Monthly Archives: December 2011

                                                 

Good Saturday and welcome to the last day of the year. 2011 is about to become history as we turn our attention to 2012. It looks like the flip in the calendar will bring good news for cold and snow lovers across the region as an arctic blast hits town for the first few days of the new year.

This blast has been well advertised and I have absolutely no changes to my thoughts on this bad boy. Let’s talk about the now and the future with the headlines…

- Clouds will be tough to scour out this morning and we could hang on to a leftover shower or two. Some drying in the afternoon means some rays of sun to go along with the gusty breeze and temps in the 40s.

- Temps will be in the 30s as the clock strikes 2012. There should be no travel problems from mother nature.

- A cold front arrives New Year’s Day and may produce a shower or two as it crosses the region. Winds are really going to gust up and our temps will drop from the 40s early into the mid and upper 30s by late in the day.

- The true shot of arctic air moves in on Monday and should be accompanied by a period of light snow and snow showers. Highs will be in the 20s, but will feel much colder because of the gusty winds.

- Northwesterly winds will get cranking late Monday into Monday night and Tuesday. These winds will pick up moisture from the very warm Great Lakes and bring snow showers and squalls our way. The greatest concentration will be across the central and east and this shows up well on the models…

NAM


GFS Ensembles


- With all the cold temps… there will be a big fluff factor with the snow as we maximize every bit of moisture available. Whatever snow falls where you live will blow around in the gusty winds. I will talk totals later this weekend, but I do expect accumulations for much of our region with some areas possibly getting in on a nice snowfall.

- Temps will continue to run cold into Tuesday with mid 20s for highs. Gusty winds continue to add that extra chill. Temps hit the teens by Wednesday morning.

- I am still watching a possible clipper for later Wednesday into Thursday. Some of the models are robust with this, while others aren’t very excited. The Canadian continues to like the idea…



Another update will come your way at some point later today. Have a great Saturday and Happy New Year! Take care.

Good Friday evening and welcome to the weekend. We are starting the weekend off with a touch of March weather. Temps are mild, winds are cranking and showers are on the move. This is all ahead of a monster change as we roll into the new year.

Some thoughts on “the change”.

- Front number one arrives on Sunday with a couple of showers, gusty winds and falling temps. Highs will be in the 40s early in the day and will crash into the 30s from west to east.

- Some flurries and light snow showers will dance around Sunday night.

- The real push of arctic air arrives Monday as a strong disturbance pushes in from the northwest. This will cause widespread light snow to break out with the best chances across the central and east. The NAM simulated radar is just now picking up on this…



- Northwesterly winds kick in by Monday afternoon and continue into Tuesday. This will pick up moisture off the Great Lakes to enhance the upslope flow. Widespread snow showers and squalls should be the end result.

- I do expect some accumulation for many areas with the potential for a nice little snowfall across the east and southeast.

- Winds will gust to 20mph or higher during this time and that means some blowing powder and very cold wind chills.

- Highs Monday and Tuesday will stay in the 20s with lows in the low to mid teens by Tuesday morning.

The European Model shows the frigid blast…



Back to the “now”… let’s track some March showers.



Have a great evening and take care.

Good Friday everyone. Our big holiday weekend is kicking off on a mild and windy note across Kentucky today as our eyes turn toward a blast of winter to start 2012. This will mark a nice change from the boring stuff we’ve had through December.

Today features a potent, fast moving system working into the Ohio Valley. This bad boy will cause our winds to really increase and should also spawn some showers. Highs today will hit the 50-55 degree range.

Let’s track the showers…



Those scattered showers will linger into very early Saturday morning as some cooler air moves in. Temps MAY get just cold enough for a wet flake in the mountains early in the day. This scoots on out of here quickly during the afternoon and this will set the stage for a calm New Year’s Eve. Temps will be cooler than today with highs in the mid 40s and readings in the 30s as we say hi to 2012.

That brings us to New Year’s Day and the big change blowing into town. This is when an arctic front crashes through the region with gusty winds, a few showers and falling temps. Readings will start in the 40s and fall into the 30s by the end of the day with a few snow showers taking over.

The cold air will then really kick in Sunday night through Tuesday as a deep trough engulfs the eastern half of the country. Highs in the 20s look good for Monday and Tuesday with lows dipping into the low and mid teens by Tuesday morning. Winds are also going to be VERY gusty and this may create wind chills nearing 0 at times. BRRR!

What about the snow? This is the type of setup that produces snow showers and squalls and that’s likely to be amplified by the totally unfrozen and warmer than normal Great Lakes. This cold air pouring over the lakes will pick up more moisture than normal and that means areas downstream will see the white stuff kicking up.

Here’s the GFS showing the increase in snow…



Look for the GFS to really start picking up on the snow shower and squall threat as we get closer. The GFS Ensembles seem to have a decent handle on the moisture…



Don’t be surprised to see snow flurries flying all the way into northern Georgia with this type a setup.

