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Monday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, gang. It’s back to normal here on KWC… that’s if there is anything “normal” about what we do around here. :) It’s Christmas week and we have a big storm ready to work right on top of the bluegrass state. Can it bring us the infamous White Christmas? Not by the true definition, but some flakes should be able to fly.

Showers are rolling across the bluegrass state this afternoon as temps take off toward the low and mid 50s. The rain may be accompanied by some rumbles of thunder into tonight.

Current temperatures

The rain will increase later Tuesday as temps surge toward 60. Winds will also increase as our low pressure works closer to the region from the south. That storm will then work right on top of us from south to north on Wednesday. Rain, wind and thunder will be followed by crashing temps from west to east. The numbers may drop 30 degrees from Wednesday afternoon into Christmas Eve and Morning.

That cold air allows for a switch to snow showers and flurries…

NAM Winds during this time should top 30mph at times, so Santa better pack the Dramamine.

This is one heck of a holiday storm, even if it’s not going to totally “bomb” out across our region. It will impact millions of holiday travelers cross the eastern half of the country with high winds, some snow and a lot of rain. Check out how widespread these rain numbers are…


I will have another update later this evening. Merry Christmas and take care.


A Busy Christmas Week Of Weather

Good Monday, everyone. It’s Christmas week and we have a very active weather pattern settling into the region. This will bring some nasty weather our way for holiday travelers. Heavy rain, thunder, high winds and some snow will all be possible in the coming days.

A shower or two will be possible out there today as temps soar well into the 40s.

Current temperatures

Rain will really increase on Tuesday and we could even hear some rumbles of thunder. It was about this same time last year when we had a severe weather outbreak around here. That doesn’t look to be duplicated, but high winds will be a good bet

That’s because a strong storm system develops and rolls right on top of the region late Tuesday into Christmas Eve. The European Model shows the heavy rain, wind and snowflakes wrapping in behind the departing low…




The latest NAM throws a bit of a wrench into the equation as it shows a much farther east and weaker low…

NAMThat’s also a colder, quicker solution and would give us a much better chance for snow Christmas Eve into Christmas Morning. It is the NAM, so that’s the first strike against it. But, we will see if it’s sniffing something.

Another cold front will then move our way by the weekend. That one has much colder air pushing into our region and there’s some indication this thing slows down and allows a couple of waves of low pressure to develop along it…

Euro 2

I’ve had a long weekend and that’s all I can show you at this point. I will get back to you regular updates later today.

Make it a great Monday and take care.


Quick Thoughts On Christmas Week

Good Sunday to one and all. The windy city of Chicago has been great to your friendly weatherdude and it’s been good to get away and just relax a bit. I really haven’t had much time to pay attention to the weather or the models. Heck, I haven’t even tweeted much, so you know I’ve been enjoying some time off. :) We will get things back on track to start the week ahead.

The big weather news for the week ahead continues to swirl around the potential for a big storm to develop across the eastern half of the country. This system has been getting a lot of play from the weather world because the models have been going bonkers with this bad boy.

A quick check of the current models still show a heck of a storm, but they look a bit different than before. They are a little more strung out with all the energy coming out and therefore no longer “bomb” a storm out across the region.

They continue to show a lot of rain for Tuesday as winds increase. Much colder air then sweeps in for Christmas Eve with some snow flying around with very gusty winds. That lasts into Christmas morning.

Here’s the European Model…


The GFS is even slower than the European Model,but comes to a similar conclusion…

GFSWith that look, it would be hard to get much in the way of sticking snows around here. We will need to see how those models look once the upper level energy gets into an area where the models can get a better sample. As I’ve been saying for days now… some flakes flying around for Christmas Eve into Christmas Morning would be more than enough for me. I’m not greedy! :)

The overall pattern continues to progress toward a VERY cold and VERY active one for much of the country during the last few weeks of December and through January. This is a deep trough for the closing week of 2014…

Euro 2I will keep telling you, the January part of  my winter forecast is not going to be cold enough. Same thing happened last year and the overall progression has been similar to last year. Really cold in November with multiple snows… break in December and snow and cold lovers freaking out for not getting a daily snowstorm. Then January, February and March hit with brutal cold and record snows for parts of Kentucky.

