Daily Archives: October 19, 2011

Good Wednesday evening everyone. The big storm system across the Ohio Valley continues to deepen and this will cause our winds to really crank up overnight into Thursday. I have some new tracking tools for you and some quick thoughts on this storm and next week.

The latest on the current storm…

- This is one heck of a storm system for the month of October and would make the winter months proud!

- The heavy band of rain that put down nearly 2″ of water today across the eastern half of the state will slowly work out. It will be replaced by widespread showers that will carry us into tomorrow.

- The cold air is entrenched across the state and overnight readings will hit the upper 30s to low 40s for many. This is cold enough for the higher elevations of southeastern Kentucky to pick up some wet snow. Any area through early Thursday can see a touch of sleet trying to mix in with the rain.

- The winds will continue to increase tonight and Thursday with gusts of 30mph and higher very likely.

- It looks like some low clouds and showers are going to try to hang tough into Friday across the east.

- Clearing skies this weekend will allow for temps to drop toward freezing or a bit below. A hard frost or light freeze is possible.

Your evening tracking toys…



Current Temps



Winds


Today’s Rainfall


What about next week and the potential for another big blast of cold? The GFS continues to hold steady with this big blast and a bigger storm in the east. The European Model decides to leave much of the energy behind across the southwestern states. This is a bias of the model and one we have pointed out many times through the years. It doesn’t always mean it’s wrong and the Canadian Model does have a similar look.

The GFS Ensembles are all in on the cold shot…



Never a dull moment around here and this is a sign of the winter to come.

Have a great evening and take care.

 Good Wednesday to one and all. We have one heck of a fall storm in progress across the state and this bad boy is just getting started. We have the blog ready to track the changing conditions out there today. I also take a little sneak peek into the next possible fun storm on the horizon.

This storm has been fairly well behaved since we started tracking it more than a week ago. The setup is one that has a winter look to it as one storm digs in across the eastern Ohio Valley and captures another storm working up the east coast.



Here is what it means…

- Rain will be heavy at times today into tonight. Some areas will pick up more than one inch of water through Thursday.

- Winds today through Thursday will crank up with gusts of 40-45mph possible… especially later tonight and early Thursday. This may cause some issues with power.

- Temps today will stay in the 40s for many areas. The east my wake up to some 50s before crashing during the mid morning.

- Showers will continue into Thursday. With a low freezing level… some sleet may mix in at times. The higher elevations of southeastern Kentucky may pick up some wet snow out of this.

- Clouds will decrease Friday and this should set us up for frost and freezing conditions by Saturday morning.

Let’s track the wild weather…



Current Temps




Looking a little farther down the road, we find the active pattern continuing into next week. A weak system will dive in from the northwest Sunday night and Monday and may touch off a shower or two.

The models have been jumping all over another big surge of cold air for the middle and end of next week and several of them try to blow up a big storm again. Here is one of the latest runs of the GFS…



That is about as extreme as you can possibly get for this time of year. I’m not saying it’s even remotely right… but using it to illustrate just how wild this pattern really is. There is some potential for some fun late next week.

Have a great Wednesday and take care.