Daily Archives: October 16, 2011

Good Sunday afternoon everyone. Temps today have spiked up to 80 in many areas as winds gust close to 35mph at times. In a few days… highs will likely stay in the 40s for many as a massive pattern change takes place.

The winter pattern we have been talking about may take on a little bit of a tropical twist. A system is trying to get going down in the Gulf of Mexico and may become a named storm over the next day or so. Here’s a look at the area of concern…



As our winter looking trough digs into the central and eastern half of the country… this storm will be picked up and become entrained into the pattern. That is going to add some serious juice to an already stacked setup.

This means a bigger storm winding up in the eastern part of the country and may end up being much more of a rain and wind maker for us. It will also be able to tap some colder air for the middle of the week. Folks… if this were JUST 3 weeks down the road… wow! This would be a monster of a snowstorm for many people. It’s mid October, so the air looks to be warm enough for mainly rain outside of the Appalachian Mountains. It is going to be very close and is something to keep an eye on.

The action gets started Tuesday with a mega temp gradient taking shape across the state…



That is showing a 30-35 degree temp swing. That would be awfully impressive for this time of year!

Once the big storm winds up o our east… check out the cold high temps being forecast by the GFS…



Brrr!

In the short term… a cold front is sinking southward toward the state and is kicking off a scattered shower or two. Some of those may sneak in here tonight and early Monday. You can see those here…



Enjoy your evening and take care.

Good Sunday to one and all. We are ending this weekend on a very nice weather note as temps soar into the 70s. If you’re a fan of this type of weather… enjoy it as things are about to undergo a drastic change for the week ahead.

Let’s start with the pleasant part of the program and that’s what we have out there today. Skies will continue to run on the partly to mostly sunny side of things as highs reach the low and mid 70s for many. Far western Ky will flirt with 80. The winds will be a factor once again today as gusts approach 30mph at times.

Some late day clouds will be possible as a front dips in from the north. This system drops in here overnight into Monday and may bring a few showers with it. This boundary will also set up a nice north-south temp gradient across the region on Monday.

Here is what the NAM thinks about the temps for Monday afternoon…



That front will then hang around the area into Tuesday as low pressure develops and works in from the south. This low is likely to track across far southeastern Kentucky as MUCH colder air works in behind it from the west and northwest. This is a situation that you normally find in the winter and if we were a month down the road… something similar could pack quite the snowy punch for many.

Let’s look at the European Model Depiction…



What does it mean for us?

- Rain will increase from west to east Monday night into early Tuesday as low pressure works in from the southwest. A rumble of thunder is possible just ahead of this track.

- Winds are going to crank up again and our temps will crash into the 40s from west to east.

- As the cold front presses east Tuesday night… another low will pop across the Carolinas and lift northward into the mid atlantic states. This should throw some cold showers back into the region.

- High temps Wednesday into Thursday may have a very tough time getting out of the 40s in many areas. Gusty winds will make it feel even colder.

- The northwesterly wind flow will keep some clouds and scattered showers going into Thursday. The air doesn’t look cold enough for any flake action… but it’s impressive for this time of year. I can see a scenario where the higher elevations of southeastern Kentucky mix in some wet snow.

- If we can get some clearing in here for Thursday or Friday mornings… temps can hit 32 or below.

All signs continue to point to  a few more deep troughs digging into the eastern half of the country over the next few weeks. These will be able to tap an increasing amount of cold showing up in Canada. You can see this cold to our north from the day 7 European Model…



This could play into the “late October to early November possible early fun and games period” I have been harping on for a few months. We shall see.

I will have another update coming later today so check back. Have  a great Sunday and take care.