Daily Archives: December 23, 2012

Time posted: 5:48 pm

Sunday Evening Update

Good Sunday evening. We continue to watch a developing winter storm that will have a major impact on the weather across Kentucky and the Ohio Valley Christmas night through Thursday. Snow, rain and wind will combine to make for a nasty trip home from over the river and through the woods.

We are still three days away from the main impact of this storm and a lot can still change. Given the fact that this is a busy travel period, I’m putting out a super early breakdown map. Here’s a first blush look at how this thing may play out…

SpecialA part of western Kentucky is likely to be upgraded to Alert later tonight or Monday. Some random thoughts…

– Our low will develop across the western Gulf and ride into south central Kentucky Christmas night. Rain will break out across central and eastern Kentucky by late Christmas Day.

– That low will put the brakes on and take a hard right toward West Virginia. EXACTLY how far north and west that low is when it takes the turn will be the key on who gets what.

– Western Kentucky should be mainly snow and that’s the area that can pick up more than 4″ of heavy snow.

– Cold air will be directly to the west and northwest of the surface low. That will mean a quick change to snow as it passes through. Snow showers and squalls will then kick in by Wednesday evening into Thursday morning for the central and east.

– Everyone will see snow out of this storm… but amounts will vary greatly from west to east. I won’t be able to put exact numbers on things until we see where that low makes the turn eastward.

– Winds are going to be a big player and gusts may hit 40mph at times.

There will be no rest in forecasting as the next storm will work in here by Late Friday into the weekend. That is likely to result in another threat mode.

I’m traveling this evening and into Christmas Eve and Day. That won’t keep me from updating when I can. Just don’t freak out if I have some long periods without an update. 😉

I will have a big update coming your way later tonight. That one will break things down in greater detail. Have a great evening and take care.

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Time posted: 2:21 am

Winter Storm Threat Continues

Good Sunday to one and all. Our Winter Storm THREAT continues for Christmas Night into Wednesday. I have no changes to my initial line of thinking or areas most at risk of getting in on a round of heavy snow. The entire picture will clear up a bit later today into Monday as the models hone in on the EXACT track of the initial low pressure.

The latest runs of the models have edged back eastward a bit. The GFS is the farthest west of the entire model suite with the lead low into central Kentucky. It now has no friends and that’s usually  a bad sign for that model. The rest of the models take the first low into the Tennessee Valley toward far eastern Kentucky and West Virginia before giving way to a stronger low in the mid atlantic states.

The European Model …

Euro

The GFS Ensembles mean isn’t as far west as the Operational GFS, but it’s farther west than the other models…

GFS

The Canadian Model transfers the energy to the primary low much quicker and offers up a much colder and snowier scenario for many…

Canadian

The UKMET is very similar…

UKMET

The exact track of the lead low will determine who gets in on the heaviest snow and who gets rain to end as snow with only a light accumulation. My initial threat map remains unchanged for now…

Special

I will adjust as needed later today with updates. Lost in the shuffle of all this is the fact this will be another very windy storm. Gusts may reach 40mph at times on Wednesday.

Just think… we get to do this all over again by Friday and Saturday as the next storm approaches. 🙂

Make it a great Sunday and take care.

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