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Tracking More Cool Weather

Good Tuesday, everyone. I said last week that I didn’t think this was a true start to fall here in Kentucky. Mother nature is trying to make a liar out of me (like that would be the first time). Additional shots of chill look to carry us through most of the rest of September.

We do have a cold front on the move across the state today. This is bringing a scattering of showers to the region and is ushering in a reinforcing shot of cool temps. Temps today are going to struggle into the mid and upper 60s for highs into central and eastern Kentucky. Upper 60s to low 70s will be around for the rest of the area.

Current Temperatures

The weather from Wednesday through Friday looks awesome! Highs will range from the upper 60s to low 70s with overnight temps dropping into the 40s. Watch for some foggy mornings.

Saturday looks windy and warmer with temps well into the 70s. Take advantage of that because another cold front arrives Sunday with showers and some thunder. This carries us into Monday as temps take a dive behind the front. The European Model is going crazy with the cold coming in behind this system…

Euro 3That particular model run takes temps into the “crazy below normal” temperature category…

Euro 2I suspect the European Model is overdoing the extent of the cold, but the pattern does favor another run of colder than normal temperatures.

Enjoy your extended fall weather and take care.

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Cool Shots Continue This Week

Good Monday, everyone. A lot of people complain that fall is just too short around this part of the world. Well, mother nature may be trying to lengthen the season this year. We have additional shots of cool air on tap this week. I break those down and take a look at where some things stand as we head deeper into fall and winter.

Today will be the mildest day of the week with temps in the 70s and winds picking up a bit. You will notice some clouds rolling in late in the day from west to east. Those clouds are ahead of a cold front that moves through overnight into early Tuesday. That front can spit out a few showers.

Highs Tuesday will be back in the upper 60s for many areas as cooler winds blow in. That should set the stage for another night of 40s for lows…

NAM The cool air continues to funnel into the region from the north and even northeast. This is when a huge blast of chill moves across the Great Lakes into the northeast…

EuroThose setups can feature sneaky cold that the models don’t really pick up on. Heck, the models were awful with our weekend temps. That’s why I tell young forecasters to stop regurgitation what a model says. Look at actual weather maps and what the weather is doing verses what the models say. End of mini-rant. :)

Temps should rebound some by next weekend as more normal air moves in. There is now some indication of another cool shot coming down the pike early next week.

Let’s talk a little fall and winter.

I keep talking and talking about how the overall weather pattern in North America hasn’t really changed much since last fall. That’s when I started picking up on this big warm pool of water of water off the west coast into the Gulf Of Alaska. That forced a huge ridge of high pressure up the west coast into Alaska.

Guess what? That warm pool is still going strong and is forecast to remain there through the upcoming winter…

SSTThrow in a developing weak El Nino and you have the potential for some serious winter weather across the country again this year.

This is also the time of year I start watching the developing snow pack across the northern hemisphere. It’s still very, very early in that game, but it’s above normal for this time of year. This map shows the areas that usually don’t have snow on the ground right now…

Snow CoverWe will have to wait and see how this progresses through October. That’s the month that really matters in the overall development of the snow pack.

Have a great Monday and take care.

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The cool weather rolls on

Good Sunday, everyone. Our recent blast of October temps will moderate just a bit in the coming days, but the numbers will still be much cooler than normal. The week ahead weather is pretty clear cut, but what happens after that is still a bit fuzzy to me. Let’s get into it.

Readings this morning will likely be the coldest we’ve had since back in the spring. Many areas should wake up to readings in the 40s and a few spots could drop all the way into the lower 40s. That, at least, puts us within shouting distance of a few records. Areas that see clouds will obviously be several degrees higher than those with clear skies.

Today’s Lows

Skies will feature a mix of sun and clouds today with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s…

Current Temperatures

Monday will find a milder wind blowing with thermometers returning to the 70s. Clouds will increase and a shower may develop late in the day from west to east. A better chance for scattered showers arrives Monday night and Tuesday. That’s when another front works across the state…

NAM Temps will come back down behind that front with upper 60s to low 70s for highs a good bet into the middle of the week.

The setup by Thursday should feature a huge shot of cold weather coming into the Great Lakes and northeast. That throws some more cooler air our way and could drop those temps just a tad more. Throw in a developing storm across the southeast and we could get a little windy, too…

EuroThis super cool pattern is likely to give way to a more normal brand of September air late next weekend or into the following week. I don’t think we are done with 80 degree temps, by any means.

That said… I continue to keep a close eye on the Gulf of Mexico. One of my top analog years featured something there in late September and the GFS keeps showing something there in the day 10 time period…

GFSOf course, it IS the GFS! Plus, it’s just a thought I’m throwing out there as having a chance at happening. This has been another quiet tropical year, so that certainly doesn’t bode well for that “chance”.

What about the chances for cold and snow this winter? I plan on talking about that with my next update. ;)

Have a great day and take care.

