Category Archives: Uncategorized

Updating The Active Pattern

Good evening, everyone. This active winter weather pattern continues and will try to ramp it up a notch this weekend into early next week.

Our first system is an arctic front that arrives Friday into Friday night. It’s looking more and more like that will have a band of snow accompanying it across much of the region. Light accumulations could cause some Friday evening as winds gust up. Temps behind this crash into Saturday with more snow showers and flurries.

The forecast for late Sunday into early next week continues to be on to keep a very close eye on. A storm system is likely to develop and work across the Tennessee Valley. That system then likely turns the corner and rides up the Appalachian Mountains.

Many of the latest forecast models show a powerful storm winter storm developing out of this. The European Model…

Euro

The snow map from WeatherBELL from that run is farthest north of any of the models…

Euro Snow

The control run of the European Ensembles from WeatherBELL…

Euro 4

The average from all the European Ensembles members suggest some disagreement on what to do with this, so it broad brushes everything…

Euro 3

Two other models I look at show some very interesting looks. Check out the JMA…

JMA

The UKMET has an even wilder look…

UKMET

I will update all of this potential later tonight. Until then, you know the drill…

I leave you with your tracking toys for the afternoon…

Have a great evening and take care.

32 Comments

Wednesday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, gang. Today is a full blown “frozen tundra” day across much of the bluegrass state. Blinding snow squalls, blowing snow, gusty winds and frigid temps are combining forces to give us another taste of the north. Guess what? We have more winter on the way.

A streak of light snow moves into western Kentucky late today into tonight. This action weakens along the way…

NAM

Some light accumulations will be noted in the far west with that batch. Snow showers and flurries will FINALLY start to wind down for the rest of the region. Temps tonight in the central and east can drop into the high single digits if skies clear some.

A true arctic front moves in later Friday, but may have a wave of low pressure along it. The NAM is increasing the chance for some light snow Friday into Friday evening…

NAM 2

The same model fires up the Lake Michigan snow shower/squall machine for Saturday…

NAM 3Temps on Saturday may not get out of the upper teens for highs in some areas. Lows by Sunday morning can drop into the single digits.

Later on Valentine’s Day, we will track a system working in from the west. I’m still not sure how this works out or how strong it can get, but it has plenty of potential. The GFS is still rather convoluted with the scenario, but is picking up on it finally…

GFS

I’ll have a full update on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm, and another blog update this evening.

I leave you with your tracking toys for the afternoon…

Enjoy the day and take care.

16 Comments

More Winter Weather Ahead

Good Wednesday, everyone. Old Man Winter continues to send snow showers and squalls our way today, but the main focus in on where this pattern takes us into the coming weekend. A couple of snow makers appear to be in the making… One of which we will really need to keep a close eye on.

Temps out there today will top out in the upper teens and low 20s with snow showers and flurries rolling on. That action slowly winds down later this evening as a weak system pushes into western Kentucky. That should bring a period of light snow, but it really diminishes as it works into the area.

The next system is along an arctic cold front moving in here Friday into Friday evening. That should produce a swath of light snow for much of the region…

Canadian

Gusty winds and arctic air surges in behind this. Temps by Saturday may not get past the upper teens and low 20s again. Lows by Sunday morning could hit the single digits…

GFS TEMPS 1This sets the stage for another system to dive in from the plains states. This will try to work across the Tennessee Valley before turning the corner up the Appalachian Mountains or the east coast. We’re still a few days away from figuring out how this whole thing plays out. The latest Models continue to show this system well.

Here’s the Canadian…

Canadian

The European Model has a much more wrapped up storm…

Euro 2

Taken verbatim, that’s a healthy snowstorm for much of our part of the world. We still have a ways to go before we get to jacked up, but a nice signal continues to show itself.

I leave you with your Wednesday winter weather trackers…

I will have updates later today. Make it a good one and take care.

