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Watching The Severe Threat

Good Saturday and welcome to the final weekend of July. Things are looking rather active out there late today into Sunday as strong and severe thunderstorms rumble in. These storms may bring damaging winds and even a tornado threat to our part of the world.

Here’s a breakdown:

- Steamy conditions will invade the state today as humidity levels and temps take off. Upper 80s to around 90 will be possible in central and eastern Kentucky with low 90s in the west.

- Isolated showers and storms will be possible during the daylight hours.

- A complex of storms will likely form to our northwest this afternoon and roll our way late this evening into the overnight. That could be a damaging wind maker and contain torrential rains that may cause local high water issues into Sunday morning.

- The actual cold front enters the picture Sunday afternoon and should spawn additional strong to severe thunderstorms. A few of these storms COULD get out on their own and deliver a small tornado threat.

- September air tumbles in behind the front by Monday. Leftover showers, gusty winds and much cool air sweeps in. Highs will likely stay in the 70s from Monday through Wednesday with the potential for lows to drop into the upper 40s to low 50s on any night with clear skies.

Let’s get to tracking…

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

I will have updates as needed. Have a great day and take care.

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Weekend Severe Weather Threat

Good Friday afternoon, gang. Our threat for severe weather is increasing for the weekend and it may come at us in a couple of rounds. The setup is primed for some big time storms to develop between hot and humid air and potential record breaking cold.

The first round looks to form to our northwest Saturday afternoon and come rolling in Saturday evening into Saturday Night. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted this potential quite well for tomorrow…

SPC 2That may end up being a full blown complex of damaging wind producing storms that would also bring a local flash flood threat with them. These storms will then roll toward the southeast across central and eastern Kentucky into Sunday morning.

We find this cluster of storms exiting the region early in the day with the powerhouse cold front charging in from the northwest. That could ignite additional severe thunderstorms through Sunday evening. The SPC has a greater risk for severe weather with this setup…

SPCLooks like a busy severe weather weekend for much of the region. I will have the latest updates on the threat starting at 4 today on WKYT-TV.

Enjoy the rest of the day and take care.

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Steam and Storms Before Fall Temps Return

Good Friday, everyone. We’ve made it to the last Friday in the month of July and mother nature is about to give us a very wild temperature ride. We have steam and storms for the weekend with another blast of fall temps surging in by Monday.

Let’s get after it…

Today starts with readings in the cool mid and upper 50s and ends with temps in the 80-85 degree range. This goes down as another below normal temperature day in what has been a very cool month.

We will see temps surge toward 90 in many areas for Saturday as high humidity levels surge in. Western Kentucky could sneak into the middle 90s with enough sun. A thunderstorm or two will be possible from the northwestern sky. Those storm chances will really ramp up Saturday night into Sunday when severe weather will be possible. The models are hinting at a large complex of storms diving in…

NAM

This is a pretty good setup for some big time storms and we will really need to keep a close eye on the potential.

A massive trough digs in early next week and brings the potential for record low temperatures across Kentucky and surrounding states. Our dip in the jet stream hangs around through the entire week…

Euro

The end result is below normal temperatures into the first few days of August, at least. Check out the impressive 5 day temperature departure map in Celsius…

GFS 2Something familiar is showing up on the week 2 GFS setup across North America….

GFSA big block across western Canada and some little vortex setting up to the east of that. We started seeing that pattern showing up late last summer into early fall and it’s still around. Hmm

Make it a great day and take care.

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Tracking A Big Blast Of Fall

Good Thursday, everyone. Much cooler air is working into the state today, but this is just a preview of what’s to come next week. It’s another blast of fall temps that could see thermometers challenge record lows once again. This is basically the summertime version of the pattern we had this past winter.

The day will start with a few showers and storms hanging on across the region. Highs will reach the mid and upper 70s in the afternoon with a mix of sun and clouds.  Low humidity levels will make for this a perfect afternoon and evening.

Current temperatures

Lows by Friday morning will drop into the middle 50s for many areas…

GFS

Afternoon temps rebound to the 80-85 degree range with a mix of sun and clouds. Some clouds will increase on Saturday and I can’t rule out a few storms diving in from the northwest. That’s on the cusp of some plains heat that tries to shoot our way for a few hours…

GFS 3

That gets smacked down by a powerhouse of a front arriving from the northwest on Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms will increase and carry us into early Monday. This will be the beginning of a prolonged period of well below normal temperatures. Check out the deep trough digging in…

GFS 2

Record cool high temps and record lows could be challenged next week. Highs should run in the 70s for many days in a row with lows dropping into the upper 40s to low 50s…GFS 4Summer is overrated anyway! ;)

Make it a great day and take care.

