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Time posted: 1:44 am

A Much Warmer Setup Ahead

Good Tuesday, everybody. Heavy rain continues to target our region today, but I’m looking ahead toward a warmer overall look. That’s a long overdue look and it should be arriving just in time to kick off the month of May and Kentucky Derby week.

Let’s get things started with the heavy rains falling our there today. Our slow-moving area of low pressure continues to spin across Kentucky. Ahead of this, a comma looking band of showers and thunderstorms may be putting down enough water to cause some issues…

The rains will slowly end on Wednesday, as temperatures stay cooler than normal. Some late day sun will boost temps into the 60s for several areas.

Thursday looks awesome with highs ranging from 65-70 degrees with mostly sunny skies.

The upper level system diving in here on Friday continues to look more progressive and less impressive…

Notice how that no longer closes off, but zips in and out without a lot of fanfare.  A few gusty showers will be noted, with just a few hours of chill coming Friday night and Saturday morning.

Watch how quickly a big ridge takes over by Sunday…

That should bring the 70s in here VERY quickly, with nice weather settling in. This is out longest and strongest stretch of true spring weather, so far. That ridge really pops into Kentucky Derby Week…

As I’ve mentioned for a few days, 80+ degree temps are likely to show up under that type of ridge. You can also see a deep western trough on the above map. In between the two, some big thunderstorms may roam. Watch how that pushes farther east by Derby weekend…

That setup can bring severe weather from the plains into the Ohio Valley at some point next week. This has been a very, very odd severe weather season across the country. Even as cold as it has been in Kentucky, we have still had 22 tornadoes already, which is way above normal for this time period. That’s 22 more tornadoes than Oklahoma and Kansas COMBINED. That’s right, the heart of tornado alley has not had a single tornado and the month of April is a week from wrapping up. That’s insane.

Kentucky’s 22 tornadoes are second only to Alabama’s 30.

I will have another update later today. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 7:29 pm

Monday Evening Update

Good evening, everyone. Rounds of heavy rain continue to press across the bluegrass state, as a slow-moving low pressure moves in. This will bring some additional rains over the next few days, with temps staying below normal.

I wanted to drop by for another update on the potential for a comma head band of heavy rain impacting some areas through early Tuesday. You can see this band developing and slowly working across the state…

Some thunder and lightning will also be possible within that band. Given the slow movement, local high water problems may develop.

Track away…

I mentioned the cool temps continuing. Here are the highs for the next few days…

TUESDAY

WEDNESDAY

Another system will then dive in here from the northwest by Thursday night and Friday. This comes from a big upper level low spinning through the region. The latest trend is for a weaker and fast moving system, leading to less of a chill Watch how quickly the trough is replaced by a ridge by Sunday…

. This will usher in a pretty warm setup for Kentucky Derby week. Temps may hit 80 or better during this time, but thunderstorms may crash the party as the week wears on.

Enjoy the rest of your day and take care.

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Time posted: 1:08 am

Heavy Rain Starts The Week

Good Monday, everyone. Rounds of heavy rain and rolling across the bluegrass state today, as a slow-moving low spins just to our south. This kicks off a very unsettled week, but I’m tracking a true spring setup as we open the month of May. Can I get a woot? 🙂

Let us start with the precious present and then hit the fast forward button.

Heavy rain is out there today, especially across the western half of the state. Rain totals since Sunday are greater than 2″-3″ for some, leading to a local high water threat. Watch for a comma head of heavy rain to slowly work across the rest of the state through Tuesday. That could also put down enough rain to cause some issues. Track away…

Scattered showers may be joined by a few thunderstorms Tuesday into Wednesday. This action is from a second system working across the region.

From there, a big upper level system dives in from the northwest for Friday and Saturday…

That brings chilly showers our way, to go along with gusty winds. The high ground of the Appalachian Mountains may see some snowflakes out of this setup.

The chilly air will quickly be replaced by a major warm up, and that may start by Sunday. This leads us into Kentucky Derby week, with a big ridge of high pressure controlling our weather…

Temps can make a run at the 80s, but that trough in the west is going to try and kick east later in the week. That may mean a stormy pattern unfolds by Kentucky Derby weekend.

I will have another update later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 3:04 pm

Sunday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. Heavy rain continues to slowly develop from southwest to northeast across the bluegrass state. This is kicking off a very active final week of April, featuring several wet weather makers rolling through. Some ugly is showing up by the weekend, but we flip the switch to spring for Derby week.

I have no real changes to the rounds of rain and thunderstorms rolling through here over the next few days. Heavy amounts of rain are likely to fall across the region during this time, with the potential for some local high water issues. The best chance for that is in the west through Monday.

The models continue to show the heavy rain potential, with some 3″+ spots…

Here’s regional radar to track the increase in the action…

The system diving in here from Friday into the weekend is pretty darn impressive for this time of year. Check out how this thing looks at 500mb…

That type of look can bring some very chilly temps, gusty winds, showers and even some high elevation snowflakes.

The good news is that it isn’t going to hang around forever, with mother nature trying to flip a switch to spring as we head into Kentucky Derby week. Watch this big ridge develop across the eastern half of the country, sending the cold into the west…

Warm temps are likely to develop for the week, but we will need to be on guard for some big thunderstorms lurking as we get closer to the big weekend.

Enjoy the rest of your day and take care.

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Time posted: 1:33 am

Heavy Rain Slowly Develops

Good Sunday, folks. Our run of very nice weather days is about to come to an end, with rounds of heavy rain settling back in. This action may even bring a local high water threat as we roll through the next few days, leading us into a very active and ugly week ahead.

Clouds continue to thicken today, with heavy rain developing across the west. This is in response to a slow-moving area of low pressure rumbling into our region. Heavy rains appear to be a good bet, leading to a local flood threat for some. Here’s the area of greatest concern through Monday…

This looks like a general 1″-3″ rain for much of the region, with the Greatest Risk area potentially picking up more than 3″ of rain.

Here’s your regional radar to track the developing rains across the west…

Additional showers and some thunderstorms will move in here Tuesday into Wednesday as another system dives in from the northwest.

A bigger system will come in behind that from Friday into the coming weekend. That one is courtesy of another cold air outbreak, bringing chilly showers, gusty winds and the potential for high elevation flakes…

That is one ugly weather maker that, when you think about it, makes for a very appropriate end to April. It’s been an ugly month for our region and much of the country. This is a lot of real estate with colder than normal numbers so far this month…

The first 4 months of the year are averaging colder than normal…

That’s impressive given the extreme warmth we had in February, which was among the warmest ever here in Kentucky.

I will update things later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

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