10 Comments

Tuesday Evening Update

Good evening, gang. We continue to see snow showers and squalls working in from the northwest. Lake Michigan will provide a little boost to this action tonight into Wednesday morning. Additional light accumulations are likely with some hot spot totals of another inch or two possible.

I continue to focus on late week into the coming weekend as we have a lot more action on the way. A fast moving clipper will deliver some light snows to parts of western and central Kentucky late Wednesday night into Thursday morning…

NAM

A quick inch or two is possible for the areas picking up on the light snow.

The next system is a true arctic front sweeping into the region late Friday. That should also have a band of snow centered farther northeast compared to the Thursday light snow maker…

Euro

Bitterly cold temps and wind chill numbers come in behind that for Friday night into Saturday.

The next storm system continues to show up very well on the forecast models. The European Model is just a little farther south with the system…

Euro 2

This continues to look very interesting as we get closer. The potential is there for this storm to dig in from the northwest then ride up the Appalachian Mountains. Stay tuned.

Your friendly winter weather trackers take you through the evening…

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road
Lexington
I-75 @ Winchester Road

I-75 @ Iron Works Pike
Lexington

I-75 @ Clays Ferry Bridge South
Between Lexington and Richmond

US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort

US60 @ US127

US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
US60 @ US460

US 60 @ Chenault Road
Near Millville
US60 @ Chenault Road

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown
I75 NB @ MP 127

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

Mountain Parkway near Slade

I-71/I-75 at I-275
Near Covington
I-71/I-75 @ I-275

I-275 at Mineola Pike
Near Covington
I-275 @ Mineola Pike

I-275 approaching KY 20/Airport
Near Covington
I-275 East of KY 20/Airport Exit

Bluegrass Parkway Bardstown

I-65 MP 32

Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway
Louisville
Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway

I-64 @ I-264
Louisville
I-64 @ I-264

I-264 @ Freedom Way
Near Louisville International Airport
I-264 @ Freedom Way

I-75 at MP 36
London
I-75 @ MP 36

I-75 at MP 23
Corbin

I-75 @ MP 23
-65 @ 234
Near Bowling Green
I-65 @ 234

Natcher Parkway MP 5
Near Bowling Green
Natcher Parkway @ MP 5

Enjoy the evening and take care.

14 Comments

Tuesday Midday Update

Good afternoon, everyone. Snow showers and squalls continue across the region, and that action will get a boost later today from Lake Michigan. This will carry us into Wednesday with even colder air moving in. That means slick roads are a given at times.

I have no changes to the Thursday and Friday ideas with a couple of clippers moving in. Those will bring bands of light snow with them, and the second one unleashes another blast of arctic cold for the weekend.

The late weekend storm system continues to send out a solid signal. The Canadian Model from late Sunday through Tuesday…

CanadianThe GFS is finally starting to pick up on this, but that model is proving worthless in the medium range. As I’ve been saying, that’s one to keep a very close eye on.

I will have another update later today. Until then, keep your eyes on the winter weather trackers…

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road
Lexington
I-75 @ Winchester Road

I-75 @ Iron Works Pike
Lexington

I-75 @ Clays Ferry Bridge South
Between Lexington and Richmond

US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort

US60 @ US127

US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
US60 @ US460

US 60 @ Chenault Road
Near Millville
US60 @ Chenault Road

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown
I75 NB @ MP 127

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

Mountain Parkway near Slade

I-71/I-75 at I-275
Near Covington
I-71/I-75 @ I-275

I-275 at Mineola Pike
Near Covington
I-275 @ Mineola Pike

I-275 approaching KY 20/Airport
Near Covington
I-275 East of KY 20/Airport Exit

Bluegrass Parkway Bardstown

I-65 MP 32

Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway
Louisville
Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway

I-64 @ I-264
Louisville
I-64 @ I-264

I-264 @ Freedom Way
Near Louisville International Airport
I-264 @ Freedom Way

I-75 at MP 36
London
I-75 @ MP 36

I-75 at MP 23
Corbin

I-75 @ MP 23
-65 @ 234
Near Bowling Green
I-65 @ 234

Natcher Parkway MP 5
Near Bowling Green
Natcher Parkway @ MP 5

Stay warm and take care.