I might be able to update later today. If not, a full update comes your way tonight.

Enjoy the day and take care.


Weekend Before Christmas Update

Good Saturday, everyone. A small taste of winter weather is pushing across parts of the bluegrass state early today. But, the main story of the forecast period continues to be on the potential for a Christmas Eve and Day storm system.

Today’s flakes will be early and still don’t look like a big deal, but a coating is possible for a few areas. The best chance for that should be across the southeast.

Current temperatures

Temps today will be back into the mid and upper 30s for many as the flakes wind down. Temps for Sunday will be in the upper 30s to low 40s with a mix of sun and clouds.

The main focus of the forecast continues to be on the developing storm system for late Tuesday into Christmas Eve. I like what the Canadian model is doing…


That continues to take the low right on top of us on Tuesday with heavy rain and wind. As that storm deepens into the Great Lakes, temps crash around here with a switch to some snow with snow showers and flurries Christmas Eve into Christmas Morning.

Can that scenario give us SOME snow on the ground? That remains to be seen, but some flakes should be flying around as Santa comes to town. Winds should also be super duper gusty.

The above model depiction is similar to what the folks at the WPC are thinking. Wednesday morning…


The overall pattern continues to transition into a harsh winter setup for much of the country that likely carries us into January. I mentioned in earlier posts about how the supercomputer analog years all featured big cold air outbreaks. Check out the what the models show as we wrap up 2014…

GFSThis is a very good pattern ahead for cold and snow lovers. Every system won’t produce big snows or even snow… our region should be sitting pretty on a few occasions. Several of those same supercomputer model years also featured memorable storms.

Posts today will be sporadic at best. I will tweet some thoughts.

Have a great day and take care.


Friday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, gang. Since I have some of the slowest friends on earth, I’m able to squeeze out one final update before hitting the road.


Yes, I am totally serious. They have no shame. :)

Let’s get  to the weather part of the program. A period of light snow and flurries will be possible tonight into early Saturday as our southern system skirts the bluegrass state.

The main action continues to revolve around a storm that bombs out as it lifts northward across Kentucky and into the Great Lakes. This is likely to become a powerhouse storm Christmas Eve into Christmas Day. The Canadian Model…

Canadian 2


That’s one heck of a storm. According to that model run…. it’s heavy rain and wind Tuesday with a rapid switch to snow by Wednesday morning with high winds. Snow showers and squalls would then carry us into Christmas Eve and Morning. Again… that’s what the Canadian model is showing and it’s similar to what we’ve been seeing from other models.

The European Model basically shows a similar setup…

EuroThe GFS continues a slow and steady trend toward what the above models are showing. At the VERY LEAST, snow showers, gusty winds and cold weather should be around for Christmas Eve into Christmas morning.

Btw… today is ANOTHER day with the models busting way warm! The GFS earlier this week had Lexington in the 40s for each of the past two days and today. Nope!

I want you to read this statement from my last update…

The more I look at this pattern for late month into January and then look at the supercomputer analog years that match the pattern… wow. It’s becoming very apparent my winter forecast for January was not cold enough (and it was very cold to start). I said the same thing around this time last year and we saw how that worked out. Not only are analog years that featured bitter cold showing up… several of them also produced memorable storms.

How that can be seen as a sign I’m no longer excited about the winter pattern ahead? That’s about as bold as I can be with harsh winter thoughts to be honest. :)

I will have updates as I can tonight and through the weekend. Twitter will come in handy for those wanting some quick thoughts and to follow the progress of my trip. If you aren’t into sports tweets, you may not like some you see from me. ;)

Have a great rest of the day and take care.


Looking Toward A Busy Christmas Week

Good Friday, everyone. Your friendly weatherdude will be on the road for a couple of days, so posts will come at random times instead of the normal structure you often get. My twitter feed will be alive and well with constant updates, so give me a follow. :)

Everyone is now fully paying attention to Christmas week and the potential for a healthy storm across our region and for much of the eastern part of the country. Before we get to that, we have to watch tonight’s southern system to see if it can throw some light snow our way into Saturday.

