Daily Archives: December 24, 2012

Time posted: 10:11 pm

NAM Snowfall Map

Merry Christmas Eve. The clear trend among the models over the past 24 hours is for a farther south and east tracking storm. That allows the heaviest snow band to set up farther east into Kentucky. You’ve been seeing my tweets about the NAM and I wanted to show you what the model snowfall map looks like through Thursday.

Here ya go…

NAM Snow

The same run of the model also produces a period of sleet and freezing rain for areas along and north of interstate 64 before switching to snow. I am NOT saying the above map is right and I really don’t think it is because I feel there is more adjusting to go on the models.

My point of posting this is to illustrate a clear trend… east.

I will have a full update coming later tonight as we shift into Alert mode. Merry Christmas and take care.

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Time posted: 4:14 pm

Blizzard Watch Western Kentucky

Good early Christmas Eve. A BLIZZARD WATCH has been issued for parts of western Kentucky. Here’s a look at the counties included…

WarningsThe latest run of the NAM continues to trend eastward with the track of our low and puts much more of the state in play for heavy snow. I don’t think the NWS offices in Paducah, Louisville or Wilmington are far enough east with the watches.

Winds with this storm will gust to 40mph or better at times.

More updates to come this evening. Merry Christmas everyone!

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Time posted: 2:02 pm

A Yuletide Update

Good Monday afternoon and Merry Christmas. I wanted to drop by for a quick update on our developing winter storm. The morning model runs of the NAM and GFS continued to trend a bit farther eastward with the lead low across eastern Kentucky.

With that in mind… I made some adjustments to my winter storm update map. This brings our Ohio River counties from Covington to Louisville very close to the highest impact area…

Special

It’s not going to take much more of an eastward adjustment to get more of the state into the highest impact zone. We still have a lot of time and model runs before this thing is set in stone.

As of now… A Winter Storm Watch is now out for parts of western Kentucky…

WarningsI wouldn’t be surprised to see more counties added to that later today.

I will try to get you an update later this evening, but it is Christmas Eve. Given my history… I will probably find the time to sneak one in. 🙂

Merry Christmas and take care.

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Time posted: 2:05 am

Merry Christmas Eve

Good Monday and Merry Christmas Eve. If you asked Santa for a busy winter pattern, it looks like he is going to be delivering the goods over the next few weeks. We have an action packed pattern loaded with storms taking aim at our region. We have one weak system working through today, but all eyes are focused on Christmas Day through Thursday for a monster winter storm that will impact a large chunk of the country.

Let’s start with today and work forward. Scattered showers will roll across the state and, just like Sunday, there’s the potential for a light mix at times… especially in the north. The precipitation ends overnight with temps dropping toward the upper 20s and low 30s.

Christmas Day finds us turning out attention to a developing winter storm across the western Gulf. The setup I’m seeing may produce widespread severe weather and tornadoes across the deep south. Yes.. tornadoes on Christmas Day at the same time that parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas get shut down by a snowstorm.

This storm will then roll northeastward into the Tennessee Valley by Wednesday morning. The recent models have trended with a farther eastward tracking low and a slightly quicker transfer of energy to a low in the mid atlantic states. The GFS didn’t even have this second low until recently and the end result is a slightly colder look…

GFS

The Canadian Model is very similar…Canadian

This thing is far from being etched in stone and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this lead low trend a little farther eastward across the Tennessee Valley. If you want snow… you want this low to track just to the south and east of the state.

For now, I’m not going to make any changes to the threat map I put out last night…

Special

I want to see if the models continue with their eastward trend today before getting much more specific than that. I will get you guys a first call out this afternoon.

Even though I’m not getting into it too much tonight, the system for this weekend continues to look like a snow producer for the entire region.

Merry Christmas Eve and take care.

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