24 Comments

A Busy Week Of Winter Weather

Good Tuesday, everyone. We have more rounds of snow showers and squalls across the region today as the overall weather pattern is full blown winter. Additional rounds of snow showers will hang around for the next few days as arctic air surges in here.

The heavy band of snow I was watching for earlier in the day is setting up… across southern Ohio. Areas just north of the river may get some smackdown snows early today. Grr!

Northwesterly winds will really kick in today into tonight and that will get Lake Michigan involved. Snow showers and a few squalls will continue through Wednesday. Here’s the simulated radar from the Hi-Res NAM…

NAM

The fluff factor will be very high during this time and that means it doesn’t take much moisture to produce snowflakes. It also means the radars won’t fully pick up on the flakes. Gusty winds will blow that around. Temps by Wednesday may not get out of the upper teens for highs in some areas…

NAM 2

Lows by Thursday morning may sneak into the high single digits in some areas. That’s before another clipper arrives with a swath of light snow for parts of the state…

GFS

The next clipper digs in later Friday with another shot of arctic air behind it. This one should be able to produce another swath of light snow across the region…

Euro

Arctic cold surges back in for Saturday and Sunday. That’s when we focus on the next system quickly moving in here late Sunday and Monday…

Euro 2

That’s the latest from the European Model. The Canadian Model is similar…

Canadian

That’s one to keep a very close eye on in the coming days.

Oh yeah… the European Model follows that up with another clipper a day later…

Euro 3

To be honest… I’m good If none of this happens. You know how I get around this time of year! :)

Updates will come your way later today. Until then, here’s another dose of your winter weather tracking tools…

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road
Lexington
I-75 @ Winchester Road

I-75 @ Iron Works Pike
Lexington

I-75 @ Clays Ferry Bridge South
Between Lexington and Richmond

US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort

US60 @ US127

US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
US60 @ US460

US 60 @ Chenault Road
Near Millville
US60 @ Chenault Road

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown
I75 NB @ MP 127

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

Mountain Parkway near Slade

I-71/I-75 at I-275
Near Covington
I-71/I-75 @ I-275

I-275 at Mineola Pike
Near Covington
I-275 @ Mineola Pike

I-275 approaching KY 20/Airport
Near Covington
I-275 East of KY 20/Airport Exit

Bluegrass Parkway Bardstown

I-65 MP 32

Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway
Louisville
Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway

I-64 @ I-264
Louisville
I-64 @ I-264

I-264 @ Freedom Way
Near Louisville International Airport
I-264 @ Freedom Way

I-75 at MP 36
London
I-75 @ MP 36

I-75 at MP 23
Corbin

I-75 @ MP 23
-65 @ 234
Near Bowling Green
I-65 @ 234

Natcher Parkway MP 5
Near Bowling Green
Natcher Parkway @ MP 5

Make it a terrific Tuesday and take care.

30 Comments

Monday Evening Update

Good evening, everyone. Rounds of snow showers and squalls continue to push across the bluegrass state. This action continues through Tuesday with additional snow showers coming on Wednesday. All of this action will continue to “nickel and dime” us with accumulating snows.

A heavier band of snow should setup tonight across the Interstate 64 corridor and points north. That doesn’t mean the rest of the area doesn’t get snow, it’s just an area of greater potential developing.

Additional rounds of snow showers and squalls will take us through Tuesday and into Wednesday. Most areas will pick up a general 1″-4″ snow during this time, with locally higher amounts. Snowfall… not snow depth. Bitterly cold temps arrive Wednesday into Thursday with wind chills that may drop below zero at times.

