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Watching The Flash Flood Threat

Good Thursday, everyone. We are tracking an increased threat for flash flooding across much of the bluegrass state over the next couple of days. A weak boundary is draped across the region with areas of low pressure moving along it. That likely spells trouble with additional heavy rain producing showers and storms.

Here’s a breakdown:

– Thunderstorm action will really increase today as we get waves of boomers rolling through. A few storms could be strong or severe with damaging winds and hail the primary concerns.

– These showers and storms will be prolific rain producers and can drop a few inches in just an hour or two. That could cause some quick rises on creeks and streams.

– Rounds of storms will continue to push across the region through tonight and into Friday. All tolled, many areas will likely pick up anywhere from 1″-4″ of rain during this time.

– The potential is there for some extreme flash flooding on a local scale.

– The threat for showers and storms will hang around into the coming 4th of July weekend. That could threaten to washout some parades and fireworks.

I have you all set to follow today’s flash flood threat and storm potential…

 

 

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

Have a great day and take care.

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Storms and Heavy Rains Continue

Good Wednesday, everyone. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will keep on doing their thing over the next several days. We’re pretty much locked into a very stormy setup that is likely to include too much rainfall before all is said and done. This isn’t the ideal forecast heading into the 4th of July weekend.

The threat for scattered showers and storms will be with us again today. Just like before, a few of the boomers could be on the strong side.

Showers and storms may increase in coverage and rainfall intensity Thursday into Friday. That’s with a disturbance rolling eastward across our region. That could put down enough rains to cause some local high water issues.

The systems will keep zipping through here this 4th of July weekend and into early next week. Rainfall numbers from the computer models continue to be very impressive.

The European…

Euro

What amounts to the composite rainfall average from the HPC comes up with this over the next week…

WPC

No matter how you slice it, this is a very active storm pattern that will throw a lot of rain our way High water issues are a very real possibility in the coming days.

Temps stay below normal through the weekend with highs potentially staying in the 70s for a few days. After a small spike in thermometers early next week, look out below!

Euro 2Another deep trough is likely to dig in across the central and eastern parts of the country. That means temps may go back to being solidly below normal for a while.

I said this would be a summer of frequent cold front! 😉

Your daily dose of tracking toys…

 

 

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

Have a great day and take care.

11 Comments

The Stormy Pattern Rolls On

Good Tuesday, everyone. Rounds of showers and storms have been common over the past few weeks and that pattern shows little sign of changing. With the stormy setup comes a continuation of the cooler than normal weather we’ve been seeing of late.

Today’s weather will feature another system diving in from the northwest. Just like Monday, storms will develop as the day wears on and some could be strong or severe. These storms will also be capable of putting down a ton of rain that can lead to localized stream and street flooding.

Storms will continue to target the lower Ohio Valley into the Tennessee Valley over the next several days. The latest 7 day rainfall forecast from the WPC…

WPC

Exact totals will depend on, of course, where the strongest storms set up. Regardless, that shows the potential for too much rain for some areas over the next week.

With the storm chance comes more below normal temps. Here are the highs from the European Model…

Euro

 

Normal highs should be in the mid and upper 80s across the entire region. Temps may get back toward normal for a few days into early next week. That probably won’t hang around long as odds favor another deep trough digging into the eastern part of the country my mid week. The European Model…

Euro 2Your daily dose of storm tracking tools…

 

 

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

Have a great Tuesday and take care.

12 Comments

Another Stormy Week Begins

Good Monday, everyone. June is quickly running out of days and we are just about ready to flip the calendar to July. June has given us a lot of rain and storms with some areas approaching top 10 wet status. It’s only appropriate for the month to end with some storms, and for July to start the same way. The potential is also there for too much rain to fall during the next week.

A system continues to dive in here from the northwest today into Tuesday. Rounds of showers and storms will be possible during this time and a few of the storms could produce hail and damaging winds. I will have your tracking tools in a bit.

These disturbances keep rolling into our region from the northwest later this week. Check out the clusters of storms as these systems move in from Wednesday through Friday…

Euro 2Heavy rainfall is a likelihood in this type of pattern with the potential for local high water issues to develop. The new NAM certainly has the look. Check out the rainfall forecast just through Wednesday night…

NAM

Scattered storms may be around as we celebrate Independence Day. As far as temps go… Readings should continue to average below normal through the week. The GFS suggests the 4th is a little below normal…

GFSTemps may spike a bit toward toasty readings for a few days after that, but the cooler than normal look may kick back in shortly thereafter…

GFS Temps 2I leave you with all you need to track today’s storms…

 

 

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

Have a great day and take care.