The new version of the GFS tonight and Saturday morning…


That’s some very light stuff, but it does want to target the southern half of the state for some flakes. The European Model suggests a few flakes a bit farther north than that.

Speaking of the European Model… it takes that system and stalls it off the Carolina coast later Sunday and Monday. That then allows rain to develop around here for Monday as we await the arrival of the bigger storm system late Tuesday into Christmas Eve.

The European Model shows our storm bombing out across the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes…

Euro “Bombing out” just means this storm strengthens rapidly as it pushes across the region. Taken at face value, that run shows rain and wind on Tuesday with a rapid temp drop and a change to snow by Wednesday morning. High winds and snow showers and squalls then carry us through Christmas Eve and Day. Again… I am ONLY breaking down what the model is showing. A scenario like that would put some snow on the ground.

The Hi Res GFS also shows a storm that bombs out from the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes…


The Canadian Model has a similar scenario…


The regular GFS continues to have a progressive look, but it does show, in it’s own way, a similar overall setup…


As you can see, the GFS doesn’t offer up the stronger solutions of the other models. Let’s say that worked out like that… it would STILL produce widespread snow showers and flurries with very gusty winds for Christmas Eve. To be honest… I would totally settle for just that. :)

The more I look at this pattern for late month into January and then look at the supercomputer analog years that match the pattern… wow. It’s becoming very apparent my winter forecast for January was not cold enough (and it was very cold to start). I said the same thing around this time last year and we saw how that worked out. Not only are analog years that featured bitter cold showing up… several of them also produced memorable storms.

Busy times ahead. I will have updates at some point later today. Make it a good one and take care.


Christmas Week Update

Good evening, gang. As we wrap up another dreary day in the bluegrass state, the countdown is on to Christmas! The possibility of a a huge storm system to develop for Christmas Eve and Day continues to be the focus of forecasts all across the eastern half of the country.

The idea of a deepening storm from the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes still shows up on several of the models. The new version of the GFS shows a wicked, wicked storm for millions of Americans…



That drops the barometric pressure with that storm to 965mb by Christmas morning. WOW! Talk about a HUGE wind maker!

That’s a scenario that would put snow on the ground around and cause blowing snow with winds greater than 40mph. Of course… that is IF that model were to verify.

The UKMET goes out to Christmas Eve morning and appears to be going in a similar direction with a storm lifting northward across the Ohio Valley…



UKMETThe GFS Ensembles show a huge storm developing a just to our northeast…

GFS 2  The regular run of the soon to be defunct GFS is even trying to go toward the deeper solution…


It is still likely too progressive with things, but even that run would give us very windy weather with rain to snow and snow showers and squalls through Christmas morning.

Confidence in, at least, some snow is rising.

I will update things this evening. Take caer.


Thursday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, all. The wintry mix across the west and south is winding down with a lot of clouds and cold air left for the rest of the day. A few snowflakes will be possible across the entire region, but nothing of any consequence.

We’re a week away from Christmas, so let’s look ahead at our snow chances.

The southern system for the weekend will deliver a glancing blow of winter our way, but it’s turning out more complex than that. Here’s the GFS…


It was just a few days ago that model had it raining in Chicago from this very same system. My distrust of the models is well placed and I can sometimes correct their biases… sometimes. Not all the time, obviously. :) Anyway, I’m seeing another bias of the GFS coming into play from Tuesday into Wednesday… the progressive bias. That keeps the storm from bombing out, but still produces plenty of wind, cold and snows…


The High Resolution GFS continues to show the bomb for the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes…


That’s a monster of a storm system that blanket the area in high winds and blowing snow into Christmas Day.

The Canadian Model by Wednesday morning certainly is going in that same direction…


So, even with the most progressive of solutions (the old GFS), you still get snow and gusty winds. That’s probably the weakest possible solution with this type of setup, and I wouldn’t complain a bit with that for Christmas. :)

BTW… another storm follows this one up by next Friday or Saturday. That one is likely to be pushed by true arctic air.

I will update things this evening. Take care.


