Daily Archives: December 9, 2012

Time posted: 6:50 pm

Tracking Storms of All Kinds

Good Sunday evening. Your friendly weatherdude is in a bad sports mood this evening, so I don’t know what I will be able to give you guys with this update. Let’s take it for a spin and see what happens. Maybe another obscure Christmas classic will brighten my mood. 🙂

The first item for discussion is the possibility of thunderstorms this evening and overnight. A TORNADO WATCH is out until 9pm central time for western Kentucky. Here’s the watch outline and the latest warnings…

Follow me on twitter for the latest warnings and information on those storms: @kentuckyweather

This action is ahead of a powerful front that’s moving in from the west. This will drop our temps from the current 60s to the 30s by later Monday afternoon and evening. The models still like a change to a period of light snow for some…

GFS

Some lingering flurries will hang around into Tuesday morning with highs in the 30s. Again… I am NOT expecting much, if any, accumulation.

There’s a system the models are now blowing up across the southeast and it gets THISCLOSE to bringing snow to far southeastern Kentucky on Wednesday. This storm wasn’t on the models a few days ago and really shows you how much this pattern has changed and is a signal of a stormy period ahead.

The next system to impact our weather comes late Friday into Saturday. This comes from energy ejecting out of the southwestern states and the models are terrible in handling those things. The trend on the GFS is to go much colder this weekend than what it had been showing. It now takes the low toward the northern Ohio Valley with cold air rapidly diving in here behind it and actually shows some snow before next weekend is finished.

There is a huge block developing across eastern Canada into Greenland. Storms rarely cut toward a block and usually get shunted southward. I would bet the models trend south with this weekend storm in the coming days.

The European is the model that REALLY struggles with these systems coming from the southwest. It usually is too slow in ejecting the energy eastward and this leads to phasing issues. That looks to be happening with the weekend storm…

Take a look at what follows that storm up early the following week. While I do NOT think the European is correct in its placement or timing.. it’s giving us one heck of a signal of a Ohio Valley winter storm. The model is not alone in showing a signal for that time period and the pattern favors something big cranking up that week. As a matter of fact… the pattern I’m reading has the potential for an extreme event across the eastern half of the country at some point before or around Christmas.

Speaking of Christmas. Let’s enjoy another obscure Christmas classic…

Don’t tell anyone, but I really like that song. 🙂 Enjoy your evening and take care.

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Time posted: 2:54 am

A Lot Of Water Before Some Winter

Good Sunday everyone. Our wet pattern rolls on with additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms on the way. We have a lot more water to go through before we get to some winter later Monday and Tuesday. A 20-30 degree temp drop will buffer the two.

A stalled out front lifts back to the north today as low pressure works across the Ohio Valley. Showers and thunderstorms will be on and off all day long and locally heavy rain is a good bet. Temps today will soar into the low 60s for many areas.

A strong cold front works eastward later tonight and early Monday. A wave of low pressure will be working along this front and that means we start the day with more heavy rain. An additional 1″-2″ of rain is likely today through Monday for many areas of the state.

Much colder air works in quickly behind the front as temps fall into the 30s. Rain will mix with and change to a period of light snow in the west early and that transition will work eastward throughout the day. Here’s the GFS take on it…

One trend in the models of late is to keep the chance for some flakes flying into Tuesday across central and eastern Kentucky.

From a snow perspective, this is not a very big deal. There is the chance we can squeeze out a light accumulation on grassy and elevated surfaces out of all this. The chance isn’t very high, but here’s a set of maps showing the possibility…

Monday and Monday Evening

Monday Night and Tuesday Morning

I’m not sold on very much at all sticking, but we shall see.

Our transition week into winter is off and running and behaving according to plan. Some monster storms are on the table for the central and eastern sections of the country from next weekend through Christmas. I will touch on that part of the equation later today.

Make it a great Sunday and take care.

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