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Tracking Changes For Next Week

Good Thursday, folks. The steam and scattered storms continue to rule the weather world across the commonwealth of Kentucky. This setup looks to take us into the coming weekend, but changes are showing up for next week.

There’s no reason to focus too much on what we have right now… you already know the drill. Tropical temps with scattered storms increasing a bit.

The changes for next week show up with a couple different systems. The first is a cold front that slowly moves our way by Tuesday and Wednesday. That increases the threat for showers and storms…

EuroTemps will come down during this time as a broad trough digs into the region…

GFS 3A more potent system tries to dig in behind that by late next week into the following weekend. The GFS Ensembles have been all over this for a while and they continue to show a fairly deep trough…

GFS 4The GFS has shown this on several runs and now the European Model is sniffing it out…

Euro 3 Euro 2A system like that could be a pretty good rainmaker for the Ohio Valley as MUCH cooler air surges in behind that.

Let’s track today’s action…

 

 

Have a great day and take care.

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Scattered Storm Chances Ahead

Good Wednesday to one and all.  The “skewing warmer” pattern I’ve been talking about for the past several weeks is doing some work across the commonwealth. Late summer is bringing the steam as humidity levels continue to climb. This increase in juice should also give us a better chance for scattered storms in the coming days.

Temps from today through Friday should be similar to what we had out there on Tuesday. Scattered storms will likely increase a bit and that could impact the numbers. Any storm that goes up during this time can put down some locally heavy rains.

Labor Day Weekend will see a bit of a decrease in temps with a few more clouds and scattered storms around. It’s still very warm and humid, but maybe not as toasty as we are now.

A cold front makes a run at us early next week, but the models all differ on how to handle this. The GFS, believe it or not, has shown the best run to run consistency with this thing over the past several days. It brings the front in here later Tuesday and Wednesday…

GFSThat allows a wave of low pressure to develop along the boundary with an increase in showers and storms later in the week. That develops on a healthy temperature gradient along the boundary…

GFS 3Is that model correct? The European Model doesn’t think so and keeps the front to our north. Should be an interesting early fall model fight after a summer in which both models weren’t very good.

The GFS continues to point toward a bigger push of cool by the middle of the month…

GFS 2That’s a very busy setup on the model over the next few weeks and leads to a lot of rain across the country…

GFS RainThat would certainly have a good chance of verifying if these cool shots are real. The CFS certainly thinks they are. Check out the 10 day temp departures for the middle of September…

CFSI leave you with your storm trackers…

 

 

Have a great day and take care.

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September Starts Steamy

Good Tuesday, everyone. The new month is off and running on a very steamy note and that’s a sign of things to come. Temps take a walk on the very warm side and we will see a daily threat for a shower or thunderstorm. Basically, it’s a typical late summer setup for the next week.

August wrapped up cooler than normal across the entire region, and many areas came in drier than normal. Take a look at the numbers for the month…

Radar rain 1As you can see, there were still a lot of pockets of above normal rainfall, but a lot of areas were drier for a change. This is welcomed news after the record rains of June and July… We really needed to dry things out and we’ve done that.

Even with the drier than normal August, the year to date is a soaker…

Radar rain 2One thing I’m watching for as we head into fall is the potential for an increase in fall forest fires. We have a tremendous amount of growth in the forests from all the rainfall, and we turn drier for a while, watch out.

The actual weather around here through Labor Day doesn’t really change. Steamy temps with a scattered storm or two. A cold front moves in early next week, and that’s something to watch for.

It’s also the time of the year the GFS likes to really show major cold shots in the longer range…

GFS 2While the depth and the timing of these shots are many times fantasy land stuff, the model does usually show these as an indication of where the overall pattern is going.

I leave you with your radars to track any isolated stuff out there today…

 

 

Have a great day and take care.

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Tracking The Early September Pattern

Good Monday, everyone. August is running out of hours and we’re just about ready to say a hearty hello to the 9th month of the year. Summer temps and scattered storms will be the rule for the first week of September, but cooler changes are already showing up.

The weather from today through the upcoming Labor Day Weekend won’t feature a whole lotta change. Steamy temps with a daily chance for scattered storms will highlight the daily forecast. Yawn.

