Daily Archives: December 4, 2012

Time posted: 8:08 pm

Update On The Change Ahead

Good Tuesday evening, gang. A strong cold front is now sweeping across the state and this is leading to showers and some thunder. Winds are gusting up as temps take a dive behind the boundary. All of this leads us into a very active pattern and the transition into winter starting next week.

The models continue to be all over the place with how to handle a stalled out front and a series of lows moving across the region this weekend. I said several days ago they wouldn’t get a handle on it until we got within two or three days. That’s exactly what will happen because EVERY model shows something different from its last run.

It looks like a few waves of low pressure will work across the region this weekend with rounds of rain. Some of that could be locally heavy. The last in the lows is likely to crank up and become the strongest of the bunch. That low continues to trend farther east on the models. The European Model:

The GFS has also shifted east with the 18z run…

To put the GFS shift in perspective, the prior run of that model had us in the 60s with thunderstorms on Monday. Moral of the story is you can’t take one run of any model and make a forecast from it. The latest GFS Ensembles mean went colder and east as well…

Regardless… do you see the cold air diving in behind each of those models? It really doesn’t matter as to what track that storm takes… it’s going to get much colder next week as the overall weather pattern goes toward winter.

I don’t see how anyone could question this pattern change. It will look NOTHING like the pattern of this week and is one that will usher in winter for the middle and end of the month.

And to clear something up… I don’t ready any other blogs or check out any other forecasts. I just don’t and never have. It’s not my style to worry about what other tv people or private weather people are saying. The only way I know what people are saying is by what you guys leave in the comments.

I will have a full update later tonight. Have a great evening and take care.

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Time posted: 3:14 am

A Busy Pattern Setting Up

Good Tuesday, folks. We have a cold front working across the state today and this front will do more than usher in rain and cooler temps. It’s the first of many systems to impact our weather over the next few weeks as the pattern becomes very active and leads us into the start of winter.

Let’s break down the short term before getting to the big change.

– Showers will become widespread from west to east today into tonight. Locally heavy downpours will be a good bet and I can’t rule out a clap of thunder.

– Winds will become very gusty today and could top 30mph at times.

– Temps will spike into the 60s ahead of the front then fall quickly into the 40s once the boundary passes through this evening.

– Wednesday looks seasonally chilly with partly sunny skies. Some clouds will increase Thursday and a few sprinkles may be noted in the west and south.

That brings us to the weekend and a complicated scenario that will likely lead to quite a bit of rain around here. A boundary will work into the Ohio Valley late Friday and early Saturday and put the brakes on. This allows for waves of low pressure to work through this region. Each of those waves will give us rounds of rain and some thunder. It won’t  rain the entire weekend, but  I would keep the umbrella with me at all times.

The last in the series of lows is likely to be a strong system that works across our region from late Sunday through Monday or Tuesday. The timing of this is all over the place and that’s just how it is from almost a week out. Big model jumps are the name of the game.

The GFS and European Models develop a monster of a storm that cuts from the lower Mississippi Valley toward the Great Lakes. Both models essentially show severe weather ahead of this system with near blizzard conditions behind it. Both of those models are also hinting at the cutoff low idea I put forth yesterday. Where that storm tracks is still up in the air and won’t be known for several days. Here’s where the European takes the storm by late Tuesday…

The Canadian Model has abandoned the cutting storm in favor of a farther east system…

That’s a pretty wintry look for our region and the NOGAPS has joined in the farther east idea.

Regardless of which idea comes to pass… cold air sweeps in here behind the storm and this sets the ball rolling for winter to become established across most of the country for the middle and end of December.

I will give you another update later today. Have a great Tuesday and take care.

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