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October Temps Continue

Good Saturday, folks. Our blast of October temperatures rolls on across Kentucky and this looks to settle in for the next week or so. One has to keep in mind, normal highs are in the upper 70s to low 80s for this time of year and we aren’t even close to that.

Highs today will likely stay in the 60s for most of the region. Clouds are going to be awfully tough to break and a scattered shower will still be possible.

Current Temperatures

The skies will try to clear up later tonight into Sunday and that means our temps will likely reach the lowest numbers since the spring. The NAM is forecasting some low to mid 40s by Sunday morning…

NAM 2 A closer inspection shows some upper 30s showing up just north of the Ohio River…

NAM 3Those numbers could put some spots within a few degrees of record lows. Again… we would need clear skies for temps to get that low.

Sunday afternoon looks awesome with upper 60s to low 70s for highs.

Winds will pick up on Monday as another system works in from the west. A shower or two may develop and carry us into Tuesday. This will unleash another much cooler than normal air mass across our region and much of the eastern part of the country…

GFS 3Highs for the middle and latter parts of the week should be back in the upper 60s to low 70s with lows dropping back into the 40s.

Am I the only one loving this kind of weather?

Make it a great day and take care.

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A “Pot Of Chili” ALERT

Pot Of Chili

Good Friday, everyone. The blog has upgraded to a full blown “Pot Of Chili ALERT” for Kentucky. Grocery stores will be packed with people picking up their favorite ingredients. Prepare NOW. :)

It is a nice blast of October temps settling in for the next several days. Unfortunately, our sky could be a whole lot better. We will continue to see a fair amount of clouds and the chance for a shower or two.

That will be the case out there today with temps struggling to get out of the 60s in many areas. Some low 70s will be possible for any area getting in on some breaks in the clouds.

Current Temperatures

A similar setup will be with us on Saturday before more a little more in the way of sunshine takes control for our Sunday. That’s when morning lows could drop into the mid and upper 40s. Again… we would need clear skies for that to happen.

Another system rolls in later Monday into the middle of the week with another chance for showers. That keeps our temps cooler than normal for the rest of the week. After that… we start to see the pattern letting up a bit with the cool weather.

I’ve mentioned for a while on how we need to watch the Gulf later in September for something brewing.  We could get something down there in the next few days. The GFS has another system by next weekend…

GFS

The European Model looks very similar…

EuroAs always… time will tell.

Have a great day making chili and take care.

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Tracking Heavy Rain and Fall Temps

Good Thursday, folks. A powerhouse of a cold front is rolling across Kentucky and is bringing some big time weather changes. Showers and thunderstorms continue to be ahead of this front, but the blast of fall is making headlines behind it.

Let’s start with the shower and thunderstorm threat and roll from there. Heavy rainfall is a good bet and this is likely to cause some local high water issues. Drier and cooler air moves in from west to east later today into tonight. I’ll have your tracking tools in a bit.

I have made some changes to your Friday forecast. The shower maker I have been hawking for Saturday may arrive a little earlier than I thought. That means scattered showers could be around on Friday…

GFS

That could keep temps down into the middle 60s for areas with full clouds and showers. The threat for showers would hang around into a part of our Saturday. Highs should range from the upper 60s to low 70s.

Sunday looks good with similar temps with a mix of sun and clouds. Lows to start the day will likely be in the 40s and we could be there again on Monday.

Another system could bring a few showers our way late Monday into Tuesday. This ushers in a reinforcing shot of below normal temps for the middle of the week…

Euro 2

This cooler than normal pattern should take us through all of next week.

I promised you some winter weather talk and I am a weatherdude of my word… most of the time. :) One of the things I look at when making a winter forecast is the water temperatures of the Pacific and Atlantic. They are HUGE drivers of the overall weather pattern across North America. There is a model that looks at the water temps and finds similar years and then spits out a forecast based on that data. Here’s what it shows for the fall and winter temps…CFSKeep in mind… there is a lot more that goes into the mix. But, it does show how the oceans are signalling colder than normal temps.

Back to the weather of today…

Current Temperatures

Current Temperatures

Have a great day and take care.

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Storms Usher In A Fall Blast

Good Wednesday, everyone. A powerhouse of a cold front is rolling toward the bluegrass state and will bring a huge change to our weather. A blast of fall air is on tap for late for the weekend into much of next week. Things may get a little bumpy ahead of the front as storms rumble through the region.

Winds will crank and temps will soar into the 80s today. We could see a stray shower or thunderstorm going up, but most of the action will hold off until later tonight and Thursday. This is when a squall line of thunderstorms works in from the northwest. The highest threat for severe weather is just to our west and north, but we need to keep a watch on that setup. Showers and storms will continue into Thursday with the potential for some heavy rain numbers.

Track away…

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

A cooler wind will blow behind the front from west to east late Thursday. That sets the stage for a cooler Friday with a mix of sun and clouds.

