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Friday Evening Update

Good evening, folks. We’re putting the wraps on an absolutely frigid Friday in the bluegrass state. It’s a day that started out near zero for many and could only hit the low and mid 20s for afternoon highs. That’s less than HALF of our normal high of 50 degrees.

The final day of the month will start with single digits… again. It’s a fitting day to wrap up one of the coldest and snowiest Februaries on record!

March rolls in like a lion on Sunday with the first of 3 active weather systems to impact our region. A wintry mix and rain will push in early in the day and continue through Monday as temps oscillate. The Canadian and European Models show the areas with the best chance at picking up on the wintry stuff…

Canadian

Canadian

European

Euro

The system that follows that up will bring much more of a heavy rain threat with some thunder possible Tuesday into Wednesday. The models are backing away from the heavy rain just a bit, but we will still have to watch for enough to cause some high water problems.

Another arctic front swing in late Wednesday into Thursday with a wave of low pressure along it. A HUGE temp drop is likely in just a matter of hours and that’s when we may see a decent shot of winter weather. Watch the increase in the winter precipitation forecast on the same models from above…

Canadian

Canadian 2

European

Euro 2

Take those maps with a grain of salt from this far out. I’m just showing them to illustrate the potential winter weather aspect as we go through next week.

Arctic air will follow up whatever we end up getting. If we can put down additional snow and ice accumulations like the European Model is showing, then temps can get out of control again…

Euro 3

Happy first week of March!

Enjoy the rest of your day and take care.

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A Messy Start To March Ahead

Good Friday, everyone. Our frigid February is just about to come to and end and it’s all eyes on the month of March. It’s a month that is usually a very fickle month and probably my least favorite weather month of the entire year. The first week of March will illustrate why I think that way as we have some ugly, ugly stuff ahead.

Thermometers starting out our Friday will be near zero in the far north and in the low teens across the south. Highs today range from the upper teens north to mid 20s south. Yippee!

Saturday will start out with… wait for it… wait for it… some single digits! Afternoon temps hit the mid 20s in the north to the low 30s in the west and south. At least we have a little bit of sunshine. :)

A super duper busy pattern then takes shape to usher in the 3rd month of the year. Our first system arrives Sunday and continues into Monday and should bring a wintry mix and rain. Watch the back and forth transition on the GFS…

GFSThat’s just ugly and a setup that will feature oscillating temperatures from north to south.

The Canadian Model is colder and has more frozen precipitation during this time…

Canadian

The next storm system rolls in later Tuesday and Wednesday and has much more of a heavy rain threat with it. The action may start out as a mix in the north on Tuesday, but gusty winds will blow a brief spike in temperatures into our region. Some thunder will be possible, but the greatest threat will be from the heavy rain.

Another storm system is likely to form on a VERY strong cold front moving in here later Wednesday and early Thursday. The GFS has been showing this very well for several runs in a row…

GFS 2

GFS Snow

The Canadian Model is also picking up on that to a lesser extent…

Canadian 2

Early this week I said next week had a lot of possibilities and you are seeing that now playing out on the computer forecast models. Let’s just sit back and see where we go. Personally, I’m cheering on sunny and 80. Oh wait… that’s not an option.

I will update things later today. Make it a great Friday and take care.

 

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Flakes Ushering In Arctic Air

Good evening, folks. Thanks for dropping by the blog on what has been the busiest month in KWC history. The server I pay for laughs at your millions of page views! :)

A band of light snow and flurries continues to push in on the leading edge of arctic air. Some light accumulations will be possible as temps drop quickly into the teens…

Wind chills will drop into the single digits during the evening and go well below zero for some tonight. Actual lows will range from near zero in the north to the low teens in the south and southeast.

It’s cold Friday and Saturday. ‘Nuff Said.

A light mix and rain moves in with our first system Sunday into Monday. Temps will oscillate during this time as a front remains draped across the region.

Heavy rain and wind will accompany a bigger system on Tuesday and early Wednesday. That one could cause some high water issues.

Another system tries to develop along another arctic boundary late Wednesday into Thursday. This one may take on much more of a wintry look…

GFS

Check out the blast of cold air coming behind that bad boy…

GFS 2

I would call those temperatures solidly below normal!

I’ve been trying to hit the fact that next week will feature a lot of precipitation. Our waterways are full and we have snow still to melt, so we will need to watch the high water potential. The latest numbers from the GFS…

GFS Rain Have a great day and take care.

