Daily Archives: November 21, 2011
Good Monday evening to one and all. Rain, fog and possible severe storms are combining to make the beginning of the travel period rather ugly. Something else that may make travel ugly is a storm threat for the weekend and early next week.
The models have been honing in on a mega closed upper level low that takes on a rather extreme look by Sunday and Monday. All of the available models show something similar to what the new European Model has…
That would be a rain to snow producer across our region and is one that has a shot to become a significant event somewhere in the Ohio Valley. It is way to early to tell where that will be or if it will even happen.
This is a setup that fits some of my analog years I am using for the winter forecast. I have made no bones about my thoughts on a big change to winter toward the end of November into early December. I even highlighted this period as one that can produce a winter storm somewhere across the eastern half of the country.
The upper low should be in no big hurry to leave us and would likely stick around into the middle of next week with the potential for more wintry weather. This looks to be the start of a winter pattern around here.
This one should be fun to watch.
Have a great rest of your evening and take care.
Good Monday and welcome to the busy Thanksgiving holiday travel period. Things are looking very busy with two storms that will impact the region through Sunday. Thanksgiving Day will be sandwiched between the two and that will result in some great gobble gobble weather. The storm coming after Thanksgiving continues to look awfully interesting.
Rains have been locally heavy since Sunday and that trend will continue today into Tuesday. A few strong or severe storms are possible today. It’s into Tuesday and Tuesday night that things may really fire up as strong low pressure works across the Ohio Valley. High winds and a greater threat for severe thunderstorms will be with us during this time.
The Storm Prediction Center shows the severe threat…
Winds should be very gusty with or without storms. If these boomers do get going… damaging winds will be a real possibility.
Showers will slowly work out of here on Wednesday as a chilly wind blows. Our temps will come way down behind the departing storm.
Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday continue to look fantastic with temps into the upper 50s to low 60s with a gusty wind blowing. Skies should be mainly sunny for both days. As I mentioned… these days are wedged in between two storms.
The next bad boy is slated to arrive on the scene later Saturday into Sunday and should bring another round of heavy rain and thunder in front of it. This one will have a nice push of cold air to work with and we should see a fairly dramatic temp drop at some point this weekend. This could set the stage for some snows to fly late in the weekend or early next week.
Many of the models are going toward the extreme solution the European was showing a few days ago. Check out the monster of an upper low on the GFS…
That would certainly produce snows underneath a system like that. The Canadian is showing something similar a day or two later…
It will be interesting to see how this plays out in the coming days as my analog years have indicated something like this being possible. That doesn’t mean it will happen, but the models are sensing the potential.
Speaking of the models, don’t get caught up with any one run. They will likely handle all this differently from run to run. With energy ejecting out of the southwest… this is not something to totally trust the European Model with. It has issues leaving too much energy behind in the southwestern part of the country.
Time will tell how this turns out… but we have something to watch.
Let’s get back to tracking the weather of today…
I will have more updates as needed. Have a wonderful Monday and take care.