Daily Archives: January 8, 2013

Tuesday Evening Update

Good evening, gang. All eyes continue to be focused on the hyper active weather pattern ahead of us. Temps are going to soar this week and may flirt with records by Friday into Saturday. The rounds of showers and thunderstorms will become more common and the rain numbers will really add up though early next week.

The numbers from the GFS continue to look impressive…

GFS Rain

This setup could eventually lead to some high water issues early next week. That’s when the cold air finally blasts in from the west. This will sweep in a significant period of winter weather that will grow more harsh as we go through the rest of the month into February. Just because I’m not making that the focus of the posts doesn’t mean my thoughts have changed. I have to pay much more attention to the heavy rain threat than the winter threat, right now.

Enjoy your evening and take care.

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A Supercharged Pattern

Good Tuesday everyone and thanks for making KWC your home for all things Kentucky weather. I haven’t been updating as much as normal lately because I wanted to rest up for what we have ahead of us… A supercharged pattern that will take a walk on the wild side.

The weather looks pretty calm and quiet over the next few days. Temps today will warm well into the upper 40s to near 50 and into the 50s Wednesday. We will see a little more cloud cover Wednesday and I can’t rule out a stray shower as some cooler air works toward the region from the north.

A strong storm will roll northward along the Mississippi River Valley Wednesday night through Friday. This will bring a surge of mild air into the state on Thursday. The afternoon temp forecast from the GFS continues to show 30s in the far north and mid 60s in the south…

GFS

The mild air will win the battle and push northward through the rest of the day and into Thursday night. Showers and thunderstorms will become common across the state during this time and that carries us into the first half of Friday.

Even milder air moves in later Friday and Saturday and this will send thermometers soaring. Record highs are a possibility across the board. We could see a 70 with enough sunshine.

This is when we start getting in on a pattern that can produce a lot of rain around here. A big trough digs in across the middle of the country and combines with a southeastern ridge to funnel moisture from southwest to northeast into our region.

A cold front moves into the state early Sunday and puts the brakes on. We may see a 24-36 hour period with a 30 degree temp spread from west to east across the state. Waves of low pressure then develop and move along this boundary. Exactly where that front sets up will be crucial in determining how much rain falls around here. The GFS has been emphatic in showing a lot of heavy rain. Check out the numbers from Thursday through Monday…

GFS 5

That’s a setup we don’t want any part of as it could create high water issues across much of the region if it comes to pass.

Again.. that all depends on where the front checks up and how quickly the cold air moves in here. Does that front finally clear the state by Monday? Here’s hoping that’s the case, but not for the wintry reasons.

Whenever the boundary works to our east… additional waves of low pressure will roll along it and the GFS Ensembles show this for the middle and end of next week…

GFS 2I will update later today. Have a great Tuesday and take care.

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