I am also keeping an eye out on a clipper for Wednesday into Thursday. The Canadian Model is the most robust with this…



I will have another update for all you snow and cold starved winter lovers later today. Have a great Friday and take care.

Good Thursday evening everyone. I wanted to drop by with an update to say there is really nothing that needs updated. The pattern for the next week is fairly easy as we only have the details to iron out.

It’s a big time blast of arctic air moving in New Year’s Day and carrying us into the first half of next week. The maps below say BRRRRRRR!

European Model


European Ensembles


My thoughts:

- New Year’s Day starts windy and mild with temps well into the 40s. Rain showers ahead of the front will change to snow showers behind it by late in the day as temps crash through the 30s.

- Snow showers and squalls will be likely from Sunday night through Tuesday. The Great Lakes are ice free and above normal in temps. The models will catch on to this over the next few days.

- Temps Monday and Tuesday will likely stay in the 20s for highs with lows down into the low and mid teens By Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds of 30mph will be possible during this time and may create wind chills near 0 at times.

- The first school delays and cancelations are very possible early next week.

Have a great evening and take care.

Good Thursday to one and all. We’re just a few days away from closing out 2011 and the weather is fairly calm and quiet. 2012 looks to come in with a much different idea on how to run winter as an arctic blasts targets us and much of the eastern half of the country.

Our remaining days of the year look to feature fairly mild temps, plenty of clouds and breezy weather. Temps the next few days will hit the upper 40s and low 50s. We do have  weak system dropping in by Thursday night and this will allow for the chance for some rain showers that may mix with a flake by Saturday morning.

You can see this fast moving system on the GFS…



That scoots through here at a good clip and will be out of town as we say hello to 2012. Temps will be in the 30s as we flip the calendar to the new year.

The real change begins New Year’s Day as an arctic front works blows through here. Our highs for the day will come during the morning hours and the winds will become very gusty. A line of rain showers  will be along and ahead of the front with a period of light snow and snow showers behind it.

The Canadian Model shows how this plays out…

Sunday Evening


Monday Morning

Monday Evening

At this point, there should be no “this model verses this model” talk as they ALL now show a deep trough in the east. They have the usual subtle differences that you expect from 4 days out.

My take is we get a couple of days with highs struggling to get out of the 20s and lows dipping into the low and mid teens. Winds will be gusty during this time and that will really add to the chill.

What about the snow chances? The pattern argues for snow showers and squalls during this time and that’s especially true given how warm the Great Lakes are. We will also need to watch a system diving in by the middle of the week and that can become a snow producer.

I will have another update later today. Have a great Thursday and take care.

Good Wednesday evening gang. 2011 is going out on a rather tame note, while 2012 looks to ride into town on the arctic express. We have been highlighting this possibility for several days now and things appear to be right on track. What kind of snow will this bring our way? That’s still up in the air, but it should bring a heck of a snow shower and squall pattern if nothing else.

The GFS was the only model not showing a big trough in the east early next week, but it finally caved today…



It now matches what all other models have been saying for the past several days. The new European Model is even colder than any of it’s prior runs…



Folks, thats some cold stuff all the way deep into Florida! Taken verbatim, that’s one heck of a snow shower and squall pattern for Monday and Tuesday around here… especially with the Great Lakes being much warmer than normal.

A few days ago, I took a playful jab at the NWS in Jackson because their extended forecast discussions kept saying the European was wrong and had no support and that the GFS was the way to go. EVERY model has been supporting the European from day one and the GFS was the lone wolf in showing NO TROUGH.  The GFS looks almost identical to the European now.

This is from their morning discussion before the GFS flipped:

THE NEXT BIG ENIGMA IN THE EXTENDED COMES IN THE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY PERIOD AS THE GFS…THE LIKELY SOLUTION…DEVELOPS A BROAD
TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST AS A STRONG VORT MAX MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE…A VIGOROUS LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT STRETCHES SOUTH INTO THE GULF COAST.
THE FRONT EXITS THE COAST BY TUESDAY AND THIS IS THE PROGRESSIVE AND
MOST LIKELY SOLUTION AS THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE GFS AND EURO
SUPPORT THIS. THE MEMBERS OF THE NAO WOULD SUPPORT THIS AS WELL. THE
EURO HAS BEEN CONSISTENT BUT HAS NO SUPPORT FROM THE ENSEMBLES NOR
TELECONNECTIONS. IN THE EURO SOLUTION…A VERY DEEP AMPLIFIED TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY AND ALONG WITH IT…THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON. THE 28.00Z RUN OF THE EURO CONTINUES WITH THIS
SOLUTION AS WELL.

THEREFORE…AS STATED EARLIER…WILL SIDE WITH THE GFS.

