Monthly Archives: December 2011

Good evening gang. Anyone else hearing that noise? Shhh… listen quietly. You can hear that loud chorus of other folks now talking about the possibility of some snow this Christmas weekend. Hard to believe we actually have the chance for Christmas snow with a taste of spring in the air right now.

I really have no changes from my thoughts from the past several days on how the weekend plays out. The European Model continues to hold a steady hand with a Christmas into Monday storm system.



If we take that model at face value it would mean rain and snow changing to snow Christmas Day with backlash light snow into Monday. Is the model right? It has been steady as a rock with the overall theme of a Christmas storm and this is the model you want leading the pack.

The poor GFS continues to be wretched beyond belief. It runs 4 times a day and never shows a similar solution.

I still cannot say you are going to have a white Christmas. I do think many areas will see flakes flying at some point this weekend. Can we get a track to give us accumulating snows? It’s possible and that’s something I will be closely following over the next few days.

Our short term weather is mild and wet. You could even hear some thunder later tonight into Wednesday as a cold front swings in. There is enough wind energy upstairs that any strong shower or storm could tap some of this and create gusty winds. Temps will head toward the low 60s.

Another wet weather maker crashes the party on Thursday. This system will have heavy rains to go along with chilly temps in the 40s.

A Full update will be on later tonight and I will be tweeting some updated thoughts. Take care.

Good Tuesday to one and all. If you were planning on a quiet holiday travel period… you may want to star over as mother nature is loaded with fast moving systems that will impact our region and much of the country. This sets the stage for heavy rain over the next few days with the potential for wintry conditions in time for Christmas weekend.

Let’s start with today and work forward. Low pressure is moving in from the southwest and will cross the Ohio Valley late tonight and early Wednesday. Showers will increase out there today… especially in the afternoon and evening hours.

Follow the drops…



Rain will increase overnight and early tomorrow and I can’t rule out a rumble of thunder in some cases. Winds should also be on the gusty side as temps spike well into the 50s today and Wednesday. A 60 is possible. 

This storm will work to our northeast on Wednesday as cooler air moves in. Our drying trend won’t last long as a compact, but soaker of a storm develops to our southwest early Thursday. Heavy rain will overspread the region and carry us into Thursday night. Rainfall of 1″-2″ will be possible through Friday morning.
 
It’s at this point things begin to take on a much more wintry look. Colder air slowly slides in from the northwest. I have been harping on the dual system idea now for several days and the models are going toward my thoughts. One system works through and just to our south Friday with another, more important storm impacting Christmas Day into Monday.

The European Model has the Friday wave of low pressure along the Tennessee Valley with a cold rain or a mix of some rain and snow close to us. The model then jumps toward the bigger storm idea with low pressure developing across the Gulf Christmas Eve and lifting northward along the coast Christmas Day…



It also shows another system diving in from the northwest Christmas Night into Monday. The above maps would put us in play for some snow. Again… i’m just breaking down what the map is showing.

The GFS has been slowly coming around to more of a storm idea… though it does have timing and phasing issues compared to the European…



I am not to the point that I can say for sure that it will snow where you live this weekend. I can only tell you it is certainly an increasing option. To what extent remains to be seen and that’s something that should become more clear in another day or so.
 
Regardless… the weather for Christmas weekend looks anything but mild and dry like some of you guys were promised from 9 days away. No… I’m not tired of saying that yet. haha

Updates will come your way later today. Have a good Tuesday and take care.

Good evening gang. I wanted to drop by for an update on the hyper active weather pattern kicking off as we head into Christmas week and weekend. Rain is leading the short term charge before we get into a pattern more conducive for some wintry stuff in time for the big day.

Rain is quickly working across the northern part of the state this evening. This is in response to some milder air surging in from the southwest ahead of a blizzard across the southwestern states. Follow the rains here…



That same storm will roll into town Tuesday night and Wednesday with an increase in rain for everyone. Thunder? It’s possible. Rain will taper off by Wednesday night.

