Daily Archives: November 19, 2011

Good Sunday afternoon everyone. The rain arrived on time this morning and will be in no big hurry to get out of town. Some parts of western Kentucky have already picked up 2″ of water and we have a lot more to go through over the next few days. This pattern may also produce strong or severe storms by Tuesday.

This is a VERY rough and tumble pattern and when it goes wintry on us… watch out. It’s one that can produce some monster winter storms across our part of the world.

It’s all about the heavy rain and possible severe weather in the short term. The NAM continues to show another 1″-3″ of rain through Tuesday night…

Areas getting in on thunderstorms can pick up much higher totals.

The setup for Tuesday into Tuesday evening is fairly potent in terms of producing severe weather and high winds. The Storm Prediction Center has much of the state in the slight risk…

Damaging winds will be possible with the storms Tuesday into Tuesday night.

The storm moving in for next weekend looks like a biggie and can produce more in the way of heavy rain and strong storms before making a wintry transition.

It’s a busy time in the wonderful world of weather and I have little doubt this is going to lead to a wild winter!

Rain tracking toys…

Have  a great rest of your Sunday and take care.

Good Saturday everybody and welcome to the weekend. We have some nice weather out there today… enjoy it. Things are about to take a soggy turn into Sunday as we head back into a very rainy period.

Rain totals are really going to add up over the next several days and this may end up causing some high water problems. Here is a taste of what i’m expecting…

- Today looks nice with some clouds increasing and temps into the upper 50s and low 60s. It’s a good day to put up those Christmas lights.

- Rain arrives late tonight into early Sunday and will become heavier as the day wears on. Some areas are likely to pick up more than an inch of rain through Sunday night.

- Monday will see more in the way of light rain and showers as we find ourselves in between areas of low pressure.

- The next low looks to be the stronger of the two and will arrive on Tuesday. This will cause an increase in heavy rain and may produce some thunderstorms. Winds should also pick up as this low crosses the region into Tuesday night.

- Rain totals from Sunday through Wednesday morning should range from 1″-3″ with locally higher amounts possible. We will have to watch for rises on area streams and smaller rivers.

- A quick shot of colder air will filter in behind the departing low by Wednesday and you can see that well on the European model…



The weather for Thanksgiving Day into Black Friday looks great. Sunny skies will return with highs near normal.

The rest of Thanksgiving weekend looks to feature another big storm impacting the region. This one may also be accompanied by a big shot of cold air by next Sunday and that’s something I will focus more on in the coming days.

If you are wanting a more permanent change to winter… the GFS is showing how this happens over the next few weeks. There has been a massive vortex sitting on top of Alaska for the past few weeks and this is causing the pattern across the lower 48 to run on the mild side. Alaska has been breaking cold weather records on a daily basis because of this monster.

You want to see this feature leave Alaska in order to get the true cold to move our way. You can see the difference from next week to the first week of December…



That run builds a big ridge up the west coast into Alaska while flooding Canada and the eastern half of the country with cold air and a true winter pattern. We shall see how this progresses over the next few weeks.

Have a great Saturday and take care.