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A Week Of Summer Weather

Good Sunday, everyone. Our weather for the first weekend in May is about as good as it gets across the bluegrass state. Heck… this is about as good as it gets for any time of the year. The nice stuff is going to be sticking around for a while as our pattern goes straight into one that looks and feels the part of summer.

Is this a sign of a fast and furious start to summer? The latest CFS suggests the rest of May is warmer than normal around here…

CFS

The same model run then reverses that trend for the first half of June…

CFS 2

The rainfall forecast from the CFS through the middle of June basically shows what one would expect with the wet year we have going…

CFS 3

I’m working on the summer forecast for WKYT and will have it out here in another week or so. A strengthening 2nd year El Nino and the impact it will have on our weather is the focus of that forecast.

One thing is for sure… Summer is coming early this week. Highs will be in the 80-85 degree range on most days with only small chances for storms going up. Enjoy!

Take care.

 

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Summer Comes Early

Good Saturday and Happy Kentucky Derby Day. Gorgeous weather is showing up out there today and that’s making for a perfect Run For The Roses. If you’re a fan of this… just wait until you see what I have in store for you next week. We’re going straight into summer!

Highs today will range from around 70 in the east to the low and mid 70s across central and western parts of the region. Skies will stay partly sunny with a few clouds building during the afternoon. Those clouds aren’t likely to spit out anything, but the leading edge of warm air is on top of us and that can sometimes spawn a popcorn shower.

Sunday starts a run of even warmer air as our highs surge into the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. The pattern for next week looks more like something you would see in late summer…

Euro

That’s a deep trough across the west coast… a heat ridge from the Gulf into the Ohio Valley… and a potential tropical system off the southeastern seaboard. That doesn’t really scream May, does it?

The possible tropical system shows up well on most models later next week…

Euro 2

We shall see what happens with that, but it may be a signal for some close to home development for the upcoming season.

While that’s developing across the southeastern coastline… our temps surge. Mid and upper 80s will be possible…

GFS TEMPS 1

As I said… it’s straight into Summer. Enjoy.

Happy Derby Day and take care.

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A Good Looking Kentucky Derby Weekend

Good Friday and welcome to Kentucky Derby Weekend. Our weather continues to look good as the eyes of the world focus on the bluegrass state. Temps will continue to rise as we hang on to a mostly dry sky. This warm up is just the beginning… Next week will feature a taste of summer.

Highs on this Kentucky Oaks Day will hit the mid and upper 60s in the east with low 70s showing up across the west. Some clouds will be noted early, but we should see more of a mix of sun and clouds in the afternoon.

Derby Day looks good with partly sunny skies and temps in the 70-75 degree range for much of the state. Enjoy.

The pattern for next week is a very warm one for our part of the world…

GFS 3

That type of setup is usually good for temps hitting the low and middle 80s. Some pockets of even warmer air may try to show up. Increasing amounts of humidity will increase as the week wears on. That leads to the threat for scattered showers and thunderstorms, but the bulk of the storms may hang to our west. Here’s the GFS rainfall forecast through next week…

GFS

The corridor of storms is then likely to shift farther eastward and back into our region. If we expand the GFS rain forecast out to 2 weeks, you can see what I’m talking about…

GFS 2Have a great day and take care.

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A Summer Preview Ahead

Good Thursday, everyone. We have a rather ugly day going on across central and eastern parts of the state, but that’s about to change. As we head into Kentucky Derby weekend, things are about to heat up. As a matter of fact, next week is going to feel a lot like the early part of Summer.

Let’s get the ugly out of the way.

Highs today will hit the mid and upper 60s in the west, but may struggle to get much past 60 for the rest of the state. Winds will be very gusty as showers work across the region. Some rumbles of thunder will also be possible.

The upper level system responsible for the ugly stuff will scoot to our east on Friday. The day could start with low clouds in the east, but a mix of sun and clouds should rule the day for many. Highs range from the low and mid 60s east to the low 70s west.

Things look pretty good if you’re heading out to Churchill Downs for the Oaks and The Derby. Highs for Derby Day will surge into the 70s…

GFS TEMPS 1

As I mentioned yesterday, there is still the smallest chance for a popup shower or storm Saturday afternoon and evening.

Sunday will find temps heading closer to 80 with a small chance for a shower or thunderstorm. This sets the stage for temps to surge well into the 80s for next week as our flow comes straight from the south and southwest…

GFSThe subtropical low off the southeast kinda blocks the pattern up and keeps us on the very warm side of things. The big dip in the jet stream across the west will try to throw some thunderstorms our way on occasion. Eventually… that’s a severe weather pattern.

Have a great day and take care.

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Shower Chances Return

Good Wednesday, folks. Part of the region may get in on a shower or two out there today, but the greater risk returns for Thursday. That’s when we find one last ugly looking system before much better weather rolls in for the big weekend ahead.

A southern storm system looks to throw a few clouds our way today and may bring a shower into the south and southeast. Temps should generally run in the 60s with a mix of sun and clouds for many.

A potent upper level system will dive in from the northwest on Thursday. That’s a system that looks more like something from the wintertime…

NAM

This means scattered showers and gusty winds will be common. A rumble of thunder and some small hail will be possible in that type of setup. Temps will continue to run on the much colder than normal side of things…

Euro 3Kentucky Oaks Day looks much better with a mix of sun and clouds and temps in the 60s. Kentucky Derby Saturday will feature breezy weather with mostly sunny skies and temps hitting the low 70s. I must admit, there is the smallest chance for a stray shower or storm late in the day or evening. Most of that looks to stay to our west.

