Monthly Archives: December 2011

Thoughts On The Last Week Of 2011

Good Monday to one and all and welcome to the last week of 2011. It’s hard to believe we are about to wrap up another year and the year looks to be ending on an active note. That’s a fitting way to finish out a hyper active weather year across our region.

A storm system is gaining strength to our southwest today and will roll our way later tonight into Tuesday. The track of this low is one that will bring rain to snow across our part of the world as the storm passes by just to our south and east. The models show this very well…

GFS Ensembles



GFS



Here’s a breakdown…

- Rain arrives overnight with locally heavy downpours likely through Tuesday morning.

- The storm deepens and pulls in colder air from the north and west and will result in rain mixing with and changing to wet snow during the afternoon and evening.

- A light accumulation will be possible across most of the region. I will also be watching for what’s known as a ‘deformation zone’ working across the area on the backside of the low. That could mean a band of heavier snow for some.

- Temps will hit the mid 20s by Wednesday morning and that mean some slick spots may develop on area roads. Some leftover snow showers or flurries should be around to start the day… especially in the east. 

- There will be a couple of weak systems diving in from the northwest later this week. These may try to bring something light our way.

- The models continue to point to a big buckle in the jet stream to begin the new year and this should mean a shot of cold and snow.

I will have another update later today. Have a great Monday and take care.

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Some Snow Coming Tuesday

Merry Christmas evening. Here’s hoping Santa was good to you guys and you got everything you asked for. Many of you were probably asking for some snow and it looks like that order is delayed by a few days. Dang lost packages!!

A storm system will come rolling our way from the southwest Monday night and Tuesday. This storm looks to track just to our south and east as it turns into a nice sized storm along the east coast. Rain breaks out by Tuesday morning and should change to snow from the west and north during the day as colder air sweeps in.

This is a setup that’s likely to give many areas a light accumulating snowfall. Is it a coating where you live or a few inches? I will fine tune that later tonight and Monday.

The GFS Ensembles are the most bullish on the snow threat…



The GFS isn’t too far behind…



Most everyone should see snow flying from Tuesday afternoon into the evening hours and I will be watching for  a “deformation zone” to set up somewhere nearby. This would be an area where some enhancement in the snow would be possible.

Northwesterly winds later Tuesday night and Wednesday should keep flurries and snow showers going.

There appears to be another clipper type system that may arrive late Friday into early Saturday and could provide some flakes.

The models continue to advertise a major amplification in the jet stream across the eastern half of the country to start 2012. If this happens… a significant shot of cold air and storm would be the result. The European Model has some eye candy…



A full update comes your way later today. Merry Christmas and take care.

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A Merry Christmas Update

Merry Christmas everyone. I hope you make this the best Christmas ever and that Santa is good to you. If not… there’s nothing wrong with a little coal in your stocking.   We have a very nice weather day in progress as really start to focus on a storm that’s set to impact the region over the next few days.

This system is now taking on a MUCH more wintry look as it tracks to our south and east Tuesday into Wednesday. This system will have a decent amount of cold air to work with and should provide a swath of snow north and west of its track. That COULD include parts of our area. 

The models certainly pass the look test…

European Model


Canadian Model


GFS Ensembles


GFS


This system is certainly getting a lot more of my attention as that’s usually a track that gives us some snow and we do have sufficient cold air diving into the storm. Odds favor rain moving in Monday night with a mix and switch to snow Tuesday. That’s all I can tell you at this point.

There should be a system diving in from the northwest behind this departing storm and that’s something to watch. The models are also going wild with a possible storm and deep trough as we start out the new year…



It looks like mother nature is finally flipping the switch to winter! I will have another update very late today, so be sure to check back. Christmas or not… your friendly weatherdude is still on the job for you guys.

Have a wonderful day and Merry Christmas. Take care.

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Merry Christmas Eve

Good Saturday everyone and Merry Christmas Eve. We have a seasonally chilly holiday weekend upon us and this will make for great travel conditions. I wanted to drop by with a few words on a super active setup for next week.