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Tracking storms and cool shots

Good Wednesday, everyone. September air is set to move back into the bluegrass state and it’s announcing its arrival with showers and storms. These storms could be on the strong side later today and I have the blog all set to track the action.

Let’s break down the pattern before we watch for storms.

The storms will increase from northwest to southeast this afternoon and evening. Some of these could be strong with torrential rains. This will continue into early Thursday in southern and southeastern Kentucky as our cold front drops in.

Highs Thursday will range from the mid to upper 70s for many with even cooler air working in Thursday night. Check out the lows from the GFS for Friday morning…

GFS

Highs Friday afternoon will hit the upper 70s to low 80s with partly sunny skies. Warmer air fights in this weekend and could bring some clusters of storms moving in from the northwest. We will need to watch that setup.

All of that is ahead of a HUGE dip in the jet stream that takes up residence across the eastern half of the country early next week…

GFS 5

That will crank our additional showers and storms ahead of it Sunday into early Monday. The big news will be the amount of cool air coming in behind this. It may rival what we just went through a few weeks ago. The GFS has lost its mind with the amount of cold possible. Check out the forecast lows for Tuesday…

GFS 3

We are NOT going to see temps drop into the 30s next week… that’s absurd. But, that is the first time in my career I’ve seen a model forecast that at any point in the summer.

The overall very cool theme carries us into the start of August…

GFS 4Let’s get to tracking…

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

Have a great day and take care.

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Cold Fronts Take Center Stage

Good Tuesday, friends. We have a steamy day out there today, but the focus of the forecast is on the September setup for the coming days. Temps are set to take a big tumble for the second half of this week with a bigger push of cool air coming next week.

Highs today will hit the upper 80s to low 90s across the state. Humidity levels will continue to increase and this will lead to isolated showers and storms going up.

The real action starts on Wednesday as a strong cold front barrels in from the northwest. This will lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms and some of the storms may be strong. This will carry us into the first part of Thursday before skies start to dry. The models are spitting out some hefty rain totals during this time…

GFS Rain

Central and eastern parts of the state continue to be the target area for the heaviest rains. I suspect southeastern Kentucky does the best with lighter totals in the north and west. Sound familiar?

Highs on Thursday will likely be in the mid and upper 70s across the state with brightening skies by the end of the day. That will set the stage for very cool start to Friday…

GFS 2

The rest of Friday looks good with upper 70s to low 80s. The weekend will start with the threat for a scattered storm on Saturday with highs back in the 80s. Storm chances really increase Sunday into Monday ahead of a MASSIVE dip in the jet stream. This winter looking pattern will cause a cutoff low to form across the Great Lakes early in the week…

GFS 3

This has a shot of delivering us temps equal to or slightly cooler than last week. That, my friends, is impressive and is a continuation of the same pattern we’ve been in since late last year.

We’re not alone in all this. Check out how much of the country will see the cooler than normal air over the next week…GFS 4Have a great Tuesday and take care.

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More Shots Of September Air Ahead

Good Monday, everyone.  We have a small blast of heat moving in for a few days, but the pattern continues to be skewed way below normal. Additional shots of fall air are on the way over the next week and it looks like early August will feature more of the same. Throw in several rounds of rain and storms and you get the best of both worlds.

Temps today will hit the mid and upper 80s in central and eastern Kentucky and near 90 in the west. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible with some very muggy air in place.

Tuesday’s weather looks very similar with highs from the upper 80s to low 90s across the state. A few afternoon and evening storms may pop up.

Wednesday could be a active weather day as a strong cold front moves in from the northwest This will bring an increase in showers and thunderstorms our way and some of these could be strong by evening. Winds look to be very gusty throughout the day. Temps could hit the low 90s if the clouds and storms arrive during the evening. If they come in earlier, temps will be cooler.

Locally heavy rains are a good bet with the storms that blow through early Thursday…

GFS Check out how far below normal the models show the Thursday afternoon temps…

GFS 3

That should set us up with some very pleasant temps through the start of the weekend. This is when a stronger push of fall air arrives with even more widespread showers and thunderstorms…

GFS 2That unleashes another mega-trough that digs in early next week…

GFS 4That looks a lot like the recent shots of cool air and shows how little the overall pattern has changed since last fall. Think about it… how many anomalous dips in the jet stream have we seen since then? This has been a fairly stable pattern and I don’t see a lot of change going forward.