The European Model continues to show a snow system for Friday into Friday night…

EuroThat unleashes another round of arctic cold for the weekend. The European isn’t as strong with the Friday system and goes back to showing a stronger Sunday into Monday system…

Euro 2

The Canadian Model still shows it…

Canadian

The European Ensembles average snowfall over the next week likes our region…

Euro 4

I leave you with your snow tracking toys…

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road
Lexington
I-75 @ Winchester Road

I-75 @ Iron Works Pike
Lexington

I-75 @ Clays Ferry Bridge South
Between Lexington and Richmond

US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort

US60 @ US127

US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
US60 @ US460

US 60 @ Chenault Road
Near Millville
US60 @ Chenault Road

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown
I75 NB @ MP 127

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

Mountain Parkway near Slade

I-71/I-75 at I-275
Near Covington
I-71/I-75 @ I-275

I-275 at Mineola Pike
Near Covington
I-275 @ Mineola Pike

I-275 approaching KY 20/Airport
Near Covington
I-275 East of KY 20/Airport Exit

Bluegrass Parkway Bardstown

I-65 MP 32

Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway
Louisville
Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway

I-64 @ I-264
Louisville
I-64 @ I-264

I-264 @ Freedom Way
Near Louisville International Airport
I-264 @ Freedom Way

I-75 at MP 36
London
I-75 @ MP 36

I-75 at MP 23
Corbin

I-75 @ MP 23
-65 @ 234
Near Bowling Green
I-65 @ 234

Natcher Parkway MP 5
Near Bowling Green
Natcher Parkway @ MP 5

Enjoy the evening and take care.

12 Comments

Bands Of Heavy Snow Setting Up

Good afternoon, everyone. Bands of moderate to heavy snow continue to develop across the bluegrass state and this is a sign of things to come. It’s apparent the models are woefully underestimating these bands, and are playing catch up. Several spots have already picked up 1″-2″ by noon. Other areas have yet to see much. That’s the nature of this kind of action.

Current indications are for a few hot spots of heavy snow to continue this afternoon into the evening. These “hot spots” can easily pick up 2″-3″ of snow. A full blown band of heavy snow looks to develop this evening into tonight across our region. My current thinking is this sets up along and north of the Interstate 64 corridor. That band by itself can drop 4″ or more inches of snow…

Special 2

That doesn’t mean everyone will see 4″ of snow, and that doesn’t include the widespread snow showers and squalls that carry us through Tuesday and into Wednesday. I’m just highlighting the potential heavy snow band tonight.

The HI RES NAM has some crazy totals within that zone…

NAM

This is Winter Storm Warning stuff if it verifies.

I will update things later today on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm. Another update comes your way this evening. I leave you with all your tracking tools…

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road
Lexington
I-75 @ Winchester Road

I-75 @ Iron Works Pike
Lexington

I-75 @ Clays Ferry Bridge South
Between Lexington and Richmond

US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort

US60 @ US127

US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
US60 @ US460

US 60 @ Chenault Road
Near Millville
US60 @ Chenault Road

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown
I75 NB @ MP 127

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

Mountain Parkway near Slade

I-71/I-75 at I-275
Near Covington
I-71/I-75 @ I-275

I-275 at Mineola Pike
Near Covington
I-275 @ Mineola Pike

I-275 approaching KY 20/Airport
Near Covington
I-275 East of KY 20/Airport Exit

Bluegrass Parkway Bardstown

I-65 MP 32

Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway
Louisville
Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway

I-64 @ I-264
Louisville
I-64 @ I-264

I-264 @ Freedom Way
Near Louisville International Airport
I-264 @ Freedom Way

I-75 at MP 36
London
I-75 @ MP 36

I-75 at MP 23
Corbin

I-75 @ MP 23
-65 @ 234
Near Bowling Green
I-65 @ 234

Natcher Parkway MP 5
Near Bowling Green
Natcher Parkway @ MP 5

 

 

28 Comments

Rounds Of Snow and Bitter Cold

Good Monday, everyone. Back in late January, I highlighted the period of February 7-11 for the return of harsh winter weather. That time has arrived and we have a lot of harsh winter weather settling into our region. As a matter of fact, some of the current models are taking a big walk on the wild side over the next week.