6 Comments

Storms Set To Return

Good Sunday, folks. Today is shaping up to be one the best days of the entire year across the bluegrass state. My advice to you is to get out and enjoy it because rounds of storms are about to return. This is all part of the wet pattern we’ve slipped back into over the past few weeks.

Let’s begin with the good stuff that is the weather of today. Highs will run in the mid and upper 70s for many areas with an occasional 80 in the far west and south. Skies will stay mainly sunny with some high clouds increasing during the afternoon and evening.

Those clouds are ahead of a system diving in from the northwest that will bring showers and storms our way for Monday and Tuesday… NAM 2A few of those storms could be strong. Highs will generally run from the upper 70s to low 80s on both days.

The pattern for the second half of the week will feature the heat across the western part of the country and a trough continuing in the east. That could lead to more rounds of showers and storms for our region into the 4th of July weekend…

EuroThe potential remains for a lot of rain to fall across our region over the next week and change. As a matter of fact, the overall setup continues to favor an active storm pattern for much of the summer.

Make it a great Sunday and take care.

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The Cooler Weather Arrives

Good Saturday and welcome to the final weekend of June. Thunderstorms from the past few days have caused quite a few issues across the state. That action is finally moving away and is being replaced by a much cooler brand of air. Rejoice!

Highs today will generally run in the 70s, but could drop into the upper 60s for a time. Check out the strong northwesterly wind flow setting up behind our departing low…

NAM

That same flow will likely mean some scattered showers continuing into the afternoon and early evening. A few storms may still fire up early today across the east and southeast. Maybe even a strong storm or two?

Sunday starts very cool with low and middle 50s for many…

NAM 2

Afternoon highs will be in the mid and upper 70s with mostly sunny skies. Low humidity levels will help make this one of the nicest days of the year.

That nice stuff won’t last long as another system dives in from the northwest on Monday. Rounds of showers and storms will be possible…

NAM 3 That action will likely could hang around into Tuesday with highs into the upper 70s and low 80s.

Normal to below normal temps should carry us through the rest of the week and into the 4th of July weekend. That doesn’t mean all is fine and dandy… Rounds of showers and thunderstorms just won’t go away…

GFS

The threat for more heavy rainfall? At this point… we might as well just keep it coming. Not that we have a say in the matter. 😉

In the meantime, let’s track a rather late September-like day out there…

Have a great day and take care.

7 Comments

Severe Weather Threat Continues

Good Friday, everyone. Strong and severe storms rumbled across the bluegrass state Thursday and more of the same can be expected today. If anything, the severe weather threat looks to be even greater later today into the evening.

A developing storm system will roll across the region from west to east through tonight and Saturday. This is a potent storm that doesn’t look like something you see during the summer months. Rounds of showers and storms will be common ahead of this system today.

As the area of low pressure deepens later in the day, expect the threat for severe storms to rapidly increase across the entire region. The Storm Prediction Center highlights our region for the greatest chances for severe weather…

SPC

As you can see, damaging winds will continue to be the main threat we have to be on guard for. If we can get some storms to go up on their own ahead of the main cluster this evening, a tornado or two can’t be ruled out. Just like Thursday, showers and storms from early in the day will have a lot to say about how that transpires.

Much of the region is also under a Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning. We’ve had a lot of rain over the past few weeks and additional totals of 1″-3″ will be possible for some areas. That could cause additional flash flooding concerns.

These storms will also be prolific lightning producers!

The heaviest rains will end early Saturday with windy, cool and showery weather taking over. Temps fall into the 60s for much of the day.

Sunday looks great with sun and 70s for highs after low 50s start the day.

Next week is likely to see additional systems diving in from the northwest, bringing additional heavy rain and storm threats. Temperatures will continue to average below normal through the week and into the 4th of July weekend.

I leave you with your daily dose of severe weather tracking tools…

 

 

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

Have a great day and take care.

18 Comments

Tracking The Severe Storms Threat

Good Thursday, everyone. Our very active period of weather continues to throw the potential for severe storms our way. That risk looks to possible ramp up later today as storms dive in from the northwest. Additional rounds of strong or severe storms may follow that to start the weekend.

The setup for today is one that can produce a damaging wind event across the Ohio Valley and into the bluegrass state. Here’s a rundown of how things may progress:

– A dying band of thunderstorms may work into the northern areas of the state early this morning.

– This system may leave enough clouds around central and eastern Kentucky to keep some areas from seeing the heat really kick in. Might want to take the under on some high temp forecasts in these areas.