The storm that tried to form and move in for Christmas Day will be a day late in arriving. This system moves in late Monday and continues into Tuesday night and should bring another heavy rain event with a change to a mix or some snow.

Here is how it looks on the GFS…



The GFS Ensembles agree with the overall setup…




It’s an active pattern next week that will feature two more systems diving in from the northwest before the week is over. These will bring rain or snow to our region.

On a holiday weather note… Many of you have heard the automated voice on NOAA weather radio. I doubt you’ve heard it like this…



After hearing that… I don’t feel so bad about my singing. Have a Merry Christmas and take care.

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Friday Evening Update

Good Friday evening everyone. It’s a chilly start to our Christmas weekend and we even have a few sprinkles and flurries to kick things off. This isn’t a big deal, but it’s making it FEEL like it should for this time of year. That’s a start!

There are no changes to the holiday weekend weather. The storm that we had been targeting for Christmas Day into Monday is going to end up being a day late. It will hit our region late Monday into Tuesday with rain and a likely mix or switch to wet snow for some.

Here is your model roundup…

NAM Monday Night




GFS


European Model


It’s a very active pattern taking shape for the next few weeks and we will likely see several storm systems taking aim at the region. Any storm that really amplifies will need to be watched. Many of the indicies that have been killing us this early winter are becoming much more conducive to winter weather. As always… we shall see.

Have a great evening and take care.

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Friday Travel Weather Tracker

Good Friday to one and all and Merry Christmas. We’re kicking off the long Christmas weekend and today is going to be a very busy travel day across the state and the country. I have you all set to track the weather you may encounter as you head over the river and through the woods today. I will also talk about the rest of the weekend forecast and peek into next week.

We will see a lot of leftover clouds out there today and there could be a light shower or two hanging around. The GFS shows the threat for a drop or flake…



High temps will range from 40-45 degrees and then drop into the 30s by early evening. That’s when a festive snowflake may mix in. Let’s track today’s weather…

Current Temps






What about the temps for Santa as he makes his rounds Christmas Eve into Christmas Morning?



The threat for any flakes for Sunday is very low right now as the energy that teased us with a Christmas storm hangs back across Texas into early next week. There is a system diving in from the northwest that may clip the north and east with some flurries and that’s me being generous.

With the energy holding back… many of the models now decide to bring it out and develop the storm for Tuesday and Wednesday…

GFS Ensembles Tuesday Morning


European Model


At this point… I’m tired of tracking the silly thing. It’s going to do what it wants to do anyway. haha

I’ll have another update later today. Have a great Friday and be safe if you’re travelling. Take care.

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The GFS Won’t Give Up

Good evening everyone. Heavy rain will continue to pull on away from the state this evening allowing us to focus more on the weather of the next few days. The big news is that the GFS continues to try to pull a Christmas miracle with the weekend system.

My last update showed how the two systems were staying sperate long enough to keep a storm from forming. Each run of the GFS shows more and more interaction between these two disturbances…



The end result is a weak storm skirting us with some moisture…



If we can get that northern branch system to dig farther south and fully phase with the system moving out of the southern plains… we would be in business.

The GFS Ensembles are also trending in the same direction as the operational GFS.

It should be noted that these are the only two models trying to bring the storm back to life. All the others keep the southern plains system hanging around that region until the middle of next week. Many of them say that’s when we would have to watch for a storm.

The GFS has been all over the place this week… so let’s not get too excited by it’s trend. It does give us something to watch for with the latest computer runs tonight. Maybe there is something to that festivus miracle thing.

I do like what the GFS shows for Friday…



There is some low level moisture hanging tough and that means a lot of clouds and even some sprinkles or flurries.

Have a great evening and take care.

