Daily Archives: December 10, 2012

Time posted: 8:42 pm

Quick Thoughts On Next Week

Good Monday evening. Rain,sleet and snow continues to work across the bluegrass state this evening as temps keep dropping. This will lead to black ice overnight as things freeze up with temps in the 20s. Travel tomorrow morning will be tricky for many areas. Throw in another round of flurries and you have a wintry night in the making.

While the flakes fly this evening, I’ve already moved on to where we go from here. Some thoughts:

– The next system to impact our weather moves in for the weekend. Low pressure tracks eastward across the Ohio Valley with a cold rain that may end as some flakes on Sunday or Sunday night.

– The one that continues to get my attention is the low pressure moving on behind it for the middle of next week. This is the one I was tweeting about a few days ago and has the look of a Ohio Valley winter storm. Every model has this storm, but differ in placement. The GFS Ensembles offer up a threatening look…

– That’s a very strong signal from and Ensemble mean from this far away.

– The block developing across eastern Canada and Greenland is HUGE. This could force the storm next week to really wrap up and cut off somewhere across the eastern half of the country. Check out the 500mb Height anomaly from the GFS Ensembles..

That’s how big storms get trapped as they have nowhere to go. We will have to wait and see how it all plays out, but it’s a fairly important signal showing up.

Have a great rest of your evening and take care.


Time posted: 3:52 pm

Monday Afternoon Update

Good Monday afternoon everyone. The big shock to the system is underway as temps continue to drop into the 30s from west to east. Heavy rain is slowly working out and being replaced by a mix of sleet and light snow. That’s a trend that will continue through the rest of the day into the evening hours.

It looks like some light snow showers and flurries will continue into early Tuesday morning. The short range RAP picks up on this lingering moisture…

A coating is possible in some areas. There’s a lot of water out there and with temps dropping below freezing later this evening and overnight, black ice may become a real problem. Keep that in mind.

The next system this works in this weekend and cuts due east across the Ohio Valley. It’s a much colder look than the models had a few days ago and I still don’t think they have settled in yet. What is interesting to note is some of the models try to pop a secondary low just to our east by late Sunday and Monday.

That kind of gets the ball rolling on a series of storms to impact our region next week. The European 500mb map shows that well…

 That is a very active set of maps and one that can really ramp up one of those systems into a Ohio Valley winter storm. What will raise the stakes of that happening is the mega block forming across eastern Canada…

That setup forces systems to drop down the west coast then head eastward under the block. Setups like that can sometimes lead to extreme events as we head closer to Christmas. We shall see.

Speaking of… nothing says Merry Christmas quite like Wham!

I will throw another update your way this evening. Take care.


Time posted: 2:55 am

A Day of Big Changes

Good Monday to one and all. A big change is blowing across the bluegrass state today and this will slap us back into reality. A 30 degree temp drop will be noted today as a cold front moves through here. Throw a wave of low pressure into the mix and you have the recipe for a little bit of light snow.

Temps will drop into the 30s from west to east today as our front pushes in. A wave of low pressure will develop along this front and increase the amount of moisture spreading into the state. Locally heavy rain will be ahead of this boundary and that may cause some local high water issues. The cold air catches the back of the rain and switches it over to a period of light snow. Heres the GFS from this afternoon into tonight..

The NAM is a little more robust with precipitation amounts in the cold sector and even spits out a grassy coating for many areas… 

It will be hard to get anything to stick today because of a wet and warm ground. It may come down fast enough to cover elevated and grassy surfaces for a time.

Snow flurries will be possible overnight into early Tuesday across central and eastern Kentucky. We will need to be on guard for a slick spot or two tonight as readings drop into the 20s.

Looking down the road at our next system. It arrives this weekend and right on cue the models are abandoning this monster lake cutter. They are now taking it eastward across the Ohio Valley and giving us a much colder look. The GFS…

 I wouldn’t be surprised to see it get colder in the coming days. There is likely to be a bigger system that tries to blow up early next week and become a high impact event for the Ohio Valley. The latest GFS has the storm, but is in its typical bias form of having it too far east … 

 I will have more updates later today. Make it a great one and take care.