– A line of storms will then develop north of the Ohio River during the afternoon and race in here from the north and northwest. The prime time for this line looks to be between 5pm and midnight.

– Damaging winds will be the primary player as far as threats go. Large hail and isolated tornadoes will also be possible. How widespread this gets may depend a lot on what happens with this morning’s storms.

– The late day storms should also be prolific lightning and rain producers. That rain can cause some local flash flooding.

Things continue to look active into Friday and Saturday as low pressure works into the region from the west and southwest. I’m becoming more concerned about the severe weather threat ahead of this system by late Friday into early Saturday. That setup could also be a flash flood producer as a lot of rain looks to fall across our region.

Temps behind this departing low may drop into the 60s by Saturday afternoon. Sunday looks pleasantly cool with temps in the 70s for highs and just a small shower chance.

Showers and storms will then kick back in early next week as several systems dive in from the northwest. That setup keeps temps normal or below normal. This same setup may actually carry us through the 4th of July weekend.

Moral of the story… this is a stormy pattern with a lot more rain on the way!

Today is a WKYT First Alert Severe Weather Day so be sure to tune in for continuing severe weather coverage as needed.

I leave you with your severe weather trackers…

 

 

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

Have a great day and take care.

21 Comments

Active Weather Days Ahead

Good Wednesday, folks. Some areas are getting in on a breath of fresh air today with cooler temps and lower humidity levels. The oppressive stuff moves back in quickly for Thursday and sets the stage for some big storms. These storms may increase into the start of the weekend as we await the arrival of a much cooler pattern.

With a front just to our south, temps will come down into the low and mid 80s for highs into parts of central and eastern Kentucky. Humidity levels will be much, much cooler. The same can’t be said for the west and far south. There is still a small chance for a shower or storm, but most areas look to be in decent shape.

As I sated last week, Thursday has the chance to give us the hottest weather of the entire summer. Low to mid 90s will be possible if we keep the sunshine. Heat index values of 100-105 may be common. Our saving grace could be the gusty winds.

Strong to severe storms would then be possible late in the day into Thursday night. Thunderstorm clusters will dive in from the northwest and these could be damaging wind producers.

SPC

Friday into Saturday continue to look very active as low pressure moves across the area…

Canadian

Heavy rainfall and additional strong storms would be possible ahead of that type of system. Much cooler air then spreads in from the northwest. Highs from Sunday into early next week may not get out of the 70s for many areas.

Another system would then dive in by the middle of next week and could deliver more heavy rains. The European Model continues to advertise some big rain amounts from these two systems…

EuroAs usual, I have you all set to track whatever weather we have going up out there today…

 

 

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

Have a great day and take care.

7 Comments

Storming Into A BIG Pattern Change

Good Tuesday, everyone. Steam and storms have been the theme of the past few weeks and continues to be the flavor of this week. The steam part is about to get kicked out of here in a big, big way. June looks to end how it started… cooler than normal, and that carries us into July.

In the short term, we have to be on guard for possible strong and severe storms today. A weak cold front is moving in from the northwest and will have a lot of tropical air to work with. That means any storm that goes up could produce damaging winds and produce a lot of rain and lightning. I will get to your tracking toys in a bit.

Wednesday may find slightly cooler and less humid conditions across the region… Especially central and east. A storm or two will still be possible.

Thursday into Thursday night could be very active across our part of the world. Temps Thursday afternoon could reach the low and mid 90s with the humidity levels making it feel much hotter. Winds will be very also be rather gusty. All of this may set the stage for rounds of thunderstorms to move in from the northwest. This setup can produce a derecho somewhere across the Ohio Valley. This period has my attention.

My attention is also focused on the potential for quite a bit of rain Friday into Saturday. A slow moving system will work right on top of the region with widespread showers and storms possible…

Euro

Heavy rain and thunderstorms could become widespread during that time. Another system pushes in from the northwest a few days later. The European rainfall numbers over the next week suggest the potential for some additional high water issues…

Euro 3

The Canadian Model ups the ante even more…

Canadian

Those showers and storms are ahead of a winter looking dip in the jet stream that takes place this weekend into next week. Check out the view by Sunday…

Canadian That trough continues to dig in as we roll through next week… Euro 2What does that mean for our actual weather? How about the possibility of several days in the 70s for highs and 50s for lows. A rainy day could even give some areas 60s for highs.

Let’s track today’s severe threat…

 

 

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

Make it a great day and take care.

6 Comments