Daily Archives: January 11, 2012
Good Wednesday evening everyone. Things continue to progress nicely toward a significant blast of wintry weather later Thursday into Friday as an arctic front slams through the state. This will cause all kinds of travel issues from west to east during the afternoon and evening hours.
Kudos to the NWS offices in Jackson, Louisville and Paducah for getting a Winter Weather Advisory up a running a day ahead. Here’s a look at the counties included…
Folks across northern and northeastern Kentucky have no reason to fret… you should be included in an advisory before all is said and done. The NWS offices in Wilmington, Ohio and Charleston, WV. are napping.
This is a high travel impact system moving in over the next few days. Here are some updated thoughts…
- The arctic front sweeps in from west to east Thursday. This boundary will clear the state around sundown.
- Temps will spike into the 40s to near 50 ahead of the front and drop some 20-30 degrees in just a few hours once the front passes. Most areas will be in the upper teens and low 20s by late Thursday evening.
- A band of snow will be right behind the front and this band will bring moderate to heavy bursts at times. Travel conditions will quickly go downhill as the flakes start flying.
- Widespread snow showers and squalls will then carry us through Thursday night into Friday.
- Let’s blanket the entire state with a general 1″-3″ of snowfall during this time. Locally higher amounts are more than possible for areas getting in on the bursts of heavier snows.
- Winds will be a big time player as gusts range from 30-40mph Thursday evening into early Friday. This will create blowing snow and white out conditions at times. Wind chills may go below zero.
- A clipper will arrive late Saturday into early Sunday and should have a swath of accumulating snow setting up. I will fine tune that setup as we get closer.
I want to stress, this is going to have a major impact on travel conditions across the entire region late Thursday through Friday. It’s not a major snowfall, but the impact is going to cause a lot of issues.
Be honest… how many of you are doing a snow dance right now? I’m looking at you, teachers.
More updates as needed and I will use twitter to send out some quick thoughts on things. Have a great evening and take care.
Good Wednesday everyone. It’s a wet day across the bluegrass state and we may even hear some rumbles of thunder before all is said and done. The touch of March weather is about to give way to a heck of a blast of winter over the next several days as things continue to look more and more wintry as we head into Thursday and Friday. Buckle those seatbelts!
Low pressure is working across the region today and this system will continue to pump up the moisture. Heavy rains of 1″ to as much as 2″ will be possible through Tonight. There’s even enough instability for a few thundershowers to develop as our temps make a run into the 50s for some areas. Winds may gust up as the low works through here.
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The big change comes our way on Thursday as an arctic front swings through here. This is going to be a wild day of weather as potent upper low swings eastward across the Ohio Valley. The GFS is finally up to snuff with this bad boy. Check this out…
That’s a ton of energy and lift working through here. Those little disturbances rotating around the closed low will all act to keep the flakes flying. Look at how much wetter and colder that same run of the GFS is…
The NAM looks almost identical to the GFS with the upper level closed low. It’s even colder and also shows plenty of moisture hanging around for a long time…
What does all that mean for the actual weather? Here’s a breakdown…
- The arctic front moves quickly from west to east Thursday, reaching eastern Kentucky by early evening. A few rain showers will be ahead of the front, but the majority of the precipitation falls behind the boundary as snow.
- Temps will spike toward 50 degrees ahead of the arctic front and drop some 20-25 degrees within an hour or two of the front passing through where you live.
- An intense band of snow is likely behind this front and should increase in coverage as it works eastward into Thursday evening. This may cause some travel issues.
- Widespread light snow and snow squalls will then kick in Thursday night and carry us through Friday and likely into early Saturday. I fully expect accumulating snow for most of the state, with this likely having a high impact on road conditions. How much snow? Not for sure just yet… but it does have a 1″-3″ look to it with the possibility of more for some areas. That’s not my forecast just yet… just some thoughts. I will have a first call for snowfall map out later today.
- Winds are going to be a major factor as gusts hit 30mph or greater. The feel like temps may go below zero at times Thursday night and Friday.
- Actual temps will plummet into the teens Thursday night and then struggle to get out of the low 20s Friday. Some areas may not get much past 20 for highs. We’re back into the low and mid teens by Saturday morning.
- A clipper is likely to move in late Saturday into Sunday and may have a swath of accumulating snow with it. We will have to see exactly where that sets up.
This is pretty much following the script I put out there several days ago and that’s always good to see. I will update my thoughts as we get closer to the blast of winter and things become just a touch clearer. I don’t anticipate very many changes.
Updates coming later today, so check back. Have a great Wednesday and take care.