A cold front approaches the region from the northwest on Labor Day and could move through here next Tuesday…

GFS

Pleasant air will likely follow that front into the middle of next week. It’s during that time that we find the Canadian Model with some serious chill across the high plains and northern Rockies…

Canadian

The recent trend on the medium range models is for a series of fronts to sweep through here around the middle of the month. For fun, the GFS long range shows a healthy cold shot building in southern Canada in 2 weeks…

GFS Temps

I only show that because it matches what the latest CFS is showing around the same time. After a warm start to September, check out the 10 day temperature anomalies that follow on the model…

CFS

September, of course, is a transition month from Summer to Autumn. For weather purposes, we find the jet stream wavelengths slowly starting to change. This generally means changes to the overall pattern may not be signaled to far in advance. Just food for thought.

I leave you with your manic Monday tracking tools…

 

 

Have a great day and take care.

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Steam and Scattered Storms

Good Sunday, everyone. August is just about ready to give way to September and our weather pattern is finally looking and acting the part. After one major fall fling, we have steamy temps and scattered storms taking center stage in the coming days. But, for how long? I will dive into that in just a bit.

In the near-term, a disturbance works northward into the region today. This means an increase in scattered showers and storms compared to what we had Saturday. With the increase in clouds and boomers, temps will come in a few degrees cooler, too.

The week ahead will be dominated by a daily threat for a scattered shower or storm and temps on the toasty side. This is a seasonal brand of  warm air, but with a pretty good surge in humidity. The real deal heat looks to stay west and north of our region…

Euro 2

It’s interesting to watch the trend of the current pattern because it pretty much fits the script of the past two years at this same time. Hmmm.

The steam and scattered storm threat should take us through the Labor Day weekend. Beyond that, changes start to show up on many of the medium range models. Look at the cool shots lining up on the European just after Labor Day…

Euro 3

The Canadian Model also develops a trough over the region during the same time…

Canadian

The GFS Ensembles are also strongly hinting at a fairly deep trough developing around the same time…

GFS Temps

The more things change… 😉

What’s left of Erika is still heading toward Florida, but it has a serious struggle if it wants to redevelop into something.

Let’s track the storms firing up in our neck of the woods…

 

 

Have a great Sunday and take care.

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Scattered storms return

Good Saturday and welcome to the final weekend of August. Temps and humidity levels are on the rise and this will lead to an increase in scattered showers and storms. This warm and humid setup should carry us into much of next week as we watch to see what, if anything, happens with Erika.

Low and middle 80s should be common out there today with the threat for some scattered boomers.

A better threat for showers and storms will be with us Sunday as a disturbance lifts northward into the region from the Tennessee Valley. The NAM simulated radar shows this progression…

NAMThe increase in clouds and rain will keep temps several degrees lower from what we see today.

That tropical pattern continues into much of the week ahead. A daily threat for scattered showers and storms will be around with seasonally warm temps. The real heat will be well to the west and north of the Bluegrass state…

GFSThat trough across the deep south hangs around for much of the week and keeps things rather unsettled around here. What happens with Erika? The model forecasts and NHC forecasts have been less than stellar. Here’s the latest from the folks in Miami…

I will update any potential impact that may have on our weather with my next update.

Let’s track whatever is out there today…

 

 

Have a great day and take care.

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Scattered Storm Threat Increasing

Good Friday to one and all. We have one more absolutely gorgeous fall weather day in the works before changes move in for the weekend. These changes mean an increase in showers and thunderstorm chances as our pattern begins to warm. The tropics are also alive and well and I take a look at that. Plus, we take a longer look into the fall.

Highs today will be in the upper 70s to around 80 across much of central and eastern Kentucky. Low 80s will be in the west with a mix of sun and clouds. There is the smallest chance for a popup storm in the far southeast this evening.