That moment of dry weather won’t last long as another system quickly develops on Thursday and rolls in from the southwest. This wasn’t even showing up on the models a few days ago and when it finally showed up… it was rather wimpy. Each run today ramped this system up even more and show it farther west into our region with widespread heavy rain.

Look at the totals through Thursday…



Are you really shocked to see another heavy rain event? Didn’t think so.

Back to the point I was making about the models from earlier. They are still playing catch up on the system that’s only a few days out, so there is no way they are going to be able to forecast how this weekend plays out. You will see them flip and flop from run to run. That’s always the case, but it is REALLY magnified this year.

I was going to break down some of the latest runs for the weekend… but it’s really pointless for me to keep doing so with each update because of the differing solutions.

I have no changes in my thought process… one system later Friday into Christmas Eve with the possibility for something else Christmas Day or Monday. Each will have the potential for some snow and wintry weather. Stay tuned!

Have a great evening and take care.

Good Monday and welcome to a busy week of weather leading up to Christmas. I don’t think the pattern can get more active as we have, at least, 3 systems we will be tracking over the next several days. Yes… there is likely a wintry aspect to all this as we head into Christmas weekend. To what extent is the big question.

Our weather in the short term is about to take a walk on the wet side. Clouds will be on the increase today as a major storm gets going across the southwestern states. This storm will bring a blizzard to areas from New Mexico to Kansas.

We’re on the mild side of this bad boy as temps head into the 50s through early Wednesday. Showers will increase this evening across parts of the west and north with rain increasing for everyone Tuesday into Wednesday.

Chilly air then works in later Wednesday and sets the stage for some cold rain for Thursday as our active pattern really kicks into high gear.

We have a deep trough slowly working in from the west and northwest for the end of the week and into the weekend. There are several disturbances diving into the base of this trough and these are hard to time. The first one looks to move in Thursday with light rain. The next comes later Friday into Christmas Eve  and will bring rain or snow or a combo of the two as the cold air continues to sink in here.

It’s at this point that EVERY model agrees on a storm developing late this Christmas weekend. We have the usual timing issues… but the track on this storm is very similar on each model and they all have us on the cold side of things with a snow threat.

Here’s a sample of the latest runs…

GFS


GFS Ensembles


Canadian


European Christmas Eve


Here are some thoughts about the models and the setup in general…

- There are so many disturbances on the playing field it’s going to make for model flips as they key on different disturbances at different times. They may try to blow up one of the earlier systems instead of the Christmas one, for instance.

- There is currently model consensus on a Christmas weekend storm and snow threat for our region. That doesn’t mean this won’t change in the coming days… but that’s where the models are right now. What they are showing fits the pattern we have been talking about for several days.

- I am not saying you’re going to have a white Christmas. I am telling you that you DO have a chance at seeing snow over the Christmas weekend.

- One things for sure… the pattern does not look mild and dry like some have promised you for Christmas.

I will have more updates later today. Have a great Monday and take care.

Good Sunday evening folks. It’s a nice weekend wrapping up across the region as temps come up a few degrees under a gorgeous sky. The week ahead will turn wet as we focus our attention on the potential for wintry weather into Christmas weekend.

I have been banging the drum on two potential systems impacting our weather over the holiday weekend. One on Friday and another later Christmas Day into the following day. The forecast models are now all sniffing this out, but they differ on how the whole situation evolves.

The new GFS has a massive storm system coming from the Gulf of Mexico Christmas Day into next Monday and would certainly put us in line for snow.

The European Model has decided to take things a step further as it keeps a stalled out front just to our south from Friday through early next week. That allows for waves of low pressure to work along the boundary giving us mix and snow chances each day.

European Model

The model then brings a big storm out of the Gulf early next week…



That is likely too slow with the storm as the European has a serious tendency to hold energy in the southwest back too long.