The threat for scattered storms will increase as temps spike from Sunday into next week. 80 degrees or better should be common on many days. Storm chances will be there too…

Euro 2

Have a great day and take care.

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Warmer Changes Showing Up

Good Tuesday, everyone. Here’s hoping this finds you enjoying life to the fullest. We’ve had a lot of ugly weather over the past few months and a little more ugly is showing up later this week. That said… this pattern is ready to flip on a dime to a very warm one as we head into May.

Let’s start with today and roll forward. Patchy frost and 30s will start things out with partly sunny skies and temps in the 60s finish things off. A few clouds will roll in late today and those clouds will produce the threat of a few showers on Wednesday. That’s coming from a big storm system across the deep south…

Euro

The best chance of Wednesday showers will be across the south and east. Areas with showers and clouds will stay under 60. For those with a hint of some sun, 60s will be common.

That system then slowly works up the east coast on Thursday. As that happens, a strong upper level disturbance dives in behind it across the Ohio Valley. This winter looking storm will then spawn chilly rains around here…

Euro 2

Middle 50s for highs on Thursday will be possible for some areas. Ouch!

Much better weather rolls in for Kentucky Oaks Day with some sunshine and temps in the mid and high 60s. Derby day looks AWESOME with highs in the 70s and a mostly sunny sky.

We may hit 80 degrees or better starting Sunday into early next week. Temps may head deep into the 80s later in the week. Unfortunately, the pattern I see setting up is likely to be a very stormy one. Frequent rounds of boomers look to be common for the first half of May. That should up the ante on severe weather around here.

The latest GFS 2 week rainfall forecast is loaded with juice for much of the country…

GFS RainEnjoy your day and take care.

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Cool Temps Hang Around

Good Monday to one and all. We’ve had quite the run of colder than normal temperatures for the past week and change. This looks to continue through the rest of the week before the pattern flips to warm over Kentucky Derby weekend. That’s a warm pattern that may dominate much of May.

We continue to flirt with the potential for frost this morning and again Tuesday morning. Lows will drop into the low and middle 30s for the coldest valleys.

Afternoon temps on this Monday will only recover into the upper 50s and low 60s for many. Similar temps will be noted for Tuesday as some clouds roll into town. Those clouds are ahead of a southern, slow-moving storm that works up the east coast. That should come close enough to throw some rain our way Wednesday into Thursday…

GFS

That keeps temps on the very cool side of things and may even allow for one more morning in the upper 30s on Friday.

That should then set us up with a breezy and sunny Kentucky Oaks Day. The European Model idea of a slower warm up is likely the correct way to go. The GFS has now come way down with high temps for Oaks…

GFS Temps

Kentucky Derby Day finds the warmer air really beginning to surge in…

GFS Temps 2

That is likely to begin a very warm first week of May across much of the country…

GFS Temps 3

Yes, Please!

Enjoy your Monday and take care.

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Another Round Of Frost Possible

Good Sunday, everyone. A cold front is pushing to our east today and that’s taking the showers and thunderstorms with it. Much colder than normal air is pushing back into the region and that’s likely to set the stage for more frost. There is some hope in the longer range as our pattern turns milder for Kentucky Derby Weekend.

Morning showers quickly work to our east as skies become partly sunny. Temps will be rather cool with upper 50s and low 60s for highs with breezy conditions.

Temps over the next couple of mornings will drop deep into the 30s and could bottom out around the freezing mark for some…

GFS Temps 3

Green thumbs… you know the drill.

Highs will continue to range from the upper 50s and low 60s through the middle of the week. That’s when a few showers will be possible as a slow moving storm moves out of the Gulf of Mexico and up the east coast…

Euro

That will then slowly move away in time for Derby weekend. The GFS turns things warm…

Oaks Day

GFS Temps

Derby Day

GFS Temps 2

The European isn’t as quick with the warm temps, but all of the models suggest dry times.

Enjoy your Sunday and take care.

 

 

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Tornado Watch Western Kentucky

Good afternoon, gang. The atmosphere is in the process of cranking up across western Kentucky and that means storms are ready to pop. Supercell thunderstorms will develop through the rest of the afternoon and roll eastward. These storms will produce very large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes.

A TORNADO WATCH is now our for western parts of the state through 8pm CDT.

The greatest severe weather threat across the rest of the state continues to be along and south of Interstate 64. Expect additional watches to be issued for these areas later today into this evening.

Here are the tracking tools you need…

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

I will have updates as needed and be sure to follow my @kentuckyweather twitter feed for the latest.

Take care.

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Severe Weather Tracker

Good Saturday, everyone. Rounds of thunderstorms will rumble across the bluegrass state today and some of these could be strong or severe. Heavy rains will also accompany the storms, with the potential for some local high water issues.

General run of the mill showers and storms will be around for the first half of the day as a warm front slides through the state. This front will only get so far to the north before slowing down as low pressure sweeps in from the west. Areas along and south of that front and track of the low will have the best threat for severe storms.

Damaging winds, very large hail and a few tornadoes will be possible later this afternoon into the evening. That’s especially true for areas that break out into some sunshine and see thermometers climb into the upper 60s and 70s.

Speaking of temperatures… a 30 degree or greater temperature gradient is likely to be noted across the state today.

As usual, I have all your tracking toys…

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

I will have updates as needed. Take care.

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