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NOT BREAKING NEWS: More Rain Moving In

Good Thursday everyone. We interrupt this regularly scheduled blog to bring you NOT BREAKING NEWS. Another round of heavy rain will move into Kentucky today as a fast moving low pressure works through the area. It has been an amazing year for rainfall across this entire region and this will only add to the record yearly totals for many areas.

I will have some words on Christmas weekend coming up in a bit. This is a busy travel day across the region and the country and heavy rain means a slow go at it… especially this afternoon and this evening.

Low pressure will track across Tennessee into Virginia by early Friday. That’s a snow track in a normal winter… this has not been a normal start to winter. That means we get rain and you’ll like it. A half to one inch of water will fall from the skies today and tonight and you can track it all…







Rainfall Since Midnight



Temps today will be in the upper 40s to near 50.

Colder air moves in for Friday with many areas holding between 40 and 45 degrees for afternoon highs. There will be some leftover moisture, so a light shower or evening flurry can’t be ruled out.

Christmas Eve looks seasonally chilly with highs again 40-45.

The models continue to swing and miss on the system for Christmas. Check out just how close the GFS is to having the two jet streams phase…



You can clearly see the two systems staying separate through Christmas day. It wouldn’t take much adjustment to get those two together and for the storm ro reappear. Time is running out… Here’s hoping for a festivus miracle!




I will have updates later today. Have a great Thursday and take care.

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Wednesday Evening Thoughts

Good Wednesday evening to one and all. The final day of fall felt more like spring out there as showers and thunderstorms and temps in the low 60s were noted for some. Now comes another soaker of a storm for Thursday. What about Christmas weekend? Is all hope lost?

Let’s break it down…

- A fast moving system works from southwest to northeast across the state Thursday with heavy rain likely. Many areas will pick up an additional half to one inch of water. Yippee!

- A weak front will be stretched out across the state on Friday and this allows for colder air to bleed in. This is likely to have enough juice for a rain or snow shower into the afternoon and evening. This shows up on the latest GFS…



- What happens after this is still up in the air. The models are awfully close to phasing energy across Texas with energy dropping in from the northwest. If they do this… you get your Christmas Day storm to form. The 6z GFS was doing everything it could to bring this system back…



Let’s see how this plays out into Thursday and Friday as I still don’t think the models have a good grasp on how to handle all the energy that’s out there.

A full update comes your way later tonight, as usual. Enjoy the rest of your evening and take care.



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Raining On Our White Christmas Parade?

Good Wednesday everyone. We have a rainy next few days ahead of us and the dreary weather is likely to play right into the moods of snow lovers across our region. The small chance we had for a white Christmas is even smaller today. More on that in a bit.

Low pressure is working into the Ohio Valley today and will bring widespread showers and even some isolated thunderstorms. There is even the slightest chance that one or two of the storms could be on the strong side across eastern Kentucky.

Let’s track the springtime weather…





Highs today are going to be warm with reading in the upper 50s and low 60s. Yes… it is 4 days before Christmas.

As this storm moves away later tonight… things may dry out for a  few hours before the next system sweeps in on Thursday. This storm is looking stronger and stronger and will bring heavy rains across the entire region into Thursday night.

Many areas will pick up 1″-2″ of rain by Friday morning. Both the NAM and GFS are all over this…


As I mentioned earlier… the Thursday storm continues to get stronger with each model run. A stronger storm throws the rest of the forecast cycle for a loop as it changes the whole dynamics of the weekend setup. The models are still trying to sort through it all… but even the European lost the Christmas Day storm with the latest run. Ironically… the GFS is getting close to having a storm again.

It’s still too early to pronounce this next system dead on arrival… but it’s on life support right now. The energy responsible for this system is just now getting into an area where the models can finally get a good sample of what they are dealing with.  #keephopealive

Your friendly weatherdude is a snow lover from November through January, so my window doesn’t have much time left. Old man winter had better do something before I throw the switch into March Madness and Spring Training mode.

 I will have updates as needed. Have a great Wednesday and take care.

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