Daily Archives: January 9, 2013

Wednesday Evening Update

Good Evening, gang. Our extreme pattern is just getting underway across the bluegrass state. This includes near record warmth, thunderstorms, possible high water, cold, arctic cold and snow. Never a dull moment around here.

The first area of low pressure will work across the Mississippi Valley Thursday and Friday and will bring showers and scattered storms to the state. Thursday’s temp map will show a big gradient from north to south, but the warm air will win the battle.

Highs Friday will hit the low and mid 60s after scattered storms end. Saturday will see mid and upper 60s with a 70 degree reading possible. That’s when the next storm moves in by Sunday with showers and storms increasing. That will pull a slow moving cold front into the state and this allows for a heavy rain corridor to set up from southwest to northeast…

GFS Rain

The next wave of low pressure is trending colder on the models for Monday night through early Wednesday. That may up the chances for some wintry stuff during this time. The GFS Ensembles continue to advertise this…

GFS

Those same Ensembles show another storm throwing snow our way toward the end of next week…GFS 2The GFS Ensembles are showing what the pattern has been suggesting for a while, now. The operational model runs of the GFS and European are flopping more than a fish out of water. Forecast the pattern and worry about the details later.

Have a great evening and take care.

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Mild Leads To Wild

Good Wednesday everyone. The next week and change of weather could end up being one of the wilder patterns we’ve had around here in a while. There is so much to focus on that I’m having a hard time what to talk about and in what order. Yes, there is THAT much going on.

Clouds will continue to increase today and we could even see a stray shower or two. Temps will be back in the 50s ahead of a storm system moving in for Thursday and Friday. That system will bring an increase in showers and thunderstorms our way during this time and locally heavy rain will be likely for some. Temps will rise from south to north on Thursday and reach 60 in some areas. Friday’s round of 60s is now in jeopardy because of a little more widespread rainfall.

Saturday looks like the warmest day with highs well into the 60s as clouds and moisture move back in. Showers and thunderstorms will become likely Saturday night and Sunday and heavy rainfall will again be possible.

A stalled out front will be draped across the region and this allows for numerous areas of low pressure to work from southwest to northeast. Each of those will bring a ton of rain to the bluegrass and surrounding states. Check out the new GFS numbers through Monday night…

GFS

Here’s what it looks like if you expand that out through next Wednesday…

GFS 2

Now, if those numbers are right, then flooding will be a real concern across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys late this weekend into next week.

We have to watch and see exactly where the front stalls out. The GFS is bringing colder air in a little quicker than some of its previous runs and even develops this storm by the middle of next week…

GFS 3

That would bring a pretty good swath of accumulating snow in here. Again.. you simply can’t put stock in each and every run of the GFS or any model. Forecast the pattern and the details will be ironed out later.

The GFS Ensembles have always been rather gung-ho on the cold and snow threat by the middle and end of next week. The latest run was even more enthusiastic…

GFS 4The Canadian Model is going the route of the GFS Ensembles with the colder scenario. The model even brings -20c 850mb temps in here by next weekend.

Here’s the moral of the story. We better hope the colder models end up being correct because the setup is prime for a major, prolonged rain event that could lead to a decent flood event.

I will update later today. Make it a great one and take care.

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