Saturday will see moisture and temps increasing with the threat for a scattered shower or thunderstorm. The storm threat really ramps up on Sunday as we see a hint of a tropical connection showing up. Juice increases from the south and southeast as Erika approaches Florida. You can see this on the NAM…

NAMThat connection shows up a littler better on the European Model…

EuroThe weather for next week depends on what happens with Erika and the models continue to be all over the place. This system heads toward Florida later this weekend and then we will see where it goes from there. Here’s the latest from the Tropical Prediction Center…

Looking deeper into fall with the CFS shows our warmer start to September, but some chilly changes later in the month and into October. These maps are 10 day increments…

CFS CFS 2 CFS 3 CFS 4I’m telling you, this is going to be a bear of a fall and winter forecast. No true analog years to what’s going on right now means I have my work cut out for me. I’m ready to rumble… let’s roll! :)

Have a great Friday and take care.

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A Little Bit of Action Ahead

Good Thursday to one and all. We continue to see gorgeous fall weather across our part of the world. To say this is as good as it gets during August would be an understatement. Heck, this would be awesome for late September! Speaking of our 9th month of the year, it’s just around the corner and I am tracking some changes to start things off.

Highs today will be back into the mid and upper 70s for much of the region. Sunny morning skies will see some clouds fill in during the afternoon hours.

Friday looks similar with just a small spike in temps compared to today. Still, things look great.

Moisture starts to increase over the weekend and that could cause a shower or thunderstorm to go up. The best chance appears to be on Sunday…

GFSTemps will warm back into the lower 80s for much of the region. Humidity levels will come up as well.

From there, it’s all about what happens with Tropical Storm Erika. The models continue to come up with different solutions with each run., but are targeting anywhere from Florida to the Carolinas for a possible hit. The Canadian model…

Canadian

The GFS is similar, but a little slower and farther west…

GFS

There’s still a lot of time to watch and see what happens with this storm, and if it will have any direct impact on our weather here in Kentucky. Something to think about… Tropical systems can impact the behavior of the overall pattern across the United States. Some of the overnight model runs aren’t looking as warm into the first half of September with how they play Erika.

Here’s the latest 5 day track from the Tropical Prediction Center…

Have a great day and take care.

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Changes Show Up Next Week

Good Wednesday, folks. Our fall weather pattern keeps on delivering the goods across the commonwealth of Kentucky. The nice temps are also bringing a lot of dry weather, and that’s more than okay after the soggy summer we’re coming out of.

This is also the time of year we start to watch the tropics to see what’s cooking. We have Tropical Storm Erika out in the atlantic and the models are having a tough time, as usual, figuring out what to do with it.

The latest track from the Tropical Prediction Center takes this storm toward the Bahamas and strengthens it into a hurricane…

If the storms stays on the southern edge of the forecast cone, it could have a tough go at it because of the interaction with land/mountains. A lot of the straight tropical forecasting models take Erika on a track similar to what the TPC shows.

Some of the latest “regular” computer model runs try to take a weakened system into the Gulf of Mexico late this weekend or early next week. The Canadian Model, which loves to ramp up tropical systems, has the most ominous look…

CanadianAs you can see, that run brings what’s left of the system into the bluegrass state.

The European Model also has this in the eastern Gulf, but isn’t as strong…

EuroOverall, the pattern has a warmer look to it as we close in on Labor Day weekend and through much of September. Let’s see if that look actually becomes reality.

Have a great day and take care.

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Our Fall Week Rolls On

Good Tuesday, everyone. Our fall week of weather continues across the entire region, and three’s really not a lot more I can say about it. Just relax and enjoy it. Trying to figure out where we go from is in the focus of the forecast as September is just around the corner. Wait… September is almost here? Time flies!

The deep trough delivering the cool air of this week will split and leave a piece across the south. This happens as another small piece of energy dives in here this weekend and early next week…

GFS

That’s not as cool as where we are now, but it’s also a look that isn’t totally warm, either. That flow can also throw some clouds and scattered showers and storms in here. You can see the plume of juice extending from the Gulf into our region…

Euro

Again, that’s from this weekend into early next week. Some of the models are also hinting at some tropical development in the eastern Gulf during this time. Just something to watch as we are at that time of the year.

Looking ahead to September, the CFS continues to indicate temps skewing warmer…

CFS

The latest run also shows wet weather returning…

CFS 2

I admit, I’m torn with how I want to play September and October. We’re in unchartered territory when it comes to this El Nino and the rest of the Pacific Ocean temp profile. Don’t let anyone else tell you differently! 😉

Have a great day and take care.

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