Daily Archives: October 24, 2011
Good Monday evening everyone. If you’re winter lover, you have to be a fan of Canada and Europe. Why? Because their forecast models for late this week into the weekend show our region in a prime spot for the first flakes of the season.
Here is the European Model…
The model does bring the first flakes to just about everyone and even tries to put some slush down across eastern Ky…
The Canadian Model is on board with a similar tracking storm…
Remember the “kicker” I showed you guys in the last update? Well… the storm you see above is from this disturbance diving into the region late Friday into Saturday.
This would be the second storm to impact the region over the next several days. The one coming late Wednesday into Thursday is a rain maker with much colder air moving in behind it.
We still have a few days to watch it and the models are going to go back and forth on how they handle the setup. Regardless… it is a winter looking pattern. Now, let’s wait and see if it can bring some winter precipitation to us.
Have a great evening and take care.
Good Monday everyone. How about that weather of the past few days? Frosty cold mornings and mild afternoons teamed up to give us a quintessential late October weekend. The new week is upon us and this will bring about another big change in our weather pattern. A week that starts fairly warm will end with more of a winter looking setup.
We do have a weak front out there today and it’s coming close enough to produce some scattered showers for some. The best chance for rain will be across central and eastern Kentucky and you can track the action here…
The air today should run on the mild side with highs in the 60s across the east with low 70s in the west. That’s an area of the state that will see more in the way of sunshine.
Breezy and warm air will then surge in here on Tuesday as highs across the entire region hit the 70s. An 80 is possible in the west as southwesterly winds gust up ahead of another big weather change as we head into the middle of the week.
This is the change we’ve been talking about for a while now as another blast of cold air works into the eastern half of the country. The forecast models are now taking a different approach with the end of the week.
I have a map of the upper levels from the European Model for the end of the week into the weekend. The two areas I have highlighted in yellow show how the energy diving in from Canada is splitting instead of coming together for a powerhouse system. The area in green is a “kicker” system working in right behind the initial trough. Watch how each of these play out into the weekend…
Since the two pieces of energy remain separate… we get a weaker trough across the east. The “kicker” working in behind these also keeps the first system much more progressive. Our kicker then tries to dig in across the Ohio Valley on Saturday.
What does all that junk mean for our actual weather?
- A cold front approaches the area on Wednesday with an increase in showers and thunderstorms from west to east. There should be a healthy temp gradient showing up during this time.
- A wave of low pressure works right on top of us Wednesday night and early Thursday with some locally heavy rains.
- Temps Thursday will crash into the 40s as this low passes by to our northeast.
- This faster and weaker moving storm should keep any frozen action to our north and northeast.
- Friday would be a clear and cold day before a system dives in from the northwest on Saturday.
All of this shows up on the European Model…
Again… that breakdown is based on how the models are currently handling the late week setup and that could change again as they get a better look at the energy working into North America.
That is yet another cold pattern as we head into Halloween Weekend.
I will have another update later today. Have a great Monday and take care.