Monthly Archives: November 2012

Time posted: 8:07 pm

Friday Evening Quickie

Good Friday evening, folks. I wanted to drop by for some quick thoughts as we say goodbye to November. Things continue to progress nicely toward the ideas I’ve been yapping about for a while. A winter pattern looks to kick in during the… wait for it… wait for it… December 7th-14th period.

In the short term… it’s mild and windy. We should also see a shower or two by Sunday and early Monday.

A cold front swings in here on Tuesday and will have a wall of water along it. Gusty rains and a clap of thunder will work eastward across the state…

That’s a quick shot of cold diving in behind the front for Wednesday. That shot gets booted out of here very quickly because a stronger front arrives by the following Friday or Saturday. The GFS likes Friday…

The middle and end of December has a very interesting look to it.

Have a great evening and take care.

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Time posted: 2:03 am

Tracking Early December Changes

Good Friday to one and all. November is wrapping up and we are ready to dive into the start of meteorological winter on Saturday. The first few days of December will be on the mild side across the bluegrass state, but things could be changing sooner rather than later. 

Thanks to all those who played “What winter am I?”. The answer to that question… (insert drum roll)…. the winter of 1995/96. The mild numbers from my last post all came from that blockbuster winter across Kentucky and much of the eastern part of the country. This winter may or may not turn out anything like that one, but I did find a November correlation to that year. Lexington has had 19 days of 32 degrees or below this November and that’s the most since 1995 produced 20. If we look at the numbers since 1970… only 1995 and 1976 featured more November days below freezing.

I don’t know if any of that is a precursor of things to come this winter, but I don’t think you guys realize the amount of number crunching I actually do. (Cue the violin ;))

Speaking of numbers… they are going up over the next several days. Highs today will hit the 50s with a mix of sun and clouds. We will flirt with 60 Saturday under a partly cloudy sky. Moisture will increase by Sunday and this will lead to scattered showers that take us into early Monday. These show up well on the simulated NAM radar: 

Temps during this time will likely warm into the low 60s, but clouds and showers may knock those down a bit for some areas.

 A cold front enters the picture early Tuesday and this will bring a line of gusty showers across the state. Temps will come way down behind the front, but that won’t last long as it gets shoved through here pretty quickly. Why is that happening? Because the models are now speeding up the change to winter and slam another system in here by next Friday or Saturday.

The overall pattern is in the process of cleaning itself up. The west coast into the Gulf of Alaska looks to become MUCH more favorable in time. Take a look at the deep trough up there this weekend and how it gets replaced by a big ridge…

As that ridge balloons along the west coast, a deep trough is carved out across much of the country. That trough opens the floodgates allowing very cold air from Canada to dive our way. The new Canadian Model is also on board with that configuration by next weekend…

That falls toward the beginning of my December 7th-14 period of change. We’ll see how it all evolves in the coming days.

All of that may be a lead up toward some interesting weather just in time for Christmas. The CFS model says a White Christmas is possible to a lot of people across the country…

 I will update things later today. Make it a great Friday and take care.

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Time posted: 7:34 pm

Let’s Play A Game

Good evening gang. With December and the start of meteorological winter just around the corner, I thought it would be fun to play a little game. Let’s call it: “What winter am I?”. It’s time to fire up the DeLorean and take a trip back in time to find the winter I’m talking about.

Here are your clues…

– High temps for the first 5 days of December: 60,61,55,50 and 53.

– December 13-16th high temps: 51,64,57 and 50

– January 14-18 high temps: 50,46,51,60,69

– Some high temps from February: 50,51,66,51,57,61,60,79,60,64 and 68

So, if you only had those numbers to go by, would you take a repeat of that and everything that happened in between for the winter ahead?

Think about that one before you answer… this could be a setup. 😉

Now, put your detective hat on and see if you can come up with the winter I’m talking about. I’ll give you guys the answer with my overnight update. Don’t forget to make sure your Flux Capacitor is… well… fluxing…

Have a safe trip and take care.

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Time posted: 3:25 am

Upcoming Mild Spell Won’t Last Long

Good Thursday everyone and thanks for checking in on KWC. We have another very cold and frosty start to the day across Kentucky. The much talked about mild spell is just about ready to kick in, but it’s days are numbered and that number continues to come down.

Low and mid 20s with a thick frost will greet folks out the door this morning. Sunny skies will boost our temps close to 50 degrees by the afternoon hours. This is a sign of things to come as we slowly crank thermometers up a little bit at a time over the weekend.

Friday will see highs warming into the mid and high 50s with dry weather holding on. A few more clouds will get in here Saturday and there could be a late day shower popping up. Temps will make a run toward 60 then and will likely hit the low 60s Sunday into Monday. An increase in clouds and scattered showers may act to keep thermometers from reaching those high numbers for some.

This brings us to Tuesday and that’s when a strong cold front looks to cross the state. The models are really speeding up the arrival of this front and that means one less day of the really mild temps. Showers and a rumble of thunder should sweep eastward during the day as gusty winds crank along and behind the boundary.

The GFS Ensemble Mean shows this faster movement…

The Canadian Model also supports the faster front…

There is likely to be a 20- 30 degree temp drop from one side of this front to the other. Gusty winds and chilly temps will then hang around for Wednesday and Thursday.

 As I’ve mentioned several times before, that shot of cold will move through pretty quickly as we await the next push of cold by late the following weekend into early the next week. This falls in the December 7th-14th time period I’ve been highlighting for much more of a wintry push of weather moving in at some point.

The European Model opens up the floodgates from Canada…

That’s still a long time off, but I do expect a push like that to take place at some point during the window I have been yapping about.

I will have another update late today. Have a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 7:58 pm

Wednesday Evening Update

Good Wednesday evening. I wanted to drop by for some updated thoughts on how things are looking for next week. We have a pretty big change coming up over the next 7 days and this leads into a wintry setup.

Temps over the next several days will warm into the 50s and then hit the 60s late weekend into early next week. A couple of showers will be possible this weekend as clouds increase.

A strong cold front looks to have a ticket for the bluegrass state by the time we hit Tuesday night. This front swings through here and may drop our temps by more than 30 degrees in less than 24 hours. Some of the models also suggest a thunder to snowflake scenario…

That’s the GFS and it has actually been leading the charge with this cold shot and other models are now coming around to a similar scenario.

Those same models are also going toward a bigger shot of cold air diving in here by the following weekend…

Check out that air moving out of southern Canada and diving southward. I continue to highlight the December 7th-14th period for a big, big change toward winter around here and for much of the eastern half of the country.

Enjoy the evening and take care.

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