I’m not saying this run is right or that you will have a white christmas by any means… but something like it fits the pattern I have been talking about and puts us in the ball game. It is definitely something for us to watch as we go forward. Think those folks who are promising you a mild and dry Christmas weekend are sweating right about now?

Enjoy the rest of your Sunday and take care.

Good Sunday everyone. I don’t have a ton of time for this post and will have another update coming your way later today. I still wanted to get in here and give you some updated thoughts on the Christmas week of weather that’s ahead of us.

The breakdown…

- Highs on this Sunday will range from the low and mid 40s for most areas under a partly to mostly sunny sky.

- Clouds and temps increase on Monday as readings head closer to 50. A couple of showers may arrive by Monday night.

- Low pressure works from Texas into the Ohio Valley Tuesday into Wednesday and this will bring widespread rain back to the region. This rain may end as a touch of a mix by late Wednesday as temps fall. This same storm will create some major travel headaches over the next few days across the plains. Look at the snowfall outlook for some of those areas…



Road trip to Kansas?

- Christmas weekend around here should still feature two systems impacting the region. One on Friday and another late Christmas Day into the following Day. Either can bring SOME snow to us. That certainly doesn’t mean they will… but the models continue to advertise the possibility. The GFS Ensembles likes the Christmas Day one…



Again… we shall see. It does give us something to track in the days leading up to the BIG day.

Another update will come your way later today, so check back. Have a great Sunday and take care.

Good Saturday evening everyone. I promised to drop by for an update and I’m a weatherdude of my word. The weather through the middle of the week looks to play out according to plan, so there is no reason to get into all that.

You guys want to know about Christmas weekend and my thoughts have not changed. We are likely to have two systems impacting our region. The first comes on Friday as a cold front works in from the northwest and tries to crank up low pressure to our east. The operational models are doing their usual flip and flop routine and that’s why I’m riding the GFS Ensembles…



The second system to watch may drop in on Christmas Day into the next day…



Those are two systems for us to track as we head into the big week ahead and that’s exactly what we will do here on the blog. Again… I am not saying you are getting snow for Christmas. Just pointing out the pattern may give you a couple of chances over the holiday weekend.

A full update comes your way later tonight. I also want to say something people just don’t say enough of anymore… Merry Christmas!

Take care.

Good Saturday everybody. Many areas got in on some light sleet and light snow on Friday and this put an end to the spring fling we had been in. We have a seasonably cold weekend in store for the region as we look ahead toward the prospects for some snow for Christmas.

Let’s break it down headline style…

- Temps today will generally run in the upper 30s for highs with a mix of sun and clouds. There is a weak disturbance working across the northern Ohio Valley tonight that could throw a few flurries into northern and eastern Kentucky. Play find the flakes on regional radar…



- Sunday will start cold with temps in the low and mid 20s. Sunshine will help boost our temps into the 40s for highs.

- Clouds and temps will be on the increase by Monday as a storm gathers strength to our southwest. Highs will head toward the upper 40s and lower 50s.

- Showers work in on Tuesday as the low pressure works into the Ohio Valley. Temps will hit the low and mid 50s as our winds pick up.

- This low will slowly lift out of here later Wednesday as colder air rushes in from the northwest. This has a shot to end the rain as a bit of a mix.

- The overall pattern for the end of next week into Christmas weekend will feature a deep trough being carved out across the eastern half of the country. I have spent the past several days showing you various computer forecast models all showing the same thing. There is likely to be some kind of storm developing on Friday of next week and this could bring some snow in here.

The GFS is even picking up on it…



I’m only showing you the GFS to illustrate the fact there could be a wintry scenario playing out just in time for Christmas weekend. I cannot tell you if it will be white where you live… I can tell you I really like the pattern I’m seeing from a week away. It’s not just one model showing cold and snow chances… it’s all of them.

A couple more things on next weekend…

- I wonder if we can get an upper low to close off over the area?

- There’s the potential for two systems to bring us snow chances. One Friday into early Saturday and another arriving Christmas day into the following day.

