Monthly Archives: December 2011

Time posted: 10:54 pm

Arctic Shot To Start The New Year

Good Wednesday evening gang. 2011 is going out on a rather tame note, while 2012 looks to ride into town on the arctic express. We have been highlighting this possibility for several days now and things appear to be right on track. What kind of snow will this bring our way? That’s still up in the air, but it should bring a heck of a snow shower and squall pattern if nothing else.

The GFS was the only model not showing a big trough in the east early next week, but it finally caved today…



It now matches what all other models have been saying for the past several days. The new European Model is even colder than any of it’s prior runs…



Folks, thats some cold stuff all the way deep into Florida! Taken verbatim, that’s one heck of a snow shower and squall pattern for Monday and Tuesday around here… especially with the Great Lakes being much warmer than normal.

A few days ago, I took a playful jab at the NWS in Jackson because their extended forecast discussions kept saying the European was wrong and had no support and that the GFS was the way to go. EVERY model has been supporting the European from day one and the GFS was the lone wolf in showing NO TROUGH.  The GFS looks almost identical to the European now.

This is from their morning discussion before the GFS flipped:

THE NEXT BIG ENIGMA IN THE EXTENDED COMES IN THE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY PERIOD AS THE GFS…THE LIKELY SOLUTION…DEVELOPS A BROAD
TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST AS A STRONG VORT MAX MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE…A VIGOROUS LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT STRETCHES SOUTH INTO THE GULF COAST.
THE FRONT EXITS THE COAST BY TUESDAY AND THIS IS THE PROGRESSIVE AND
MOST LIKELY SOLUTION AS THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE GFS AND EURO
SUPPORT THIS. THE MEMBERS OF THE NAO WOULD SUPPORT THIS AS WELL. THE
EURO HAS BEEN CONSISTENT BUT HAS NO SUPPORT FROM THE ENSEMBLES NOR
TELECONNECTIONS. IN THE EURO SOLUTION…A VERY DEEP AMPLIFIED TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY AND ALONG WITH IT…THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON. THE 28.00Z RUN OF THE EURO CONTINUES WITH THIS
SOLUTION AS WELL.

THEREFORE…AS STATED EARLIER…WILL SIDE WITH THE GFS.

I don’t even know where to start with that, so let’s move on to the afternoon discussion:

MODEL OUTPUT TAKEN AS A WHOLE DOES APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS A MORE SIMILAR SOLUTION…ESPECIALLYWITH THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF BECOMING MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS AMPLIFIED WITH ITS SOLUTION.

Let me get this straight… it’s the European that’s now changing? WHAT? It shows the deepest and coldest solution it’s shown yet. I will give them that it’s more progressive. But did you notice there was NO talk of the GFS undergoing a drastic change and looking identical to the European?

I think someone has a future in politics or public relations. Spinning the weather doesn’t work… trust me I know from experience. What’s gonna happen is gonna happen and there is nothing we can do to change it.

What are the odds we see some new names from the Breathitt County region leaving comments after this post? Just don’t leave your real e-mail addresses this time guys.

Have a great evening and take care.

28 Comments

Time posted: 6:55 am

A Quiet End To A Busy Year

Good Wednesday everyone and welcome to the middle of the work week. It’s a short week for many folks out there as we are sandwiched between Christmas and New Year’s. The weather looks to finish up the year on a calm note around here. Old Man Winter looks to wait until the clock strikes 2012 to shake things up a bit.

Today’s weather will feature a morning flurry that will be followed by some afternoon sunshine. High temps should be in the 30s east and 40s west.

A system will pass us by to the north on Thursday and this will allow for a breezy and milder day with readings well into the 40s to near 50.

Another system works across the Ohio Valley Friday night into early Saturday. This may get close enough to crank out a rain or snow shower before quickly moving on. This will leave us with a nice New Year’s Eve and Day as we await what looks to be a big plunge of cold air and possible snow early next week.

The pattern will feature an arctic cold front moving into town Late New Year’s Day into early Monday. This will have some very cold temps behind it and will likely have some snow. Will it have a wave of low pressure along it or will it fire up a big east coast storm? Both are possibilities at this point… but we are days away from knowing if that will happen.

The cold looks fairly certain, at this point.

European Model


Canadian Model





I will update things later today, so be sure to check back. Have a wonderful Wednesday and take care.