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Thursday Afternoon Thoughts

Good afternoon, gang. Our sideswipe snow put down hit and run accumulations across southeastern Kentucky last night and early this morning. Up to 5″ fell in areas along the Virginia border counties. The rest of our day will be dominated by some snow showers and flurries as arctic air filters back in.

Temps tonight will head back toward the single digits for some and  we can expect something similar for Saturday morning. Highs Friday will be in the upper teens and low 20s on a day when 50ish is normal. Think about that one and give this weather the proper appreciation.

The busy pattern cranks back up Saturday night into Sunday morning as moisture returns from the west and southwest. A wintry mix will be possible during this time…

GFS

That sets the stage for a mix and rain from Sunday into Monday as the first system works eastward across the region.

The next low is going to try to work just to our west and north and deliver us a brief spike in temperatures for Tuesday and early Wednesday. Heavy rain, gusty winds and thunder will be possible during this time.

Winter quickly returns later Wednesday and Thursday as arctic air pushes back in from the north. There is some indication that another area of low pressure develops along this to our south and east…

GFS 2

That could make things rather interesting around here and into the Ohio Valley as our temps plummet.

Spring lovers (and that includes myself), look away…

CFS

That’s the Weatherbell CFS temp departure between now and April 12. But, I thought true spring was supposed to arrive next week? Isn’t that what we’re being told? ;)

Have a great day and take care.

27 Comments

Tracking Another Wintry Day

Good Thursday, everyone. Snow is working quickly across southeastern Kentucky to begin the day. This is part of the big southern snowstorm that’s just grazing the state with accumulating snows. Arctic air is pouring in behind this storm and will be with us to close out the month of February.

Snow showers and flurries will fly around the state today as the arctic air moves in. Temps will drop into the 20s, but gusty winds will make it feel much colder than that. Temps by Friday morning will range from the single digits in the north to the teens in the south.

Friday is a cold day with upper teens to low 20s for highs in parts of the region. That’s just absurd for this time of year.

Our weekend starts cold and ends ugly. Saturday should start with a few single digits with 20s during the afternoon as clouds increase. Those clouds are ahead of a very active and ugly setup from Sunday through the first week of March.

A wintry mix is possible on Sunday as the precipitation moves in…

GFS

From there, a couple of systems will impact our region through the middle of next week. These will roll right across the region and each could bring some interesting weather. A temp spike is possible ahead of each of them with heavy rain and thunder. Temps then drop behind each of them with some wintry mix. Regardless… the second half of the week features the return of very cold air…

GFS Temps

Nothing says spring like below freezing temps all the way into the Gulf of Mexico! ;)

Let’s do some winter weather tracking to start the day…

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road

 

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

Mountain Parkway near Slade

US 23 at 119

US 119: KY 1679 @ US 119 Pine Mt Road

I-75 at MP 36
London
I-75 @ MP 36

I-75 at MP 23
Corbin

I-75 @ MP 23

I-65 MP 36
Near Bowling Green
I-65 MP 36

I-65 @ 234
Near Bowling Green
I-65 @ 234

Updates will come later today. Take care.

33 Comments

Wednesday Evening Update

Good evening, gang. Our southern winter storm continues to crank and will deliver a glancing blow of snow across southern and eastern Kentucky. I will get you all set to track that here in just a bit.

I want to touch briefly on the setup from late Sunday through next week. I mentioned the models would try to trend colder and farther south with the overall setup during this time and that’s what we’ve been seeing. To illustrate that point, check out frozen precipitation forecast from the European Model.

Here’s the run from last night…

Euro 2Notice how the swath of snow and frozen stuff was well into the Great Lakes over the next week. Now check out the run from this morning…

EuroThat’s a big shift to the south with the heaviest action and now gets it all the way south of the Ohio River.

All of that comes with a series of systems rolling across the region. Some may roll right on top of us with mainly rain and a brief temp spike. Some might roll just to our south with more of a wintry flavor. The point I’m trying to make is… there is NOTHING “springy” about that look!

Let’s get you all set to track the action moving into the south and east…

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road

 

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

Mountain Parkway near Slade

US 23 at 119

US 119: KY 1679 @ US 119 Pine Mt Road

I-75 at MP 36
London
I-75 @ MP 36

I-75 at MP 23
Corbin

I-75 @ MP 23

I-65 MP 36
Near Bowling Green
I-65 MP 36

I-65 @ 234
Near Bowling Green
I-65 @ 234

Enjoy the evening and take care.

