Daily Archives: November 12, 2011
Good Saturday and welcome to the weekend. We have a very windy period ahead of us as the pattern across North America continues to run in overdrive. The winds will blow in a much more active period over the next few weeks.
Today will feature plenty of sunshine with temps heading into the upper 50s and low 60s for many. The west will run several degrees warmer than the rest of us. The winds will be the main player as gusts really crank up this afternoon into Sunday. Gusts may hit 40mph at times this weekend.
If you have been with me through the years, you know how I love seeing a lot of wind in Fall. This is usually a sign of a very active winter pattern ahead.
Clouds will roll in later tonight and Sunday and a few showers may move into parts of the state before the day is over. The GFS shows some of these by Sunday afternoon…
These showers break out as warmer air moves in from the southwest. Temps into the 60s will be likely from Sunday through Monday and possibly Tuesday. The models continue to key in on a storm that should roll from southwest to northeast across the Ohio Valley on Tuesday. The trend is for a stronger system and this would bring down colder air behind it for the middle and end of the week. The GFS…
Any storm that deepens is going to be able to tap the vast reservoir of cold air just to our north in Canada. The models simply are not designed to be able to pinpoint such storms more than 3 or 4 days out right now. The seasonal change and a tremendous temperature gradient across North America is a bad sign for model worshippers as the models are going to be flipping and flopping a lot in the coming weeks.
One thing I am confident of is our region being in an active storm track over the next few weeks. Use the GFS precipitation forecast as a guide to show this…
It is this active pattern that leads to a rock and roll start to winter for much of the country. This will kick in later this month and ramp up into December. I can’t tell you exactly when that starts for us.
Think of this… today is November 12th and we’ve already had 4 days where snow has been reported somewhere across the state. That’s a little perspective for ya!
Have a great Saturday and check back for updates. Take care.