Monthly Archives: December 2012

Time posted: 6:43 pm

New Year’s Eve Update

Happy New Year!! We continue to track snow, sleet and light rain across the bluegrass state as we close out 2012. This stuff will increase as we roll through the evening into the overnight hours and will likely create some slick travel for some areas.

Here’s my latest thinking…

Snowfall

Southeastern Kentucky has a chance to pick up a little light snow late tomorrow into tomorrow night and that is something else to watch out for.

For my Lexington folks… The NWS in Louisville says at 7am there was only a Trace of snow on the ground. Ummm… try 1-2″ everywhere I look. What say you?

Happy New Year and take care.

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Time posted: 1:52 am

Tracking Another Storm To End 2012

Good Monday and Happy New Year! We are wrapping up a wild year of weather on a very wintry note as we track our third winter storm in a week. This storm is going to bring another round of snow, mix and rain to the bluegrass state and figuring out where those lines set up will be the challenge of the day.

Today will be another day of nowcasting the system moving into the state as some areas will be walking the fine line between snow and the mix. Some quick thoughts:

– Western parts of the state may get in on a touch of light snow early today. That should then taper off a bit as we go through the afternoon.

– The radar today will have more bark than bite as it should show a lot of snow that’s not reaching the ground.

– A wave of low pressure develops to our south and works eastward to our south. Moisture will slowly increase later this evening and overnight and last into New Year’s Day.

– The NAM has a colder profile than the GFS, but the GFS is much wetter than the NAM. If you could get those two to combine, you would have a nice little snowstorm. Regardless… I think the GFS is a bit too wet and has too much of a warm layer aloft.

– Here is a rough outline of what I’m expecting to happen in terms of precipitation type…

Special

– Areas that are mainly snow could pick up 1″- 3″. Any mixing of sleet or freezing rain where you live will cut down on those totals.

– As I said earlier, this will be another one to nowcast so I can see exactly how the temps today and tonight are playing out and then adjust accordingly.

– I expect moisture to linger into Tuesday night across southern and southeastern Kentucky and that should turn to mostly snow. That may be enough to put down some light accumulations in those areas.

I will have updates later today. Happy New Year and take care.

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Time posted: 8:13 pm

Sunday Evening Quickie

Good Sunday evening, gang.  I wasn’t going to update until I checked my twitter feed and found so many of you asking for something new on here. You guys are convincing! 😉 For the areas with snow on the ground, today was a gorgeous winter day. Temps were cold and there wasn’t much snow melt and that will ensure us a white New Year. The question is… can we put some snow on top of snow and give some of the white stuff to those who have a bare ground? The answer is yes and probably so.

Speaking of the snow vs. no with our last storm. You can see the snowpack showing up on this visible satellite shot from earlier today…

Snow SatThat shows the sharp cutoff very well and illustrates just how difficult a job it is to forecast where that line sets up.

Ok… how about the storm system moving in for New Year’s Eve and Day. I’m looking at the models and looking at the setup and I don’t think the models have the best handle on this thing. There’s a decent chance this ends up being a little bigger event than is being advertised and that will be something to keep an eye on overnight into Monday.

As of now… light snow will break out from west to east Monday afternoon and evening. Initially, the radar will be more bark than bite until we can saturate the lowest levels. A wave of low pressure passes by to the south into New Year’s Day. This should send a swath of accumulating snows eastward across the northern half of the state with more of a mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and some rain in the south. This could get awfully messy across the entire state.

As that low pushes off to the east… don’t be surprised if it leaves enough moisture behind for leftover snow across southern and southeastern parts of the state by New Year’s night.

I will get you guys a first call map later tonight. Enjoy the evening and thank your twitter pressure for this update. 🙂 Take care.

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Time posted: 1:10 am

Tracking Our Next Round Of Snow

Good Sunday everyone. I know I promised you guys another update yesterday, but your friendly weatherdude had to just chill out and cool the jets for a few hours. It’s been a busy few weeks as this pattern has really ramped up with snow and cold and that’s what we have coming up as we say hello to 2013.

We have a very cold Sunday taking shape with high temps in the upper 20s to low 30s. Breezy conditions will make it feel even colder. A few snow flurries or snow showers will hang tough across the east early today. The clouds try to break up a bit for many areas during the afternoon.

A cold front works in from the northwest on Monday as moisture increases from the Gulf of Mexico. This will cause light snow to break out for much of the state during the afternoon and evening hours. That action would then continue into the first day of 2013. Here’s a look at the juice coming from the GFS Ensembles…

GFS 2

That is likely to lay down a swath of accumulating snow from west to east across the state. How much is still in question and there’s also the question of a mix for the south. I think the models are doing the same thing they did this last time and are a shade too warm with the temps. For areas that are straight snow… a couple of inches would be a good bet.

Some of the models have been hinting at another system working just to our south by the end of next week…GFS 3 We will have to see about that one, but it’s worth keeping an eye on.

This active and wintry pattern shows no real signs of letting up through the first few weeks of January. Enjoy your Sunday and take care.

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Time posted: 6:18 am

Early Saturday Thoughts

Good Saturday to one and all. The latest winter storm to strike the bluegrass state will quickly work on out of town this morning. Snowfall totals range from 1″-5″ across many of the areas we had been highlighting for snow. This was one of the wettest snows I’ve seen in a long while. It will quickly compact out there today.

We aren’t done with the flakes yet and those that missed out on the storm will get in on the action later today. A stout little disturbance will work southeastward into the state this afternoon and evening. Winds will pick up and temps will take a dive as snow showers and squalls become widespread across central and eastern Kentucky.

Accumulations will be a good bet with a lot of one inch or less snow across central Kentucky. Locally higher amounts will be possible across eastern and southeastern parts of the state. It could get pretty nasty again during the late afternoon and early evening hours.

Here’s regional radar to find the flakes…

Temps tonight will drop into the teens as skies slowly clear out. Highs will only hit the upper 20s and low 30s for Sunday as we await the next system to impact the state.

That moves in for New Year’s Eve and Day and should bring a swath of accumulating snows back into the bluegrass state. There could also be a zone of ice and a mix and that’s something for us to keep watch on.

I will have an update later today. For now… it’s finally off to bed I go after a 16 hour work day.

Happy Saturday and take care.

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