We’ve touched on the chill down for the weekend and I have no changes in that. Highs will range from the upper 60s to low 70s with lows dropping into the 40s.

I’ve also touched on the chance for showers and I’m trying to time these threats a little better. The first one arrives on Saturday…

EuroThe next system may have a little more juice with it as it arrives early next week…

Euro 2

Overall, this is a fall pattern settling in and it’s one that’s a few weeks ahead of schedule.

Some winter talk is on the way with tomorrow’s post. Spread the word.

Enjoy your day and take care.

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Big Changes Working In

Good Tuesday, everyone. September is a month of change as we make the transition from summer into fall. Change is exactly what we have rolling our way in the coming days as the first real fall cold front arrives. That brings the threat for booming storms and the coolest air since spring.

The weather out there today will be a little warmer than the niceness of the past few days. Highs will hit the upper 70s to low 80s for many areas. I can’t rule out a few showers or thunderstorms, but most look to stay dry. Any storm that goes up is more likely in the east and southeast and could contain heavy rain. Stop me if you’ve head that one before.

Current Temperatures

Our cold front begins to work our way by Wednesday night and Thursday. It’s likely to spawn severe weather to our north and west on Wednesday and we will need to keep a close eye on that. We could get a squall line of thunderstorms rolling in at some point.

The actual front blows through later Thursday…

NAM

Temps behind this front will tumble with upper 60s to low 70s for highs on Friday. A weak disturbance could bring a shower or two our way on Saturday. If we get some clouds and shower… high temps could be even cooler than the upper 60s I’m looking at.

Upper 60s to low 70s look common Sunday and Monday. Any clear night will see temps bottom out in the low to middle 40s.

This is a very cool pattern for much of the country that hangs tough through next week…

GFS 2 GFS 3Make it a great day and take care.

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A “Pot Of Chili” Watch For The Weekend

Good Mondayto one and all. Early fall is in the air, but we are likely to see a much bigger push of cool temps late this week into the coming weekend. It will bring a little taste of October our way and that’s why the blog is issuing a one of a kind watch…

Pot Of ChiliThe cool temps of fall usually lead to me eating a lot of chili, so the watch is certainly appropriate. If I feel more confident in the coming days… I will upgrade to Alert status. :)

More on that in a moment. We have some showers and storms to keep a close eye on today. The setup will favor much of the action across eastern and southeastern Ky, but a few could slip a little farther west. Some of these storms could drop a lot of rain in a short amount of time and that could lead to some high water issues.

A big blast of fall chill is moving into the country over the next few days. The cold front introducing the chill will move toward Kentucky by Thursday…

 

GFSShowers and thunderstorms will be a good bet and we could see a few strong storms as the front pushes in. These kinds of fronts usually bring gusty winds as they blow through.

That system is likely to put down some snow across the Rockies into the northern plains. Check out the areas getting snow on the GFS over the next week…

GFS 5

Temps coming in behind the front will be well below normal for much of the country this week. The core of the cool works into our region by the weekend into next week…

GFS 3Highs over the weekend will generally range from the mid 60s to low 70s across the state. Lows will hit the 40s and could drop toward the low 40s for some areas…

GFS 2

 

A reinforcing shot of cool air is likely to move in behind another storm system into the first part of next week…

GFS 4Again… I still don’t think this is a true start to full-time fall weather.

Make it a great day and take care.

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Tracking Big Changes For The Week Ahead

Good Sunday, everyone. Much better weather is in store for the region today and this is likely just a little preview of what’s coming our way. I’m tracking a big blast of fall temperatures coming by the end of the week into next weekend. That is likely to be the coolest air we’ve had since back in spring.

Today will feature partly sunny skies across most of the region. I say most because leftover moisture may fire up a scattered shower or thunderstorm in the south and southeast. Highs today will should stay in the 70s for a lot of folks.

Current Temperatures

Temps by Monday morning will be on the cool side with low and middle 50s showing up. The rest of the day will feature a mix of sun and clouds with the threat for a shower or storm in the east and southeast. Highs will hit the upper 70s and low 80s.

We will see a better chance for scattered storms around later Tuesday into Wednesday as temps spike back into the 80s.

That will set the stage for a powerhouse storm system to develop across the plains and work into the Great Lakes. Snow is likely on the backside of this system with strong and severe storms ahead of it. That’s something we will have to watch for by Thursday.

The air coming in behind that bad boy is VERY impressive for this early in fall…

Euro 3 That really is a massive area of high pressure coming in for the weekend. That has the potential to bring record lows from the Rockies all the way into our region and even into the northeast.

Can you handle highs in the 60s on the second weekend of September? That’s how things are looking right now…

EuroThe cooler than normal weather is likely to stick around into the following week. I don’t think this is a true early start to full blown autumn, though. I do think this is a warning shot from our pattern. Maybe I should call it a reminder shot, instead, because it’s reminding us how little the overall pattern has changed since last fall.

Enjoy your Sunday and take care.

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