Daily Archives: October 18, 2011

Good Tuesday evening gang. Strong and severe thunderstorms are cranking up across much of central and southern Kentucky. These storms are feeding on a major temp gradient setting up from west to east across the bluegrass state.

Current Temps




These are racing from southwest to northeast and can produce large hail, damaging winds, torrential rain and frequent lightning. Here are the radars to track the action…







The remainder of the forecast is on track with this massive storm impacting the state over the next few days. A brief breakdown…

- Heavy rain and storms this evening into the overnight. Those heavy rains will continue into Wednesday and early Thursday.

- Winds are going to REALLY going to become an issue. Gusts of 40-45mph will be very possible late Wednesday into Thursday. This may cause some power problems.

- Temps for Wednesday and Thursday will be in the 40s for highs.

- The air is VERY close to being able to produce some sleet Wednesday night and early Thursday. That is certainly a possibility. The higher elevations of southeastern Kentucky should see snow mixing in or a full blown change to wet flakes.

It’s a wild pattern and we will be here to keep you up to date. Help us out by posting the weather conditions from where you live.

Have a great evening and take care.

Good Tuesday everyone. This is going to be a very busy next couple of days here on the blog as we will be tracking a monster of a fall storm. This will have a major impact on Kentucky with heavy rain, high winds, cold temps and the chance for something frozen all on the menu.

Late last week I had a post showing the similarities between the current setup and the one from Halloween 1993. The closer we get to this storm… the better that call looks. Check out the computers number one analog for this storm…



At hour 36… 1993 was the closest analog to the setup the models have to this storm over the next few days. You can see the similarities here…



That’s not a bad match… but there are some key differences. The 1993 setup was two weeks later in the season and was colder than the current one. This one looks to be more potent than what we had back then as a powerhouse storm takes shape.

Here is how I see things playing out…

- Today will feature a huge temp spread across the state. The west will be in the upper 40s to low 50s as the far southeast makes a run at 80. Showers and thunderstorms will increase from west to east.

- A wave of low pressure will swing across the state tonight as whatever is down in the eastern Gulf heads north toward the Carolinas. These two will then hook up to form a POWERHOUSE storm. Look at the Wednesday map above you will notice the cutoff low takes on a negative tilt. This will capture our surface low and whip it northwestward into the northern Ohio Valley.

- Heavy rain and high winds will be common tonight into Wednesday. Winds may gust close to 40mph at times as some areas see more than an inch of rain. Temps will likely stay in the mid and upper 40s for highs for many.

- Colder air will continue to work in Wednesday night into early Thursday. The freezing level will come down and this could cause some sleet to mix in with the rain at times. This could also mean a switch to wet snow in the higher elevations of southeastern Ky.

- Thursday will be another cold, windy and damp day with highs again in the 40s.

- The storm will SLOWLY pull away on Friday with a leftover shower possible. Temps should only recover into the low and mid 50s.

- Saturday and Sunday mornings should see our coldest temps of the fall with lows dipping to freezing or below.

This is an amazing setup for this time of the year and is making my analog years, one in particular, really look good.

Let’s get you set to track the start of the wild weather…












Current Temps



I will have more updates later today. Enjoy your Tuesday and take care.