Daily Archives: October 1, 2011
Good Evening gang. If you are a regular reader of the blog, you know how long I have been yapping about the cold air and frost threat this weekend. I mentioned on several occasions I was surprised no other sources were talking about it. Well… that has changed and now a Frost Advisory is out for much of central and eastern Kentucky.
Here is a look…
Now let’s pick on the orientation of the advisory. Are we to believe there is a frost threat all the way into central Tennessee… in central Kentucky… southern Indiana and Illinois… yet it somehow skips the western half of Kentucky? This is among the little things from the NWS offices that just drives me nuts. Why are Louisville and Paducah trying to get so cute with advisories?
The area not under an advisory is the exact area I think has an increased threat for frost. Why? Because that’s the region with clear skies! I have no issues with far eastern Ky not being under the advisory because of clouds.
Moral of the story… ALL areas of central and western Kentucky have a good shot of seeing frost overnight. Temps will dip into the low and mid 30s.
Did I just jump on my first soapbox of the cold weather season? That’s a sure sign winter is getting closer.
I will have a full update later tonight so check back. Follow your evening temps here…
Good Saturday everyone and welcome to the month of October. You may want to check your calendars as the weather out there today will look and feel more like November with a weather map looking more like winter. There are some changes to the forecast as we see this evolving into another slow moving storm system cutting off from the main flow.
This has been the fall of closed upper level lows and the trough digging into the east makes the third mega cutoff of the past month. This fits especially well with one of my winter analog years, but that’s not important right now.
Take a look at how potent and slow this thing is…
With this system closing off… we get a slightly different look to the forecast. Here ya go…
- Showers will be much more common across the eastern half of the state over the next few day. This action may carry us all the way into Monday. This won’t be constant, but we will see on and off action as disturbances rotate around the closed low.
- Central and western Kentucky will see a bit more in the way of clouds.
- Temps today are going to struggle big time. Highs in the east may not get out of the 40s in some cases. Central Ky will hit the low 50s with the west in the upper 50s.
- The frost threat for Sunday morning is not as clear cut now because of the threat for clouds and showers. Any area that sees clear skies will see frost with temps in the low and mid 30s. The central and west have the best shot of clear skies right now.
- Showers will try to back west on Sunday and I will be curious to see how far back into central Kentucky these can get. Temps will once again be chilly with low 50s east to low 60s in the far west.
- A shower or two will linger into Monday as our Indian Summer gets delayed a few days because of the slow moving low.
To see what a fine line we are walking in terms of rain action, take a look at the rainfall forecast through Monday from the NAM…
We will need to watch this as it may try to pull a bit farther west in time. The last upper level low came in farther west than the models advertised and we will see if this one fits that mold.
The other aspect of this setup is a wintry one. Parts of the highest elevations of the Appalachian Mountains from Pennsylvania south into North Carolina can pick up some heavy wet snows over the weekend. Both the NAM and GFS are showing this…
I still cannot rule out a snowflake mixing in across the highest elevations along the Virginia border at some point this weekend.
This whole setup is another example of the extreme pattern we are in and I see NO reason this will change as we head into the coming winter months. Some very extreme options and winters are now showing up on my list.
Let’s get back to the reality of the here and now with your tracking toys…
Have a great Saturday and check back for updates. Take care.