Daily Archives: January 6, 2013

Sunday Evening Update

Good evening, my friends. Extreme is a word you are going to be hearing a lot about in the coming days. We have extreme warmth possible for a few days next week and that will be followed by an extreme blast of winter. Once that blast moves in… it’s going to stick around for a while.

The week ahead will grow milder by the day and will get downright warm by Friday and Saturday. Highs in the 60s look to be a strong possibility and I can’t rule out a few records biting the dust.

That comes crashing down at some point Sunday into Monday as the cold begins to overwhelm the pattern. I can’t want to see the temp maps during that time because a 40-50 degree temp swing is likely to show up.

Once the cold gets in.. it’s game on from there. Check out the deep freeze look on the GFS 850 temp departure map for the middle of the following week…

GFS

Notice how the east coast remains a bit milder than normal as the plains sink into the icebox. That setup would imply a couple of storm systems rolling up the eastern slopes of the Appalachian mountains. Those would, obviously, be snow producers for us.

This would be the tip of the iceberg (pun intended) with the extreme winter setup moving in for the second half of the month into February.

See you guys later tonight. Enjoy the rest of your evening and take care.

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Tracking Some Wild Temp Swings

Good Sunday, everyone. We are rolling toward some major temp swings over the next week and all that is leading us into a period of harsh winter weather for much of the country. That won’t fully kick in into the second half of the month, but that doesn’t mean we won’t have a lot of stuff to track in the week ahead.

Before I get into it all… let me be clear about a few things. I am not always in a position to update the blog and I do have a life outside of weather. This is done on my own free time, so chill out with the emails. I also am going to have to patrol the comments section a little more. This isn’t one of your local message boards where anything goes.

In terms of the weather… we have a weak system crossing the Ohio Valley today and this will produce a few snow showers and flurries. A rain shower or two will also be possible… especially in the south. Cold air will sweep in overnight and readings by daybreak may hit the upper teens in some areas. That sets us up for a sunny and cold Monday with highs in the 30s.

This is where the wild temp swings come into play. The big storm system rolling in from the southwest looks slower and slower. That means Tuesday into Wednesday may feature a little more in the way of dry weather. This also sets us up for a heck of a temp gradient from north to south across the region. As the low finally works in by Thursday afternoon… check out the temps on the GFS…

GFS 3

That shows upper 30s in the north and mid 60s in the south. That’s the first storm that moves across the region. I said there would likely be another next weekend and that it would be the one to start the ball rolling on the cold moving in. Check out the wicked swing on the GFS…GFS

That would have 60s and thunder around here Saturday, followed by temps falling into the 30s with the possibility of snow by Sunday evening. Now… I am only showing you those maps to illustrate the change we are talking about. That switch could come at any point next weekend into early the following week.

The setup will be for the cold to ooze in here slowly at first and that may come with several overrunning snow threats when it does.

The real deal arctic air looks to overtake the pattern toward the end of the week of the 15th…

GFS 2I have little doubt that this winter is going to turn harsh around here during the second half of January into February. Exactly when and how it unfolds will be dealt with as we get closer to next weekend and the following week.

I (and others) have thrown around January and February 1985 as a period similar to the one we are heading into. What’s interesting to note is temps hit the 60s in early January that year and then didn’t hit 40 degrees for the next month or so. We will see if the next few months can get close to mirroring that year.

Make it a great Sunday and take care.

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