Category Archives: Uncategorized

Rain, Rain and More Rain

Good Saturday, everyone. The overall forecast for the next several days is pretty simple and straightforward… Rain. A series of systems work from southwest to northeast across the region through Tuesday. This means waves of rain, heavy at times, working across the region.

From today through Tuesday of next week,, the models continue to point toward a general 1″-3″ rainfall across much of the state…

Euro 2

I’ve noticed the totals continue to come in higher across the south and east. Part of that is because of the wave of low pressure coming late Monday into Tuesday.

This same overall storm system has produced significant ice in the plains states to go along with the heavy rains around here.  It’s a system I first gave you a heads up on 10 days ago with this map…

Special 2

I did think we would get colder air involved in this system, but from 10 days out… I will take it.

I keep checking the CFS Ensembles snowfall forecast into early January. They continue to show lighter snow potential through the middle of December with a big ramp up later December into early January…


Again, the majority of that falls later in that 45 day window and would certainly match my winter forecast thoughts on this being a back loaded winter.

I leave you with your radars for the day…

I will have another update later today. Enjoy the rain and take care.

Leave a comment

Holiday Weekend Thoughts

Good Friday, everyone. Our looooong Thanksgiving holiday weekend rolls on with rain moving into the region. This rain really settles in over the next few days and should carry us into early next week.

I have a bit of a turkey hangover, so I’m going to keep this update rather brief. I will get you a longer update later in the day.

Clouds increase today with rain arriving in western Kentucky. That rain shield is slower getting to central and eastern Kentucky and that means another mainly dry and mild day.

Saturday and Sunday look soggy with waves of rain working in from the southwest…


The threat for rain carries us into Monday and Tuesday with a general 1″-3″ rainfall by then. Colder weather follows that up with a few more systems trying to skirt by to our south and east. Depending on the available cold air, some wintry weather would be possible.

Speaking of winter weather. For fun, the CFS Ensembles snowfall forecasts over the next 45 days…


Two sets of the Ensembles are very excited about snows around here through early January. The other two… Not so much. Don’t worry, those change from run to run and I don’t expect the best snows until after that time period. 😉

I leave you with your radars to track the nasty weather to our west…

See you later today for an update. Take care.


Rainy Weather On The Way

Good Thursday and Happy Thanksgiving. As I’ve said many times before… You guys are like a family to me and I’m so thankful you allow me to do what I love to do each and every day. :)

The weather on this big day is absolutely awesome with a mix of sun and clouds, mild temps and gusty winds. Enjoy!

Rain is on the way later Friday as we go into a very wet period across our region. The showers move into western Kentucky early in the day then slowly work eastward into Friday evening. The drops may not reach eastern Kentucky until early Saturday morning.

Waves of rain then come at us this weekend into early next week. Heavy downpours will be likely and rainfall totals will really be up there. A general 1″-3″ rain is likely with higher amounts possible in the west…


We will have to keep a close eye on that as there is a ton of juice available.

After that, we see the potential for several systems to try and amplify across our region and into the east. Depending on the amount of cold air available, these could be winter weather producers…




I will try to update again today. Have a wonderful Thanksgiving and take care.


Wednesday Evening Update

Happy Thanksgiving Eve! Travelers are getting in on some great weather for the rest of tonight and into Thanksgiving. All that goes downhill this weekend and early next week as rounds of rain move in.

The models are still spitting out a general 1″-3″ across the state during this time…

EuroColder air wraps in behind the final wave of low pressure late Tuesday into Wednesday…

Euro 2That could produce a few flakes in doing so.

There is still a good signal for another big storm late next week into the following weekend…

CanadianSafe travels and take care!

1 Comment

Planes, Trains and Automobiles

Good Wednesday and happy turkey travels. Today is the busiest travel day of the year and it’s also the day we pay tribute to one of my all time favorite movies… Planes, Trains and Automobiles. We’ve been doing this for many years now and it’s a true blog tradition. This movie is a classic for your friendly weatherdude and I highly recommend checking it out.

Nice weather rolls on out there today and into Thanksgiving Day. Enjoy it because it goes downhill quickly from west to east on Black Friday. That rain will become heavy at times by Friday night and then we get into waves of rain over the rest of the weekend. There’s even a tropical connection to a Pacific system…


That moisture then crosses Mexico into Texas and then winds up into our region this weekend and early next week. This would be the second time in the past month or so that moisture from  an eastern Pacific hurricane worked into our region. That’s actually pretty incredible.

Back to the weekend and the rain train that rolls through here…

Euro 2With temps in the 40s, that’s a cold rain in our part of the world. Heavy rain numbers are a good bet during this time.

Another, more pronounced system then works in here for Monday and Tuesday…

Euro 32″-4″ of rain may fall from this Friday through next Tuesday. Something for us to watch closely in the days ahead.

Much colder air sweeps in behind this system with the possibility of some snowflakes showing up. Another system will then swing in here from the southwest later next week with the threat of rain or snow.

I’ve shown you maps on just how warm all the oceans are right now. I wonder if that’s contributing to the insane rain numbers across the oceans over the next few weeks. Check this out…


Again, that’s something else that has an incredible look to it.

I leave you with one of the classic scenes from my beloved Planes, Trains and Automobiles…

I will have another update later today. Take care.