- It’s a cold look for a lot of the country Christmas weekend into the final week of the year.

As always… let’s see how all this plays out over the next several days. I will have another update later today, so check back. Have a great Saturday and take care.

Good Friday evening everybody. Many areas have picked up on a wintry mix today as light sleet, snow and rain worked across the state. Is any of this a sign of the pattern leading up to Christmas? I have a few thoughts I will share in a bit.

The mix out there now will continue across the eastern half of the state before tapering off late this evening. Temps are going to slowly fall into the low 30s with mid and upper 20s on tap later tonight.

Follow along here…

Current Temps






Christmas week thoughts:

- A storm forming across the southwestern US will lift northeastward into the Ohio Valley late Tuesday into Wednesday. This is likely a rain maker for Tuesday, though some models suggest a mix to start. Some colder air filters in for Wednesday with the rain ending as a mix or some snow.

- There continues to be a very strong signal for a trough digging in across the eastern half of the country for Christmas Weekend. There is also the chance for a storm to kick things off for next Friday. This has been well advertised on the models for a while now. The Canadian continues to show the cold and storm…



- The forecast models also show other systems diving into the cold trough right on through Christmas Day.

- I am not saying you are going to have a White Christmas. I am saying the pattern for Christmas weekend is one that can certainly give you some snow and cold temps. The Canadian Ensembles and the GFS Ensembles have shown this for more than a week and now other models are going in that same direction.

- I am hearing that a lot of my fellow tv weather dudes and dudettes are already promising you no snow for Christmas. That’s a heck of a forecast from 9 days away! Anyone giving you an exact forecast for snow or no snow from 9 days out is silly. If I came on here and promised you a White Christmas from 9 days away… I would even make fun of myself. Same goes for those who are promising you won’t have snow from 9 days away.

A full update comes your way tonight. Have a great evening and take care.

Good Friday everyone. There is an old saying about what a difference a day makes and it’s certainly appropriate when describing our weather out there today. Thursday brought temps in the 60s with March like winds and now mother nature is smacking us back into reality with some rain and snow.

Temps today are going to be some 25-30 degrees colder than where we were 24 hours ago as most areas stay in the upper 30s for highs. This cold air is behind a front that’s putting the brakes on just to our south. Low pressure is working along the boundary and is throwing moisture back into much of the region… especially along and south of Interstate 64.

Light rain increases from the southwest today and will gradually mix with and even change to a period of light snow this afternoon and early evening. Check out how some of the forecast models see the precipitation type playing out today…

GFS


NAM


Much of this will fall as light rain into early afternoon with some snow mixing in before a transition to wet snow by mid afternoon. Much of what falls should be melting, but it may snow just hard enough for a light accumulation on elevated surfaces in a few spots.

Again… most of the precipitation will fall along and south of I-64. Track it all…

Current Temps






The mix will quickly end this evening with temps dropping into the upper 20s by Saturday morning. Saturday should see highs mainly in the upper 30s and I am keeping an eye on a disturbance dropping in from the northwest. This may cause a few flurries in the north and east by Saturday night.

All eyes will then turn toward the next storm on the menu for Tuesday and Wednesday. The models all handle this differently as a few show a relatively weak storm, while others blow it up into something bigger. Odds strongly favor this bringing rain for Tuesday with the chance for colder air and a switch to a mix of snow on Wednesday.

Ironically… most of the models are in better agreement for Christmas Weekend and that’s a good thing for those wanting a White Christmas. A nice trough swings in for the middle and end of next week allowing for a possible storm to get going by Friday. The models all show this to our east right now and give us a shot at some snow.

The GFS is even coming around to showing this system…



The GFS Ensembles have been all over the Christmas Weekend potential for a while now as they have been giving a strong signal.

The Canadian Model has also been signalling this for a while and continues to do so…



As always… we shall see.

I will have updates on today’s rain and snow as needed here on the blog and via twitter. Have a great Friday and take care.