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Time posted: 1:07 am

Here Comes The Chill

Good Tuesday, everyone. Some ugly weather is rolling into the region over the next few days, and this will send our temps into the well below normal range. This chill in the air has been on our radar for the past few weeks, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise to regular readers. :)

Let’s begin with today and trudge ahead.

Highs will generally run in the 60s with some isolated showers and thunderstorms going up. This action will really pick up the pace as we roll into Wednesday as a strong cold front dives in from the north. Winds will be very gusty and these storm could contain some small hail. Afternoon readings may drop into the 50s as the chilly air surges in.

This is ugly through Thursday…


Euro 2

Additional showers may be with us Thursday afternoon. Lows to start the day are cold for early May…


Maybe a touch of frost?

Afternoon temps may REALLY struggle for many…


As it stands now, the upper low moves away from the region for Oaks Day and Derby Day. If it works that way, conditions will be much, much better. Derby Day temps may really take off…


While that is great and all, there is a weak front dropping in from the north that can bring some late day showers and thunderstorms…


We really need to be on guard over the next few weeks for a burst of severe weather across our region. The signs are there for multiple events from the plains into the Ohio Valley.

I leave you with your daily dose of radars…

Enjoy the day and take care.

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Time posted: 1:39 am

Our Busy Pattern Continues

Good Monday to one and all. Our weather pattern has been a very busy over the past week and this pattern rolls into Kentucky Derby Week. Additional rounds of showers and storms will be joined by cooler than normal temperatures in the coming days. There is even the chance for some frost before the week is over.

Today’s focus of the forecast is on a southern stream system bringing some showers and storms to central and eastern Kentucky. The best chance for this action is across southeastern Kentucky, where heavy rain is a real threat. This could lead to additional high water issues in this area.

Track away…

Once this moves away, it’s game on for a significant upper level system to drop in from the northwest late Tuesday. This cuts off across the region with unsettled weather through Friday…


As that dives in, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few strong thunderstorms. Once it gets in here, we will see a daily threat for a shower of small hail producing thunderstorm through Friday. At night skies can clear, allowing temps to really drop. There’s the chance for some mid and upper 30s by the end of the week with a kiss of frost possible.

The latest model forecasts allow that upper system to slip off to our east by Kentucky Derby Saturday, but it’s a close call. The latest European Model then lets another front drop in from the north by Saturday night and Sunday. That has some additional showers and storms…

Euro 2

Enjoy your Monday and take care.


Time posted: 1:39 am

Some Ugly Weather To Start May

Good Sunday, folks. Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are marching across the state to begin the month of May. This bumpy first day is indicative of how the first week of the new month looks to be. That doesn’t bode well for all the festivities for Derby week.

Today’s showers and storms will continue to come at us in waves. Heavy rains may cause some local high water issues, and some strong or local severe storms will be possible. The tracking toys in a bit.

MUCH cooler air moves in for Monday as a new storm system begins to impact our region from the southwest. This should bring another round of rain and thunder from later Monday into Tuesday. The NAM…


Once again, heavy rains will be possible from this system. Highs Monday may hit 70 before the storms move in, but may struggle to get out of the 50s by Tuesday.

From there, it’s more ugly moving in from a HUGE upper level low cutting off across the region. Here’s the look Wednesday and Thursday…


That’s from the European and it’s nasty! That same model run keeps that system very close to us to start Derby Weekend…

Euro 2

Here’s hoping that continues to take a wobble toward the east, allowing for some better weather to blow in.

Temps this week are kinda ugly. Check out the below normal numbers…

GFS Temps

Your Sunday Storm Trackers…

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current Watches
Current Watches

Possible Watch Areas
Current MDs

Enjoy your Sunday and take care.


Time posted: 2:15 am

Tracking The Severe Storms Threat

Good Saturday to one and all. We have rounds of showers and thunderstorms rumbling across the state this weekend and some could be severe. This continues to be part of the stormy pattern that is ready to lead us into a MUCH cooler Kentucky Derby week. As we get into the week, things are looking more and more unsettled.

Let’s start with today’s storms and roll forward. We have an increasing threat for lines of strong to severe storms to develop and sweep eastward across the state. Damaging winds, large hail and isolated tornadoes will be possible. The best chance comes later this afternoon into the evening.

I will have your storm tracking toys in a bit.

Additional storms will rumble through tonight and Sunday, and some of those could also be strong. Heavy rainfall is a good bet during this time with local high water issues possible.

Much cooler air works in for Monday with highs only in the low 60s. A southern system tries to bring some rain back in here for Tuesday…


That’s followed up by a very ugly setup for the second half of the week. One that threatens to hang into the start of Kentucky Derby Weekend. A big push of chilly air dives into the eastern part of the county with a slow moving cutoff low forming around us. The GFS shows some nasty and chilly weather from late Wednesday through Saturday…


The European Model also develops a huge cutoff low on top of the region with a big storm off the east coast…


That’s some very chilly air showing up with temps well below normal…

Euro 2

The same run of the European Model keeps this upper level low JUST to our east for Kentucky Derby Saturday…

Euro 3

That is remarkably good agreement among the GFS and European Models, and shows EXACTLY what the Ensembles have been hinting at for the past week or so. This also fits the pattern I’ve been talking about for the past few weeks… A very stormy and wet setup leading us into a cool start to May.

Let’s get back to tracking today’s storm threat…

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current Watches
Current Watches

Possible Watch Areas
Current MDs

I’ll shoot you an update later today. Make it a great day and take care.


Time posted: 1:01 am

More Storms For The Weekend

Good Friday, folks. We have an absolutely gorgeous weather day across the region today. My advice to you is to get out and enjoy it… Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are ready to blow back into the bluegrass state over the weekend.

Highs today will run from the low 70s in the northeast to near 80 in the south and far west. Skies will stay partly sunny with clouds increasing from the west during the afternoon and evening.

Showers and storms move in on Saturday and the Hi-Res NAM is showing some hot spots of torrential rains …


That model did a fairly good job in showing the high totals with the last few rounds of storms, so it may be onto something for Saturday. A few of those storms could also be strong.

Additional showers and storms hang around into Sunday with the models showing a general inch or two of rain for the weekend…


From there, much cooler air is likely to take over as we go into the first week of May. The Ensembles agree on a big dip in the jet stream through Kentucky Derby Week…



Those are two separate model runs, but they are nearly identical! That’s a pretty high confidence look for cooler than normal temperatures. As a matter of fact, the operational run of the GFS continues to indicate a couple mornings COULD be close to patchy frost levels.

The first comes by Tuesday morning…

GFS Temps

The next threat arrives behind this front…


The temps behind that for Friday morning…

GFS Temps 2

This stormy pattern leading to a colder setup for Derby week has been talked about here for the past few weeks. 😉

Make it a great Friday and take care.