37 Comments

Time posted: 11:15 pm

Tuesday Evening Thoughts

Good evening everyone. Rain and snow have been rolling across the state today as low pressure pulls off to our northeast. Winds have been whipping up and now we get set for snow showers and flurries to kick in. Let’s break it down…

– Snow showers and flurries will increase this evening across central and eastern Kentucky as a disturbance drops in from the northwest. This will put down a coating in some areas with the potential for up to an inch for any area getting in on a heavier snow shower.

– Temps drop into the mid and upper 20s late tonight and this will cause some slick spots to develop on roads.

– Morning Flurries will give way to some afternoon sun and highs in the 30s for Wednesday.

Follow the action here…




Current Temps



We can now add Lexington to the list of record breaking rains. 2011 surged past 1935 to claim the title of Wetttest Year On Record!! #WERENUMBERONE

Where do we go from here? All models not named the GFS continue to point to a major buckle in the jet stream early next week. This would bring a serious shot of winter to the eastern half of the country.  The European Model…
 


The model goes on to then produce an extreme look with a mega cutoff low on top of us with a powerhouse storm in the mid atlantic…



The model has shown this exact same solution for the past several runs and has the Canadian Model playing the role of wing man…



That would be a heck of a way to kick off 2012! Both of those models then show another cutoff and storm for the end of next week. We have several days to see how all this plays out.

On a shorter term note… that same European is showing some rain and snow showers to begin the last day of the year…



Have a great evening and take care.

20 Comments

Time posted: 6:58 am

Tuesday Rain To Snow Tracker

Good Tuesday everyone. We’re getting set for a taste of winter today as rain switches to snow from west to east. This should be enough to put down light accumulations for  many areas as colder air rushes in. I have you set to track the transition from drops to flakes.

Here are a few thoughts on this system…

– Rain will be heavy at times early today. Some areas will pick up better than a half inch of water before the switch to snow. Today’s rain may be enough to push Lexington’s 2011 rainfall into the top spot for the wettest year on record.

– Rain will mix with and change to snow across the west this morning and that transition will reach eastern Kentucky by early evening as temps fall into the low and mid 30s.

– A lot of the snow that falls during the daylight hours will have to fight a wet ground, so expect a lot of melting. There will be some bands of snow that will be able to produce rates to overcome the wet ground and will give light accumulations to some.

– Keep an eye on areas along and near the Ohio River from Owensboro toward Covington. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some folks here get in on a slushy inch or two on elevated surfaces. The rest of the state could get a grassy coating to MAYBE a slushy inch today.

– Northwesterly winds this evening and overnight will produce widespread snow showers across central and eastern Kentucky. Another coating to MAYBE an inch would be possible during this time. Temps hitting the 20s will mean some slick spots will develop on area roads.

Let’s track today’s weather…




Current Temps



Rainfall Since Midnight




I will have updates later today and will send out some quick thoughts via twitter. Help us out by posting the weather conditions where you live.

Have a great Tuesday and take care.

60 Comments

Time posted: 10:55 pm

Monday Evening Update

Good Monday evening gang. Snow is on the way to the bluegrass state as we head into Tuesday and Tuesday night. This is all in response to a storm system rolling out of the south and up the east coast over the next few days.

Rain will develop overnight and will continue into early Tuesday before mixing with and changing to snow as cold air quickly dives in. Light accumulating snows are a good bet for much of the state in the afternoon and evening. There is likely to be a band of moderate to heavy snow working eastward behind the low. This is the ‘deformation zone’ area I talked about over the weekend and this is something for us to watch. Areas getting under this can pick up a quick inch or two of slushy snow.

Northwesterly winds will set in Tuesday night and early Wednesday with snow showers and flurries bringing another chance for a light accumulation across the eastern half of the state.This may even get a little push from Lake Michigan and you can actually see that on the last panel of the NAM…

The GFS Ensembles are very similar…

I will get a snow map out with the overnight update. Temps will dip into the 20s by Wednesday morning and that should cause some slick spots to develop on area roads.

Looking down the road we find a major trough digging into the eastern half of the country as we start the new year. This should provide a heck of a blast of cold with several snow chances next week.

European Model

Canadian Model

Every model is all over a deep trough across the east next week. Every model not named the GFS, that is. The model only shows it every other run… but it’s the GFS. I read a discussion from NWS in Jackson calling the European the outlier with no support from any other model. If by any other model they mean the GFS then they are correct. The GFS is actually the outlier with no support period. Well… every other run of the GFS, anyway. Confused yet? Good… that’s how I like it.

I will have a full update later tonight. Until then… track the rain into town…

Have a great evening and take care.

14 Comments