Daily Archives: December 21, 2012

Time posted: 6:35 pm

Christmas Week Thoughts

Good Friday evening. Snow showers and squalls are finally winding down across eastern Kentucky. Some of these snow bands dropped quite a bit of the white stuff. Several spots reported 4″-5″ of the white stuff. Other areas of central and eastern Kentucky picked the expected coating to an inch.

Let me start out by throwing out a big kudos to the National Weather Service in Jackson. They were ahead of the game by putting out the Winter Weather Advisory for their entire area. I cannot say the same about the other NWS offices. We always talk about IMPACT, IMPACT, IMPACT when issuing advisories. But, that seems to get lost in the shuffle way to often. 76 separate accidents during the morning commute in Lexington is proof enough of the snows impact.

Ok… let’s talk about what happens next.

A weak system moves across the region late Sunday into Christmas Eve. This will produce some light rain that may mix with a little wet snow as Santa arrives Monday night.

Christmas Day looks cold with temps in the 30s with clouds increasing ahead of the next storm to impact the state. This developing winter storm could deliver heavy snow to much of Kentucky and surrounding areas Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Take a look at the European Model…

Euro

The model has been very consistent with that track and several other models have shown something similar. Just for fun… here is what that particular model run shows for snowfall…

Euro 2

Again… that’s one run of one model. Take it with the entire salt shaker. That said… there is growing evidence this storm will put down snow across the state. The blog may go into Threat mode later tonight or Saturday.

While we’re on it… I already have my eye on next potential storm for the end of next week into the following weekend. Winter is here!

Enjoy the evening and take care.

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Time posted: 2:16 am

A Shot of Winter Starts… Winter

Good Friday everyone. We’re kicking off the first day of winter with a nice shot of winter weather. It’s almost as if Mother Nature waited until we flipped the Calendar to start the new season before she let us have some of the good stuff. Snow showers, gusty winds and cold air will rule the day and I’m tracking the possibility of something much bigger next week.

Snow showers and squalls will be fairly widespread early today across central and eastern Kentucky. Anywhere from a coating to an inch or two is likely before the flakes stop flying late today. The winds will whip the snow around so you will see bare spots and spots where mini drifts occur.

Travel conditions this morning will be poor with slick spots and reduced visibility because of the heavy bursts of snow. Winds will continue to gust up to 30-40mph at times and that will make our upper 20s and low 30s feel like single digits at times.

That brings us to two systems I’m tracking for the first half of Christmas week. The first one arrives later Sunday into Christmas Eve. This one will cause light showers to develop during this time and the air may be just cold enough for a light mix… especially in the north. You can see just how close the GFS is with this setup on Christmas Eve…

GFS 2

That map also gives you a look at the next storm developing to our southwest. The models continue to suggest this will become a major storm and impact our weather Christmas night into the middle of next week. The GFS has jumped around a bit of late, but it’s not too out of step with the latest run…

GFS 3

It brings a lead low into the Tennessee Valley before giving way to the primary storm across the Carolinas. The GFS Ensembles suggest something similar…

GFS

The European Model is very similar…

EuroI continue to maintain this setup has the potential for a nasty mix of snow, ice and rain to start before a quick switch to snow. We still have several days to watch the trends in the models. Given the fact this could potentially be hitting on a busy holiday travel day… I won’t hesitate to pull the trigger on a Threat if my confidence grows over the next day or two.

I will have updates later today. Stay safe if you’re out driving and take care.

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