There is so much going on, I’m finding it hard to highlight any one threat. This post is likely to be all over the place, so buckle those seatbelts and let’s roll.

Our first blast of winter weather is moving through early today with a band of rain and snows. Some slush is possible in a few areas, but the main bands of snow arrive late today into the evening. Between these two, temps will briefly spike, before they crash during the evening.

Snow showers and squalls become widespread later today and last through tonight and Tuesday. Early on, some thunder is a possibility! These squalls will have blinding snows and very gusty winds.

This action continues into Wednesday as arctic cold settles in. Temps on Wednesday may not get out of the upper teens for highs with single digit wind chills. Actual thermometer readings Thursday morning may drop into the single digits for many.

This is when we get another system to zip in from the northwest. That could have another streak of light accumulating snows. The GFS continues to indicate the snows add up from late today through Thursday…

GFS 2

Between late today through Thursday, this is likely to be a widespread 2″-5″ snowfall for much of the state. Lighter amounts will be noted in the far west, with higher amounts in the southeast. Again, this is not all falling at once and comes over the next 4 days.

A MAJOR blast of arctic air then arrives late Friday into the weekend. The GFS and Canadian Models show another round of snow with this…

GFS

GFS

Canadian…

Canadian

The European Model decided it wants to make turn that system into a full blown arctic wave snowstorm…

Euro 2Holy cow! Given the arctic air in place, that would REALLY fluff up and blow around. The European continues to bring, what amounts to, the polar vortex close to our region…

Euro 4The actual Valentine’s Day lows from the European Model via WeatherBELL…

Euro 3

Funny thing is, the European Model surface temps are usually biased warmer than what actually occurs.

The same model run then goes on to show another snow maker from Sunday night into early next week. It’s not as strong as the earlier run with that, but more than makes up for it with the Friday arctic snowstorm.

The Canadian Model still has a huge storm…

Canadian 2

Watch that wrap up to our northeast…

Canadian 4

For fun, here’s the what the Canadian Model shows for snowfall from today through next Monday…

Canadian 3

That’s just a snapshot in time of what a computer model thinks will happen, so keep that in mind. However, we are certainly seeing some extreme possibilities showing up on all the models over the next week. Like I said, buckle up!

I will update things later today. Until then, track winter back into the region…

Enjoy the day and take care.

31 Comments

Super Bowl Sunday Update

Good Sunday and Happy Super Bowl. Old Man Winter is about to surge back into the bluegrass state with rounds of snow and arctic cold temperatures.

The first system zips in here tonight and Monday morning with a band of rain and snow. This starts as rain, but should quickly go over to snow and could put down a slushy accumulation for some areas. Here’s the Hi Res NAM simulated radar to start Monday…

NAM 3

Temps directly behind that first wave stay above freezing into Monday afternoon. That changes as the next wave of snow showers and squalls move in from Monday afternoon into Monday evening. There is a definitive convective look to the future radar during this time…

NAM

That means the potential for blinding snow squalls that can drop a quick inch or two in a short amount of time. Winds would blow that around and we even have a small threat for some thundersnow.

The 10-1 (no fluff factor) snowfall map from that same run suggests some serious squall potential…

NAM 4

Travel issues will likely develop Monday night into Tuesday. I anticipate Winter Weather Advisories being issues for much for much of the region. They are certainly warranted, but that’s out of my control.

The northwesterly flow really kicks on Tuesday into Tuesday night with widespread snow showers and some squalls continuing…

NAM 2

Bitterly cold temps continue to push in during this time as snow showers last into Wednesday. Highs Wednesday and Thursday will have a hard time getting out or the teens with single digit lows possible. Below zero wind chills continue to show up at times…

GFS Temps

Another clipper dives in later Friday with a fresh round of arctic air for the weekend…

Euro 2

The European Model continues to show a healthy snowstorm by next Sunday and Monday…

Euro 3

I will have the very latest on WKYT-TV tonight after the Super Bowl. Until then, I have your tracking toys…

Enjoy the rest of your Sunday and take care.

13 Comments