
Time posted: 2:23 am
Good Wednesday, everyone. Big changes are blowing across the bluegrass state over the next few days. Those changes start today with some scattered storms that can be on the strong side. The big news comes Thursday into Friday as rain chances really increase and temps decrease.
Scattered showers and storms out there today can be on the strong side, especially in the west and north. I will have your tracking tools for those in a moment. Temps will range from the upper 70s to low 80s as winds stay very gusty.
Widespread rain and thunderstorms work across the region on Thursday. Some of the storms may be strong and put down very heavy rainfall. Winds will be very gusty with a big temperature crash from west to east.
Showers linger into the first half of Friday across the central and east. Winds stay gusty with highs in the 50s. This means temps in the 40s for high school football games.
Lows by Saturday morning will be deep in the 30s…
If we can get the winds to calm down, widespread frost would be likely. Saturday’s highs will range from 60 in the far west to the low and middle 50s east. Skies stay partly sunny.
I have you all set to do some Wednesday storm tracking…
Today’s risk area
Make it a great day and take care.