Back to my story… temps early next week will tank, again…

EuroThat’s a very cool end to July and I suspect it hangs around into early August. The latest forecast from the CFS shows average temps from now through Labor Day as being below normal…

CFS

Make it a great Monday and take care.

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A Quick Hit Of Heat Before More Cool Air Arrives

Good Sunday, everyone. The past week has been among the coolest you will ever find for the month of July across the bluegrass state. It’s pretty amazing the lack of attention it has gotten from many in the weather community in this region. Well… these folks will be happy for a few days. Why? We have a quick hitting blast of normal summertime heat to hype! ;)

Many areas should FINALLY crack the 80 degree mark today as scattered showers and thunderstorms goes up. The best chance will be across central and eastern Kentucky…

Current temperatures

Temps will take off over the next few days with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s across the state. This isn’t too dissimilar to what we had a week ago ahead of a cold front. The difference this time is the ground is MUCH wetter across the area. Central and eastern parts of the state picked up anywhere from 1″ to 5″ of rain during this time. Not bad!

A scattering of showers and storms will be around each afternoon through Tuesday. A cold front will cause showers and storms to increase late Wednesday into early Thursday. That could drop some pretty good rains on the region and will introduce another cooler than normal pattern…

Euro 2That should give us highs from the upper 70s to low 80s for Thursday into Friday with partly sunny skies. Readings will spike up on Saturday ahead of another cold front diving toward the state. This should touch off additional showers and thunderstorms and is being pushed by a much deeper dip in the jet stream…

Euro 3

That trough in the east is something that looks to hang tough into early August…

GFS 2The end result would be a continuation of the cooler than normal pattern…

GFS 3

GFS 4Make it a great Sunday and take care.

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A Rainy Saturday For Some

Good Saturday to one and all. Rain and thunder is kicking off the weekend for much of the bluegrass state. This is all part of a pattern that looks and feels more like fall instead of July.  Guess what? We’re not done with the cool blast of air!

Let’s hit the rain prospects before we get to the temp setup. Occasional rain and some thunder is likely today across central and eastern Kentucky. Heavy rain is likely into southern and eastern Kentucky and some areas could pick up 1″-2″. Lighter totals will be noted across the north and west.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be around to wrap up the weekend on Sunday… especially in the central and east. Highs will return to the 80s.

Scattered showers and storms will be around into the first half of next week as temps try their best to get to normal summertime readings. Another dip in the jet stream will bring another shot of cooler air by the end of the week…

Euro

That won’t be nearly as cool as where we’ve been of late, but will give us 80-85 degree readings with some sun and slightly cooler with some rain.

That looks to be followed up by an even bigger push of cool air late next weekend into early the following week…

Euro 2

Heck, even the GFS has this one…

GFSLet’s track today’s weather…

Rainfall

Current temperatures

 

Have a great Saturday and take care.

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Showers Rolling In To Start The Weekend

Good Friday, everyone. Rain will be increasing across much of the region today and that’s a trend that carries us into the weekend. The heaviest rains look to fall across central and eastern parts of the state with lighter amounts in the west and far north.

Here’s a quick breakdown…

- This is almost like something we would track in the winter months with a sharp western cutoff to the precipitation shield.

- Showers increase today from southwest to northeast. This is not a washout anywhere, but some showers will be around.

- Temps today will be warmer in the west and north and MUCH cooler for areas getting in on clouds and showers. As a matter of fact… readings may drop into the 60s as the drops fall.

- A greater slug of moisture rolls in tonight into Saturday. That’s when we will likely see the sharp gradient in the heaviest rains setting up. The best bet for heavy rain is across the south and southeast.

Track away…

Current temperatures

Scattered showers and storms will be around into the weekend as temps slowly warm. The overall pattern into next week is much warmer and more humid with a daily threat for showers and storms. That threat may be elevated because of a weakness in the atmosphere showing up right over our region…

Euro 2

That pattern looks to be replaced by another deep trough digging into the eastern half of the country sometime nest weekend…Euro 3

The GFS Ensembles have a fairly strong signal for another shot of well below normal temps as we close out July and move into early August…

GFS 2I can live with that!

Make it a great Friday and take care.

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