Daily Archives: December 4, 2012

Time posted: 8:08 pm

Update On The Change Ahead

Good Tuesday evening, gang. A strong cold front is now sweeping across the state and this is leading to showers and some thunder. Winds are gusting up as temps take a dive behind the boundary. All of this leads us into a very active pattern and the transition into winter starting next week.

The models continue to be all over the place with how to handle a stalled out front and a series of lows moving across the region this weekend. I said several days ago they wouldn’t get a handle on it until we got within two or three days. That’s exactly what will happen because EVERY model shows something different from its last run.

It looks like a few waves of low pressure will work across the region this weekend with rounds of rain. Some of that could be locally heavy. The last in the lows is likely to crank up and become the strongest of the bunch. That low continues to trend farther east on the models. The European Model:

The GFS has also shifted east with the 18z run…

To put the GFS shift in perspective, the prior run of that model had us in the 60s with thunderstorms on Monday. Moral of the story is you can’t take one run of any model and make a forecast from it. The latest GFS Ensembles mean went colder and east as well…

Regardless… do you see the cold air diving in behind each of those models? It really doesn’t matter as to what track that storm takes… it’s going to get much colder next week as the overall weather pattern goes toward winter.

I don’t see how anyone could question this pattern change. It will look NOTHING like the pattern of this week and is one that will usher in winter for the middle and end of the month.

And to clear something up… I don’t ready any other blogs or check out any other forecasts. I just don’t and never have. It’s not my style to worry about what other tv people or private weather people are saying. The only way I know what people are saying is by what you guys leave in the comments.

I will have a full update later tonight. Have a great evening and take care.