19 Comments

Tracking Another Round Of Light Snow

Good afternoon, folks. We’re in the middle of another much colder than normal day here in the bluegrass state with upper 20s and low 30s for many (I think most of us forget the normal high is now around 50 degrees). With the cold comes another shot of light snow across the south and east.

I don’t have any changes to the overall setup and placement of where most of the light snow falls. Here’s a look…

SPECIAL

A Winter Weather Advisory is now out for parts of this area…

That system zips through quickly overnight and is replaced by snow showers and flurries for all on Thursday. That’s as another shot of arctic air moves in for Friday and Saturday.

The pattern after this looks super active and is trending colder from Sunday through next week. Beware anyone talking about anything resembling “spring” during this time. Forecast the actual weather and the pattern instead of regurgitating what the computer models say. Isn’t that how it should be done? ;)

Watch for more of a winter look to show up on the models in the coming days. Everything from snow and a wintry mix to heavy rain and thunder will all be possible.

Let’s get back to track-a-lacking what we have out there this afternoon…

 

Another update comes your way this evening. Take care.

53 Comments

A Glancing Blow Of Snow

Good Wednesday, everyone. A southern snowstorm will throw a glancing blow of snow into parts of the bluegrass state tonight and early Thursday. This means southern and eastern Kentucky will have the best chance of adding to those crazy high February snow totals.

The storm to our south will shutdown areas from northern Louisiana through Mississippi, Alabama Georgia and into the Carolinas. This harsh winter period is leaving very few areas untouched.

The aforementioned track will mean a very sharp cutoff to the light snows in the bluegrass state. Here’s my current thinking…

SPECIAL 2

That could change later today as we see just how far north this system looks to roll. The Virginia border counties look to have the best shot at picking up on a few inches. If you’re on the northern edge of the snow map… don’t get your hopes up. ;)

Arctic air comes in behind that later Thursday with a system that will likely deliver snow showers and flurries to much of the state. Minor accumulations will be possible from all that. Temps by Friday morning look to drop back into the single digits for many…

GFSHighs Friday afternoon may not get out of the upper teens across the northern half of the state. Single digit lows show back up for the final day of February on Saturday. It’s going to be interesting to see just how cold cities and the state wind up for the month. All combined, this will be one of the coldest and snowiest on record.

Next week looks to be super active with snow, thunderstorms, high winds, heavy rain and a wintry mix all possible. Hello, March!

I will update things later today. Here are some early day tracking tools to tide you over until then…

Take care.

28 Comments

Tuesday Evening Thoughts

Good evening, gang. I wanted to drop by for a quick update on the wicked winter weather that continues around here and for much of the country. Our Wednesday night snow system continues to look to deliver a glancing blow of snow to Kentucky.

This is a major snow maker for areas of the south and southeast. Here’s my First Call For Snowfall across the state…

SPECIAL 2

I’m really watching the pattern from late this weekend into next week. This is a VERY ugly setup across our part of the world. I suspect the models will trend colder as we get closer, but the possibilities are endless.

Snow, wintry mix, heavy rain and thunder will all be possible during this time. The forecast models are going crazy with the amount of precipitation they are spitting out over the next 10 days…

GFS

GFS Rain

European Model

EuroThere is nothing good that can come from the setup I’m seeing. Nothing!

Enjoy the evening and take care.

32 Comments

Wednesday Night Snow Chances Increase

Good Tuesday afternoon, folks. Parts of southeastern Kentucky picked up a fresh blanket of snow overnight into this morning from a system that ended up farther north than the models had. Shocked? The next storm system arriving late Wednesday continues to trend farther north and that trend may continue.

The latest SREF (the average of 22 different computer model runs) shows quite a bit of precipitation working into the state…

SREF

That would bring snow all the way north to the Ohio River with decent totals showing up across eastern and southern Kentucky.

Here’s a look at my first “odds” map…

Special 2

There is an increasing possibility of some areas in the south and east getting 4″ or more of snow. That could force me to pull the trigger on a Winter Storm Threat for parts of the region later today.

Can we get this to keep trending north and give much of the state another hefty snow? I guess we shall soon find out.

Another update comes your way later today and I will have the very latest on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm. See you then.

Take care.

78 Comments