I don’t even know where to start with that, so let’s move on to the afternoon discussion:

MODEL OUTPUT TAKEN AS A WHOLE DOES APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS A MORE SIMILAR SOLUTION…ESPECIALLYWITH THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF BECOMING MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS AMPLIFIED WITH ITS SOLUTION.

Let me get this straight… it’s the European that’s now changing? WHAT? It shows the deepest and coldest solution it’s shown yet. I will give them that it’s more progressive. But did you notice there was NO talk of the GFS undergoing a drastic change and looking identical to the European?

I think someone has a future in politics or public relations. Spinning the weather doesn’t work… trust me I know from experience. What’s gonna happen is gonna happen and there is nothing we can do to change it.

What are the odds we see some new names from the Breathitt County region leaving comments after this post? Just don’t leave your real e-mail addresses this time guys.

Have a great evening and take care.

Good Wednesday everyone and welcome to the middle of the work week. It’s a short week for many folks out there as we are sandwiched between Christmas and New Year’s. The weather looks to finish up the year on a calm note around here. Old Man Winter looks to wait until the clock strikes 2012 to shake things up a bit.

Today’s weather will feature a morning flurry that will be followed by some afternoon sunshine. High temps should be in the 30s east and 40s west.

A system will pass us by to the north on Thursday and this will allow for a breezy and milder day with readings well into the 40s to near 50.

Another system works across the Ohio Valley Friday night into early Saturday. This may get close enough to crank out a rain or snow shower before quickly moving on. This will leave us with a nice New Year’s Eve and Day as we await what looks to be a big plunge of cold air and possible snow early next week.

The pattern will feature an arctic cold front moving into town Late New Year’s Day into early Monday. This will have some very cold temps behind it and will likely have some snow. Will it have a wave of low pressure along it or will it fire up a big east coast storm? Both are possibilities at this point… but we are days away from knowing if that will happen.

The cold looks fairly certain, at this point.

European Model


Canadian Model





I will update things later today, so be sure to check back. Have a wonderful Wednesday and take care.

Good evening everyone. Rain and snow have been rolling across the state today as low pressure pulls off to our northeast. Winds have been whipping up and now we get set for snow showers and flurries to kick in. Let’s break it down…

- Snow showers and flurries will increase this evening across central and eastern Kentucky as a disturbance drops in from the northwest. This will put down a coating in some areas with the potential for up to an inch for any area getting in on a heavier snow shower.

- Temps drop into the mid and upper 20s late tonight and this will cause some slick spots to develop on roads.

- Morning Flurries will give way to some afternoon sun and highs in the 30s for Wednesday.

Follow the action here…




Current Temps



We can now add Lexington to the list of record breaking rains. 2011 surged past 1935 to claim the title of Wetttest Year On Record!! #WERENUMBERONE

Where do we go from here? All models not named the GFS continue to point to a major buckle in the jet stream early next week. This would bring a serious shot of winter to the eastern half of the country.  The European Model…
 


The model goes on to then produce an extreme look with a mega cutoff low on top of us with a powerhouse storm in the mid atlantic…



The model has shown this exact same solution for the past several runs and has the Canadian Model playing the role of wing man…



That would be a heck of a way to kick off 2012! Both of those models then show another cutoff and storm for the end of next week. We have several days to see how all this plays out.

On a shorter term note… that same European is showing some rain and snow showers to begin the last day of the year…



Have a great evening and take care.

Good Tuesday everyone. We’re getting set for a taste of winter today as rain switches to snow from west to east. This should be enough to put down light accumulations for  many areas as colder air rushes in. I have you set to track the transition from drops to flakes.

Here are a few thoughts on this system…

- Rain will be heavy at times early today. Some areas will pick up better than a half inch of water before the switch to snow. Today’s rain may be enough to push Lexington’s 2011 rainfall into the top spot for the wettest year on record.

- Rain will mix with and change to snow across the west this morning and that transition will reach eastern Kentucky by early evening as temps fall into the low and mid 30s.

- A lot of the snow that falls during the daylight hours will have to fight a wet ground, so expect a lot of melting. There will be some bands of snow that will be able to produce rates to overcome the wet ground and will give light accumulations to some.

- Keep an eye on areas along and near the Ohio River from Owensboro toward Covington. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some folks here get in on a slushy inch or two on elevated surfaces. The rest of the state could get a grassy coating to MAYBE a slushy inch today.

- Northwesterly winds this evening and overnight will produce widespread snow showers across central and eastern Kentucky. Another coating to MAYBE an inch would be possible during this time. Temps hitting the 20s will mean some slick spots will develop on area roads.

Let’s track today’s weather…




Current Temps



Rainfall Since Midnight



I will have updates later today and will send out some quick thoughts via twitter. Help us out by posting the weather conditions where you live.

Have a great Tuesday and take care.

Good Monday evening gang. Snow is on the way to the bluegrass state as we head into Tuesday and Tuesday night. This is all in response to a storm system rolling out of the south and up the east coast over the next few days.

Have a great evening and take care.