Tuesday Evening Update

Good evening, gang. I have no changes to my thoughts on where this pattern goes into the coming holiday weekend. We see the nice weather rolling through Thanksgiving Day, then the rain moves in. Once that happens, it may stick around a while.

To illustrate what a pipeline of juice we have setting up from southwest to northeast, look at this future radar from the NAM late Friday…

NAMThat’s an incredible moisture plume setting up shop and may tap some tropical Pacific moisture. A late season system down there may get caught up in the overall flow and throw moisture our way. Check out the European tries to pull some of that moisture from the Mexican coast through Texas and into our region…

Euro Heavy rainfall numbers need to be watched closely during this time. Enjoy the evening and take care.


Thanksgiving Weekend Changes Ahead

Good Tuesday, everyone. We have some very nice weather rolling our way over the next few days. That’s certainly something for early holiday travelers to be thankful for. Give thanks now, because things turn wet as we head into Black Friday and that becomes a trend into early next week.

I’m still putting the finishing touched on my winter forecast (Yes, I am STILL doing homework on it), so I’m not going to get too wordy in this update. That winter forecast airs tonight at 6 on WKYT-TV. Shameless plug.

Rain rolls in from west to east Friday and then hangs around into early Saturday. We may catch a break at some point this weekend before another system rolls in from the southwest. The flow from this thing comes straight from the southwest…


The end result on the GFS is a lot of rain from the Mississippi Valley into our region…

GFS Temps 2

The latest run from the European Model is much worse than that. It shows wave after wave of low pressure working from southwest to northeast across our region into the middle of next week. That puts down a ton of rain…

Euro 5

I got to looking at the upper air charts on this model run and kept thinking… now, where have I seen this look before?

The answer was the first week of December 1978 (Geek alert… I research old patterns in my spare time.). Take a look at the similarities…

Euro 4

The December 1978 scenario gave us a major flood event. I’m not saying that’s happening this go around, but it’s interesting to see a model run look so similar to that exact setup and the exact same time of year. Just something to watch.

I had noticed 1978 popping up frequently on the medium range analog list over the past few weeks. Interestingly enough, the overall progression of that winter isn’t too dissimilar to what I will show you in the winter forecast later today.

The weekly long range European Ensembles run is out and takes us through Christmas Eve. Here’s what it shows for the average temps from now through then…



Euro 3

And snowfall…

Euro 2

My real takeaway from that is it shows a very active pattern through December.

So much for me keeping this update short. The things I do for you people!

I will update things later today. Take care.


Monday Evening Update

Good evening, folks. I wanted to drop by for a quick update on where the pattern goes later this week into next. Things turn much more active during this time and that will impact holiday weekend travel. A cold front moves in later Friday and early Saturday with heavy rains moving in… GFSTemps really chill down on Saturday as our front slams the brakes on. Low pressure then swings our way from the southwest late in the weekend and early next week… GFS 2How that works exactly remains to be seen, but the potential is there for more heavy rain and some wintry weather. Speaking of heavy rains, the GFS shows that well… GFS RainEnjoy the evening and take care.


Tracking Your Turkey Week Weather

Good Monday, everyone. Thanksgiving week is here and that means we are just a few days away from the famous Planes, Trains and Automobiles post. We’re also now a day away from my winter forecast on WKYT-TV. It’s been bumped up to Tuesday evening at 6pm.

The weather this week is off and running on a cold, but nice start. The nice isn’t going to last as a storm system impacts our long Thanksgiving holiday weekend.

Rain develops to our west Thanksgiving Day and rolls in here for Black Friday as colder air settles in from the north and northwest. The showers carry us into Saturday as things turn downright chilly with the potential for a flake mixing in…


The showers should taper off some Saturday night as we wait and see what happens with the energy rolling in from the southwest. That big upper level system may pivot right on top of us early next week…


That setup, if it verifies, would bring another big push of rain and winter weather into this region…


The European Model takes a more southern route with that system and shows more of a winter weather threat…


Euro 2

As I mentioned before, the models are playing catch up to the signals showing up as we close November and enter December. The -EPO and +PNA are usually a good tandem to get winter weather around here and across the eastern part of the country. We shall see.

I will hook you up with another update later today. Enjoy your Monday and take care.


Sunday Evening Update

Good evening, gang. We’re wrapping up a wintry day across much of the bluegrass state. Several areas picked up a rooftop covering of snow this morning with flurries lingering into the afternoon. After cold night ahead, things look better for the early part of the big Thanksgiving travel period. The last half is going to be a different story.

It continues to look like heavy rain arriving in time for Black Friday shoppers. That slow moving system keeps rains going into Saturday as temps drop with a front moving in and slowing down. This is a moisture rich system with heavy rains from the Mississippi River Valley into the Ohio Valley…

Canadian 3

My last update looked at the possibility of big piece of upper level energy cutting off in the west then rolling our way early the following week. That still looks like a real possibility…

Canadian 2

That’s a strong upper level system showing up. The Canadian Model has this look at the surface…


One could extrapolate that southern low then working up the east coast.

The European Model has a similar upper level system, but has a slightly different look at the surface…


With a lot of players on the field, expect a lot of model changes in the days ahead. Enjoy the rest of your evening and take care.

1 Comment