Daily Archives: November 30, 2011

Good evening gang and thanks for checking out what we have to say. December gets off to a rather tame start around here, but don’t be fooled. A wild pattern is ahead of us over the next few weeks and it has a ton of winter to bring to the country. Yes… this should include us.

I mentioned in my last update that the big dip in the jet stream late this weekend into early next week had the look of one that could produce another cutoff low. The European Model ran straight to that idea late last night and continued the trend today… albeit with a different placement.

The GFS is also on board with a cutoff…



IF the cutoff low idea is correct it would mean another drenching rain from Sunday into Monday with a switch to snow on Tuesday. This is a much different setup than the last closed low because it is more northern stream dominated meaning a ton of cold air will be diving into this.

The heavy rain threat is not something we want to see. Take a look at the GFS rain forecast…



Wow. That has major river flooding written all over it. Again… IF it is to be believed.

Check out the cold air slamming into this storm Tuesday into Tuesday night…



That would certainly make for a quick switch to snow as temps take a major dip!

This setup reminds me of one from back in the first week of December 1978. I was a child then, but I’ve often heard about the back to back storms that produced flooding across the state. The second storm ended with accumulating snows and temps dropping into the teens. That temp drop ended up slowing the runoff and helped preclude even worse flooding.

I just pulled up the maps from back then and it’s not a bad match… IF the models are correct. BTW… 78-79 turned very cold and snowy.

Not saying all of this plays out that way… but the maps today got me thinking.

Regardless of the flood threat… old man winter takes some big swings at us over the next few weeks!

Take care.

                                         

Good Wednesday to one and all.  It’s about time to sound the all aboard whistle on the Roscoe P. Coldtrain. This is the cold weather train inspired by the famous Dukes Of Hazzard character, Sherrif Roscoe P. Coltrane. The pattern shows the train leaving the station and should arrive here next week.

More on that in a bit. Let’s talk about what we have today and the improving weather ahead of us for the next several days.

Many areas picked up snow showers and some light snow Tuesday and some light snow and flurry action will hang tough early today in the east. If you are playing along at home… today makes the 9th fall day with snow falling somewhere across the state. Not too shabby!

Highs today range from 40 east to mid 40s west with a gusty wind adding to the chill. December looks to get off on a seasonal start with highs back into the 40s for Thursday and Friday under partly sunny skies.

The weekend will see temps bouncing up to near 50 for Saturday. This is ahead of a plains storm that should bring an increase in clouds and rain for us into Sunday. A shot of MUCH COLDER air will be filtering in behind the front that will slowly cross the region on Monday. This is when rain and snow will be possible and I still think we have to watch for a wave of low pressure developing along the front.

Check out the amount of cold air behind this bad boy…



That’s the European Model and all the other models look very similar. As I look at the 500mb pattern for early next week, it looks like one that can produce another major cutoff. This time with much colder air. Just something to think about.

The pattern is going to try to get true arctic air involved at some point over the next few weeks. Look at this blast of bitter from the European Model for the end of next week…



Brrrr!!! All aboard….