Tracking A Thursday Touch Of Winter

Good Thursday, everyone. Our day is likely to start out with a wintry mix of precipitation across the western and southern parts of the bluegrass state. This could be enough to cause some slick roads for a short time and I will have a full assortment of tracking tools in a bit.

Some headlines start us out…

- Today’s action will diminish the farther east it gets, but could hang together in some fashion all the way to Interstate 75. Again, the best action will be in the west and south.

- This system turned into a much bigger one for areas just to our west. That has robbed a lot of the energy from the weekend system and that means it’s weaker and much farther south. I will fine tune what impact that has on our weather later today.

- Christmas week continues to be highlighted by a major buckle in the jet stream. This should lead to a big storm developing from the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes. The exact evolution of all this is a long way from being resolved, but it’s a very strong signal that continues to show up late Tuesday into Christmas Eve…


GFS 2- Taken verbatim, that’s rain and wind increasing Tuesday with a quick crash in temps with snow taking over Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Snow showers and squalls would then kick into high gear for Christmas eve into Christmas morning. Wind gusts of 40mph would also be possible. Again, that’s what the Ensembles run above would suggest.

- At the very least, we are likely looking at a huge temperature drop with snow showers and very gusty winds for Christmas Eve into Christmas Morning. Of course, there is the potential for a lot more, but I would totally settle with some snow showers and cold for Christmas.

- Some snow on Christmas would complete our holiday snow trifecta with Halloween and Thanksgiving also featuring flakes. I wonder how many times that has ever happened? Guess I will have to do some research soon. New year’s… you’re next. ;)

I will update things later today. In the meantime, lets track…

Current temperatures

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio

I-75 at MP 36
I-75 @ MP 36

I-75 at MP 23
I-75 @ MP 23

I-75 @ Winchester Road Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road

I-75 @ Clays Ferry Bridge South Between Lexington and Richmond

US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort

US60 @ US127

US 127 @ Frankfort Frankfort

US127 @ Frankfort KY

US 60 @ US 460
US60 @ US460

I-75 MP 127
I75 NB @ MP 127

I-64 MP 97
I-64 WB @ MP 97

I-71/I-75 at Buttermilk Pike Near Covington

I-71/I-75 @ Buttermilk Pike

I-71/I-75 at Mt. Zion Rd.
Near Covington
I-71/I-75 @ Mt. Zion Rd

I-64 @ 3rd St. Exit Louisville

I-64 @ 3rd St. Exit

Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway Louisville

Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway

I-264 @ Freedom Way
Near Louisville International Airport
I-264 @ Freedom Way

I-65 @ 234 Near Bowling Green

I-65 @ 234

I-24 MP 4 @ US 60 Paducah

I-24 @ US 60 MP 4

I-24 MP 7 @ US 62 Paducah

I-24 MP 7 @ US62






Interesting Christmas Week Weather

Good evening, all. I wanted to drop by for a quick update on the super duper active winter weather pattern developing across the country as we roll into Christmas week.

We continue to track some snow chances before we even get into next week. The first one is on track for late tonight and Thursday. This may put down some light accumulations across the western half of the state with a touch of sleet and freezing rain trying to get in the mix. That action diminishes the farther east it gets, but should cause some flakes to fly for many.

The Friday night and Saturday storm system looks about the same as it has for the past few days. It’s a weaker storm because some of that energy is shooting out ahead of it and giving us the flakes threat on Thursday.

The NAM shows a stripe of winter weather…


Remember when I kept saying we had a much better chance of this thing going well to our south and it cutting to the lakes like the GFS had? The weaker the low, the farther south it stays.

The Christmas week setup is now getting a lot of attention from forecasters across the country. A huge buckle in the jet stream could create a bomb of a storm system across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes on Christmas Eve.

Euro 2Check out the look from the European for next Wednesday morning…

Euro 3 That’s pretty darn wicked. Here’s a little more in depth look at what the same model run shows…


That’s a week away and that’s an eternity in the world of weather. Still, that’s pretty darn wild to see anytime of the year, especially around Christmas.

I will have another update later tonight. Enjoy the evening and take care.